<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/01/159202395-s.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/01/159202395-s.jpg"/></p>
<p>摩根士丹利于 2024 年 10 月 21 日在公司 Q3 财报发布前，将 ServiceNow（纽约证券交易所：NOW）的评级从 “增持” 调降至 “持平”。</p>
<p>尽管评级下调，摩根士丹利将股票的目标价从 900 美元上调至 960 美元，反映了对公司近期前景的不确定信号。</p>
<p>股价在开盘时出现 2% 的下跌反应。</p>
<p>根据摩根士丹利分析师 Keith Weiss 的说法，尽管 ServiceNow 产品的需求保持稳定，但在估值方面缺乏明显上涨空间，加上投资者对 Pro Plus 采用的高期望，平衡了风险/回报前景。</p>
<p>Weiss 强调了对公司领导层的担忧，特别是在前首席运营官 CJ Desai 离职后，领导层不确定性对产品战略的潜在长期影响。</p>
<h2>Q3 财报预期</h2>
<p>ServiceNow 定于 2024 年 10 月 23 日发布其 Q3 财报，华尔街预计每股收益为 3.45 美元，营收为 27.5 亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管分析师们认为这些目标是可以实现的，但 Oppenheimer 的 Brian Schwartz 最近指出，2025 年订阅增长的高期望可能会抑制市场热情。</p>
<p>Q3 的结果可能会证实公司的积极势头，但订阅增长的任何表现不佳都可能抑制投资者情绪。</p>
<p>Schwartz 还将其目标价上调至 1020 美元，称赞其出色执行，但警告未来增长预期可能不像市场预期的那样乐观。</p>
<h2>分歧的分析师观点</h2>
<p>多家分析师已经调整了对 ServiceNow 的评级和目标价。</p>
<p>德意志银行重申其买入评级，并在进行合作伙伴检查后将目标价上调至 1020 美元，显示持续强劲的势头。</p>
<p>BMO 紧随其后，将目标价上调至 1025 美元，受到经销商社区的积极反馈的推动。</p>
<p>瑞银将华尔街最高目标价设定为 1055 美元，发现 ServiceNow 的两个最大合作伙伴超出了增长预期，进一步突显了业务的实力。</p>
<p>然而，高盛保持更为怀疑，维持卖出评级，目标价为 716 美元，称担心关键政府经销商合作伙伴 Carahsoft 正接受司法部的调查。</p>
<h2>领导层变动和产品战略担忧</h2>
<p>影响投资者情绪的一个问题是首席运营官 CJ Desai 最近的离职，一些分析师认为这可能会影响 ServiceNow 的产品领导和战略。</p>
<p>尽管公司的业务势头依然强劲，但这一领导变动的长期影响已导致一些分析师采取谨慎态度。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利特别指出，领导缺口可能是未来增长的潜在风险，特别是在公司努力保持在企业软件领域的主导地位时。</p>
<h2>基本绩效指标</h2>
<p>ServiceNow 在企业软件市场上始终表现优异，得益于其强大的订阅模式，在 2024 年 Q2 中占据了超过 96% 的营收。</p>
<p>该公司的竞争优势在于能够提供定制化的、人工智能驱动的工作流解决方案，深度融入客户运营。</p>
<p>这导致客户的切换成本高昂，稳定的营收流。</p>
<p>在过去几年中，该公司在营收方面保持了令人印象深刻的 5 年复合年增长率达 27%，展示了其在竞争激烈市场中的韧性。</p>
<p>此外，其 79% 的毛利率和强劲的现金流生成历史突显了其财务实力。</p>
<h2>估值指标</h2>
<p>目前，ServiceNow 以其 2025 财年预期收益的 57 倍交易，以及其前瞻性 EV/营收的 16.7 倍。</p>
<p>即使对于一家领先的云软件公司来说，这些都是高倍数，尤其是考虑到增长势头放缓。</p>
<p>公司的股权补偿（SBC）仍然是投资者关注的焦点，过去 12 个月的 SBC 占据了超过 16 亿美元，这会稀释股东价值并扭曲现金流指标。</p>
<p>即使考虑到公司的竞争地位和人工智能计划，高溢价估值也引发了关于 ServiceNow 是否能在中期继续表现优异的疑问。</p>
<p>现在我们已经从基本面分析了业务，是时候将注意力转向股票的技术面，看看价格可能的走势。</p>
<h2>在 950 美元处面临短期阻力</h2>
<p>尽管 ServiceNow 的股价在所有长期（月度、周度、日度）图表上仍然非常强劲，但如果我们将其缩小到小时图表，可以看到自 9 月 23 日以来，股价在 950 美元上方遇到了一些阻力，形成了双顶。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/NOW_2024-10-21_19-44-56-1024x575.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/NOW_2024-10-21_19-44-56-1024x575.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>因此，那些对股票持有看涨态度但尚未建仓的投资者和交易者必须等待公司发布 Q3 财报，并等待股价在 950 美元以上收盘后再开启新的多头头寸。</p>
<p>对股票持看跌观点的交易者可以在当前价格附近的 910 美元附近开空头头寸，止损位设在 956 美元。</p>
<p>然而，考虑到 Q3 财报仅剩两天，最好通过购买截至 10 月 25 日到期的 900 美元认购期权来进行这笔空头交易，价格为 20 美元。</p>
<p>本文最初发表于 Invezz。</p>

现在服务

<p>摩根士丹利将现在服务（NYSE: NOW）的评级从 “增持” 下调至 “持平”，在其第三季度财报发布之前，提高了其目标股价，尽管对该公司前景的信号出现了混合。股价在开盘时下跌了 2%。分析师对公司持有不同看法，德意志银行和 BMO 提高了目标股价，而高盛维持卖出评级，原因是担忧领导层变动和一家重要合作伙伴的调查。现在服务强大的订阅模式和财务表现受到关注，但高估值倍数和股权补偿引发了对未来增长的担忧</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/01/159202395-s.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/01/159202395-s.jpg"/></p>
<p>Morgan Stanley downgraded ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) from “Overweight” to “Equal-Weight” on October 21, 2024 ahead of the company’s Q3 earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利于 2024 年 10 月 21 日在公司 Q3 财报发布前，将 ServiceNow（纽约证券交易所：NOW）的评级从 “增持” 调降至 “持平”。</p>
</div><p>Despite the downgrade, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock from $900 to $960, reflecting mixed signals about the company’s near-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管评级下调，摩根士丹利将股票的目标价从 900 美元上调至 960 美元，反映了对公司近期前景的不确定信号。</p>
</div><p>Shares reacted negatively, dropping 2% at the opening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价在开盘时出现 2% 的下跌反应。</p>
</div><p>According to Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss, while demand for ServiceNow’s products remains stable, the lack of clear upside in valuation, combined with high investor expectations surrounding the Pro Plus adoption, has balanced the risk/reward outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据摩根士丹利分析师 Keith Weiss 的说法，尽管 ServiceNow 产品的需求保持稳定，但在估值方面缺乏明显上涨空间，加上投资者对 Pro Plus 采用的高期望，平衡了风险/回报前景。</p>
</div><p>Weiss highlighted concerns about the company’s leadership, particularly following the departure of former COO CJ Desai, and the potential long-term impact of leadership uncertainty on product strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Weiss 强调了对公司领导层的担忧，特别是在前首席运营官 CJ Desai 离职后，领导层不确定性对产品战略的潜在长期影响。</p>
