<p><strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -4.29%) 可能是零利率在 2020 年至 2021 年之间引发的 “一切泡沫” 中的典型代表。该股从约 20 美元飙升至近 400 美元，随后在 2022 年利率飙升并爆破泡沫后跌至 12 美元左右。</p>
<p>不要忽视，Upstart 已经获得了一些令人印象深刻的势头。股价在过去一年中翻了一番多，其中大部分是在美联储最近自疫情爆发以来首次降低经济基准利率之后。</p>
<p>这次对于 Upstart 来说情况是否不同，或者会再次以糟糕的结局收场？</p>
<p>以下是今天 Upstart 是买入、卖出还是持有。</p>
<h2>为什么利率对 Upstart 如此重要</h2>
<p>过去几年美国货币政策异常波动。COVID-19 危机导致美联储将利率设定为零，然后数十年来最高的通货膨胀导致其迅速提高利率，速度是现代史上最快的。我认为这种剧烈变动和市场泡沫可能夸大了 Upstart 的股价波动，但利率确实会影响基础业务。</p>
<p>Upstart 利用人工智能（AI）评估借款人的贷款。虽然个人贷款是 Upstart 的核心业务，但它逐渐扩展到其他产品，如汽车贷款和房屋净值信贷。基本上，Upstart 批准贷款然后将其出售给机构投资者。</p>
<p>低利率对经济有涓涓细流的影响。当利率较低时，消费者可以更便宜地借款，导致更高的贷款需求，这在 2020 年和 2021 年激发了 Upstart 的业务。</p>
<p>该公司盈利且增长迅速：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png"/></p>
<p>UPST 营收（TTM）数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>然后，利率上升得 <strong>如此之快</strong>，以至于贷款需求迅速枯竭。不仅借款人减少，而且投资者也不再愿意购买。Upstart 不得不将它们留在资产负债表上，这损害了公司的财务状况并造成了困境。由于没有地方出售或保留贷款，Upstart 不得不刹车其业务。</p>
<p>那么，为什么 Upstart 再次起飞？最近的降息信号表明最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。虽然利率可能不会回到零，但较低的利率应该有助于 Upstart 再次转动起来。</p>
<h2>尽管有一些积极因素，风险仍然存在</h2>
<p>过去两年很痛苦，但 Upstart 在业务各个方面都在逐渐取得进展。</p>
<p>它逐渐与投资者达成协议，出售其贷款并安排承诺的资本，以帮助防止再次发生困境。Upstart 还不断宣布与合作银行和信用社网络的新成员，表明 Upstart 的技术和借款人看到的潜在价值。最重要的是，Upstart 发布的数据显示，其人工智能技术可以比传统信用评分更好地识别风险借款人。</p>
<p>这一切都很好，但现实是 Upstart 仍然是一只非常投机的股票。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚利率能降到多低。经济数据保持足够稳定，以至于一些人已经称美联储最初的 50 个基点降息是一个错误。如果通货膨胀再次飙升，可能会将经济和市场状况推回导致 Upstart 最初失控的噩梦般情景。</p>
<p>最终，Upstart 必须证明它可以在没有低利率的情况下蓬勃发展。在未来几个季度内，它可以做到，但目前尚未做到。这并非不可能。<strong>Affirm</strong> 有类似的核心业务模式，自从适应更高利率以来，该公司一直蓬勃发展。</p>
<h2>股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</h2>
<p>Upstart 的技术似乎有效，公司已经展示了当足够多的贷款通过其平台流动时可以有多赚钱。尽管如此，由于不可预测的经济因素直接影响 Upstart 的增长和基本面，很难确定股票的公平价值。过去一年，做空者一直在抛售 Upstart；最近的数据显示，超过 30% 的 Upstart 公开股份被做空，因此做空压力可能有助于解释股票近几周的强劲势头。</p>
<p>结论？Upstart 是一个买入，但有一些注意事项。</p>
<p>该股适合风险承受能力强的投资者，他们将等待并看看 Upstart 是否能在未来几个季度实现增长。如果购买，请使用分批定投，以避免不幸的时机选择可能导致您的投资陷入困境。</p>

