<p>近年来最大的结构性增长动力之一是人工智能（AI）的出现。去年初人工智能的最新进展引起了轰动，市值达到 1 万亿美元俱乐部的公司名单中，充斥着处于这一下一代技术前沿的企业。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>苹果</strong> 产品，包括 Siri 和地图，一直在拥抱人工智能，而 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 通过将人工智能深度整合到各自的业务运营中，构筑了看似不可逾越的壕沟。<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>台积电</strong> 开发了使人工智能成为可能的芯片。</p>
<p><strong>奈飞</strong>(NFLX 11.09%) 是人工智能的先驱之一，利用尖端算法指导其流媒体推荐和制作选择，然而，该公司已经失宠于一些热衷追逐最新潮事物的人。投资者可能会惊讶地发现，奈飞刚刚交出了又一个增长两位数的季度。市值仅为 3240 亿美元，或许为奈飞加入万亿美元俱乐部还为时过早，然而，股价在过去一年中上涨了超过 100%，过去十年上涨了 1380%，证据表明其上升势头将继续。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2MzEvYS1ob2xvZ3JhcGhpYy1kaXNwbGF5LW9mLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1hYm92ZS1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2MzEvYS1ob2xvZ3JhcGhpYy1kaXNwbGF5LW9mLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1hYm92ZS1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>看涨的结果</h2>
<p>奈飞刚刚公布了其第三季度业绩，各项重要指标均超出预期。98.3 亿美元的营收同比增长 15%，盈利增长强劲，每股收益（EPS）达 5.40 美元，同比飙升 45%。营收得益于强劲的付费订阅增长，增加了 500 多万，增长了 14%。底线受益于扩大的营运利润率，增长了惊人的 720 个基点，达到 29.6%。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，分析师的共识预期是营收为 97.7 亿美元，每股收益为 5.12 美元，伴随着 450 万的新增订户，因此奈飞在各方面都超出预期。</p>
<p>或许更重要的是，管理层预计其增长势头将继续。奈飞预计第四季度营收将达到 101 亿美元，增长近 15%，而每股收益将超过 4.23 美元。</p>
<h2>增长的增量杠杆</h2>
<p>在讨论业绩的电话会议上，奈飞阐明了继续实现强劲增长的计划，重点突出了三个特别重要的机会。</p>
<p>奈飞一直在涉足视频游戏领域，但公司开始看到观众对基于公司不断增长的知识产权库的游戏表现出更大兴趣。管理层特别看好基于《<strong>乌贼游戏</strong>》的游戏。</p>
<p>管理层还在加大对最近成功的现场活动的投入。奈飞正在直播 11 月 15 日迈克·泰森和杰克·保罗之间的拳击比赛。该公司还拥有两场圣诞节 NFL 比赛的独家转播权：超级碗 LVII 冠军堪萨斯城酋长队对匹兹堡钢人队，以及巴尔的摩乌鸦队对休斯顿德州人队。最后，奈飞是 WWE Raw 的新家，这是一档收视率极高的摔跤娱乐节目，每周的节目将于 2025 年 1 月开始。</p>
<p>然而，公司最大的机会在于其不断增长的数字广告业务。奈飞在电话会议中指出，其受众和广告库目前增长速度快于公司利用这一增长的能力。在展示广告的国家，选择最低价格广告套餐的会员季度环比增长 35%，占新增会员的 50%。</p>
<p>公司有一些旨在加速其广告业务的重要举措。首先，奈飞将在本季度开始在加拿大推出其第一方广告服务器，然后在 2025 年在其余广告市场推出。公司还在加大与 <strong>The Trade Desk</strong> 的合作力度，以扩大其广告覆盖范围。奈飞指出，选择广告套餐的会员在观看时间和喜爱的节目方面与其他订户类似，显示观看模式是一致的。管理层预计广告收入将在 2025 年翻番（基数较小）。</p>
<p>这些举措每一项都代表着一个增量增长驱动因素，有助于说明奈飞计划如何继续实现强劲增长。</p>
<h2>达到 1 万亿美元的路径</h2>
<p>奈飞目前的市值为 3230 亿美元，这意味着其股价需要上涨约 207% 才能将其价值推至 1 万亿美元，但在未来十年内有明确的增长路径。根据华尔街的预测，预计奈飞将在 2024 年实现 387.4 亿美元的营收，使其前瞻性市销率（P/S）约为 8。假设其市销率保持不变，奈飞需要将其营收增长到每年约 3570 亿美元，以支撑 1 万亿美元的市值。</p>
<p>华尔街目前预测奈飞未来五年的营收增长约为 26%。如果公司实现这一标准，它 <strong>可能</strong> 在 2035 年实现 1 万亿美元的市值。值得注意的是，奈飞过去十年的年营收增长率为 562%，净收入飙升了 1450%，因此华尔街的展望可能过于保守。此外，正如本季度所示，奈飞有超越华尔街预期的习惯，这也可能缩短这一时间表。</p>
<p>最后，奈飞目前的市盈率约为 39 倍，乍一看可能显得昂贵，但请考虑：华尔街预计奈飞在 2025 年将实现每股收益 23.11 美元，这将代表一个 30 倍的市盈率，与 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 相同。考虑到奈飞强劲的增长记录和巨大的机会，我认为这是为一家预计在未来五年内实现持续两位数增长的公司支付的合理价格。</p>

奈飞

<p>奈飞显示出强劲的增长潜力，最近报告年同比收入增长 15%，达到了 854 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）增长 45%，达到 3.40 美元。该公司新增了超过 500 万订阅用户，超出了分析师的预期。奈飞计划扩大数字广告业务，并利用其游戏和现场活动机会。目前市值为 2,000 亿美元，分析师表示，到 2035 年，奈飞有望加入万亿美元俱乐部，需要股价增长 207%</p>

<p>One of the biggest secular tailwinds in recent years is the advent of artificial intelligence (AI). The latest advancements in AI went viral early last year, and the list of companies in the $1 trillion club is littered with businesses on the leading edge of this next-generation technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来最大的结构性增长动力之一是人工智能（AI）的出现。去年初人工智能的最新进展引起了轰动，市值达到 1 万亿美元俱乐部的公司名单中，充斥着处于这一下一代技术前沿的企业。</p>
