<p>在过去的一个世纪里，股票是表现最好的资产类别。尽管国债、房地产和各种大宗商品（包括黄金、白银和石油）都有正收益，但没有任何资产能与股票带来的年化回报相提并论。</p>
<p>由于人工智能（AI）革命、股票分拆狂热和超预期的企业盈利，华尔街的牛市最近庆祝了两周年。成熟的股票驱动的道琼斯工业平均指数（^DJI 0.09%）、基准的标普 500 指数（^GSPC 0.40%）和增长推动的纳斯达克综合指数（^IXIC 0.63%）在 2024 年都创下了多次创纪录的收盘高点。</p>
<p>但历史也告诉我们，股票不会一直直线上涨。尽管没有任何指标或指示器能够百分之百准确地预测主要股指的短期走势，但这并不能阻止投资者寻找与道琼斯、标普 500 和/或纳斯达克综合指数的涨跌强相关的事件和预测工具。</p>
<p>目前，一个几乎完美的预测工具向华尔街发出了一个不容忽视的警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyYXNoLXBsdW5nZS1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyYXNoLXBsdW5nZS1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>自这一概率工具出现错误已经将近六十年</h2>
<p>一年多来，我已经研究了许多相关事件和预测指标，直到目前为止，它们都错误地预测了道琼斯、标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数的下跌。这包括美国 M2 货币供应自大萧条以来首次显著下降，美国会议委员会领先经济指数（LEI）大幅下降，以及连续牛市中标普 500 Shiller 市盈率之一的最高水平，经过 153 年的回溯测试。</p>
<p>然而，一个几乎完美的预测工具预示着美国经济和随后的华尔街三大股指将面临麻烦，那就是纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率指标。</p>
<p>纽约联储的衰退工具检查了 10 年期国债和三个月期国库券之间的利差（收益率差异），以计算美国在未来 12 个月内陷入衰退的可能性有多大。</p>
<p>通常，国债收益率曲线向上倾斜。这意味着未来 10 年或 30 年到期的债券将提供比一年或更短期限的国库券更高的收益率。你的资金绑定的时间越长，收益率就应该越高。</p>
<p>但偶尔，收益率曲线会倒挂，即短期国库券的收益率高于长期债券。倒挂通常是投资者对美国经济健康持怀疑态度的迹象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的美国衰退概率数据。灰色区域表示美国衰退。</p>
<p>10 年期和三个月期国库券收益率之间的利差已经颠倒了相当长的时间。根据纽约联储的衰退预测工具，到 2025 年 9 月，美国陷入衰退的概率为 57.05%。</p>
<p>请记住，这一预测工具以前曾出错。1966 年 10 月，美国在 12 个月内陷入衰退的概率超过 40%，但从未实现。尽管并非每次收益率曲线倒挂都会导致衰退，但二战后的每次美国衰退都是在收益率曲线倒挂之前。将收益率曲线倒挂视为经济衰退的必要因素。</p>
<p>尽管纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率指标并非完美，但在过去 58 年里它已经 100% 准确。</p>
<p>你可能想知道一个针对美国经济的预测工具与道琼斯工业平均指数、标普 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数有什么关系。2023 年发布的一项来自美国银行全球研究的研究发现，自 1929 年以来，大约三分之二的标普 500 指数的峰值到谷底下降发生在美国宣布衰退之后，而不是之前。</p>
<p>尽管股市并不完全反映美国经济，但预计衰退将拖累企业盈利。最终，这对华尔街及其主要股指来说将是个坏消息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvYnVsbC1tYXJrZXQtcmlzaW5nLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXF1b3Rlcy1pbnZlc3QtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvYnVsbC1tYXJrZXQtcmlzaW5nLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXF1b3Rlcy1pbnZlc3QtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>观点在华尔街上有改变的倾向</h2>
<p>纯粹基于纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率工具所说，道琼斯、标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数未来几个季度可能会经历颠簸。然而，这只是故事的一部分。</p>
<p>正如前面提到的，过去一个世纪里，股票优于所有其他资产类别。对于愿意退后一步、放宽视野并展望未来的投资者来说，这些下行指标，包括纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率工具，在历史上并不特别令人担忧。</p>
<p>经济周期的非线性是一个完美的例子，展示了观点如何改变局势。虽然衰退是正常且不可避免的，但它们在历史上持续时间很短。自二战结束以来，只有 12 次衰退中有三次持续至少一年，没有一次超过 18 个月。</p>
<p>另一方面，大多数经济扩张都持续了多年。押注美国经济（以及随之的企业盈利）会扩张一直是一种成功策略。</p>
<p>能够退后一步，展望未来，在华尔街上也是无可否认的有益的。</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<p>正式宣布，新的牛市已确认。</p>
<p>标普 500 指数目前比其 10/12/22 年收盘低点上涨了 20%。上一次熊市中，该指数下跌了 25.4%，历时 282 天。</p>
<p>阅读更多信息请访问 https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn。pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<blockquote>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) 2023 年 6 月 8 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>2023 年 6 月，随着标普 500 牛市正式确认，Bespoke 投资集团的研究人员发布了上述详尽的数据集，这些数据发布在社交媒体平台 X 上。Bespoke 计算了自 1929 年 9 月大萧条开始以来标普 500 每次熊市和牛市的历时。</p>
<p>从表中可以看出，平均标普 500 熊市仅持续了 286 个日历日，大约 9.5 个月。相比之下，94 年间典型的牛市持续时间是熊市的 3.5 倍（1,011 个日历日）。此外，27 次标普 500 牛市中有 13 次持续时间超过最长的熊市。长期乐观主义者的价值显而易见。</p>
<p>最终，我们永远无法准确预测道琼斯工业平均指数、标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数的短期走势。但这不应阻止长期投资者保持透视，并让时间发挥其魔力。</p>

