<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.04%）的业务在过去几年发生了巨大变化。这家电商巨头自 2021 年以来的运输基础设施增加了一倍多，扩大了云服务部门，并提高了盈利能力。这些成功推动了股价在 10 月中旬达到 2 万亿美元的估值，创下历史新高。</p>
<p>很难想象未来几年会给股东带来多少好消息。但亚马逊在增长和利润扩张方面仍有很长的发展空间。考虑到这一积极因素，让我们来看看可能推动亚马逊股票中期回报的因素。</p>
<h2><strong>电商和云服务</strong></h2>
<p>最近股票周围的热情大部分可以归因于亚马逊在推动其收入的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）平台上取得的成功。公司在 2022 年放缓了对云服务的新支出承诺的步伐，但现在又开始积极地将工作转移到云端。这对 AWS 来说是个好消息，该服务平台在 2024 年上半年的收入几乎翻了一番。运营收入同比增长到 190 亿美元。</p>
<p>在未来几年，这一领域将会波动，这在你的业务依赖于更广泛的 IT 支出趋势时是可以预料到的。然而，随着该服务平台继续与 <strong>微软</strong> 及其 Azure 平台等竞争对手竞争，股票应该会受益于 AWS。</p>
<p>同时，预计到 2027 年，电商板块将对年度收入贡献更多。自 2020 年以来，亚马逊增加了数百个订单处理和分销中心，以处理更高的电商需求。即使销售量不断扩大，未来几年不需要重复这种高强度的支出水平。换句话说，亚马逊最终可能开始从其零售板块产生可观的利润。</p>
<p>当然，由于 AWS 增长更快，到 2027 年，电商业务可能对底线的影响会较小。但零售板块仍使亚马逊成为一个风险较低的企业，并为公司提供了一个巨大的平台，可以推出产品和服务。</p>
<h2><strong>未来的利润率是否会提高？</strong></h2>
<p>未来最大的问题是亚马逊能否继续允许利润率扩大，而不会牺牲其增长投资。在过去一年左右的时间里，AWS 的支出并没有抵消零售方面较慢的资本投资。因此，该公司在这个指标上几十年来几乎只是勉强实现盈亏平衡后，即将实现两位数的营业利润。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ae736486f5d7ec84095813d495a2d4e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ae736486f5d7ec84095813d495a2d4e.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 AMZN 营运利润率（TTM）数据。</p>
<p>有很大的机会，利润能够在未来几年继续向销售额的 15% 攀升，假设持续的 IT 支出。这种乐观的情景可能会使亚马逊股东获得超越市场的回报，即使从公司目前的 2 万亿美元市值水平来看。</p>
<p>另一方面，缩减的技术预算可能会暂时将亚马逊的利润率拉回到低个位数。该公司还可能发现其他大型增长计划，这些计划在很多年内都不会有回报。这些情景将意味着这只科技股的回报较弱。</p>
<p>然而，对投资者来说最好的消息是，亚马逊拥有充裕的现金流，可以帮助其度过低迷时期。其核心增长市场在未来还有很多年的增长空间。电商目前仅占总零售的 16%，而在亚马逊 1997 年上市时不到 1%。这就是为什么即使在一个低于平均水平的回报期间，投资者也不应该动摇对这家企业的长期信心。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股票前景仍然积极，尽管近期面临挑战。该公司已大幅扩展其运输基础设施和云服务，特别是通过亚马逊云服务（AWS），在 2024 年初实现了收入近翻倍增长。预计到 2027 年，电子商务增长将更多地为利润做出贡献，重点将转向 AWS。如果 IT 支出持续增长，利润率可能提高至 15％，但科技预算潜在的下滑可能会影响回报。尽管如此，亚马逊强劲的现金流和电子商务增长潜力为长期投资者信心提供了坚实基础</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>'s (AMZN 0.04%) business has changed dramatically in the past few years. The e-commerce giant has more than doubled its shipping infrastructure since 2021, expanded its cloud services division, and boosted profitability. Those successes helped push the stock to all-time highs at a valuation of $2 trillion as of mid-October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.04%）的业务在过去几年发生了巨大变化。这家电商巨头自 2021 年以来的运输基础设施增加了一倍多，扩大了云服务部门，并提高了盈利能力。这些成功推动了股价在 10 月中旬达到 2 万亿美元的估值，创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to see how the next several years could bring as much good news to shareholders. But Amazon still has a long runway ahead for both growth and profit expansion. With that positive fact in mind, let's look into the factors likely to drive Amazon's stock returns over the medium term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难想象未来几年会给股东带来多少好消息。但亚马逊在增长和利润扩张方面仍有很长的发展空间。考虑到这一积极因素，让我们来看看可能推动亚马逊股票中期回报的因素。</p>
</div><h2><strong>E-commerce and cloud services</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>电商和云服务</strong></h2>
</div><p>Most of the recent enthusiasm around the stock can be tied to Amazon's success in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) platform that powers most of its earnings. Companies slowed their pace of new spending commitments on cloud services in 2022, but they're now back to aggressively moving work onto the cloud. That's great news for AWS, which nearly doubled its earnings in the first half of 2024. Operating income jumped to $19 billion, year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近股票周围的热情大部分可以归因于亚马逊在推动其收入的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）平台上取得的成功。公司在 2022 年放缓了对云服务的新支出承诺的步伐，但现在又开始积极地将工作转移到云端。这对 AWS 来说是个好消息，该服务平台在 2024 年上半年的收入几乎翻了一番。运营收入同比增长到 190 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This segment will be volatile over the next few years, which is to be expected when your business depends on broader IT spending trends. Yet the stock should see a lift from AWS as that services platform continues competing against rivals like <strong>Microsoft</strong> and its Azure platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来几年，这一领域将会波动，这在你的业务依赖于更广泛的 IT 支出趋势时是可以预料到的。