<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.34%）的股票经历了一年的起起落落，但在第三季度财报和未来交付预期乐观的推动下，股价大幅上涨。在弥补了 2024 年上半年的负回报后，该股目前年内基本持平。</p>
<p>这家电动汽车（EV）制造商继续宣扬其自动驾驶汽车和机器人出租车的计划，本月早些时候提前预览了这一计划。让我们更近距离地看一下公司的收益、首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的评论，以及现在是否是买入该股的好时机。</p>
<h2>监管信贷推动业绩</h2>
<p>在今年前两个季度交付量下降后，第三季度交付量增长了 6%。Model 3/Y 的交付量增长了 5%，达到 43,668 辆，而其他型号，包括 Cybertruck，交付量激增了 43%，达到 22,915 辆。</p>
<p>与此同时，本季度的整车生产量增长了 9%，达到 469,796 辆。Model 3/Y 的生产量增长了 6%，而其他型号的生产量激增了 91%。</p>
<p>特斯拉的汽车收入微增 2%，达到 200 亿美元。汽车监管信贷收入激增 33%，达到 7.39 亿美元，推动了收入增长。这些信贷是特斯拉出售给其他汽车制造商的，帮助它们在某些州和地区达到环保要求。监管信贷的市场通常被认为是不可预测的，因为市场相当不透明。</p>
<p>这些信贷也是纯利润，有助于毛利和利润。特斯拉的整体毛利率上升了 195 个基点，达到 19.8%。</p>
<p>总收入增长了 8%，达到 252 亿美元。能源发电收入增长了 52%，达到 24 亿美元，服务和其他收入增长了 29%，达到 28 亿美元。</p>
<p>调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长了 9%，达到 0.72 美元，轻松超过了 LSEG 编制的 0.58 美元的共识，尽管营收略有不及。调整后的 EBITDA（利息、税收、折旧和摊销前利润）增长了 24%，达到 347 亿美元。</p>
<h2>乐观的展望</h2>
<p>展望未来，特斯拉对 2025 年非常乐观，马斯克表示他的 “最佳猜测” 是公司明年的交付量将增长 20% 至 30%。这超过了 FactSet 编制的分析师估计的明年 15% 的交付增长。</p>
<p>交付量增长预计将由特斯拉从明年上半年开始提供更多价格更实惠的车型推动。然而，马斯克没有详细说明这些更实惠的车型将是什么样的——他只是说正在准备开始推出它们。据路透社报道，该公司今年早些时候据说放弃了更便宜的 Model 2，然后又重新考虑了这一计划。它还谈到计划在 2026 年直接向客户销售售价为 3 万美元的双座机器人出租车。</p>
<p>特斯拉继续宣扬自动驾驶和其 Cybercab。公司表示预计明年其整个车系将实现全面自动驾驶。马斯克接着表示，公司每周正在制造 3.5 万辆自动驾驶汽车，而在其制造的 700 万辆车中，大多数都具备自动驾驶能力。</p>
<p>与此同时，马斯克表示，旧金山湾区的客户已经可以叫到其机器人出租车，尽管需要有安全驾驶员。然而，根据加州公用事业委员会网站的信息，特斯拉没有获得在该州运营叫车服务的许可。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTUxODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMjQyNDYyOS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTUxODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMjQyNDYyOS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>是时候买入该股票了吗？</h2>
<p>特斯拉本季度的表现比今年早些时候要好得多，交付量有所增长。然而，尽管交付的车辆增加了 6%，但除监管信贷外的汽车收入仅增长了 1%，这仍然是来自其主要业务的相当乏善可陈的增长。与此同时，高毛利的监管信贷通常不应该被依赖。</p>
<p>与此同时，20% 至 30% 的交付增长预测看起来是积极的。电动汽车增长已经放缓，特斯拉在这个市场面临来自传统参与者和新兴公司的日益激烈竞争。与此同时，在全球最大的电动汽车市场中国，一场持续的价格战正在进行。虽然特斯拉谈论了明年推出更实惠的车型，但目前还没有关于这些车型的详细信息。在财报电话会议上，马斯克表示，售价为 2.5 万美元的普通车型将是 “愚蠢” 和 “毫无意义” 的。</p>
<p>尽管特斯拉宣扬自动驾驶以及其正在生产的许多自动驾驶汽车，但事实是，该公司并没有销售或生产不需要人类警惕并随时准备接管方向盘的汽车。与此同时，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正在调查该公司的全自动驾驶系统，因为事故仍在持续发生，而其仅基于摄像头的技术仍然受到质疑。同样，NHTSA 还需要批准特斯拉的 Cybercab 开始运营。</p>
<p>总的来说，特斯拉的财报还可以，得益于监管信贷，而且该公司通常倾向于乐观。因此，在这次股价上涨后，我不会急于买入该股。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股价在发布积极的第三季度财报后大涨，交付量增长了 6%，预测 2025 年将实现 20-30% 的增长。尽管汽车收入增长了 2%，但人们仍然担忧公司过度依赖监管信用和电动汽车市场竞争加剧。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克强调了推出更实惠车型和自动驾驶技术进展的计划，但在对公司自动驾驶技术进行持续调查的背景下，人们对这些预测的可行性仍然持怀疑态度</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>'s (TSLA 3.34%) stock has had an up-and-down year, but its shares were surging higher following its third-quarter earnings report and upbeat forecast for future deliveries. Having recouped the negative returns in the first half of 2024, the stock is currently around breakeven for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.34%）的股票经历了一年的起起落落，但在第三季度财报和未来交付预期乐观的推动下，股价大幅上涨。在弥补了 2024 年上半年的负回报后，该股目前年内基本持平。</p>
</div><p>The electric vehicle (EV) maker continues to talk up its plans for autonomous vehicles and its robotaxi, which it gave a preview of earlier this month. Let's take a closer look at the company's earnings, CEO Elon Musk's comments, and whether now is a good time to buy the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家电动汽车（EV）制造商继续宣扬其自动驾驶汽车和机器人出租车的计划，本月早些时候提前预览了这一计划。让我们更近距离地看一下公司的收益、首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的评论，以及现在是否是买入该股的好时机。</p>
</div><h2>Regulatory credits boost results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>监管信贷推动业绩</h2>