</div><p>For example, <strong>Apple</strong> products -- including Siri and Maps -- have always embraced AI, while <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> have developed seemingly impenetrable moats by integrating AI deeply into their respective business operations. <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> have developed the chips that make AI possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>苹果</strong> 产品，包括 Siri 和地图，一直在拥抱人工智能，而 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 通过将人工智能深度整合到各自的业务运营中，构筑了看似不可逾越的壕沟。<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>台积电</strong> 开发了使人工智能成为可能的芯片。</p>
</div><p><strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX 11.09%) is one of the pioneers of AI, using cutting-edge algorithms to inform its streaming recommendations and production choices, yet the company has fallen out of favor with some who are busy chasing the latest shiny new thing. Investors might be surprised to learn that Netflix just delivered another quarter of double-digit growth. With a market cap of just $324 billion, it might seem premature to suggest Netflix is bucking to join its peers in the trillion-dollar club, yet the stock has gained more than 100% over the past year and 1,380% over the past decade, and the evidence suggests its ascent will continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>奈飞</strong>(NFLX 11.09%) 是人工智能的先驱之一，利用尖端算法指导其流媒体推荐和制作选择，然而，该公司已经失宠于一些热衷追逐最新潮事物的人。投资者可能会惊讶地发现，奈飞刚刚交出了又一个增长两位数的季度。市值仅为 3240 亿美元，或许为奈飞加入万亿美元俱乐部还为时过早，然而，股价在过去一年中上涨了超过 100%，过去十年上涨了 1380%，证据表明其上升势头将继续。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2MzEvYS1ob2xvZ3JhcGhpYy1kaXNwbGF5LW9mLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1hYm92ZS1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794631%2Fa-holographic-display-of-stock-charts-above-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Bullish results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看涨的结果</h2>
</div><p>Netflix just reported its third-quarter results and sailed past expectations on every important metric. Revenue of $9.83 billion climbed 15% year over year, generating robust profit growth as earnings per share (EPS) of $5.40 soared 45%. Revenue was fueled by strong paid subscriber growth that jumped by more than 5 million, an increase of 14%. The bottom line was driven higher by an expanding operating margin that increased by an incredible 720 basis points to 29.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞刚刚公布了其第三季度业绩，各项重要指标均超出预期。98.3 亿美元的营收同比增长 15%，盈利增长强劲，每股收益（EPS）达 5.40 美元，同比飙升 45%。营收得益于强劲的付费订阅增长，增加了 500 多万，增长了 14%。底线受益于扩大的营运利润率，增长了惊人的 720 个基点，达到 29.6%。</p>
