<p>在 2023 年令人遗忘的一年之后，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -1.14%）终于在上周的第三季度财报中获得了一些救赎。</p>
<p>周四，股价在一天内飙升 22%，这是多年来最佳的单日表现，尽管汽车部门的销售增长乏力，但仍实现了强劲的利润增长。营业收入跃升 54%，达到 27 亿美元。</p>
<p>这一表现得益于其能源生产和储存业务以及服务部门的强劲增长，同时公司在第二季度裁员后控制了成本。特斯拉还实现了每辆车的销售成本创历史新低，达到 35,100 美元。</p>
<p>除了强劲的利润增长外，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对明年生产增长的预测也让投资者感到振奋，他预计公司将在 2025 年将产量提高 20% 至 30%。公司计划制造大约 180 万辆汽车，这意味着明年计划增加 36 万辆至 54 万辆的产量。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚这些增长将来自何处。特斯拉计划在明年开始生产刚刚推出的 Cybercab，并预计在 2026 年扩大生产，表示公司目标是每年生产至少 200 万辆这款两座的自动驾驶汽车。</p>
<p>然而，特斯拉投资者似乎并没有考虑到一个制约因素，因此上周股价飙升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>电动车市场是否已达到顶峰？</h2>
<p>电动车（EV）行业面临困境，像特斯拉这样的纯电动车制造商大多实现了平稳或令人失望的增长，而传统汽车制造商如 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>福特汽车公司</strong> 则降低了对其电动车业务的预期，归咎于高成本、糟糕的经济效益和疲软的需求。</p>
<p>马斯克表示，他认为特斯拉是唯一一家盈利的电动车公司，并且没有任何汽车制造商的电动车部门是盈利的。这对特斯拉来说是个赞誉，但行业的需求增长也显著放缓，正如下图所示，这是特斯拉在财报中分享的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>正如你所看到的，电动车的增长，尤其是在中国以外，过去四个季度基本上已经达到顶峰。没有单一原因导致这一趋势。相反，这似乎是由于电动车与内燃机（ICE）车辆相比价格较高、续航焦虑、早期用户已经购买电动车以及消费者普遍偏好加油便利的汽油车等多种因素的综合结果。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，混合动力车的销量在电池电动车的市场中迅速增长，显示出消费者喜欢电动车的高效，但可能更偏爱混合动力车的便利性。</p>
<p>特斯拉展示了这张图表，以支持电动车有显著增长机会的观点，因为预计电动车将从内燃机车辆中抢占市场份额。然而，向新技术的过渡并不总是顺利和可预测的，特别是当新技术价格较高时。例如，一些预测者曾预计电子书会使纸质书籍过时，但这并没有发生。</p>
<p>马斯克似乎认为，特斯拉能够凭借像 Cybercab 这样的新车型独自推动市场增长，就像 2020 年那样，但自那时以来，电动车市场已经发生了重大变化。市场上有数十款电动车型来自不同的汽车公司，几乎所有车型选项，从皮卡到轿车，都可供选择。</p>
<p>在这一点上，特斯拉要独自推动电动车市场的增长将比 2020 年 Model Y 推出时更加困难。</p>
<h2>特斯拉面临的重大问题</h2>
<p>作为一款没有方向盘或踏板的自动驾驶汽车，Cybercab 有潜力带来变革，但它尚未获得德克萨斯州或加利福尼亚州的监管批准，这两个州是其计划推出的目标市场。</p>
<p>即使假设特斯拉获得批准，考虑到其他自动驾驶汽车公司面临的监管障碍和缓慢的推出速度，很难想象在一两年内会有数百万辆这样的汽车上路，正如马斯克所期待的那样。即使只是一起事故，也可能对马斯克的自动驾驶梦想造成重大打击。</p>
<p>换句话说，特斯拉必须继续在其核心业务中实现增长，直到电动车能够成为可行的商业模式，这在市场达到顶峰和行业普遍低迷的情况下似乎很困难。</p>
<p>对于一家传统汽车制造商来说，其股票通常以个位数的市盈率交易，这样的风险较小，但特斯拉远非传统汽车制造商，其定价也与之不同。该股目前的市盈率超过 100，基于调整后的每股收益。</p>
<p>为了维持这一估值，公司需要在明年实现生产激增，或在 Cybercab 上取得重大进展。这两者都不会容易，如果特斯拉未能达标，股价可能会在明年再次暴跌，类似于 2024 年初的情况。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉最近的财报显示，运营收入增长了 54%，主要得益于其能源和服务部门。尽管股价上涨了 22%，但对电动车市场趋于平稳的担忧依然存在，传统汽车制造商面临挑战，需求增长放缓。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对 Cybercab 的雄心勃勃的生产预测可能面临监管障碍，增加了增长前景的复杂性。在这些市场挑战下，特斯拉超过 100 的高市盈率也引发了对其估值的质疑</p>

<p>After a forgettable 2023, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.14%) finally scored some redemption in its third-quarter earnings report last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年令人遗忘的一年之后，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -1.14%）终于在上周的第三季度财报中获得了一些救赎。</p>
</div><p>The stock soared 22% in a single day on Thursday, its best one-day performance in years as it overcame tepid sales growth in its automotive division to post strong profit growth. Operating income jumped 54% to $2.7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，股价在一天内飙升 22%，这是多年来最佳的单日表现，尽管汽车部门的销售增长乏力，但仍实现了强劲的利润增长。营业收入跃升 54%，达到 27 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>That performance was driven by strong increases in its energy generation and storage business and its services segment, as well as the company controlling costs after a round of layoffs in the second quarter. Tesla also achieved its lowest cost of goods sold per vehicle ever at $35,100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一表现得益于其能源生产和储存业务以及服务部门的强劲增长，同时公司在第二季度裁员后控制了成本。特斯拉还实现了每辆车的销售成本创历史新低，达到 35,100 美元。</p>
