<p><strong>Autozone</strong> 和 <strong>O'Reilly</strong> 是汽车零部件零售领域的两大巨头。这两家公司的市值分别为 530 亿美元和 710 亿美元。相比之下，<strong>领先汽车配件</strong>（AAP 1.12%）的市值仅为 24 亿美元，这种价值差异有些令人惊讶。</p>
<p>领先汽车配件拥有近 4,800 家门店，而 Autozone 拥有将近 7,400 家，O'Reilly 则有大约 6,200 家。因此，后两者规模更大，但并不像市值所暗示的那样大。</p>
<p>就领先汽车配件而言，它面临着无法掩饰的问题。但它正在努力解决这些问题。而且它即将获得 12 亿美元的巨额资金，以帮助资助其扭转局面，对于一个市值如此之低的公司来说，这是一个难以置信的数额。</p>
<h2>领先汽车配件如何获得巨额资金？</h2>
<p>除了其同名零售连锁店，领先汽车配件还拥有其他业务，即 Carquest 和 Worldpac。去年，该公司聘请了首席执行官 Shane O'Kelly，他正试图重组业务。这一重组包括出售 Worldpac 业务。</p>
<p>今年八月，领先汽车配件达成协议，以 15 亿美元出售 Worldpac。考虑到交易费用，公司将净赚约 12 亿美元，相当于其当前市值的一半。该交易预计将在第四季度完成。</p>
<p>领先汽车配件表示，Worldpac 在过去 12 个月创造了 21 亿美元的营收，并获得了 1 亿美元的息税折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）。这意味着领先汽车配件以其销售额的 0.7 倍和 EBITDA 的 15 倍出售了该业务。</p>
<p>这个价格远高于公平的销售价格。以此为参照，领先汽车配件股票的销售额约为销售额的 0.2 倍，EBITDA 约为 EBITDA 的 7 倍。因此，Worldpac 的销售价格相对于领先汽车配件股票当前的交易价格来说，代表了一个显著的溢价。</p>
<h2>领先汽车配件的意外之财如何帮助</h2>
<p>O'Kelly 表示，出售 Worldpac 为领先汽车配件提供了更多的&#34;财务灵活性&#34;，以应对所需进行的变革。毫无疑问，这些变革将是重大的。</p>
<p>考虑到领先汽车配件相对于同行表现不佳，这些变革是必要的。以一个指标为例：营业利润率。在过去的十年里，Autozone 和 O'Reilly 的营业利润率大多在 18% 到 20% 之间。相比之下，领先汽车配件的营业利润率平均约为 6%，最近甚至降至更低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9b9c30e868357bfdc6ebb584d9d5a303.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9b9c30e868357bfdc6ebb584d9d5a303.png"/></p>
<p>AAP 营业利润率（TTM）数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>领先汽车配件聘请 O'Kelly 解决这一盈利问题。这位新任首席执行官是供应链专家，他很快意识到，领先汽车配件之所以盈利困难，是因为其供应链基础设施效率低下。</p>
<p>领先汽车配件已经启动了为期多年的供应链转型，我对此表示乐观，相信这将彻底改变股东的回报。</p>
<p>请考虑，如果领先汽车配件能够从业务中挤出 10% 的利润率 -- 仍然是同行的一半 -- 它可以产生接近 10 亿美元的年利润。毕竟，即使出售了 Worldpac，领先汽车配件仍然每年创造超过 90 亿美元的销售额。如果股票以其营业利润的 10 倍价值，那么在这种情况下，股价可能会翻倍增长。</p>
<p>因此，重组供应链对于领先汽车配件及其股东至关重要。但这是一项昂贵的工作，而公司的资产负债表并不是最好的。其长期债务几乎达到 18 亿美元，现金及现金等价物不到 5 亿美元。明确地说，它不会很快面临流动性问题。但这仍然是一个不太理想的净负债位置。</p>
<p>出售 Worldpac 将平衡领先汽车配件的资产负债表，并为其提供更多喘息空间。这种喘息空间将使管理层能够做出最有利于长期成功的业务决策。</p>
<p>这就是为什么我对领先汽车配件股票现在出售 Worldpac 感到如此乐观。如果扭转成功，该股票的估值今天将是相当便宜的。</p>

领先汽车配件

<p>领先汽车配件将通过以 50 亿美元出售其 Worldpac 业务而获得 20 亿美元的收入，这将增强其财务灵活性，同时 CEO Shane O'Kelly 领导的持续重组工作也在进行中。尽管其市值只有 14 亿美元，相比竞争对手 Autozone 和 O'Reilly 较小，但领先汽车配件的目标是将其运营利润率从 10 年来的最低点 6% 提高到潜在的 10%，这可能使其股价翻倍。这次出售将有助于解决其 80 亿美元的长期债务，并支持多年的供应链转型</p>

<p><strong>Autozone</strong> and <strong>O'Reilly</strong> are the two giants in the car-parts retail space. These two companies have market capitalizations of $53 billion and $71 billion, respectively. By comparison, <strong>Advance Auto Parts</strong>(AAP 1.12%) is tiny with its market cap of just $2.4 billion. But this value disparity is somewhat surprising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Autozone</strong> 和 <strong>O'Reilly</strong> 是汽车零部件零售领域的两大巨头。这两家公司的市值分别为 530 亿美元和 710 亿美元。相比之下，<strong>领先汽车配件</strong>（AAP 1.12%）的市值仅为 24 亿美元，这种价值差异有些令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>Advance has almost 4,800 locations, while Autozone has nearly 7,400 and O'Reilly has around 6,200. So the latter two are bigger, but not by the margin that the market valuations would suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>领先汽车配件拥有近 4,800 家门店，而 Autozone 拥有将近 7,400 家，O'Reilly 则有大约 6,200 家。因此，后两者规模更大，但并不像市值所暗示的那样大。</p>
