<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.26%) 股票目前交易价格约为 230 美元，但我认为它的交易时间不多了。到年底，如果股价跌至 200 美元以下，我不会感到意外，因为基本面不支持苹果目前的股价。</p>
<p>苹果业务面临很大压力，除非发生重大变化，否则股票将迎来一轮调整。</p>
<h2>苹果的营收在 2022 年达到峰值后就没有增长过</h2>
<p>苹果的业务无需多言。虽然苹果的设备在数百万（甚至数十亿）人手中，但似乎苹果的营收已经达到峰值。自 2022 年以来，苹果的营收没有增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 营收（TTM）数据。</p>
<p>公司需要增长来维持不断增长的股价，而苹果并未表现出这一点。当苹果在万圣节之夜（一个可怕的财报发布时间！）公布最新业绩时，我们将了解更多情况，但初步迹象并不乐观。</p>
<p>苹果在本季度推出了 iPhone 16，多份报告显示 iPhone 16 的销售不如公司预期。由于 iPhone 销售占苹果总营收的约一半，这一业务板块必须表现良好才能使其他业务蓬勃发展。这一报道的弱点导致华尔街分析师调整了对即将到来季度的预期，共识每股收益（EPS）预期从 30 天前的 1.60 美元下降至现在的 1.55 美元。</p>
<p>在财报发布前预期下调从未是一个好兆头。如果苹果的其他业绩不佳，如果股价已经处于极高估值，那么不要感到意外股价会受到打击。</p>
<h2>尽管业绩平平，苹果的股价仍享有巨大溢价</h2>
<p>苹果的股价溢价远高于大多数投资者意识到的水平。以 35 倍滚动盈利和 31 倍预期盈利计算，苹果的股价非常昂贵。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 市盈率数据。</p>
<p>虽然其他股票的估值更高，但这些公司正在发布令人印象深刻的增长数字。</p>
<p>从长期来看，股价波动与盈利增长密切相关。因此，当像 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%) 平均每年实现 10% 的回报时，公司通常需要超过这一水平的盈利增长才能持续击败市场，_如果_这两种证券以相同的估值交易。</p>
<p>上一季度，苹果的每股收益（EPS）以 10% 的速度增长。在 2024 财年第四季度（截至 9 月 30 日左右），分析师预计增长 14%。这两个数字要么正好达到标普 500 的长期平均水平，要么略高。然而，考虑到标普 500 的滚动盈利为 24.7 倍，预期盈利为 23.8 倍，苹果的估值分别比这些指标高出 43% 和 32%。</p>
<p>最优秀的企业通常因其执行力和被认为稳定而获得溢价估值，而苹果绝对符合这一标准。问题是，这值多少钱？我无法为市场或您决定，但对我来说，苹果目前获得的溢价太高。</p>
<p>现在有太多股票可以买，它们的估值远低于苹果，增长速度也比苹果快。购买这些股票而不是苹果可能会提高我的长期回报，因此它们是更好的选择。</p>
<p>与此同时，如果苹果在第四季度的业绩不佳，其股价可能会跌破 200 美元，因为当前的股价意味着公司必须完美执行。初步迹象表明它并没有做到，这可能是股价下跌所需的催化剂。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果股票面临压力，预测显示其股价可能会在年底前跌破目前的交易价格。自 2022 年达到顶峰以来，公司的营收一直停滞不前，令人失望的 iPhone 16 销量导致分析师下调了盈利预期。尽管估值较高，但苹果的增长速度未能跟上其高溢价价格，引发对其未来表现的担忧。如果即将公布的财报不符合预期，预计股价将出现显著下跌</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.26%) stock is currently trading around $230, but I think it's trading on borrowed time. By the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if the stock was below $200, because the fundamentals don't support Apple's current stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.26%) 股票目前交易价格约为 230 美元，但我认为它的交易时间不多了。到年底，如果股价跌至 200 美元以下，我不会感到意外，因为基本面不支持苹果目前的股价。</p>
</div><p>There is a lot of pressure on Apple's business, and unless something drastic changes, the stock is due for a correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果业务面临很大压力，除非发生重大变化，否则股票将迎来一轮调整。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's revenue peaked in 2022 and hasn't grown since</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的营收在 2022 年达到峰值后就没有增长过</h2>
</div><p>Apple's business needs no introduction. Its devices are in the hands of millions (if not billions) of people, although Apple seems to have hit a peak in its revenue. Since 2022, Apple's revenue hasn't increased any.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的业务无需多言。虽然苹果的设备在数百万（甚至数十亿）人手中，但似乎苹果的营收已经达到峰值。自 2022 年以来，苹果的营收没有增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 营收（TTM）数据。</p>
</div><p>Companies need growth to sustain an increasing stock price, and Apple hasn't shown that. We'll find out more about Apple's latest results when it reports on Halloween night (a scary time to report earnings!), but early indications aren't great.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司需要增长来维持不断增长的股价，而苹果并未表现出这一点。当苹果在万圣节之夜（一个可怕的财报发布时间！）公布最新业绩时，我们将了解更多情况，但初步迹象并不乐观。</p>
</div><p>Apple released the iPhone 16 during the quarter, and multiple reports have indicated that sales of the iPhone 16 aren't what the company expected. Since iPhone sales make up about half of Apple's total revenue, this segment must do well for the rest of the business to thrive. This reported weakness has caused Wall Street analysts to tweak their expectations for the upcoming quarter, as the consensus earnings per share (EPS) projection has declined from $1.60 30 days ago to $1.55 now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在本季度推出了 iPhone 16，多份报告显示 iPhone 16 的销售不如公司预期。由于 iPhone 销售占苹果总营收的约一半，这一业务板块必须表现良好才能使其他业务蓬勃发展。这一报道的弱点导致华尔街分析师调整了对即将到来季度的预期，共识每股收益（EPS）预期从 30 天前的 1.60 美元下降至现在的 1.55 美元。</p>
