<p>过去，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.15%）和 <strong>Lumen</strong>（LUMN -2.52%），这家前身为 CenturyLink 的电信公司，很少被同时提及。微软是一家快速增长的科技巨头，在云计算、移动、人工智能和游戏市场有着众多业务。但是，Lumen 是一家陷入困境的电信公司，它将重心放在了日益衰落的有线市场，而没有构建增长更快的无线网络。</p>
<p>到了今年六月，Lumen 的股价跌至 1 美元以下。这比 2014 年创下的历史最高价低了 95% 以上。但是在七月，Lumen 通过与微软 Azure 达成一项新的网络和光纤协议，赶走了空头。市场对这项协议的热情推动了 Lumen 的股价回升至 6 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTkvY29ubmVjdGVkLWNpdHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTkvY29ubmVjdGVkLWNpdHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>因此，在一个奇怪的转折中，当 Lumen 股价跌至 1 美元时购入的投资者实际上在过去四个月内表现优于微软的投资者。但是，Lumen 能否在可预见的未来持续产生比微软更大的收益？</p>
<h2>Lumen 的整体转变取决于新的人工智能基础设施项目</h2>
<p>Lumen 的营收连续五年下降。过去两年也未盈利，并于 2022 年暂停了股息。这一崩溃主要是由其有线业务的下滑引起的，这抵消了其光纤业务和云、安全和协作服务的辅助销售的增长。</p>
<p>然而，Lumen 专注于企业有线连接实际上使其成为微软的理想合作伙伴，后者需要迅速扩展其数据中心基础设施，以支持其不断增长的云、移动和人工智能应用生态系统。因此，微软内部的这些增长引擎可能为 Lumen 的有线业务带来强劲的长期助推力。</p>
<p>在微软介入之前，Lumen 陷入了严重困境。截至 2023 年，其自由现金流为负 8.78 亿美元，最新季度长期债务仍高达 184 亿美元，债务资产比高达 70。分析师预计，2024 年其营收将下降 11%，至 130 亿美元，净亏损为 2.52 亿美元。</p>
<p>但是在八月初，Lumen 表示已获得了价值 50 亿美元的新业务（包括微软 Azure 协议）与人工智能连接市场相关。公司还表示正在&#34;积极讨论&#34;以&#34;获得另外 70 亿美元的销售机会&#34;，并计划在未来五年内&#34;将其城际网络里程超过一倍&#34;。公司预计这些合同的初始付款将使其 2024 年的年度自由现金流增加至正 10 亿至 12 亿美元。</p>
<p>Lumen 的声明表明，其未来五年可能从新的人工智能相关合同中获得 50 亿至 120 亿美元的收入（每年 10 亿至 24 亿美元）。这将相当于其 2023 年估计营收的 7% 至 16%，但我们不知道这些助推力是否能抵消其非人工智能业务有线部门持续下滑。</p>
<p>分析师仍预计，Lumen 的营收将在 2025 年和 2026 年下降，因此他们似乎并不相信其新的人工智能合同能够挽救其业务。但是以 230 亿美元的企业价值来看，Lumen 的股价在今年的销售额不到 2 倍，看起来便宜。</p>
<h2>但它可能无法在长期内保持领先于微软</h2>
<p>Lumen 在最近几个月中表现优于微软，但这主要是因为 Azure 协议使其股价从被摘牌的边缘挽回。如果其新的人工智能交易无法带来实质性变化，Lumen 要保持这种势头可能会很困难。</p>
<p>至于微软，这家科技巨头仍在全力以赴，优先扩展其云、移动和人工智能生态系统。在 2014 年接任首席执行官的萨提亚·纳德拉的领导下，微软将其生产力软件转变为粘性的基于云的服务，扩大了 Azure 的云基础设施平台，投资了 ChatGPT 的创始人 OpenAI，并巧妙地将这家初创公司的生成式人工智能工具整合到自己的应用程序中。它还推出了新的硬件设备，并通过更多的收购和基于云的服务扩展了 Xbox 的游戏业务。</p>
<p>这就是为什么微软的年度营收从 2014 财年到 2024 财年（截至去年六月）以 11% 的复合年增长率增长，其每股收益以 16% 的复合年增长率增长。分析师预计，其营收和每股收益将在 2025 财年分别增长 14% 和 11%。</p>
<p>这些两位数的增长率表明微软仍有增长空间。但是，其市值达到了 3.1 万亿美元，使其成为全球第三大市值公司，其股价以 32 倍的市盈率并不便宜。换句话说，微软的股价中已经蕴含了大量增长，直到其利润再次赶上其估值之前，它可能会保持现状。其主要增长引擎 Azure 出现任何近期问题也可能限制其上行潜力。</p>
<p>也就是说，我认为长期来看，购买微软作为人工智能领域的投资比购买 Lumen 更明智。微软规模更大，增长更快，多样化更广泛，护城河更宽阔。Lumen 可能会比微软产生更大的近期收益，但如果其大规模人工智能连接交易的高成本压缩了其长期利润，它可能会迅速消退。</p>

