<p>当前牛市来势汹汹，但已经两年了，投资者可能会担心它是否有耗尽动力的危险。</p>
<p>自 2022 年 10 月 12 日相对低点以来，<strong>标普 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.18%）在接下来的两年内上涨了 62.7%。该指数在今年 1 月达到了新的历史高点，大约在熊市底部后的 15 个月，自那以后迅速攀升。</p>
<p>回顾历史可以为当前牛市提供一些有价值的见解，以及投资者可以期待股票价格上涨多少。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2NDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1zaWxob3VldHRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2NDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1zaWxob3VldHRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>历史的见解</h2>
<p>过去两年的 62.7% 上涨幅度大约是二战结束以来牛市前两年的平均水平。</p>
<p>但这个平均水平受到 2009 年和 2020 年开始的最近牛市的极大影响。指数在 2009 年底的两年内几乎翻了一番，从 2020 年低点到 2022 年初的高点更是翻了一番多。</p>
<p>牛市前两年的中位数增长略低，为 58%。当前牛市是二战结束以来增长第四快的。在增长速度超过当前牛市的三个牛市中，只有一个（2009 年）看到指数在第三年上涨。</p>
<p>平均而言，牛市第三年的增长往往较为温和。在经历了两年的牛市后，中位数增长仅为 2%。将近一半的时间，回报是负面的。</p>
<p>另一个对当前牛市不利的因素是前一次熊市与经济衰退无关。股票通常会迅速从由经济衰退引起的价格低迷中恢复，但通常不会像非经济衰退熊市那样迅速恢复。</p>
<p><strong>查尔斯·施瓦布</strong> 和 The Leuthold Group 发现，没有经济衰退先导的牛市的平均两年回报仅为 40.5%，但其中包括 1947 年的 7.5% 两年增长，该时期包括了一次经济衰退熊市。尽管如此，当前牛市是二战后非经济衰退熊市中最强劲的复苏。</p>
<p>此外，经济衰退后的平均牛市持续时间为 61 个月，而非经济衰退后的牛市持续时间仅为 33 个月。这可能意味着市场在达到相对高点前仅剩下几个月。</p>
<p>因此，投资者可能会迎来回归均值。随着我们进入牛市第三年，股市的未来可能更像平均回报。但仍有一些理由保持乐观。</p>
<h2>没有放缓的迹象</h2>
<p>历史平均水平确实对当前牛市的延续起到了不利作用，但如果你仔细观察市场和整体经济，情况会好很多。如果历史上的某个时刻看起来像今天的市场，那就是上世纪 90 年代中期。</p>
<p>美联储在上世纪 90 年代成功实现了&#34;软着陆&#34;，就在市场经历了几年由互联网革命推动的增长。将&#34;互联网&#34;替换为&#34;人工智能&#34;，你可能会得到 30 年后类似的故事。作为参考，标普 500 指数在牛市第五年的 1995 年回报率为 34%。</p>
<p>有很多因素支持牛市继续第三年，甚至更长时间。尽管 8 月份出现了一份糟糕的就业报告，就业市场仍然强劲。随着美联储计划在 2025 年降息，只要高通胀不再出现，它应该会继续支持就业市场。软着陆的可能性越来越大。</p>
<p>尽管牛市主要受到大型科技公司在人工智能上的大规模投资推动，但有迹象表明市场表现正在向更广泛的方向发展。像公用事业和消费品等更具防御性的行业在牛市第二年表现强劲，利率稳定。与此同时，货币供应的加速可能会推动中小市值股票明年的更广泛复苏。</p>
<p>常听到&#34;牛市不会因为年龄而终结&#34;这句话。通常会有一个（或两个）催化剂引发下一个熊市。这些催化剂通常是独特且不可预测的。如果人们能预见到它们，它们就不会对市场产生如此大的影响。</p>
<p>也就是说，目前情况看起来不错，没有理由不保持乐观。但投资者应始终意识到下一个熊市可能就在眼前。</p>