纳斯达克 OMX 交易所

陶氏化学

<p>根据纽约联邦储备银行的一项高度准确的预测工具显示，道琼斯指数、标普 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数可能会面临下跌风险，该工具表明到 2025 年 9 月美国经济陷入衰退的概率为 57.05%。历史数据显示，收益率曲线反转往往在经济衰退前发生，自 1929 年以来，三分之二的标普 500 指数下跌发生在宣布经济衰退之后。尽管股票表现优于其他资产类别，但当前的经济指标表明主要股指可能面临潜在的波动</p>

<p>Over the last century, no asset class has performed better than stocks. While Treasury bonds, housing, and various commodities, including gold, silver, and oil, have delivered positive returns, nothing has come close to matching the annualized return stocks have brought to the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的一个世纪里，股票是表现最好的资产类别。尽管国债、房地产和各种大宗商品（包括黄金、白银和石油）都有正收益，但没有任何资产能与股票带来的年化回报相提并论。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, stock-split euphoria, and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, Wall Street's bull market rally recently celebrated its two-year anniversary. The mature stock-driven <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 0.09%), benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.40%), and growth-fueled <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC 0.63%) have all reached multiple record-closing highs in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于人工智能（AI）革命、股票分拆狂热和超预期的企业盈利，华尔街的牛市最近庆祝了两周年。成熟的股票驱动的道琼斯工业平均指数（^DJI 0.09%）、基准的标普 500 指数（^GSPC 0.40%）和增长推动的纳斯达克综合指数（^IXIC 0.63%）在 2024 年都创下了多次创纪录的收盘高点。</p>
</div><p>But history also tells us that stocks don't move higher in a straight line. Though no metric or indicator can concretely predict short-term directional moves in the major stock indexes with 100% accuracy, it doesn't stop investors from seeking out events and forecasting tools that have strongly correlated with advances or declines in the Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但历史也告诉我们，股票不会一直直线上涨。尽管没有任何指标或指示器能够百分之百准确地预测主要股指的短期走势，但这并不能阻止投资者寻找与道琼斯、标普 500 和/或纳斯达克综合指数的涨跌强相关的事件和预测工具。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, one nearly flawless forecasting tool offers an ominous warning for Wall Street that investors would be wise not to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，一个几乎完美的预测工具向华尔街发出了一个不容忽视的警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyYXNoLXBsdW5nZS1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794551%2Fstock-market-crash-plunge-financial-newspaper-recession-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It's been almost six decades since this probability tool was incorrect</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>自这一概率工具出现错误已经将近六十年</h2>
</div><p>For more than a year, I've examined a number of correlative events and predictive indicators that have, until now at least, incorrectly forecast downside to come in the Dow, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. This includes the first notable decline in U.S. M2 money supply since the Great Depression, a big decline in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), and one of the highest S&amp;P 500 Shiller price-to-earnings ratios during a continuous bull market, when back-tested 153 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一年多来，我已经研究了许多相关事件和预测指标，直到目前为止，它们都错误地预测了道琼斯、标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数的下跌。这包括美国 M2 货币供应自大萧条以来首次显著下降，美国会议委员会领先经济指数（LEI）大幅下降，以及连续牛市中标普 500 Shiller 市盈率之一的最高水平，经过 153 年的回溯测试。</p>
</div><p>However, the one virtually flawless forecasting tool that portends trouble for the U.S. economy, and subsequently Wall Street's three major stock indexes, is the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一个几乎完美的预测工具预示着美国经济和随后的华尔街三大股指将面临麻烦，那就是纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率指标。</p>
</div><p>The NY Fed's recession tool examines the spread (difference in yield) between the 10-year Treasury bond and three-month Treasury bill to calculate how likely it is that a U.S. recession will take shape within the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约联储的衰退工具检查了 10 年期国债和三个月期国库券之间的利差（收益率差异），以计算美国在未来 12 个月内陷入衰退的可能性有多大。</p>