</div><p>For its part, Advance has problems that can't be sugarcoated. But it's working to fix them. And it's about to get a $1.2 billion payday to help fund its turnaround, which is an unbelievable amount for a company with such a low valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就领先汽车配件而言，它面临着无法掩饰的问题。但它正在努力解决这些问题。而且它即将获得 12 亿美元的巨额资金，以帮助资助其扭转局面，对于一个市值如此之低的公司来说，这是一个难以置信的数额。</p>
</div><h2>How is Advance getting a big payday?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>领先汽车配件如何获得巨额资金？</h2>
</div><p>On top of its namesake retail chain, Advance also owns other businesses, namely Carquest and Worldpac. Last year, the company hired CEO Shane O'Kelly, who's trying to restructure the business. This restructuring includes selling the Worldpac business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了其同名零售连锁店，领先汽车配件还拥有其他业务，即 Carquest 和 Worldpac。去年，该公司聘请了首席执行官 Shane O'Kelly，他正试图重组业务。这一重组包括出售 Worldpac 业务。</p>
</div><p>In August, Advance reached a deal to sell Worldpac for $1.5 billion. Taking transaction expenses into account, the company will net about $1.2 billion -- half of its current market cap. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年八月，领先汽车配件达成协议，以 15 亿美元出售 Worldpac。考虑到交易费用，公司将净赚约 12 亿美元，相当于其当前市值的一半。该交易预计将在第四季度完成。</p>
</div><p>Advance says that Worldpac has generated $2.1 billion in trailing-12-month revenue and has earned $100 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). This means that Advance sold it for 0.7 times its sales and 15 times its EBITDA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>领先汽车配件表示，Worldpac 在过去 12 个月创造了 21 亿美元的营收，并获得了 1 亿美元的息税折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）。这意味着领先汽车配件以其销售额的 0.7 倍和 EBITDA 的 15 倍出售了该业务。</p>
</div><p>That's more than a fair sales price. For perspective, Advance stock trades at 0.2 times sales and at about 7 times EBITDA. So the sales price for Worldpac represents a significant premium to where Advance stock itself trades today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个价格远高于公平的销售价格。以此为参照，领先汽车配件股票的销售额约为销售额的 0.2 倍，EBITDA 约为 EBITDA 的 7 倍。因此，Worldpac 的销售价格相对于领先汽车配件股票当前的交易价格来说，代表了一个显著的溢价。</p>
</div><h2>How Advance's windfall can help</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>领先汽车配件的意外之财如何帮助</h2>
</div><p>O'Kelly says that selling Worldpac gives Advance more &#34;financial flexibility&#34; as it navigates the changes it needs to make. And to be sure, the changes are going to be substantial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>O'Kelly 表示，出售 Worldpac 为领先汽车配件提供了更多的&#34;财务灵活性&#34;，以应对所需进行的变革。毫无疑问，这些变革将是重大的。</p>
