<p>又一个季度，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) 备受期待的财报即将发布。</p>
<p>公司将于 10 月 23 日向股东更新其财务报表，涵盖截至 9 月底的三个月。投资者将关注收入、利润率和现金流的变化，以及这对特斯拉业务健康状况意味着什么。</p>
<p>在本月初备受瞩目的&#34;我们，机器人&#34;活动表现平平，导致股价下跌，投资者期待特斯拉通过最新的财报发布取得成功。股价比 2021 年创下的历史最高点下跌了 46%，电动汽车（EV）和可再生能源巨头的收入增长放缓。也许对于那些专注于长期投资的人来说，这是一个买入机会。</p>
<p>投资者是否应该在 10 月 23 日特斯拉发布财报前购买特斯拉股票？</p>
<h2>交付增长放缓，利润缩水</h2>
<p>在过去几个季度，特斯拉的电动汽车产品线交付增长放缓。第三季度交付量为 46.3 万辆，高于去年同期的 43.5 万辆，但低于去年 12 月报告的历史最高季度 48.5 万辆。由于其车辆价格昂贵，公司在达到如此大规模后难以增长。过去几年中，唯一推出的新车型--Cybertruck--是一款昂贵的利基产品，也没有帮助。</p>
<p>为了促销，特斯拉大幅降低了车辆的平均售价。您可以直接在其网站上看到，也可以从二手车价格中看出。如今，二手特斯拉车辆的平均价格为 32,000 美元，而在 2023 年初超过 50,000 美元。</p>
<p>下降的售价影响了特斯拉的毛利率，随之影响了底线利润率。上季度毛利率仅为 18%，而 2022 年初接近 28%。运营利润率也呈同样趋势，上季度仅为 8.73%。</p>
<p>利润率的下降使特斯拉的自由现金流逆转。不到两年前，自由现金流超过 75 亿美元。在过去 12 个月中，它已降至 17 亿美元，并在 2024 年上半年为负。如果公司不小心让这一趋势继续下去，很快将开始大量消耗现金。</p>
<h2>机器人和自动驾驶汽车怎么样？</h2>
<p>在 10 月 10 日的&#34;我们，机器人&#34;活动中，特斯拉基本上宣布从传统汽车制造转向机器人技术和自动驾驶汽车。它正在投资一款名为 Cybercab 的产品，将纯粹作为出租车，但没有司机。它正在打造一个名为 Optimus 的人形机器人来处理琐碎任务。它正在通过其 Dojo 计算机构建人工智能（AI）基础设施和软件。这些似乎是公司的主要关注点，而不是更新其车辆。</p>
<p>但可能会出现问题。汽车交付量没有显示出太多增长，这将影响特斯拉的自由现金流生成，而这种自由现金流正是推动投资于人工智能、机器人技术和自动驾驶汽车的资金来源。</p>
<p>这些项目远未达到商业可行性。在最好的情况下，它们将在几年内对特斯拉产生利润，而十年的时间表更有可能。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去十年一直在说自动驾驶汽车只有几年的时间，但他一直错误地估计需要多长时间。再次押注他乐观的时间表可能是不明智的。</p>
<p>如果特斯拉将所有资源投入这三项尖端技术，并且它们的上市时间比投资者预期的时间长，我们可能会看到公司财务状况进一步恶化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a7d548221c0c72252e4d69fa1b46327c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a7d548221c0c72252e4d69fa1b46327c.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 自由现金流数据，来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>没有迹象表明电动汽车部门准备迈出下一步，尤其是因为我们在第三季度再次看到交付数字疲软。</p>
<h2>坚持依据数字判断</h2>
<p>谈到特斯拉，有很多竞争性叙事。公司涉足多个领域，并喜欢为其产品发布做秀，但投资者最好忽略华丽外表，坚持依据数字判断。</p>
<p>特斯拉的市值约为 7000 亿美元。过去 12 个月，它创造了 17 亿美元的自由现金流和 72 亿美元的营业收入。这意味着其以 400 倍的市盈率交易，以 96 倍的市盈率交易。无论公司有多雄心勃勃，这都是一个过于昂贵的价格，用于推动市值达到 1 万亿美元的股票。</p>
<p>大多数股票的市盈率低于 30 倍。即使是最好的成长股，通常也只交易于 40 至 50 倍的市盈率。特斯拉的交易远高于这个水平，并且刚刚发布了令人失望的车辆交付数据。</p>
<p>在特斯拉 Q3 财报发布前，没有理由购买特斯拉股票。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉即将于 10 月 23 日发布的财报备受期待，投资者们将评估公司的财务状况，因为营收增长放缓和利润率下降。交付量略有增加，达到了 46.3 万辆，但仍低于去年的峰值。公司已降低车辆价格，影响了毛利率，降至 18%。特斯拉的重点已转向机器人技术和自动驾驶汽车，但这些项目尚未具备商业可行性。特斯拉的市值约为 1 万亿美元，股价相当于其自由现金流的 400 倍，引发潜在投资者的担忧</p>

<p>Another quarter, another highly anticipated earnings report from <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.09%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>又一个季度，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) 备受期待的财报即将发布。</p>
</div><p>The company will be giving an update on its financial statements to shareholders on Oct. 23, covering the three months ending in September. Investors will be watching how revenue, profit margin, and cash flow have changed and what it means for Tesla's business health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司将于 10 月 23 日向股东更新其财务报表，涵盖截至 9 月底的三个月。投资者将关注收入、利润率和现金流的变化，以及这对特斯拉业务健康状况意味着什么。</p>
</div><p>After the hyped-up &#34;We, Robot&#34; event earlier this month fell flat and tanked the stock, investors are looking for Tesla to produce a win with this latest earnings release. The stock is off 46% from all-time high set in 2021, with revenue growth slowing down for the electric vehicle (EV) and renewable energy giant. Perhaps this is a buying opportunity for those focused on the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本月初备受瞩目的&#34;我们，机器人&#34;活动表现平平，导致股价下跌，投资者期待特斯拉通过最新的财报发布取得成功。股价比 2021 年创下的历史最高点下跌了 46%，电动汽车（EV）和可再生能源巨头的收入增长放缓。也许对于那些专注于长期投资的人来说，这是一个买入机会。</p>