</div><p>After a decline in the first two quarters of the year, deliveries increased by 6% in Q3. Model 3/Y deliveries rose by 5% to 43,668 vehicles, while other models, including the Cybertruck, saw deliveries spike 43% to 22,915 vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年前两个季度交付量下降后，第三季度交付量增长了 6%。Model 3/Y 的交付量增长了 5%，达到 43,668 辆，而其他型号，包括 Cybertruck，交付量激增了 43%，达到 22,915 辆。</p>
</div><p>Total vehicle production in the quarter, meanwhile, climbed 9% to 469,796. Model 3/Y production increased by 6%, while other model production surged 91%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，本季度的整车生产量增长了 9%，达到 469,796 辆。Model 3/Y 的生产量增长了 6%，而其他型号的生产量激增了 91%。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's automotive revenue edged up 2% to $20 billion. A 33% surge in automobile regulatory credit revenue, to $739 million, drove the gain. These are credits that Tesla sells to other automakers to help them become compliant with environmental requirements in certain states and regions. Revenue from regulatory credits is generally considered unpredictable, as the market for them is pretty opaque.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的汽车收入微增 2%，达到 200 亿美元。汽车监管信贷收入激增 33%，达到 7.39 亿美元，推动了收入增长。这些信贷是特斯拉出售给其他汽车制造商的，帮助它们在某些州和地区达到环保要求。监管信贷的市场通常被认为是不可预测的，因为市场相当不透明。</p>
</div><p>These credits are also pure margin, which helps both with gross margins and profits. Tesla's overall gross margins jumped 195 basis points to 19.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些信贷也是纯利润，有助于毛利和利润。特斯拉的整体毛利率上升了 195 个基点，达到 19.8%。</p>
</div><p>Overall revenue rose 8% to $25.2 billion. Energy Generation revenue climbed 52% to $2.4 billion, and Service and Other revenue jumped 29% to $2.8 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总收入增长了 8%，达到 252 亿美元。能源发电收入增长了 52%，达到 24 亿美元，服务和其他收入增长了 29%，达到 28 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased 9% to $0.72, which easily topped the $0.58 consensus compiled by LSEG, despite a slight miss on revenue. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed 24% to $34.7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长了 9%，达到 0.72 美元，轻松超过了 LSEG 编制的 0.58 美元的共识，尽管营收略有不及。调整后的 EBITDA（利息、税收、折旧和摊销前利润）增长了 24%，达到 347 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Upbeat outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>乐观的展望</h2>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Tesla was very upbeat about 2025, with Musk saying his &#34;best guess&#34; is that the company would increase deliveries by 20% to 30% next year. That was ahead of the 15% delivery growth for next year that analysts estimated, as compiled by <strong>FactSet</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，特斯拉对 2025 年非常乐观，马斯克表示他的 “最佳猜测” 是公司明年的交付量将增长 20% 至 30%。这超过了 FactSet 编制的分析师估计的明年 15% 的交付增长。</p>
</div><p>The growth in deliveries is expected to be powered by Tesla offering more affordable models starting in the first half of next year. However, Musk did not go into detail on what these more affordable models would be -- he just said preparations were being made to begin launching them. According to Reuters, the company supposedly backed away from a cheaper Model 2 earlier this year, only to then to put it back on the table. It has also talked about selling its two-seat robotaxi directly to customers for $30,000 in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交付量增长预计将由特斯拉从明年上半年开始提供更多价格更实惠的车型推动。然而，马斯克没有详细说明这些更实惠的车型将是什么样的——他只是说正在准备开始推出它们。据路透社报道，该公司今年早些时候据说放弃了更便宜的 Model 2，然后又重新考虑了这一计划。它还谈到计划在 2026 年直接向客户销售售价为 3 万美元的双座机器人出租车。</p>
