<p>大家准备好了吗？我们正式进入本季度财报季的核心阶段。<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.50%) -- 即 Google 和 YouTube 的母公司 -- 将于 10 月 29 日收盘后公布财报。目前，该公司处于一个复杂的境地。一方面，利润空前高涨。另一方面，它正陷入多起垄断诉讼之中，并面临来自人工智能（AI）初创公司的激烈竞争。</p>
<p>Alphabet 股价已从几个月前的高点下跌了 14.6%。在 Q3 财报发布之前，您是否应该抓住股价下跌的机会买入？</p>
<h2>谷歌搜索市场份额</h2>
<p>多年来，投资者和初创公司认为与谷歌搜索竞争是不可能的。该公司在搜索引擎领域拥有几乎垄断地位（市场份额超过 90%），并拥有巨额资金来排挤任何小竞争对手。</p>
<p>一切都改变了，当 OpenAI 发布 ChatGPT 时。在得到 <strong>微软</strong>（谷歌搜索的最大竞争对手）的投资支持下，ChatGPT 迅速发展到超过 1 亿用户，凭借其先进的语言模型和搜索功能。随着这一增长，数十家其他初创公司成立，试图挑战搜索垄断。到目前为止，谷歌一直能够相对稳定地保持其市场份额，估计在所有平台上的市场份额为 90%。然而，在台式电脑上，谷歌正在失去一些地盘，微软具有操作系统优势，并将必应/ChatGPT 搜索引擎推送给用户。据估计，谷歌在台式电脑上的市场份额已下降到不到 80%，尽管这一领域每年变得不那么重要。</p>
<p>谷歌还面临来自美国司法部（DOJ）的指控，后者希望打破其垄断地位。它希望 -- 取决于诉讼是否在法庭上站得住脚 -- 停止向 <strong>苹果</strong> 等公司支付分发费用，利用其数据建立垄断，并在基于搜索的文本广告领域创造竞争。停止向苹果支付费用是直截了当的，但目前尚不清楚司法部将如何执行这些其他补救措施。</p>
<p>尽管有所有这些新闻头条和对竞争的担忧，Alphabet 的整体收入和利润不断飙升，主要受到谷歌搜索的推动。上个季度，谷歌搜索收入增长到 485 亿美元，而去年同期为 427 亿美元。如果竞争对谷歌构成威胁，那么这种影响尚未体现在财务数据中。</p>
<h2>密切关注谷歌云部门</h2>
<p>Alphabet 增长最快的部门是谷歌云。这家云基础设施提供商受益于对人工智能产品的激增需求，这需要大量在云端的支出。上个季度，该部门的收入同比增长了 29%，达到 103 亿美元。这是一个年化营收超过 400 亿美元的速度。仅仅几年前的 2020 年，谷歌云的季度收入仅为 30 亿美元。</p>
<p>随着该部门规模扩大，其盈利能力也大幅提升。上个季度，谷歌云的营业收入超过 10 亿美元。随着云计算转型的一般助力仍在持续，谷歌云可以在未来五年内轻松增长到 1000 亿美元的年收入。如果利润率能够扩大到 20%，那么这个曾经微不足道的部门在 Alphabet 帝国内将创造 200 亿美元的未来年度收益。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/769c69830bc7d9f71851894c90c76a48.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/769c69830bc7d9f71851894c90c76a48.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG 市盈率数据来源：YCharts</p>
<h2>您应该购买这支股票吗？</h2>
<p>Alphabet 的头条新闻看起来令人担忧。股价也受到这些头条新闻的影响，股价比 2024 年初的高点下跌了约 15%。</p>
<p>然而，如果我们看公司的基本财务表现，它仍然保持着高水平。谷歌搜索和谷歌云持续实现强劲增长，而我们甚至还没有谈论 YouTube 或 Waymo。该公司目前的营业利润率约为 30%，随着谷歌云的规模扩大，这一比例应会增加。管理层不断回购股票并减少流通股份，这将有助于长期内每股收益（EPS）的增长。</p>
<p>在股价回调之后，Alphabet 股票现在的市盈率（P/E）为 23.5。这远低于标普 500 指数的 30。Alphabet 的 EPS 增长速度可以超过该指数。从这个角度来看，股票在 10 月 29 日 Q3 财报公布前看起来是一个很容易的买入选择。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>谷歌母公司 Alphabet (GOOG) 定于 10 月 29 日发布第三季度财报，此时正值竞争加剧和持续的垄断诉讼之际。尽管股价下跌了 14.6%，但公司表现出强劲的财务业绩，谷歌搜索业务收入达到 395 亿美元，谷歌云业务同比增长 29%。股票的市盈率为 23.5，低于标普 500 指数的 30，表明有增长潜力。分析师建议在财报发布前考虑购买该股，鉴于其坚实的基本面和管理层的股票回购策略</p>

<p>Get ready everyone, we are officially entering the meat of this quarter's earnings season. <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.50%) -- parent company of Google and YouTube -- is set to report earnings after the closing bell on Oct. 29. The company is in a complicated position at the moment. On the one hand, profits have never been higher. On the other hand, it is in the throes of multiple monopoly lawsuits and is seeing an onslaught of competition from artificial intelligence (AI) start-ups.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大家准备好了吗？我们正式进入本季度财报季的核心阶段。<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.50%) -- 即 Google 和 YouTube 的母公司 -- 将于 10 月 29 日收盘后公布财报。目前，该公司处于一个复杂的境地。一方面，利润空前高涨。另一方面，它正陷入多起垄断诉讼之中，并面临来自人工智能（AI）初创公司的激烈竞争。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet stock has fallen 14.6% from highs set just a few months ago. Should you take the opportunity to buy the dip on the stock before Q3 earnings are released?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 股价已从几个月前的高点下跌了 14.6%。在 Q3 财报发布之前，您是否应该抓住股价下跌的机会买入？</p>