JUST 美国大型股 ETF - Goldman Sachs

<p>当前的牛市已经两年了，标普 500 指数自 2022 年 10 月低点以来上涨了 62.7%。历史数据显示，牛市的前两年平均涨幅为 58%，但第三年的涨幅往往较为平缓，平均仅为 2%。当前市场是自二战以来非衰退熊市中最强劲的复苏。尽管历史平均数据表明可能会放缓，但强劲的就业状况和 2025 年潜在的美联储降息可能会支撑持续增长，让人联想起上世纪 90 年代中期的科技繁荣</p>

<p>The current bull market has come on fast and furious, but at two years old investors may be wondering if it's in danger of running out of gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前牛市来势汹汹，但已经两年了，投资者可能会担心它是否有耗尽动力的危险。</p>
</div><p>Since hitting a relative low on Oct. 12, 2022, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.18%) increased 62.7% over the following two years. The index reached a new all-time high in January this year, about 15 months after the bottom of the bear market, and it's continued climbing quickly since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 10 月 12 日相对低点以来，<strong>标普 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.18%）在接下来的两年内上涨了 62.7%。该指数在今年 1 月达到了新的历史高点，大约在熊市底部后的 15 个月，自那以后迅速攀升。</p>
</div><p>Looking to history can provide some valuable insights into the current bull market and how much higher investors can expect stocks to climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾历史可以为当前牛市提供一些有价值的见解，以及投资者可以期待股票价格上涨多少。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2NDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1zaWxob3VldHRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794649%2Fgettyimages-bull-silhouette.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Here's what history has to say</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史的见解</h2>
</div><p>The 62.7% climb over the past two years is about average for the first two years of a bull market since the end of World War II.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去两年的 62.7% 上涨幅度大约是二战结束以来牛市前两年的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>But that average is pulled considerably higher by the most recent bull markets starting in 2009 and 2020. The index nearly doubled within two years of the 2009 bottom, and it more than doubled from the lows of 2020 to the high at the start of 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这个平均水平受到 2009 年和 2020 年开始的最近牛市的极大影响。指数在 2009 年底的两年内几乎翻了一番，从 2020 年低点到 2022 年初的高点更是翻了一番多。</p>
</div><p>The median gain in a bull market over the first two years is a bit lower, at 58%. The current bull market represents the fourth-fastest recovery since the end of the war. Of the three that grew faster than the current bull market, only one (2009) saw the index move higher in the third year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>牛市前两年的中位数增长略低，为 58%。当前牛市是二战结束以来增长第四快的。在增长速度超过当前牛市的三个牛市中，只有一个（2009 年）看到指数在第三年上涨。</p>
</div><p>On average, third-year gains for a bull market tend to be muted. The median gain after a two-year bull run is just 2%. Nearly half the time, returns are negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均而言，牛市第三年的增长往往较为温和。在经历了两年的牛市后，中位数增长仅为 2%。将近一半的时间，回报是负面的。</p>
</div><p>Another factor working against the current bull market is that the preceding bear market wasn't tied to a recession. Stocks historically recover quickly from depressed prices caused by a recession, but they don't usually recover as quickly from a non-recession bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个对当前牛市不利的因素是前一次熊市与经济衰退无关。股票通常会迅速从由经济衰退引起的价格低迷中恢复，但通常不会像非经济衰退熊市那样迅速恢复。</p>
</div><p><strong>Charles Schwab</strong> and The Leuthold Group found that the average two-year return from a bull market that wasn't preceded by a recession was just 40.5%, but that includes the 7.5% two-year gain from 1947, which includes a recession bear market during that period. Even so, the current bull market represents the strongest recovery from a non-recession bear market since World War II.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查尔斯·施瓦布</strong> 和 The Leuthold Group 发现，没有经济衰退先导的牛市的平均两年回报仅为 40.5%，但其中包括 1947 年的 7.5% 两年增长，该时期包括了一次经济衰退熊市。尽管如此，当前牛市是二战后非经济衰退熊市中最强劲的复苏。</p>