UPST

<p>Upstart Holdings（UPST）在过去一年中股价翻了一番，这主要得益于美联储降息。该公司利用人工智能评估借款人，但在利率大幅上升时面临挑战，导致贷款需求下降。尽管最近取得了进展并建立了合作伙伴关系，但 Upstart 仍然具有投机性质，风险与经济状况相关。分析师建议风险承受能力强的投资者购买该股，并推荐分批定投以减轻时间风险</p>

<p><strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -4.29%) was arguably the poster child of the &#34;Everything Bubble&#34; that zero-percent interest rates caused between 2020 and 2021. The stock soared from about $20 to nearly $400 before tumbling as low as $12 after interest rates rocketed higher in 2022 and burst the bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -4.29%) 可能是零利率在 2020 年至 2021 年之间引发的 “一切泡沫” 中的典型代表。该股从约 20 美元飙升至近 400 美元，随后在 2022 年利率飙升并爆破泡沫后跌至 12 美元左右。</p>
</div><p>Don't look now, but Upstart has picked up some impressive momentum. Shares have more than doubled over the past year -- most of that after the Federal Reserve recently cut the economy's benchmark interest rate for the first time since the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要忽视，Upstart 已经获得了一些令人印象深刻的势头。股价在过去一年中翻了一番多，其中大部分是在美联储最近自疫情爆发以来首次降低经济基准利率之后。</p>
</div><p>Are things different for Upstart this time, or will this end badly again?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次对于 Upstart 来说情况是否不同，或者会再次以糟糕的结局收场？</p>
</div><p>Here is whether Upstart is a buy, sell, or hold today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是今天 Upstart 是买入、卖出还是持有。</p>
</div><h2>Why interest rates matter so much to Upstart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么利率对 Upstart 如此重要</h2>
</div><p>The past few years have been unusually volatile for U.S. monetary policy. A crisis in COVID-19 caused the Federal Reserve to set rates at zero, and then the highest inflation in decades caused it to jack rates higher, the fastest in modern history. I would argue that this whipsaw and the market bubble probably exaggerated Upstart's price fluctuations, but interest rates do impact the underlying business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年美国货币政策异常波动。COVID-19 危机导致美联储将利率设定为零，然后数十年来最高的通货膨胀导致其迅速提高利率，速度是现代史上最快的。我认为这种剧烈变动和市场泡沫可能夸大了 Upstart 的股价波动，但利率确实会影响基础业务。</p>
</div><p>Upstart uses artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate borrowers for loans. Although personal loans are Upstart's core segment, it has gradually expanded into additional products, like automotive loans and home equity lines of credit. Essentially, Upstart approves loans and then sells them to institutional investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 利用人工智能（AI）评估借款人的贷款。虽然个人贷款是 Upstart 的核心业务，但它逐渐扩展到其他产品，如汽车贷款和房屋净值信贷。基本上，Upstart 批准贷款然后将其出售给机构投资者。</p>
</div><p>Low interest rates have a trickle-down effect on the economy. When interest rates are lower, consumers can borrow more cheaply, causing higher loan demand that electrified Upstart's business in 2020 and 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低利率对经济有涓涓细流的影响。当利率较低时，消费者可以更便宜地借款，导致更高的贷款需求，这在 2020 年和 2021 年激发了 Upstart 的业务。</p>
</div><p>The company was profitable and growing rapidly:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司盈利且增长迅速：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png"/></p>
<p>UPST Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UPST 营收（TTM）数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Then, interest rates rose <em>so fast</em> that loan demand quickly dried up. Not only did fewer borrowers want loans, but investors stopped wanting to buy them. Upstart had to hold them on its balance sheet, which hurt the company's financial health and created a logjam. It had to slam the brakes on its business since it had nowhere to sell or keep the loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，利率上升得 <strong>如此之快</strong>，以至于贷款需求迅速枯竭。不仅借款人减少，而且投资者也不再愿意购买。Upstart 不得不将它们留在资产负债表上，这损害了公司的财务状况并造成了困境。由于没有地方出售或保留贷款，Upstart 不得不刹车其业务。</p>