</div><p>Falling projections heading into earnings are never a good sign. If the rest of Apple's results aren't great, don't be surprised if the stock takes a hit, as it's trading at an incredibly pricey valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财报发布前预期下调从未是一个好兆头。如果苹果的其他业绩不佳，如果股价已经处于极高估值，那么不要感到意外股价会受到打击。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's stock fetches a massive premium despite lackluster results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管业绩平平，苹果的股价仍享有巨大溢价</h2>
</div><p>Apple's stock fetches a far greater premium than most investors realize. At 35 times trailing earnings and 31 times forward earnings, Apple's stock is very expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的股价溢价远高于大多数投资者意识到的水平。以 35 倍滚动盈利和 31 倍预期盈利计算，苹果的股价非常昂贵。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 市盈率数据。</p>
</div><p>While other stocks are trading at more expensive valuations, those companies are posting impressive growth numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然其他股票的估值更高，但这些公司正在发布令人印象深刻的增长数字。</p>
</div><p>Over the long haul, stock price movements are heavily correlated to earnings growth. So, when a benchmark index like the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%) averages a 10% return per year, that's the level of earnings growth a company typically needs to beat the market consistently, <em>if</em> the two securities trade at the same valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长期来看，股价波动与盈利增长密切相关。因此，当像 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%) 平均每年实现 10% 的回报时，公司通常需要超过这一水平的盈利增长才能持续击败市场，_如果_这两种证券以相同的估值交易。</p>
</div><p>Last quarter, Apple's earnings per share (EPS) grew at a 10% pace. In fourth-quarter fiscal year 2024 (ending around Sept. 30), analysts expect 14% growth. Both figures are either right at the S&amp;P 500's long-term average or slightly higher. However, with the S&amp;P 500 trading at 24.7 times trailing earnings and 23.8 times forward earnings, Apple holds a 43% and 32% premium to those respective valuation metrics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一季度，苹果的每股收益（EPS）以 10% 的速度增长。在 2024 财年第四季度（截至 9 月 30 日左右），分析师预计增长 14%。这两个数字要么正好达到标普 500 的长期平均水平，要么略高。然而，考虑到标普 500 的滚动盈利为 24.7 倍，预期盈利为 23.8 倍，苹果的估值分别比这些指标高出 43% 和 32%。</p>
</div><p>Best-in-class businesses often get a premium valuation due to their execution and perceived steadiness, which Apple absolutely qualifies for. The question is, how much is that worth? I can't decide that for the market or you, but for me, the current premium Apple gets is far too high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最优秀的企业通常因其执行力和被认为稳定而获得溢价估值，而苹果绝对符合这一标准。问题是，这值多少钱？我无法为市场或您决定，但对我来说，苹果目前获得的溢价太高。</p>
</div><p>There are way too many stocks I can buy right now that trade at far cheaper valuations that are growing faster than Apple. Buying these stocks instead of Apple will likely boost my long-term returns, so they make for much better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在有太多股票可以买，它们的估值远低于苹果，增长速度也比苹果快。购买这些股票而不是苹果可能会提高我的长期回报，因此它们是更好的选择。</p>
</div><p>In the meantime, if Apple doesn't report great Q4 results, its stock could sink below the $200 mark, as its current price tag means the company must execute to perfection. Early indications are that it hasn't, and that could be the catalyst the stock needs to send it tumbling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，如果苹果在第四季度的业绩不佳，其股价可能会跌破 200 美元，因为当前的股价意味着公司必须完美执行。初步迹象表明它并没有做到，这可能是股价下跌所需的催化剂。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Apple Stock Will Be Below $200 by the End of the Year

- 苹果公司股价面临下行压力，预计年底可能低于当前水平。  
- 2022 年后，苹果收入未增长，iPhone 16 销售不佳影响整体业绩。  
- 当前高估值下，若第四季度业绩不佳，股价可能大幅下跌。

预测：苹果的股票将在年底前跌至 200 美元以下