<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 2.08%) 股票最近几个月一直在上涨，从 8 月份的每股 20 美元上涨到本文撰写时的每股 55 美元以上。然而，尽管最近有所上涨，但仍比其历史最高价 401 美元每股低 86%。</p>
<p>消费信贷公司在过去几年一直面临较高利率环境的挑战，但情况似乎正在好转。上个月，美联储将其基准利率下调 50 个基点，看起来还会有更多的降息。Upstart 处于利率下降的有利位置，但今天买入该股票是否明智？</p>
<h2>Upstart 经历了艰难的几年</h2>
<p>Upstart 股票在 2020 年 12 月首次公开募股后立即获得成功。这家消费信贷公司受益于当时的经济环境，低利率、强劲的财政刺激和强劲的消费者。该公司立即盈利，并在管理层乐观情绪的推动下启动了规模为 4 亿美元的股票回购计划。</p>
<p>然而，增长并不可持续，因为 2022 年和 2023 年不断上升的利率拖累了业务。与银行不同，Upstart 通常不会持有自己放出的贷款。相反，它与银行、另类资产管理公司和其他机构投资者合作，购买其贷款并收取利息。例如，今年 84% 的 Upstart 贷款由机构投资者或放贷合作伙伴持有。</p>
<p>在 2022 年，由于未来利率走势未知，该公司难以找到愿意购买其贷款的买家。对于 Upstart 基于人工智能的贷款的投资者需求再次增加。去年五月，投资经理 Castlelake 同意购买高达 40 亿美元的贷款，这表明投资者对其贷款的兴趣再次增加。</p>
<p>该公司继续为其贷款获得放贷合作伙伴，包括众多信用合作社和小银行。10 月 10 日，Upstart 宣布另类资产管理公司 <strong>Blue Owl Capital</strong> 承诺在未来 18 个月内购买高达 20 亿美元的 Upstart 消费者贷款。</p>
<h2>Upstart 的放贷模式表现良好</h2>
<p>在过去几年里，Upstart 已解决了数十亿美元贷款融资的一半问题。这是投资者希望参与的一个很好的迹象。这也验证了其旨在挑战自 1989 年创立以来一直是消费信贷标准的 <strong>Fair Isaac</strong> 的 FICO 评分系统的人工智能放贷模式的有效性。</p>
<p>Upstart 的模型在信用范围内评估风险做得很好。正如下图所示，其模型找到信用评分低但可靠的借款人，同时识别出信用评分高但违约风险高于平均水平的借款人。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQxNDMvdXBzdC1wZXJmb3JtYW5jZS0xMC0xNS0yNC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQxNDMvdXBzdC1wZXJmb3JtYW5jZS0xMC0xNS0yNC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Upstart Holdings。</p>
<h2>Upstart 可能迎来巨大的再融资机会</h2>
<p>在获得资金的情况下，Upstart 现在需要消费者对其贷款的需求增加。截至 2024 年上半年，Upstart 的总贷款交易量为 22 亿美元，略高于去年，但远低于 2021 年的峰值，当时交易量超过 45 亿美元。</p>
<p>Upstart 和其他消费信贷公司可能受益于由于利率下降而带来的巨大顺风。其中一部分原因是消费者信用卡余额不断增加。根据纽约联邦储备银行的数据，消费者信用卡余额为 1.14 万亿美元。这些不断增加的余额出现在平均信用卡利率为 22.75% 的情况下，接近历史最高水平。</p>
<p>根据芝加哥商品交易所联邦基金利率监视工具，市场参与者预计到明年 10 月，联邦基金利率将降至 3.25% 至 3.5%，比今天低 1.5%。如果利率大幅下降，许多债务持有者可能会利用这一机会进行再融资和债务整合，以锁定更低的利率。</p>
<h2>买入吗？</h2>
<p>Upstart 是一家受经济和市场条件影响较大的周期性公司。这使得它比蓝筹股更具风险，不太适合寻求用更保守的方法保护资本的投资者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png"/></p>
<p>UPST PS 比数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>自 8 月份以来上涨 100% 后，该股票的价格约为销售额的 9.25 倍，明年预测销售额的 6.95 倍，这两者都处于自美联储自 2022 年 3 月开始提高基准利率以来的高位，但仍远低于 2021 年的峰值。</p>
<p>更高的估值反映了对 Upstart 业务在未来一两年内会反弹的乐观情绪，但如果这些预期未能实现，也会增加该股的风险。尽管如此，Upstart 已获得资金，并且处于良好位置，可以从利率下降中受益，如果您相信消费者贷款需求会出现反弹，那么它是一个不错的买入选择。</p>

