<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) 上周举办了一场名为&#34;我们，机器人&#34;的活动，展示了其原型自动驾驶车辆和人形机器人。投资者感到失望。截至本文撰写时，特斯拉股价在过去五个交易日下跌了 10%，华尔街对&#34;Cybercab&#34;和特斯拉 Optimus 机器人对公司利润的实质性影响日益持怀疑。</p>
<p>和往常一样，这次活动伴随着很多喧嚣、戏剧性和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的承诺。公司会兑现他所说的吗？你应该买入股票的低点吗？现在是时候分析这些新产品的潜力，以及它们是否能像马斯克所预言的那样为特斯拉的市值增加数万亿美元。</p>
<h2>更多马斯克的承诺</h2>
<p>特斯拉已经致力于自动驾驶车辆技术超过十年。马斯克多次承诺公司即将在几年内为特斯拉车辆带来全面自动驾驶软件。最著名的一次是在 2019 年，他表示到 2020 年底将有 100 万辆&#34;机器人出租车&#34;上路。这并没有发生。</p>
<p>上周的活动有着类似的感觉。马斯克乘坐特斯拉称之为 Cybercab 的出租车出席活动，这是一辆外观 futurist 的出租车，车门垂直开启。他们还展示了同款风格的自动驾驶货车原型。据公司称，Cybercab 将于 2026 年投入生产，但对货车的时间表尚不明确。特斯拉希望制造这些车辆和相关的自动驾驶软件，以进攻 <strong>Uber</strong> 的业务，允许车主和/或特斯拉自身利用这一车队运营无人驾驶的拼车网络。如果成功，这有潜力大幅降低出租车费用。</p>
<p>除了机器人车辆，特斯拉还大力强调其对特斯拉 Optimus 机器人的研究，这是一个看起来像人类的机器人。特斯拉声称该机器人将能够完成您提出的任何任务。按照马斯克的典型风格，他对它能为特斯拉带来多少价值持乐观态度，预计仅从 Optimus 产品线就能为其市值增加高达 25 万亿美元。目前尚不清楚他是基于何种分析得出这一结论。</p>
<h2>实用性有待观察</h2>
<p>在涉及机器人技术时，特斯拉提出了很多数字：数百万辆机器人出租车；数万亿美元的市值。公司也发表了很多言论。然而，目前并没有太多实际产品以实际销售给客户。</p>
<p>如果我是特斯拉的投资者，我会担心这只是又一个宣布产品最终被推迟的活动。特斯拉似乎把未来押注在人工智能（AI）、机器人技术和自动驾驶车辆上。但到目前为止，它只是建造了原型。其当前的全自动驾驶软件有点名不副实，因为仍需要人类操作车辆。与拥有在美国各城市运营实际机器人出租车许可的 Waymo 不同，特斯拉的自动驾驶网络目前仅仅是一个构想。</p>
<p>对于 Optimus 机器人原型也应该有所担忧。活动后的几天里，有消息称机器人在与客人互动时是由人类远程控制的。这与马斯克承诺的自主机器人并不接近；这也在误导投资者和公司最大的客户。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 营业收入（TTM）数据来源：YCharts</p>
<h2>因为机器人出租车和人形机器人而购买特斯拉股票吗？</h2>
<p>特斯拉股票在长期内表现出色。自 2021 年底创下历史最高点以来已下跌了 47%。鉴于围绕这些人工智能和机器人产品的炒作，更不用说庞大的电动汽车（EV）和电池存储部门，您可能认为在特斯拉股票最近下跌后买入是明智的。</p>
<p>我认为这是基于尚未兑现的承诺的错误想法。根据活动中关于机器人出租车和 Optimus 机器人的信息，这些产品在未来至少五年内，甚至永远都不太可能对特斯拉的业务产生重大影响。这使投资者只能依靠当前的电动汽车和电池存储业务。</p>
<p>对于这些领域也不应抱有太多乐观态度。由于电动汽车供应大幅增加和利润率受挤压，特斯拉的营业收入和自由现金流在最近几个季度急剧下降。在过去 12 个月中，它仅产生了 17 亿美元的自由现金流。与其 6860 亿美元的市值相比，这是一个微不足道的数字。</p>
<p>在&#34;我们，机器人&#34;活动之前，特斯拉股票看起来被高估了。由于至少几年内没有新产品推出，技术尚未得到验证，即使在活动之后，它仍然被高估。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉最近举办的 “我们，机器人” 活动令投资者感到失望，导致股价在五天内下跌了 10%。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克展示了自动驾驶汽车和 Optimus Bot 原型，但人们对它们对公司财务状况的影响持怀疑态度。尽管有雄心勃勃的预测，但人们仍然担忧这些产品的实用性和时间表，许多仍处于原型阶段。分析师指出，考虑到最近营业收入和自由现金流的下降，目前的电动汽车和电池储存业务可能无法维持乐观情绪</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) hosted an event called &#34;We, Robot&#34; last week to display its prototype-autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. Investors were disappointed. Tesla shares are now down 10% in the last five trading days (as of this writing) as Wall Street gets increasingly skeptical on how material the &#34;Cybercab&#34; and Tesla Optimus Bots will be to the company's bottom line anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) 上周举办了一场名为&#34;我们，机器人&#34;的活动，展示了其原型自动驾驶车辆和人形机器人。投资者感到失望。截至本文撰写时，特斯拉股价在过去五个交易日下跌了 10%，华尔街对&#34;Cybercab&#34;和特斯拉 Optimus 机器人对公司利润的实质性影响日益持怀疑。</p>
</div><p>As usual, this event came with a lot of fanfare, drama, and promises from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Will the company make good on what he said? And should you buy the dip on the stock? Time to analyze the potential of these new products and whether they can add trillions of dollars to Tesla's market cap as Musk has prophesized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>和往常一样，这次活动伴随着很多喧嚣、戏剧性和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的承诺。公司会兑现他所说的吗？你应该买入股票的低点吗？