</div><p>Usually, the Treasury yield curve slopes up and to the right. This is to say that bonds maturing 10 or 30 years from now are going to offer higher yields than Treasury bills set to mature in a year or less. The longer your money is tied up, the higher the yield should be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，国债收益率曲线向上倾斜。这意味着未来 10 年或 30 年到期的债券将提供比一年或更短期限的国库券更高的收益率。你的资金绑定的时间越长，收益率就应该越高。</p>
</div><p>But every so often, the yield curve inverts, which is where short-term bills sport higher yields than long-term bonds. Inversions are typically a sign of skepticism from investors about the health of the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但偶尔，收益率曲线会倒挂，即短期国库券的收益率高于长期债券。倒挂通常是投资者对美国经济健康持怀疑态度的迹象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png"/></p>
<p>US Recession Probability data by YCharts. Gray areas denote U.S. recessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的美国衰退概率数据。灰色区域表示美国衰退。</p>
</div><p>The spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasury yields has been upside-down for quite some time. According to the NY Fed's recession forecasting tool, there's a 57.05% chance of the U.S. dipping into a recession by September 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期和三个月期国库券收益率之间的利差已经颠倒了相当长的时间。根据纽约联储的衰退预测工具，到 2025 年 9 月，美国陷入衰退的概率为 57.05%。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind that this predictive tool has been wrong before. In October 1966, the probability of a U.S. recession taking shape within 12 months exceeded 40% but never materialized. While not every yield-curve inversion is followed by a recession, every U.S. recession following World War II has been preceded by a yield-curve inversion. Think of a yield-curve inversion as a necessary ingredient to an economic downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请记住，这一预测工具以前曾出错。1966 年 10 月，美国在 12 个月内陷入衰退的概率超过 40%，但从未实现。尽管并非每次收益率曲线倒挂都会导致衰退，但二战后的每次美国衰退都是在收益率曲线倒挂之前。将收益率曲线倒挂视为经济衰退的必要因素。</p>
</div><p>Although the NY Fed's recession probability indicator isn't perfect, it has been 100% accurate over the last 58 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率指标并非完美，但在过去 58 年里它已经 100% 准确。</p>
</div><p>You might be wondering what a predictive tool for the U.S. economy has to do with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. A study released in 2023 from <strong>Bank of America</strong> Global Research found that approximately two-thirds of the S&amp;P 500's peak-to-trough downturns since 1929 have occurred after, not prior to, a U.S. recession being declared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能想知道一个针对美国经济的预测工具与道琼斯工业平均指数、标普 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数有什么关系。2023 年发布的一项来自美国银行全球研究的研究发现，自 1929 年以来，大约三分之二的标普 500 指数的峰值到谷底下降发生在美国宣布衰退之后，而不是之前。</p>
</div><p>Even though the stock market doesn't mirror the U.S. economy, a recession would be expected to drag down corporate earnings. Eventually, this would be bad news for Wall Street and its major stock indexes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管股市并不完全反映美国经济，但预计衰退将拖累企业盈利。最终，这对华尔街及其主要股指来说将是个坏消息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvYnVsbC1tYXJrZXQtcmlzaW5nLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXF1b3Rlcy1pbnZlc3QtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794551%2Fbull-market-rising-stock-charts-financial-newspaper-quotes-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Perspective has a tendency to change things on Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>观点在华尔街上有改变的倾向</h2>
</div><p>Based purely on what the NY Fed's recession probability tool is saying, the Dow, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite could be in for a bumpy ride in the quarters to come. However, this only tells part of the story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纯粹基于纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率工具所说，道琼斯、标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数未来几个季度可能会经历颠簸。然而，这只是故事的一部分。</p>