</div><p>They need to be, considering how poorly Advance has performed relative to its peers. Take one metric: the operating-profit margin. For the past decade, both Autozone and O'Reilly have had operating margins mostly between 18% and 20%. By comparison, Advance has averaged an operating margin of about 6%, and it's fallen even lower than that lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到领先汽车配件相对于同行表现不佳，这些变革是必要的。以一个指标为例：营业利润率。在过去的十年里，Autozone 和 O'Reilly 的营业利润率大多在 18% 到 20% 之间。相比之下，领先汽车配件的营业利润率平均约为 6%，最近甚至降至更低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9b9c30e868357bfdc6ebb584d9d5a303.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9b9c30e868357bfdc6ebb584d9d5a303.png"/></p>
<p>AAP Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAP 营业利润率（TTM）数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Advance hired O'Kelly to fix this profitability problem. The new CEO is a supply chain expert and quickly realized that Advance is struggling with profitability because of its inefficient supply chain infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>领先汽车配件聘请 O'Kelly 解决这一盈利问题。这位新任首席执行官是供应链专家，他很快意识到，领先汽车配件之所以盈利困难，是因为其供应链基础设施效率低下。</p>
</div><p>A multiyear supply chain transformation is already underway for Advance, and I'm optimistic that this will completely transform returns for shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>领先汽车配件已经启动了为期多年的供应链转型，我对此表示乐观，相信这将彻底改变股东的回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider that if Advance can squeeze a 10% margin from its business -- still half of what its peers have -- it can generate close to $1 billion in annual profits. After all, even after selling Worldpac, Advance still generates over $9 billion in annual sales. And if the stock is valued at 10 times its operating profit, then shares could quadruple in value in this scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请考虑，如果领先汽车配件能够从业务中挤出 10% 的利润率 -- 仍然是同行的一半 -- 它可以产生接近 10 亿美元的年利润。毕竟，即使出售了 Worldpac，领先汽车配件仍然每年创造超过 90 亿美元的销售额。如果股票以其营业利润的 10 倍价值，那么在这种情况下，股价可能会翻倍增长。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, restructuring the supply chain is crucial for Advance and its shareholders. But it's costly, and the company's balance sheet isn't the greatest. It has almost $1.8 billion in long-term debt and less than $500 million in cash and equivalents. To be clear, it's not in danger of running out of liquidity anytime soon. But this is an unattractive net-debt position nonetheless.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，重组供应链对于领先汽车配件及其股东至关重要。但这是一项昂贵的工作，而公司的资产负债表并不是最好的。其长期债务几乎达到 18 亿美元，现金及现金等价物不到 5 亿美元。明确地说，它不会很快面临流动性问题。但这仍然是一个不太理想的净负债位置。</p>
</div><p>Selling Worldpac will even out Advance's balance sheet and give it just a little more breathing room. And this breathing room will allow management to make the business decisions that will set it up best for long-term success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>出售 Worldpac 将平衡领先汽车配件的资产负债表，并为其提供更多喘息空间。这种喘息空间将使管理层能够做出最有利于长期成功的业务决策。</p>
</div><p>This is why I couldn't be more optimistic about Advance stock now that it's selling Worldpac. And if the turnaround is successful, the stock is trading at quite the bargain valuation today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么我对领先汽车配件股票现在出售 Worldpac 感到如此乐观。如果扭转成功，该股票的估值今天将是相当便宜的。</p>
</div>

这家市值 24 亿美元的公司即将获得 12 亿美元的收益。以下是我为何对此充满信心的原因