现在是时候分析这些新产品的潜力，以及它们是否能像马斯克所预言的那样为特斯拉的市值增加数万亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>More Musk promises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更多马斯克的承诺</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has been working on self-driving vehicle technology for more than a decade. Musk has promised numerous times that the company was on the verge of bringing full self-driving software to Tesla vehicles, usually within a few years. Most famously -- or perhaps infamously -- he said in 2019 that there would be 1 million &#34;robotaxis&#34; on the road by the end of 2020. This didn't happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉已经致力于自动驾驶车辆技术超过十年。马斯克多次承诺公司即将在几年内为特斯拉车辆带来全面自动驾驶软件。最著名的一次是在 2019 年，他表示到 2020 年底将有 100 万辆&#34;机器人出租车&#34;上路。这并没有发生。</p>
</div><p>Last week had a similar feel. Musk came to the event in what Tesla is calling a Cybercab, a futuristic-looking taxi with doors that open vertically. They also debuted a prototype for a self-driving van in the same style. According to the company, the Cybercab will go into production in 2026, but it gave no timeline for the van. Tesla wants to build these vehicles and the associated self-driving software to attack <strong>Uber</strong>'s business, allowing owners and/or Tesla itself to use this fleet of vehicles to operate a ride-sharing network with zero human drivers. If successful, it has the potential to radically lower the cost of taxi rides.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周的活动有着类似的感觉。马斯克乘坐特斯拉称之为 Cybercab 的出租车出席活动，这是一辆外观 futurist 的出租车，车门垂直开启。他们还展示了同款风格的自动驾驶货车原型。据公司称，Cybercab 将于 2026 年投入生产，但对货车的时间表尚不明确。特斯拉希望制造这些车辆和相关的自动驾驶软件，以进攻 <strong>Uber</strong> 的业务，允许车主和/或特斯拉自身利用这一车队运营无人驾驶的拼车网络。如果成功，这有潜力大幅降低出租车费用。</p>
</div><p>On top of the robotic vehicles, Tesla made a big push to highlight its research into the Tesla Optimus Bot, which is a robot that looks like a human. Tesla claims the robot will be able to do any task you ask it to. In typical Musk fashion, he was optimistic about how much value it could bring to Tesla, projecting upwards of $25 trillion in value added to its market cap just from the Optimus product line. It is unclear what analysis led him to come to this conclusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了机器人车辆，特斯拉还大力强调其对特斯拉 Optimus 机器人的研究，这是一个看起来像人类的机器人。特斯拉声称该机器人将能够完成您提出的任何任务。按照马斯克的典型风格，他对它能为特斯拉带来多少价值持乐观态度，预计仅从 Optimus 产品线就能为其市值增加高达 25 万亿美元。目前尚不清楚他是基于何种分析得出这一结论。</p>
</div><h2>Practicality remains to be seen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>实用性有待观察</h2>
</div><p>There are a lot of numbers thrown around by Tesla when it comes to robotics: Millions of robotaxis; trillions of dollars in market value. There is also a lot of bark coming from the company. However, there is not much bite in the form of real products getting sold to customers today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在涉及机器人技术时，特斯拉提出了很多数字：数百万辆机器人出租车；数万亿美元的市值。公司也发表了很多言论。然而，目前并没有太多实际产品以实际销售给客户。</p>
</div><p>If I was a Tesla investor, I would be worried that this is just another event with announcements for products that eventually get delayed. Tesla seems to be betting its future on artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and autonomous vehicles. But so far it's only built prototypes. Its current full self-driving software is a bit of a misnomer in that it still needs humans operating the vehicle. Unlike Waymo, which has licenses to operate a fleet of actual robotaxis in cities across the United States, Tesla's self-driving network is nothing more than an idea right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我是特斯拉的投资者，我会担心这只是又一个宣布产品最终被推迟的活动。特斯拉似乎把未来押注在人工智能（AI）、机器人技术和自动驾驶车辆上。但到目前为止，它只是建造了原型。其当前的全自动驾驶软件有点名不副实，因为仍需要人类操作车辆。与拥有在美国各城市运营实际机器人出租车许可的 Waymo 不同，特斯拉的自动驾驶网络目前仅仅是一个构想。</p>