LUMN

微软

<p>最近，微软和 Lumen Technologies 被作为投资选择进行了比较。尽管 Lumen 在持续困境和营收下滑的情况下与微软的 Azure 达成交易后股价出现反弹，但分析师们对 Lumen 能否持续增长持怀疑态度，而微软则继续以强劲的营收和盈利增长表现出色。尽管 Lumen 最近的表现不俗，但微软作为市场上已经建立的地位和增长潜力表明，在长期内可能会胜过 Lumen</p>

<p>In the past, <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.15%) and <strong>Lumen</strong>(LUMN -2.52%), the telecom company formerly known as CenturyLink, weren't often mentioned in the same breath. Microsoft was a rapidly growing tech giant with plenty of irons in the fire across the cloud, mobile, AI, and gaming markets. But Lumen was a struggling telecom company which had doubled down on the dying business wireline market instead of building higher-growth wireless networks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.15%）和 <strong>Lumen</strong>（LUMN -2.52%），这家前身为 CenturyLink 的电信公司，很少被同时提及。微软是一家快速增长的科技巨头，在云计算、移动、人工智能和游戏市场有着众多业务。但是，Lumen 是一家陷入困境的电信公司，它将重心放在了日益衰落的有线市场，而没有构建增长更快的无线网络。</p>
</div><p>By this June, Lumen's stock had dipped below $1. That was more than 95% below its all-time high from 2014. But in July, Lumen drove away the bears by securing a new networking and fiber deal with Microsoft's Azure, the world's second-largest cloud infrastructure platform. The market's enthusiasm for that deal propelled Lumen's stock back to $6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到了今年六月，Lumen 的股价跌至 1 美元以下。这比 2014 年创下的历史最高价低了 95% 以上。但是在七月，Lumen 通过与微软 Azure 达成一项新的网络和光纤协议，赶走了空头。市场对这项协议的热情推动了 Lumen 的股价回升至 6 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTkvY29ubmVjdGVkLWNpdHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794559%2Fconnected-city.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>So in an odd twist, investors who bought Lumen's stock when it slumped to $1 actually outperformed Microsoft's investors over the past four months. But can Lumen keep generating bigger gains than Microsoft for the foreseeable future?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在一个奇怪的转折中，当 Lumen 股价跌至 1 美元时购入的投资者实际上在过去四个月内表现优于微软的投资者。但是，Lumen 能否在可预见的未来持续产生比微软更大的收益？</p>
</div><h2>Lumen's entire turnaround hinges on new AI infrastructure projects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lumen 的整体转变取决于新的人工智能基础设施项目</h2>
</div><p>Lumen's revenue has declined for five consecutive years. It's also been unprofitable over the past two years, and it suspended its dividend in 2022. That meltdown was mainly caused by the decline of its wireline business, which offset the stronger growth of its fiber business and its ancillary sales of cloud, security, and collaboration services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lumen 的营收连续五年下降。过去两年也未盈利，并于 2022 年暂停了股息。这一崩溃主要是由其有线业务的下滑引起的，这抵消了其光纤业务和云、安全和协作服务的辅助销售的增长。</p>