</div><h2>Q3 earnings expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Q3 财报预期</h2>
</div><p>ServiceNow is set to report its Q3 earnings on October 23, 2024, with Wall Street expecting earnings of $3.45 per share on $2.75 billion in revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ServiceNow 定于 2024 年 10 月 23 日发布其 Q3 财报，华尔街预计每股收益为 3.45 美元，营收为 27.5 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While analysts believe these targets are achievable, Oppenheimer’s Brian Schwartz recently noted that high expectations for subscription growth in 2025 might temper market enthusiasm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管分析师们认为这些目标是可以实现的，但 Oppenheimer 的 Brian Schwartz 最近指出，2025 年订阅增长的高期望可能会抑制市场热情。</p>
</div><p>The Q3 results are likely to confirm the company’s positive momentum, but any underperformance in subscription growth could dampen investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Q3 的结果可能会证实公司的积极势头，但订阅增长的任何表现不佳都可能抑制投资者情绪。</p>
</div><p>Schwartz also upped his price target to $1,020, citing solid execution but cautioning that future growth estimates may not be as optimistic as the market anticipates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Schwartz 还将其目标价上调至 1020 美元，称赞其出色执行，但警告未来增长预期可能不像市场预期的那样乐观。</p>
</div><h2>Diverging analyst views</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分歧的分析师观点</h2>
</div><p>Several analysts have revised their ratings and price targets for ServiceNow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多家分析师已经调整了对 ServiceNow 的评级和目标价。</p>
</div><p>Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating, raising its target to $1,020 after conducting partner checks that showed continued strong momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志银行重申其买入评级，并在进行合作伙伴检查后将目标价上调至 1020 美元，显示持续强劲的势头。</p>
</div><p>BMO followed suit, increasing its price target to $1,025, driven by positive feedback from the reseller community.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BMO 紧随其后，将目标价上调至 1025 美元，受到经销商社区的积极反馈的推动。</p>
</div><p>UBS set a Wall Street-high price target of $1,055 after finding that two of ServiceNow’s largest partners exceeded their growth expectations, further underscoring the strength of the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银将华尔街最高目标价设定为 1055 美元，发现 ServiceNow 的两个最大合作伙伴超出了增长预期，进一步突显了业务的实力。</p>
</div><p>However, Guggenheim remained more skeptical, maintaining a Sell rating with a price target of $716, citing concerns about Carahsoft, a key government reseller partner, which is under investigation by the Department of Justice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，高盛保持更为怀疑，维持卖出评级，目标价为 716 美元，称担心关键政府经销商合作伙伴 Carahsoft 正接受司法部的调查。</p>
</div><h2>Leadership changes and product strategy concerns</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>领导层变动和产品战略担忧</h2>
</div><p>One issue weighing on investor sentiment is the recent departure of COO CJ Desai, which some analysts believe could impact ServiceNow’s product leadership and strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影响投资者情绪的一个问题是首席运营官 CJ Desai 最近的离职，一些分析师认为这可能会影响 ServiceNow 的产品领导和战略。</p>
</div><p>While the company’s business momentum remains strong, the long-term effect of this leadership change has caused some analysts to adopt a cautious stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司的业务势头依然强劲，但这一领导变动的长期影响已导致一些分析师采取谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley specifically noted that the leadership gap could be a potential risk for future growth, particularly as the company navigates the complexities of maintaining its dominance in the enterprise software space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利特别指出，领导缺口可能是未来增长的潜在风险，特别是在公司努力保持在企业软件领域的主导地位时。</p>
</div><h2>Fundamental performance indicators</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本绩效指标</h2>
</div><p>ServiceNow has consistently outperformed in the enterprise software market, supported by its robust subscription model, which accounted for over 96% of its revenue in Q2 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ServiceNow 在企业软件市场上始终表现优异，得益于其强大的订阅模式，在 2024 年 Q2 中占据了超过 96% 的营收。</p>