</div><h2>Google Search market share</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>谷歌搜索市场份额</h2>
</div><p>For years, investors and start-ups thought it was impossible to compete with Google Search. The company had a virtual monopoly in search engines (greater than 90% market share) and an immense war chest to push out any small competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，投资者和初创公司认为与谷歌搜索竞争是不可能的。该公司在搜索引擎领域拥有几乎垄断地位（市场份额超过 90%），并拥有巨额资金来排挤任何小竞争对手。</p>
</div><p>That all changed when OpenAI released ChatGPT. Fueled by an investment from <strong>Microsoft</strong> (Google Search's biggest competitor), ChatGPT quickly grew to over 100 million users with its advanced language model and search features. In the wake of this growth, dozens of other start-ups have been formed to try and tackle the search monopoly. So far, Google has been able to retain its market share fairly well, with an estimated 90% share across all platforms. However, it is losing a bit of ground on desktops, where Microsoft has an operating system advantage and is pushing the Bing/ChatGPT search engine onto users. Google's market share is estimated to have fallen to under 80% on desktops, although this segment is getting less important every year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一切都改变了，当 OpenAI 发布 ChatGPT 时。在得到 <strong>微软</strong>（谷歌搜索的最大竞争对手）的投资支持下，ChatGPT 迅速发展到超过 1 亿用户，凭借其先进的语言模型和搜索功能。随着这一增长，数十家其他初创公司成立，试图挑战搜索垄断。到目前为止，谷歌一直能够相对稳定地保持其市场份额，估计在所有平台上的市场份额为 90%。然而，在台式电脑上，谷歌正在失去一些地盘，微软具有操作系统优势，并将必应/ChatGPT 搜索引擎推送给用户。据估计，谷歌在台式电脑上的市场份额已下降到不到 80%，尽管这一领域每年变得不那么重要。</p>
</div><p>Google is also facing charges from the Department of Justice (DOJ) in the United States, which wants to break its monopoly. It is hoping -- depending on if the lawsuits hold up in court -- to stop its distribution payments to companies like <strong>Apple</strong>, using its data to build a monopoly, and create competition in search-based text advertising. Stopping payments to Apple is straightforward, but it is unclear how the DOJ will enact these other remedies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌还面临来自美国司法部（DOJ）的指控，后者希望打破其垄断地位。它希望 -- 取决于诉讼是否在法庭上站得住脚 -- 停止向 <strong>苹果</strong> 等公司支付分发费用，利用其数据建立垄断，并在基于搜索的文本广告领域创造竞争。停止向苹果支付费用是直截了当的，但目前尚不清楚司法部将如何执行这些其他补救措施。</p>
</div><p>Even with all these news headlines and worries about competition, Alphabet's overall revenue and profits keep soaring, mostly driven by Google Search. Last quarter, Google Search revenue grew to $48.5 billion compared to $42.7 billion in the same period a year prior. If the competition is coming for Google, it hasn't shown up in the financials yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有所有这些新闻头条和对竞争的担忧，Alphabet 的整体收入和利润不断飙升，主要受到谷歌搜索的推动。上个季度，谷歌搜索收入增长到 485 亿美元，而去年同期为 427 亿美元。如果竞争对谷歌构成威胁，那么这种影响尚未体现在财务数据中。</p>
</div><h2>Watch the Google Cloud division closely</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>密切关注谷歌云部门</h2>