</div><p>Should investors buy Tesla stock before its earnings report on Oct. 23?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者是否应该在 10 月 23 日特斯拉发布财报前购买特斯拉股票？</p>
</div><h2>Slowing deliveries growth, shrinking profits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交付增长放缓，利润缩水</h2>
</div><p>In the last few quarters, Tesla has seen slowing growth in deliveries for its EV product lines. Deliveries were 463,000 in the third quarter, up from 435,000 in the year-ago quarter but off from an all-time high quarterly figure of 485,000 reported in December last year. The company has struggled to grow after reaching such a large scale due to how expensive its vehicles are. It also doesn't help that its only new model released in the last few years -- the Cybertruck -- is an expensive niche product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几个季度，特斯拉的电动汽车产品线交付增长放缓。第三季度交付量为 46.3 万辆，高于去年同期的 43.5 万辆，但低于去年 12 月报告的历史最高季度 48.5 万辆。由于其车辆价格昂贵，公司在达到如此大规模后难以增长。过去几年中，唯一推出的新车型--Cybertruck--是一款昂贵的利基产品，也没有帮助。</p>
</div><p>In order to move metal, Tesla has greatly reduced the average selling price of its vehicles. You can see this directly on its website but also downstream in used car prices. Used Tesla vehicles cost an average of $32,000 today vs. over $50,000 at the start of 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了促销，特斯拉大幅降低了车辆的平均售价。您可以直接在其网站上看到，也可以从二手车价格中看出。如今，二手特斯拉车辆的平均价格为 32,000 美元，而在 2023 年初超过 50,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Declining selling prices have impacted Tesla's gross margin and subsequently its bottom-line profit margins. Gross margin was just 18% last quarter compared to close to 28% at the beginning of 2022. Operating margin has followed the same direction and was just 8.73% last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下降的售价影响了特斯拉的毛利率，随之影响了底线利润率。上季度毛利率仅为 18%，而 2022 年初接近 28%。运营利润率也呈同样趋势，上季度仅为 8.73%。</p>
</div><p>Shrinking margins have put Tesla's free cash flow in reverse. Free cash flow was over $7.5 billion less than two years ago. Over the last 12 months, it has fallen to $1.7 billion and was negative in the first six months of 2024. If the company isn't careful and lets this trend continue, it will begin to burn a lot of cash soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利润率的下降使特斯拉的自由现金流逆转。不到两年前，自由现金流超过 75 亿美元。在过去 12 个月中，它已降至 17 亿美元，并在 2024 年上半年为负。如果公司不小心让这一趋势继续下去，很快将开始大量消耗现金。</p>
</div><h2>What about robots and self-driving cars?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机器人和自动驾驶汽车怎么样？</h2>
</div><p>With its &#34;We, Robot&#34; event on Oct. 10, Tesla essentially announced a pivot from focusing on traditional automotive manufacturing to robotics and autonomous vehicles. It is investing in a product called the Cybercab that will act purely as a taxi but without a driver. It is building a humanoid robot called Optimus to handle menial tasks. It is building artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and software with its Dojo computer. These seem to be the company's main focus instead of updating its vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 10 月 10 日的&#34;我们，机器人&#34;活动中，特斯拉基本上宣布从传统汽车制造转向机器人技术和自动驾驶汽车。它正在投资一款名为 Cybercab 的产品，将纯粹作为出租车，但没有司机。它正在打造一个名为 Optimus 的人形机器人来处理琐碎任务。它正在通过其 Dojo 计算机构建人工智能（AI）基础设施和软件。这些似乎是公司的主要关注点，而不是更新其车辆。</p>
</div><p>But a problem may occur. Deliveries for cars aren't showing much growth, which will impact Tesla's free-cash-flow generation, and this free cash flow is what is fueling the investments into AI, robotics, and autonomous vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但可能会出现问题。汽车交付量没有显示出太多增长，这将影响特斯拉的自由现金流生成，而这种自由现金流正是推动投资于人工智能、机器人技术和自动驾驶汽车的资金来源。</p>