</div><p>As noted earlier, stocks have been superior to all other asset classes over the last century. For investors willing to take a step back, widen their lens, and look to the horizon, none of these downside indicators -- including the NY Fed's recessional probability tool -- are particularly worrisome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如前面提到的，过去一个世纪里，股票优于所有其他资产类别。对于愿意退后一步、放宽视野并展望未来的投资者来说，这些下行指标，包括纽约联邦储备银行的衰退概率工具，在历史上并不特别令人担忧。</p>
</div><p>The non-linearity of the economic cycle serves as the perfect example of how perspective can be a game changer. While recessions are both normal and inevitable, they're historically short-lived. Only three of the 12 recessions since the end of World War II endured at least one year, with none surpassing 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济周期的非线性是一个完美的例子，展示了观点如何改变局势。虽然衰退是正常且不可避免的，但它们在历史上持续时间很短。自二战结束以来，只有 12 次衰退中有三次持续至少一年，没有一次超过 18 个月。</p>
</div><p>On the other end of the spectrum, a majority of economic expansions stuck around for multiple years. Wagering on the U.S. economy (and subsequently corporate earnings) to expand has been a winning strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，大多数经济扩张都持续了多年。押注美国经济（以及随之的企业盈利）会扩张一直是一种成功策略。</p>
</div><p>Being able to take a step back and look to the horizon has been undeniably beneficial on Wall Street, too.</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能够退后一步，展望未来，在华尔街上也是无可否认的有益的。</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
</div><p>It's official. A new bull market is confirmed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正式宣布，新的牛市已确认。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 is now up 20% from its 10/12/22 closing low. The prior bear market saw the index fall 25.4% over 282 days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 指数目前比其 10/12/22 年收盘低点上涨了 20%。上一次熊市中，该指数下跌了 25.4%，历时 282 天。</p>
</div><p>Read more at https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn. pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<blockquote>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 8, 2023</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读更多信息请访问 https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn。pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<blockquote>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) 2023 年 6 月 8 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In June 2023, with the S&amp;P 500 bull market officially confirmed, the researchers at Bespoke Investment Group released the extensive data set you see above, which was posted on social media platform X. Bespoke calculated the calendar day length of every bear and bull market for the S&amp;P 500 dating back to the start of the Great Depression in September 1929.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年 6 月，随着标普 500 牛市正式确认，Bespoke 投资集团的研究人员发布了上述详尽的数据集，这些数据发布在社交媒体平台 X 上。Bespoke 计算了自 1929 年 9 月大萧条开始以来标普 500 每次熊市和牛市的历时。</p>
</div><p>As you'll note from the table, the average S&amp;P 500 bear market has lasted only 286 calendar days, or roughly 9.5 months. Comparatively, the typical bull market over 94 years has endured 3.5 times as long (1,011 calendar days). Further, 13 out of 27 S&amp;P 500 bull markets have lasted longer than the lengthiest bear market. The value of being a long-term optimist simply couldn't be clearer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表中可以看出，平均标普 500 熊市仅持续了 286 个日历日，大约 9.5 个月。相比之下，94 年间典型的牛市持续时间是熊市的 3.5 倍（1,011 个日历日）。此外，27 次标普 500 牛市中有 13 次持续时间超过最长的熊市。长期乐观主义者的价值显而易见。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, we're never going to be able to predict short-term directional moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite with concrete accuracy. But this shouldn't stop long-term-minded investors from maintaining perspective and allowing time to work its magic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，我们永远无法准确预测道琼斯工业平均指数、标普 500 和纳斯达克综合指数的短期走势。但这不应阻止长期投资者保持透视，并让时间发挥其魔力。</p>
</div>

Are the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Set to Plunge? 1 Virtually Flawless Forecasting Tool Thinks So.

- 股票在过去一个世纪表现优于其他资产类别。  
- NY Fed 的衰退概率工具显示，未来 12 个月内美国衰退概率为 57.05%。  
- 历史上，经济衰退通常会影响企业盈利，进而影响股市表现。

道琼斯指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数是否会暴跌？一个几乎完美的预测工具认为会如此