然而，随着该服务平台继续与 <strong>微软</strong> 及其 Azure 平台等竞争对手竞争，股票应该会受益于 AWS。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, look for the e-commerce segment to contribute more toward annual earnings by 2027. Amazon added hundreds of fulfillment and distribution centers since 2020 to handle higher e-commerce demand. That intense spending level won't need to be repeated in the next several years, even as sales volumes keep expanding. In other words, Amazon could finally start generating significant profits from its retailing segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同时，预计到 2027 年，电商板块将对年度收入贡献更多。自 2020 年以来，亚马逊增加了数百个订单处理和分销中心，以处理更高的电商需求。即使销售量不断扩大，未来几年不需要重复这种高强度的支出水平。换句话说，亚马逊最终可能开始从其零售板块产生可观的利润。</p>
</div><p>Sure, the e-commerce business will likely matter less to the bottom line by 2027, thanks to faster growth in AWS. But the retailing segment still makes Amazon a less risky business and gives the company a huge platform from which it can launch products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，由于 AWS 增长更快，到 2027 年，电商业务可能对底线的影响会较小。但零售板块仍使亚马逊成为一个风险较低的企业，并为公司提供了一个巨大的平台，可以推出产品和服务。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Higher margins ahead?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>未来的利润率是否会提高？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The biggest question going forward is to what extent Amazon can keep allowing profit margins to expand without shortchanging its growth investments. In the past year or so, spending in AWS hasn't offset slower capital investments on the retailing side. As a result, the company is close to generating a double-digit operating profit after barely breaking even on this metric for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来最大的问题是亚马逊能否继续允许利润率扩大，而不会牺牲其增长投资。在过去一年左右的时间里，AWS 的支出并没有抵消零售方面较慢的资本投资。因此，该公司在这个指标上几十年来几乎只是勉强实现盈亏平衡后，即将实现两位数的营业利润。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ae736486f5d7ec84095813d495a2d4e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ae736486f5d7ec84095813d495a2d4e.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 AMZN 营运利润率（TTM）数据。</p>
</div><p>There's a good chance that profitability will keep climbing toward 15% of sales in the next few years, assuming continued IT spending. That optimistic scenario could see Amazon shareholders accruing market-thumping returns, even from the company's current $2 trillion market cap level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有很大的机会，利润能够在未来几年继续向销售额的 15% 攀升，假设持续的 IT 支出。这种乐观的情景可能会使亚马逊股东获得超越市场的回报，即使从公司目前的 2 万亿美元市值水平来看。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, shrinking tech budgets might send Amazon's profit margin back down toward the low single digits, at least temporarily. The company might also find other large growth initiatives that won't pay off for many years. These scenarios would mean weaker returns for this tech stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，缩减的技术预算可能会暂时将亚马逊的利润率拉回到低个位数。该公司还可能发现其他大型增长计划，这些计划在很多年内都不会有回报。这些情景将意味着这只科技股的回报较弱。</p>
</div><p>Yet the best news for investors is that Amazon has ample cash flow that can help see it through a downturn. And its core growth markets have many more years of gains ahead. E-commerce makes up just 16% of total retailing today, compared to less than 1% when Amazon went public in 1997. That's why even a period of below-average returns shouldn't shake investors' long-term confidence in this business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对投资者来说最好的消息是，亚马逊拥有充裕的现金流，可以帮助其度过低迷时期。其核心增长市场在未来还有很多年的增长空间。电商目前仅占总零售的 16%，而在亚马逊 1997 年上市时不到 1%。这就是为什么即使在一个低于平均水平的回报期间，投资者也不应该动摇对这家企业的长期信心。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 3 Years?

- 亚马逊在过去几年内显著扩展了其运输和云服务基础设施。  
- AWS 在 2024 年上半年几乎翻倍的收益推动了公司盈利增长。  
- 尽管面临挑战，亚马逊仍有长期增长潜力，零售业务将逐步贡献更多利润。

亚马逊的股票在三年后会达到什么水平？