</div><p>What's more, the average bull market following a recession is 61 months versus just 33 months for one that doesn't follow a recession. That could mean just a few months left before the market hits a relative high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，经济衰退后的平均牛市持续时间为 61 个月，而非经济衰退后的牛市持续时间仅为 33 个月。这可能意味着市场在达到相对高点前仅剩下几个月。</p>
</div><p>As such, investors may be in store for a reversion to the mean. The future of the stock market may look a lot more like the average returns as we enter the third year of the bull market. But there are some reasons to remain optimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，投资者可能会迎来回归均值。随着我们进入牛市第三年，股市的未来可能更像平均回报。但仍有一些理由保持乐观。</p>
</div><h2>No signs of slowing down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>没有放缓的迹象</h2>
</div><p>Historical averages are certainly working against the continuation of the current bull market, but if you take a good look at the market and the economy as a whole, things look a lot brighter. If any point in history looks like today's market, its the mid-90s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史平均水平确实对当前牛市的延续起到了不利作用，但如果你仔细观察市场和整体经济，情况会好很多。如果历史上的某个时刻看起来像今天的市场，那就是上世纪 90 年代中期。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve managed to pull off a &#34;soft landing&#34; in the 1990s, just as the market saw several years of growth fueled by the internet revolution. Replace &#34;internet&#34; with &#34;artificial intelligence&#34; and you might have a similar story 30 years later. For reference, the S&amp;P 500 returned 34% in 1995, the fifth year of the bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在上世纪 90 年代成功实现了&#34;软着陆&#34;，就在市场经历了几年由互联网革命推动的增长。将&#34;互联网&#34;替换为&#34;人工智能&#34;，你可能会得到 30 年后类似的故事。作为参考，标普 500 指数在牛市第五年的 1995 年回报率为 34%。</p>
</div><p>There are a lot of things working in favor of the continuation of the bull market for a third year, if not longer. Despite one bad jobs report in August, employment remains strong. With the Fed set to cut interest rates in 2025, it should provide continued support for the jobs market as long as high inflation doesn't rear its ugly head again. A soft landing looks increasingly likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有很多因素支持牛市继续第三年，甚至更长时间。尽管 8 月份出现了一份糟糕的就业报告，就业市场仍然强劲。随着美联储计划在 2025 年降息，只要高通胀不再出现，它应该会继续支持就业市场。软着陆的可能性越来越大。</p>
</div><p>While the bull market has mostly been driven by big tech companies with massive investments in artificial intelligence, there are signs that the market performance is broadening out. More defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples have seen strong performance in the second year of the bull market as interest rates stabilized. Meanwhile, an accelerating money supply could fuel a broader recovery from mid- and small-cap stocks next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管牛市主要受到大型科技公司在人工智能上的大规模投资推动，但有迹象表明市场表现正在向更广泛的方向发展。像公用事业和消费品等更具防御性的行业在牛市第二年表现强劲，利率稳定。与此同时，货币供应的加速可能会推动中小市值股票明年的更广泛复苏。</p>
</div><p>It's common to hear the phrase &#34;bull markets don't die of old age.&#34; There's usually a catalyst (or two) that brings about the next bear market. Those catalysts are typically unique and unpredictable. If people saw them coming, they wouldn't have such a big impact on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>常听到&#34;牛市不会因为年龄而终结&#34;这句话。通常会有一个（或两个）催化剂引发下一个熊市。这些催化剂通常是独特且不可预测的。如果人们能预见到它们，它们就不会对市场产生如此大的影响。</p>
</div><p>That is to say, things look good right now, and there's no reason not to remain optimistic. But investors should always remain aware that the next bear market could be right around the corner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，目前情况看起来不错，没有理由不保持乐观。但投资者应始终意识到下一个熊市可能就在眼前。</p>
</div>

The Bull Market Just Turned 2 Years Old. Here's What History Says Happens Next.

- 当前牛市已持续两年，标普 500 指数上涨 62.7%。  
- 历史数据显示，非衰退熊市后的牛市平均回报为 40.5%。  
- 尽管面临挑战，市场前景仍乐观，尤其是就业和技术投资。

牛市刚刚迎来两周年。历史告诉我们接下来可能会发生什么