</div><p>The fastest-growing division for Alphabet is Google Cloud. The cloud infrastructure provider is benefiting greatly from the booming demand for AI products, which require tons of spending on the cloud. Segment revenue grew 29% year over year last quarter to $10.3 billion. That is an annualized run rate of over $40 billion. Just a few years ago in 2020, Google Cloud quarterly revenue was only $3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 增长最快的部门是谷歌云。这家云基础设施提供商受益于对人工智能产品的激增需求，这需要大量在云端的支出。上个季度，该部门的收入同比增长了 29%，达到 103 亿美元。这是一个年化营收超过 400 亿美元的速度。仅仅几年前的 2020 年，谷歌云的季度收入仅为 30 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>As the division scales, it is getting much more profitable as well. Google Cloud operating income was over $1 billion last quarter. With the general tailwind from the transition to cloud computing still at its back, Google Cloud can easily grow to $100 billion in annual revenue within the next five years. If profit margins can expand to 20%, that is $20 billion in future annual earnings from this once-tiny division within the Alphabet empire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着该部门规模扩大，其盈利能力也大幅提升。上个季度，谷歌云的营业收入超过 10 亿美元。随着云计算转型的一般助力仍在持续，谷歌云可以在未来五年内轻松增长到 1000 亿美元的年收入。如果利润率能够扩大到 20%，那么这个曾经微不足道的部门在 Alphabet 帝国内将创造 200 亿美元的未来年度收益。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/769c69830bc7d9f71851894c90c76a48.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/769c69830bc7d9f71851894c90c76a48.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOG 市盈率数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy the stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>您应该购买这支股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>The headlines for Alphabet look scary. The stock has reacted to these headlines, with shares down around 15% from highs put in earlier in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的头条新闻看起来令人担忧。股价也受到这些头条新闻的影响，股价比 2024 年初的高点下跌了约 15%。</p>
</div><p>However, if we look at the company's underlying financial performance, it is still performing at a high level. Google Search and Google Cloud keep putting up strong growth figures, and we haven't even talked about YouTube or Waymo. The company currently has an operating margin of around 30%, which should expand as Google Cloud continues to scale up. Management keeps buying back stock and reducing shares outstanding, which will help earnings per share (EPS) grow over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果我们看公司的基本财务表现，它仍然保持着高水平。谷歌搜索和谷歌云持续实现强劲增长，而我们甚至还没有谈论 YouTube 或 Waymo。该公司目前的营业利润率约为 30%，随着谷歌云的规模扩大，这一比例应会增加。管理层不断回购股票并减少流通股份，这将有助于长期内每股收益（EPS）的增长。</p>
</div><p>After the drawdown, Alphabet stock now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 23.5. This is well below the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> of 30. Alphabet can grow EPS at a faster rate than the index. When put in this perspective, the stock looks like an easy buy before Q3 earnings on Oct. 29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股价回调之后，Alphabet 股票现在的市盈率（P/E）为 23.5。这远低于标普 500 指数的 30。Alphabet 的 EPS 增长速度可以超过该指数。从这个角度来看，股票在 10 月 29 日 Q3 财报公布前看起来是一个很容易的买入选择。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Alphabet Stock Before Oct. 29?

- Alphabet 将于 10 月 29 日发布财报，面临多项垄断诉讼。  
- 尽管竞争加剧，Google Search 和 Google Cloud 收入持续增长。  
- 股票当前市盈率为 23.5，低于标普 500，投资机会显现。

你是否应该在 10 月 29 日之前购买 Alphabet 的股票？