</div><p>So, why is Upstart taking off again? The recent rate cut signals that the worst is likely over for Upstart. While rates probably won't return to zero, lower rates should help Upstart turn its wheels again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么 Upstart 再次起飞？最近的降息信号表明最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。虽然利率可能不会回到零，但较低的利率应该有助于 Upstart 再次转动起来。</p>
</div><h2>Risks remain despite some positives</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管有一些积极因素，风险仍然存在</h2>
</div><p>The past two years were painful, but Upstart has slowly made progress across its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去两年很痛苦，但 Upstart 在业务各个方面都在逐渐取得进展。</p>
</div><p>It has gradually worked out deals with investors to sell its loans and arrange committed capital to help prevent another log jam from happening. Upstart has also continued announcing new additions to its partner banks and credit unions network, signaling some validity to Upstart's technology and the potential value lenders see in it. Most importantly, Upstart has released data showing that its AI technology can sniff out risky borrowers better than a traditional credit score.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它逐渐与投资者达成协议，出售其贷款并安排承诺的资本，以帮助防止再次发生困境。Upstart 还不断宣布与合作银行和信用社网络的新成员，表明 Upstart 的技术和借款人看到的潜在价值。最重要的是，Upstart 发布的数据显示，其人工智能技术可以比传统信用评分更好地识别风险借款人。</p>
</div><p>That's all good, but the reality is that Upstart remains a very speculative stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一切都很好，但现实是 Upstart 仍然是一只非常投机的股票。</p>
</div><p>It's unclear how low rates can go. Economic data has remained solid enough that some have already called the Federal Reserve's initial 50-basis-point rate cut a mistake. And if inflation spikes again, it could push economic and market conditions back toward the nightmarish scenario that sent Upstart off the rails in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚利率能降到多低。经济数据保持足够稳定，以至于一些人已经称美联储最初的 50 个基点降息是一个错误。如果通货膨胀再次飙升，可能会将经济和市场状况推回导致 Upstart 最初失控的噩梦般情景。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Upstart must prove it can thrive without low rates. It can do that over the coming quarters, but it hasn't done it yet. It's not impossible, either. <strong>Affirm</strong> has a similar core business model, and the company has thrived since adapting to higher rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，Upstart 必须证明它可以在没有低利率的情况下蓬勃发展。在未来几个季度内，它可以做到，但目前尚未做到。这并非不可能。<strong>Affirm</strong> 有类似的核心业务模式，自从适应更高利率以来，该公司一直蓬勃发展。</p>
</div><h2>Is the stock a buy, sell, or hold?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</h2>
</div><p>Upstart's technology seems to work, and the company has shown how profitable it can be when enough loans flow through its platform. That said, it's tough to figure out what a fair value for the stock might be since unpredictable economic factors directly impact Upstart's growth and fundamentals. Short-sellers have piled on Upstart over the past year; recent data indicates that over 30% of Upstart's public shares were short, so a short squeeze could help explain the stock's strong momentum in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的技术似乎有效，公司已经展示了当足够多的贷款通过其平台流动时可以有多赚钱。尽管如此，由于不可预测的经济因素直接影响 Upstart 的增长和基本面，很难确定股票的公平价值。过去一年，做空者一直在抛售 Upstart；最近的数据显示，超过 30% 的 Upstart 公开股份被做空，因此做空压力可能有助于解释股票近几周的强劲势头。</p>
</div><p>The verdict? Upstart is a buy but with some caveats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论？Upstart 是一个买入，但有一些注意事项。</p>
</div><p>The stock is best suited for risk-tolerant investors who will wait and see whether Upstart can deliver growth over the coming quarters. If you buy, use dollar-cost averaging to avoid unlucky timing that could put you deep underwater on your investment if the stock zigzags.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股适合风险承受能力强的投资者，他们将等待并看看 Upstart 是否能在未来几个季度实现增长。如果购买，请使用分批定投，以避免不幸的时机选择可能导致您的投资陷入困境。</p>
</div>

Upstart Holdings: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- Upstart Holdings 的股价在低利率环境下曾大幅上涨，后因利率上升暴跌。  
- 最近利率下调，Upstart 股价回升，显示出一定的增长潜力。  
- 尽管前景乐观，但 Upstart 仍面临市场波动和经济不确定性风险。

Upstart Holdings：是该买入、卖出还是持有？