</div><p>However, Lumen's focus on business wireline connections actually made it an ideal partner for Microsoft, which needed to rapidly expand its data center infrastructure to support its growing ecosystem of cloud, mobile, and AI applications. Therefore, those growth engines within Microsoft could generate strong long-term tailwinds for Lumen's wireline business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Lumen 专注于企业有线连接实际上使其成为微软的理想合作伙伴，后者需要迅速扩展其数据中心基础设施，以支持其不断增长的云、移动和人工智能应用生态系统。因此，微软内部的这些增长引擎可能为 Lumen 的有线业务带来强劲的长期助推力。</p>
</div><p>Before Microsoft swooped in, Lumen was in serious trouble. It ended 2023 with a negative free cash flow (FCF) of $878 million, and it was still shouldering $18.4 billion in long-term debt in its latest quarter with a whopping debt-to-equity ratio of 70. For 2024, analysts expect its revenue to decline 11% to $13 billion with a net loss of $252 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在微软介入之前，Lumen 陷入了严重困境。截至 2023 年，其自由现金流为负 8.78 亿美元，最新季度长期债务仍高达 184 亿美元，债务资产比高达 70。分析师预计，2024 年其营收将下降 11%，至 130 亿美元，净亏损为 2.52 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But in early August, Lumen said it had secured $5 billion in new business (including Microsoft's Azure deal) related to the AI connectivity market. It also said it was in &#34;active discussions&#34; to &#34;secure another $7 billion in sales opportunities&#34; and would aim to &#34;more than double its intercity network miles over the next five years.&#34; It expects the initial payments from those contracts to boost its annual FCF to <em>positive</em> $1 billion to $1.2 billion in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是在八月初，Lumen 表示已获得了价值 50 亿美元的新业务（包括微软 Azure 协议）与人工智能连接市场相关。公司还表示正在&#34;积极讨论&#34;以&#34;获得另外 70 亿美元的销售机会&#34;，并计划在未来五年内&#34;将其城际网络里程超过一倍&#34;。公司预计这些合同的初始付款将使其 2024 年的年度自由现金流增加至正 10 亿至 12 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Lumen's statement suggests it could potentially generate $5 billion to $12 billion in revenues over the next five years ($1 billion to $2.4 billion annually) from its new AI-related contracts. That would equal about 7% to 16% of its estimated revenue in 2023, but we don't know if those tailwinds can offset the ongoing decline of its non-AI business wireline division.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lumen 的声明表明，其未来五年可能从新的人工智能相关合同中获得 50 亿至 120 亿美元的收入（每年 10 亿至 24 亿美元）。这将相当于其 2023 年估计营收的 7% 至 16%，但我们不知道这些助推力是否能抵消其非人工智能业务有线部门持续下滑。</p>
</div><p>Analysts still expect Lumen's revenue to decline in 2025 and 2026 -- so they don't seem convinced its new AI contracts will fix its business. But with an enterprise value of $23 billion, Lumen's stock looks cheap at less than 2 times this year's sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师仍预计，Lumen 的营收将在 2025 年和 2026 年下降，因此他们似乎并不相信其新的人工智能合同能够挽救其业务。但是以 230 亿美元的企业价值来看，Lumen 的股价在今年的销售额不到 2 倍，看起来便宜。</p>
</div><h2>But it probably won't stay ahead of Microsoft over the long term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但它可能无法在长期内保持领先于微软</h2>