</div><p>For context, analysts' consensus estimates were calling for revenue of $9.77 billion and EPS of $5.12, accompanied by subscriber additions of 4.5 million, so Netflix beat across the board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，分析师的共识预期是营收为 97.7 亿美元，每股收益为 5.12 美元，伴随着 450 万的新增订户，因此奈飞在各方面都超出预期。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps more importantly, management expects its growth streak to continue. Netflix is guiding for fourth-quarter revenue of $10.1 billion, up nearly 15%, while EPS of $4.23 would more than double.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许更重要的是，管理层预计其增长势头将继续。奈飞预计第四季度营收将达到 101 亿美元，增长近 15%，而每股收益将超过 4.23 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Incremental levers for growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长的增量杠杆</h2>
</div><p>On the conference call to discuss the results, Netflix laid out plans to continue its impressive growth, highlighting three particularly significant opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在讨论业绩的电话会议上，奈飞阐明了继续实现强劲增长的计划，重点突出了三个特别重要的机会。</p>
</div><p>Netflix has been dabbling in video games for some time now, but the company is beginning to see greater interest from its audience for the games based on the company's growing library of intellectual property. Management is particularly excited about the title based on <em>Squid Game</em>, the company's most-watched series.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞一直在涉足视频游戏领域，但公司开始看到观众对基于公司不断增长的知识产权库的游戏表现出更大兴趣。管理层特别看好基于《<strong>乌贼游戏</strong>》的游戏。</p>
</div><p>Management is also leaning into its recent successes with live events. Netflix is live-streaming a boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul on Nov. 15. The company also has exclusive rights to two NFL games on Christmas Day: The Super Bowl LVII-winning Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Houston Texans. Finally, Netflix is the new home of WWE Raw, the highly rated wrestling entertainment show, with weekly episodes beginning in January 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层还在加大对最近成功的现场活动的投入。奈飞正在直播 11 月 15 日迈克·泰森和杰克·保罗之间的拳击比赛。该公司还拥有两场圣诞节 NFL 比赛的独家转播权：超级碗 LVII 冠军堪萨斯城酋长队对匹兹堡钢人队，以及巴尔的摩乌鸦队对休斯顿德州人队。最后，奈飞是 WWE Raw 的新家，这是一档收视率极高的摔跤娱乐节目，每周的节目将于 2025 年 1 月开始。</p>
</div><p>However, the company's biggest opportunity is its growing digital advertising business. Netflix noted during the call that its audience and ad inventory are currently growing faster than the company's ability to capitalize on that growth. Members signing up for the lowest-priced ad tier increased 35% quarter over quarter and accounted for 50% of new members in the countries where Netflix shows advertising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，公司最大的机会在于其不断增长的数字广告业务。奈飞在电话会议中指出，其受众和广告库目前增长速度快于公司利用这一增长的能力。在展示广告的国家，选择最低价格广告套餐的会员季度环比增长 35%，占新增会员的 50%。</p>
</div><p>The company has a couple of important initiatives that are designed to accelerate its ads business. First, Netflix is launching its first-party ad server, beginning in Canada this quarter, then in the rest of its advertising markets in 2025. The company is also leaning into its partnership with <strong>The Trade Desk</strong> to expand its advertising reach. Netflix noted that ad-tier members are similar to other subscribers in terms of hours watched and preferred titles, which shows viewing patterns are consistent. Management expects ad revenue to double (off a small base) in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司有一些旨在加速其广告业务的重要举措。首先，奈飞将在本季度开始在加拿大推出其第一方广告服务器，然后在 2025 年在其余广告市场推出。公司还在加大与 <strong>The Trade Desk</strong> 的合作力度，以扩大其广告覆盖范围。奈飞指出，选择广告套餐的会员在观看时间和喜爱的节目方面与其他订户类似，显示观看模式是一致的。管理层预计广告收入将在 2025 年翻番（基数较小）。</p>