</div><p>There should also be concerns about the Optimus Bot prototype. It has come out in the days following the event that the bots were being remote-controlled by humans when interacting with guests. This is not exactly close to the autonomous robot that Musk has promised; it's also misleading investors and the company's biggest customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 Optimus 机器人原型也应该有所担忧。活动后的几天里，有消息称机器人在与客人互动时是由人类远程控制的。这与马斯克承诺的自主机器人并不接近；这也在误导投资者和公司最大的客户。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA Operating Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 营业收入（TTM）数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Tesla because of Robotaxis and humanoid bots?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>因为机器人出租车和人形机器人而购买特斯拉股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock has done phenomenal over the long term. It is also down 47% from all-time highs set in late 2021. Given all the hype around these AI and robotics products -- not to mention the huge electric vehicle (EV) and battery-storage divisions -- you might think it is smart to buy the dip on Tesla stock after its recent fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉股票在长期内表现出色。自 2021 年底创下历史最高点以来已下跌了 47%。鉴于围绕这些人工智能和机器人产品的炒作，更不用说庞大的电动汽车（EV）和电池存储部门，您可能认为在特斯拉股票最近下跌后买入是明智的。</p>
</div><p>I think this is misguided thinking based on promises yet to be fulfilled. Given the information about the robotaxis and Optimus Bot at the event, it is highly likely that these products will not be meaningful to Tesla's business for at least the next five years, if ever. This leaves investors with the current EV and battery-storage business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这是基于尚未兑现的承诺的错误想法。根据活动中关于机器人出租车和 Optimus 机器人的信息，这些产品在未来至少五年内，甚至永远都不太可能对特斯拉的业务产生重大影响。这使投资者只能依靠当前的电动汽车和电池存储业务。</p>
</div><p>There shouldn't be much optimism around these segments, either. Due to huge supply increases for EVs and profit-margin compression, Tesla's operating income and free cash flow have plummeted in recent quarters. Over the last 12 months, it has generated just $1.7 billion in free cash flow. That is a measly figure compared to its market cap of $686 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于这些领域也不应抱有太多乐观态度。由于电动汽车供应大幅增加和利润率受挤压，特斯拉的营业收入和自由现金流在最近几个季度急剧下降。在过去 12 个月中，它仅产生了 17 亿美元的自由现金流。与其 6860 亿美元的市值相比，这是一个微不足道的数字。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock looked overvalued before this &#34;We, Robot&#34; event. With no new products coming until at least a few years and unproven technology, it is still overvalued after the event as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在&#34;我们，机器人&#34;活动之前，特斯拉股票看起来被高估了。由于至少几年内没有新产品推出，技术尚未得到验证，即使在活动之后，它仍然被高估。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Falls After Lackluster Robotaxi Event: Time to Buy the Dip?

- 特斯拉在"We, Robot"活动中展示了原型自动驾驶车辆和人形机器人。  
- 投资者对未来产品的实际影响表示怀疑，特斯拉股价下跌 10%。  
- 目前，特斯拉的自驾技术仍处于原型阶段，未来五年内可能不会对业务产生重大影响。

特斯拉股票在平淡无奇的自动驾驶出租车活动后下跌：现在是逢低买入的好时机吗？