UPST

<p>最近，Upstart（UPST）股票价格有所反弹，但仍比历史最高价低 86%。该公司与银行合作销售基于人工智能的贷款，最近获得了重要的资金承诺，重新引起投资者的兴趣。随着美联储降息，Upstart 可能受益于消费者对贷款的增加需求。然而，由于其周期性特点和当前估值较高，反映了对业务潜在反弹的乐观情绪，该股被认为存在较高风险。投资者在决定购买前应权衡这些因素</p>

<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 2.08%) stock has rallied in recent months, going from as low as $20 per share in August to over $55 per share at the time of this writing. Despite its recent rally, however, it remains 86% below its all-time high price of $401 per share in October 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 2.08%) 股票最近几个月一直在上涨，从 8 月份的每股 20 美元上涨到本文撰写时的每股 55 美元以上。然而，尽管最近有所上涨，但仍比其历史最高价 401 美元每股低 86%。</p>
</div><p>Consumer lenders have struggled with the higher interest rate environment over the past several years, but things look like they could be turning a corner. Last month, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, and more cuts appear to be coming. Upstart is well positioned to capitalize on lower rates, but is the stock a buy today?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费信贷公司在过去几年一直面临较高利率环境的挑战，但情况似乎正在好转。上个月，美联储将其基准利率下调 50 个基点，看起来还会有更多的降息。Upstart 处于利率下降的有利位置，但今天买入该股票是否明智？</p>
</div><h2>Upstart is coming off a tough couple of years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 经历了艰难的几年</h2>
</div><p>Upstart stock was an immediate winner after its December 2020 initial public offering. The consumer lender benefited from the economic environment at the time, which saw low interest rates, strong fiscal stimulus, and strong consumers. The company was profitable immediately and launched a massive $400 million share repurchase program amid management's optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 股票在 2020 年 12 月首次公开募股后立即获得成功。这家消费信贷公司受益于当时的经济环境，低利率、强劲的财政刺激和强劲的消费者。该公司立即盈利，并在管理层乐观情绪的推动下启动了规模为 4 亿美元的股票回购计划。</p>
</div><p>However, the growth wasn't sustainable, as rising interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023 dragged down the business. Unlike banks, Upstart generally doesn't hold on to the loans that it makes. Instead, it partners with banks, alternative asset managers, and other institutional investors that purchase its loans and collect interest payments. For example, this year 84% of Upstart's loans are held by institutional investors or lending partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，增长并不可持续，因为 2022 年和 2023 年不断上升的利率拖累了业务。与银行不同，Upstart 通常不会持有自己放出的贷款。相反，它与银行、另类资产管理公司和其他机构投资者合作，购买其贷款并收取利息。例如，今年 84% 的 Upstart 贷款由机构投资者或放贷合作伙伴持有。</p>
</div><p>Throughout 2022, the company struggled to find willing buyers of its loans as the future path of interest rates was unknown. Investor demand for Upstart's AI-powered loans has been picking up once again. In May of last year, the investment manager Castlelake agreed to purchase up to $4 billion of its loans -- a sign that investor appetite for its loans was picking up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年，由于未来利率走势未知，该公司难以找到愿意购买其贷款的买家。对于 Upstart 基于人工智能的贷款的投资者需求再次增加。去年五月，投资经理 Castlelake 同意购买高达 40 亿美元的贷款，这表明投资者对其贷款的兴趣再次增加。</p>
</div><p>The company has continued to secure lending partners for its loans, including numerous credit unions and small banks. On Oct. 10, Upstart announced that the alternative asset manager <strong>Blue Owl Capital</strong> committed to purchasing up to $2 billion of Upstart's consumer loans over the next 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司继续为其贷款获得放贷合作伙伴，包括众多信用合作社和小银行。10 月 10 日，Upstart 宣布另类资产管理公司 <strong>Blue Owl Capital</strong> 承诺在未来 18 个月内购买高达 20 亿美元的 Upstart 消费者贷款。</p>
</div><h2>Upstart's lending model has held up well</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 的放贷模式表现良好</h2>
</div><p>Upstart has solved half of its problems in the last couple of years with financing secured for billions of dollars in loans. This is an excellent sign that investors want to get in. It also validates its AI-powered lending model, which aims to take on <strong>Fair Isaac</strong>'s FICO scoring system, which has been the standard in consumer credit since it was created in 1989.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年里，Upstart 已解决了数十亿美元贷款融资的一半问题。这是投资者希望参与的一个很好的迹象。这也验证了其旨在挑战自 1989 年创立以来一直是消费信贷标准的 <strong>Fair Isaac</strong> 的 FICO 评分系统的人工智能放贷模式的有效性。</p>