</div><p>Tesla continues to talk up autonomous driving and its Cybercab. It said it expects its entire line of vehicles to reach full autonomy next year. Musk went on to say that the company is making 35,000 autonomous vehicles a week, and that of the 7 million vehicles it has made, most are capable of autonomy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉继续宣扬自动驾驶和其 Cybercab。公司表示预计明年其整个车系将实现全面自动驾驶。马斯克接着表示，公司每周正在制造 3.5 万辆自动驾驶汽车，而在其制造的 700 万辆车中，大多数都具备自动驾驶能力。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Musk said customers in the Bay Area can already hail a ride from its robotaxi, albeit with a safety driver. However, according to the California Public Utilities Commission's website, Tesla has no license to operate a ride-hailing service in the state.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，马斯克表示，旧金山湾区的客户已经可以叫到其机器人出租车，尽管需要有安全驾驶员。然而，根据加州公用事业委员会网站的信息，特斯拉没有获得在该州运营叫车服务的许可。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTUxODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMjQyNDYyOS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795181%2Fgettyimages-2032424629.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is it time to buy the stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是时候买入该股票了吗？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla turned in a much better quarter than it did earlier this year, with deliveries climbing. However, despite delivering 6% more vehicles, it only saw a 1% increase in automotive revenue outside of the regulatory credits, which is still pretty lackluster growth coming from its principal business. Meanwhile, the high-margin regulatory credits are generally something that shouldn't be relied upon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉本季度的表现比今年早些时候要好得多，交付量有所增长。然而，尽管交付的车辆增加了 6%，但除监管信贷外的汽车收入仅增长了 1%，这仍然是来自其主要业务的相当乏善可陈的增长。与此同时，高毛利的监管信贷通常不应该被依赖。</p>
</div><p>The 20% to 30% delivery growth prediction, meanwhile, looks aggressive. Electric vehicle growth has slowed, and Tesla is facing increased competition in this market from established players and new upstarts. Meanwhile, in China, the largest EV market in the world, there has been an ongoing price war. And while Tesla has talked about a more affordable model next year, there are no details about what this could look like. On the earnings call, Musk said that a $25,000 regular model would be &#34;silly&#34; and &#34;pointless.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，20% 至 30% 的交付增长预测看起来是积极的。电动汽车增长已经放缓，特斯拉在这个市场面临来自传统参与者和新兴公司的日益激烈竞争。与此同时，在全球最大的电动汽车市场中国，一场持续的价格战正在进行。虽然特斯拉谈论了明年推出更实惠的车型，但目前还没有关于这些车型的详细信息。在财报电话会议上，马斯克表示，售价为 2.5 万美元的普通车型将是 “愚蠢” 和 “毫无意义” 的。</p>
</div><p>While Tesla played up autonomous driving and how many autonomous vehicles it is producing, the simple fact is that the company does not sell or produce vehicles that don't need humans alert and ready at the wheel. At the same time, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is investigating the company's full self-driving system over continued accidents, while its camera-only technology continues to be called into question. That same NHTSA would also need to give Tesla's Cybercab approval to start operating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉宣扬自动驾驶以及其正在生产的许多自动驾驶汽车，但事实是，该公司并没有销售或生产不需要人类警惕并随时准备接管方向盘的汽车。与此同时，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正在调查该公司的全自动驾驶系统，因为事故仍在持续发生，而其仅基于摄像头的技术仍然受到质疑。同样，NHTSA 还需要批准特斯拉的 Cybercab 开始运营。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Tesla's earnings report was just OK, helped by regulatory credits, and the company usually tends to be optimistic. As such, I would not be running out and buying the stock following this rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，特斯拉的财报还可以，得益于监管信贷，而且该公司通常倾向于乐观。因此，在这次股价上涨后，我不会急于买入该股。</p>
</div>

Tesla Shares Surge on Delivery Forecast. Is It Time to Buy the Stock?

- 特斯拉第三季度交付量增长 6%，汽车收入微增 1%。  
- CEO 马斯克预测 2025 年交付增长 20% 至 30%。  
- 竞争加剧及监管信用依赖性高，投资需谨慎。

特斯拉股价因交付预测上涨。现在是买入这只股票的好时机吗？