</div><p>These projects are nowhere near close to commercial viability. In a best-case scenario, they will be profit-accretive to Tesla within a few years, and a decade-long timeline is more likely. CEO Elon Musk has been saying self-driving cars are just a few years away for the last decade and has continued to be wrong about how long it will take. It may be unwise to bet on his optimistic timelines yet again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些项目远未达到商业可行性。在最好的情况下，它们将在几年内对特斯拉产生利润，而十年的时间表更有可能。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去十年一直在说自动驾驶汽车只有几年的时间，但他一直错误地估计需要多长时间。再次押注他乐观的时间表可能是不明智的。</p>
</div><p>If Tesla pushes all of its resources into these three cutting-edge technologies and they take longer to come to market than investors expect, we could see further deterioration in the company's financials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果特斯拉将所有资源投入这三项尖端技术，并且它们的上市时间比投资者预期的时间长，我们可能会看到公司财务状况进一步恶化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a7d548221c0c72252e4d69fa1b46327c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a7d548221c0c72252e4d69fa1b46327c.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA Free Cash Flow data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 自由现金流数据，来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>There are no indications that the EV division is ready to take the next step forward, especially because we already saw weak delivery numbers yet again in Q3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有迹象表明电动汽车部门准备迈出下一步，尤其是因为我们在第三季度再次看到交付数字疲软。</p>
</div><h2>Stick to what the numbers tell you</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>坚持依据数字判断</h2>
</div><p>When it comes to Tesla, there are a lot of competing narratives. The company has its hands in a lot of pies and loves to put on a good show for its product reveals, but investors are best served by ignoring the flash and sticking to the numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到特斯拉，有很多竞争性叙事。公司涉足多个领域，并喜欢为其产品发布做秀，但投资者最好忽略华丽外表，坚持依据数字判断。</p>
</div><p>Tesla trades at a market cap around $700 billion. It generated $1.7 billion in free cash flow and $7.2 billion in operating income over the last 12 months. That means it's trading at 400 times its trailing free cash flow and 96 times its trailing operating income. No matter how ambitious the company is, this is much too expensive a price to pay for a stock pushing a market cap of $1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的市值约为 7000 亿美元。过去 12 个月，它创造了 17 亿美元的自由现金流和 72 亿美元的营业收入。这意味着其以 400 倍的市盈率交易，以 96 倍的市盈率交易。无论公司有多雄心勃勃，这都是一个过于昂贵的价格，用于推动市值达到 1 万亿美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>Most stocks trade at below 30 times earnings. Even the best growth stocks typically only trade at 40 to 50 times earnings. Tesla is trading much higher than this and just posted underwhelming vehicle delivery figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数股票的市盈率低于 30 倍。即使是最好的成长股，通常也只交易于 40 至 50 倍的市盈率。特斯拉的交易远高于这个水平，并且刚刚发布了令人失望的车辆交付数据。</p>
</div><p>There's no reason to buy Tesla stock ahead of its Q3 earnings report on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特斯拉 Q3 财报发布前，没有理由购买特斯拉股票。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before Oct. 23?

- 特斯拉将于 10 月 23 日发布财报，投资者关注收入和利润变化。  
- 第三季度交付量为 463,000 辆，增长放缓，毛利率降至 18%。  
- 投资者应谨慎，特斯拉股价高于市场平均水平，财务状况可能进一步恶化。

你是否应该在 10 月 23 日之前购买特斯拉的股票？