</div><p>Upstart's models have done a solid job evaluating risk across the credit spectrum. As the chart below shows, its models find dependable borrowers with low credit scores while identifying those with high credit scores but a higher-than-average chance of defaulting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的模型在信用范围内评估风险做得很好。正如下图所示，其模型找到信用评分低但可靠的借款人，同时识别出信用评分高但违约风险高于平均水平的借款人。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQxNDMvdXBzdC1wZXJmb3JtYW5jZS0xMC0xNS0yNC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794143%2Fupst-performance-10-15-24.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Upstart Holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Upstart Holdings。</p>
</div><h2>A huge refinance opportunity could await Upstart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 可能迎来巨大的再融资机会</h2>
</div><p>With funding secured, Upstart now needs consumer demand for its loans to pick up. Through the first half of 2024, Upstart's total loan transaction volume was $2.2 billion, slightly above last year but well below its peak in 2021, where transaction volume was over $4.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在获得资金的情况下，Upstart 现在需要消费者对其贷款的需求增加。截至 2024 年上半年，Upstart 的总贷款交易量为 22 亿美元，略高于去年，但远低于 2021 年的峰值，当时交易量超过 45 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Upstart and other consumer lenders could benefit from a massive tailwind due to falling interest rates. Part of that has to do with ballooning consumer credit card balances. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer credit card balances are $1.14 trillion. These rising balances come when average credit card interest rates are 22.75%, near the highest they've ever been.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 和其他消费信贷公司可能受益于由于利率下降而带来的巨大顺风。其中一部分原因是消费者信用卡余额不断增加。根据纽约联邦储备银行的数据，消费者信用卡余额为 1.14 万亿美元。这些不断增加的余额出现在平均信用卡利率为 22.75% 的情况下，接近历史最高水平。</p>
</div><p>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants expect the federal funds rate to be around 3.25% to 3.5% by October of next year, or 1.5% below where they are today. If interest rates do decline meaningfully, many debt holders could use this as an opportunity to refinance and consolidate their debts to lock in lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据芝加哥商品交易所联邦基金利率监视工具，市场参与者预计到明年 10 月，联邦基金利率将降至 3.25% 至 3.5%，比今天低 1.5%。如果利率大幅下降，许多债务持有者可能会利用这一机会进行再融资和债务整合，以锁定更低的利率。</p>
</div><h2>Is it a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买入吗？</h2>
</div><p>Upstart is a cyclical company vulnerable to economic and market conditions. This makes it riskier than blue chip stocks and not ideal for investors looking to protect their capital with a more conservative approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 是一家受经济和市场条件影响较大的周期性公司。这使得它比蓝筹股更具风险，不太适合寻求用更保守的方法保护资本的投资者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png"/></p>
<p>UPST PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UPST PS 比数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>After its 100% run-up since August, the stock is priced around 9.25 times sales and 6.95 times next year's forecast sales, both on the higher end since the Fed began raising its benchmark interest rate in March 2022 but still well below its peak valuation from 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 8 月份以来上涨 100% 后，该股票的价格约为销售额的 9.25 倍，明年预测销售额的 6.95 倍，这两者都处于自美联储自 2022 年 3 月开始提高基准利率以来的高位，但仍远低于 2021 年的峰值。</p>
</div><p>The higher valuation reflects optimism that Upstart's business will rebound over the next year or two but also opens up the stock to more risk if those expectations fail to materialize. That said, Upstart has secured funding and is well positioned to benefit from falling interest rates, making it a good buy if you believe a rebound in consumer loan demand is on the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的估值反映了对 Upstart 业务在未来一两年内会反弹的乐观情绪，但如果这些预期未能实现，也会增加该股的风险。尽管如此，Upstart 已获得资金，并且处于良好位置，可以从利率下降中受益，如果您相信消费者贷款需求会出现反弹，那么它是一个不错的买入选择。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Upstart While It's Below $75?

- Upstart 股票近期从 $20 涨至 $55，但仍低于历史高点 $401。  
- 随着美联储降息，Upstart 有望受益于低利率环境。  
- 投资者对其 AI 驱动贷款的需求回升，未来可能迎来反弹。

在 Upstart 股价低于 75 美元时，你是否应该购买？