</div><p>Each of these initiatives represents an incremental growth driver, which helps illustrate how Netflix plans to continue its robust growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些举措每一项都代表着一个增量增长驱动因素，有助于说明奈飞计划如何继续实现强劲增长。</p>
</div><h2>The path to $1 trillion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>达到 1 万亿美元的路径</h2>
</div><p>Netflix currently has a market cap of $323 billion, which means it will take stock price gains of roughly 207% to drive its value to $1 trillion, but there's a clear path for growth over the coming decade. According to Wall Street, Netflix is expected to generate revenue of $38.74 billion in 2024, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 8. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Netflix would have to grow its revenue to roughly $357 billion annually to support a $1 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞目前的市值为 3230 亿美元，这意味着其股价需要上涨约 207% 才能将其价值推至 1 万亿美元，但在未来十年内有明确的增长路径。根据华尔街的预测，预计奈飞将在 2024 年实现 387.4 亿美元的营收，使其前瞻性市销率（P/S）约为 8。假设其市销率保持不变，奈飞需要将其营收增长到每年约 3570 亿美元，以支撑 1 万亿美元的市值。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is currently forecasting revenue growth for Netflix of about 26% annually over the next five years. If the company achieves that benchmark, it <em>could</em> achieve a $1 trillion market cap as soon as 2035. It's worth noting that Netflix has grown its annual revenue by 562% over the past decade, and its net income has soared 1,450%, so Wall Street's outlook could well be conservative. Furthermore, as this quarter illustrates, Netflix has a habit of outpacing Wall Street's expectations, which could also shave years off this timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街目前预测奈飞未来五年的营收增长约为 26%。如果公司实现这一标准，它 <strong>可能</strong> 在 2035 年实现 1 万亿美元的市值。值得注意的是，奈飞过去十年的年营收增长率为 562%，净收入飙升了 1450%，因此华尔街的展望可能过于保守。此外，正如本季度所示，奈飞有超越华尔街预期的习惯，这也可能缩短这一时间表。</p>
</div><p>Finally, Netflix is currently selling for roughly 39 times earnings, which might seem expensive at first glance, but consider this: Wall Street expects Netflix to generate EPS of $23.11 in 2025, which would represent a multiple of 30 -- the same as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. Considering Netflix's strong track record of growth and its significant opportunity, I'd say that's a fair price to pay for a company expected to generate consistent double-digit growth over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，奈飞目前的市盈率约为 39 倍，乍一看可能显得昂贵，但请考虑：华尔街预计奈飞在 2025 年将实现每股收益 23.11 美元，这将代表一个 30 倍的市盈率，与 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 相同。考虑到奈飞强劲的增长记录和巨大的机会，我认为这是为一家预计在未来五年内实现持续两位数增长的公司支付的合理价格。</p>
</div>

Meet the Unstoppable Stock That Could Join Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in the $1 Trillion Club by 2035

- Netflix 第三季度营收 98.3 亿美元，同比增长 15%，超出预期。  
- 预计第四季度营收将达 101 亿美元，增长近 15%。  
- Netflix 正在扩展广告业务，预计 2025 年广告收入将翻倍。

了解这只势不可挡的股票，它可能在 2035 年加入苹果、英伟达、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta 和台积电的 1 万亿美元俱乐部