</div><p>The company’s competitive advantage lies in its ability to offer customizable, AI-driven workflow solutions that are deeply embedded in client operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的竞争优势在于能够提供定制化的、人工智能驱动的工作流解决方案，深度融入客户运营。</p>
</div><p>This has resulted in high switching costs for customers and a steady revenue stream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致客户的切换成本高昂，稳定的营收流。</p>
</div><p>Over the past few years, the company has maintained an impressive 5-year CAGR of 27% in revenue, demonstrating its resilience in a competitive market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，该公司在营收方面保持了令人印象深刻的 5 年复合年增长率达 27%，展示了其在竞争激烈市场中的韧性。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, its gross margin of 79% and a history of strong cash flow generation emphasize its financial strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，其 79% 的毛利率和强劲的现金流生成历史突显了其财务实力。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation metrics</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值指标</h2>
</div><p>At current prices, ServiceNow trades at 57x its FY25 expected earnings and 16.7x its forward EV/revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，ServiceNow 以其 2025 财年预期收益的 57 倍交易，以及其前瞻性 EV/营收的 16.7 倍。</p>
</div><p>These are high multiples, even for a leading cloud software firm, particularly given the slowdown in growth momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使对于一家领先的云软件公司来说，这些都是高倍数，尤其是考虑到增长势头放缓。</p>
</div><p>The company’s stock-based compensation (SBC) remains a concern for investors, with SBC in the last 12 months accounting for over $1.6 billion, which dilutes shareholder value and distorts cash flow metrics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的股权补偿（SBC）仍然是投资者关注的焦点，过去 12 个月的 SBC 占据了超过 16 亿美元，这会稀释股东价值并扭曲现金流指标。</p>
</div><p>Even when factoring in the company’s competitive position and AI initiatives, the premium valuation raises questions about whether ServiceNow can continue to outperform in the medium term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使考虑到公司的竞争地位和人工智能计划，高溢价估值也引发了关于 ServiceNow 是否能在中期继续表现优异的疑问。</p>
</div><p>Now that we’ve analyzed the business from a fundamental perspective, it’s time to turn our attention to the stock’s technicals to see where the price might be heading next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在我们已经从基本面分析了业务，是时候将注意力转向股票的技术面，看看价格可能的走势。</p>
</div><h2>Facing short-term resistance at $950</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在 950 美元处面临短期阻力</h2>
</div><p>Although ServiceNow’s stock remains extremely strong on all long-term – monthly, weekly, daily – charts, if we narrow it down to hourly charts, one can see that it has been facing some resistance above $950 having made a double top near that level since September 23.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 ServiceNow 的股价在所有长期（月度、周度、日度）图表上仍然非常强劲，但如果我们将其缩小到小时图表，可以看到自 9 月 23 日以来，股价在 950 美元上方遇到了一些阻力，形成了双顶。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/NOW_2024-10-21_19-44-56-1024x575.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/NOW_2024-10-21_19-44-56-1024x575.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Hence investors and traders who yet don’t have a position in the stock but are bullish on the stock must wait for the company to report its Q3 earnings and for the stock to give a daily closing above $950 before initiating fresh long positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，那些对股票持有看涨态度但尚未建仓的投资者和交易者必须等待公司发布 Q3 财报，并等待股价在 950 美元以上收盘后再开启新的多头头寸。</p>
</div><p>Traders who have a bearish outlook on the stock can take a short position in the stock at current levels near $910 with a stop loss at $956.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对股票持看跌观点的交易者可以在当前价格附近的 910 美元附近开空头头寸，止损位设在 956 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, considering the Q3 results are just two days away, it would be better to play this short trade by purchasing ServiceNow’s $900 Put Option expiring on October 25 at $20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考虑到 Q3 财报仅剩两天，最好通过购买截至 10 月 25 日到期的 900 美元认购期权来进行这笔空头交易，价格为 20 美元。</p>
</div><p>The post Should you sell ServiceNow ahead of Q3 earnings and cash out? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文最初发表于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

你是否应该在第三季度财报发布前出售 ServiceNow 并套现？