</div><p>Lumen outperformed Microsoft in recent months, but that was mainly because the Azure deal brought its stock back from the brink of a delisting. It could be tough for Lumen to maintain that momentum if its new AI deals don't move the needle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lumen 在最近几个月中表现优于微软，但这主要是因为 Azure 协议使其股价从被摘牌的边缘挽回。如果其新的人工智能交易无法带来实质性变化，Lumen 要保持这种势头可能会很困难。</p>
</div><p>As for Microsoft, the tech giant is still firing on all cylinders as it prioritizes the expansion of its cloud, mobile, and AI ecosystems. Under Satya Nadella, who took the helm as its CEO in 2014, Microsoft transformed its productivity software into sticky cloud-based services, expanded Azure's cloud infrastructure platform, invested in ChatGPT's creator OpenAI, and shrewdly integrated the start-up's generative AI tools into its own applications. It also launched new hardware devices and expanded Xbox's gaming business with more acquisitions and cloud-based services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于微软，这家科技巨头仍在全力以赴，优先扩展其云、移动和人工智能生态系统。在 2014 年接任首席执行官的萨提亚·纳德拉的领导下，微软将其生产力软件转变为粘性的基于云的服务，扩大了 Azure 的云基础设施平台，投资了 ChatGPT 的创始人 OpenAI，并巧妙地将这家初创公司的生成式人工智能工具整合到自己的应用程序中。它还推出了新的硬件设备，并通过更多的收购和基于云的服务扩展了 Xbox 的游戏业务。</p>
</div><p>That's why Microsoft's annual revenue increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from fiscal 2014 to fiscal 2024 (which ended last June) as its EPS grew at a CAGR of 16%. Analysts expect its revenue and EPS to grow 14% and 11%, respectively, in fiscal 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么微软的年度营收从 2014 财年到 2024 财年（截至去年六月）以 11% 的复合年增长率增长，其每股收益以 16% 的复合年增长率增长。分析师预计，其营收和每股收益将在 2025 财年分别增长 14% 和 11%。</p>
</div><p>Those double-digit growth rates indicate Microsoft still has room to run. But it also has a market cap of $3.1 trillion, making it the world's third-most valuable company, and its stock isn't cheap at 32 times forward earnings. In other words, a lot of growth has already been baked into Microsoft's stock price -- and it might stay in its holding pattern until its profits catch up to its valuations again. Any near-term issues with Azure, its main growth engine, could also limit its upside potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些两位数的增长率表明微软仍有增长空间。但是，其市值达到了 3.1 万亿美元，使其成为全球第三大市值公司，其股价以 32 倍的市盈率并不便宜。换句话说，微软的股价中已经蕴含了大量增长，直到其利润再次赶上其估值之前，它可能会保持现状。其主要增长引擎 Azure 出现任何近期问题也可能限制其上行潜力。</p>
</div><p>That said, I believe it's still smarter to buy Microsoft as a long-term AI play than Lumen. It's bigger, growing faster, more broadly diversified, and has a much wider moat. Lumen might generate bigger near-term gains than Microsoft, but it could quickly fizzle out if the high costs of its big AI connectivity deals crush its long-term margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，我认为长期来看，购买微软作为人工智能领域的投资比购买 Lumen 更明智。微软规模更大，增长更快，多样化更广泛，护城河更宽阔。Lumen 可能会比微软产生更大的近期收益，但如果其大规模人工智能连接交易的高成本压缩了其长期利润，它可能会迅速消退。</p>
</div>

Better AI Stock: Microsoft vs. Lumen Technologies

- 微软与 Lumen 的合作推动了后者股价反弹，吸引投资者关注。  
- Lumen 面临收入持续下降和高负债，但新 AI 项目或带来增长潜力。  
- 分析师对 Lumen 未来表现持谨慎态度，认为微软更具长期投资价值。

更优质的 AI 股票：微软与 Lumen Technologies 对比