</div><p>In addition to the strong profit growth, CEO Elon Musk's production growth forecast also encouraged investors for next year, as he expects the company to increase production by 20% to 30% in 2025. The company is on track to manufacture roughly 1.8 million vehicles, meaning it aims to increase production by 360,000 to 540,000 vehicles next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了强劲的利润增长外，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对明年生产增长的预测也让投资者感到振奋，他预计公司将在 2025 年将产量提高 20% 至 30%。公司计划制造大约 180 万辆汽车，这意味着明年计划增加 36 万辆至 54 万辆的产量。</p>
</div><p>It's not entirely clear where that would come from. Tesla plans to begin production of the Cybercab, which it just introduced, next year, and sees it scaling production in 2026, saying the company is aiming for at least 2 million units per year of the two-seater autonomous vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚这些增长将来自何处。特斯拉计划在明年开始生产刚刚推出的 Cybercab，并预计在 2026 年扩大生产，表示公司目标是每年生产至少 200 万辆这款两座的自动驾驶汽车。</p>
</div><p>However, there's one constraint that Tesla investors didn't seem to be considering as they sent the stock soaring last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特斯拉投资者似乎并没有考虑到一个制约因素，因此上周股价飙升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795417%2Ftesla-model-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Is the EV market plateauing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电动车市场是否已达到顶峰？</h2>
</div><p>The electric vehicle (EV) industry has struggled as pure plays like Tesla have mostly posted flat or disappointing growth, and legacy automakers like <strong>General Motors</strong> and <strong>Ford Motor Company</strong> have tamped down expectations for their EV businesses, blaming high costs, bad economics, and weak demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动车（EV）行业面临困境，像特斯拉这样的纯电动车制造商大多实现了平稳或令人失望的增长，而传统汽车制造商如 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>福特汽车公司</strong> 则降低了对其电动车业务的预期，归咎于高成本、糟糕的经济效益和疲软的需求。</p>
</div><p>Musk said he believes Tesla is the only profitable EV company, and that there is no EV division of any automobile manufacturer that is profitable. That's a credit to Tesla, but demand growth in the industry has also slowed significantly as the chart below shows, which Tesla shared in its earnings presentation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克表示，他认为特斯拉是唯一一家盈利的电动车公司，并且没有任何汽车制造商的电动车部门是盈利的。这对特斯拉来说是个赞誉，但行业的需求增长也显著放缓，正如下图所示，这是特斯拉在财报中分享的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795417%2Ftesla-chart.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>As you can see, EV growth, especially outside of China, has essentially plateaued over the last four quarters. There's no single reason for that trend. Instead, it seems to owe to a combination of higher prices for EVs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, range anxiety, early adopters having purchased EVs already, and general preferences for gas vehicles like convenient fill-ups.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，电动车的增长，尤其是在中国以外，过去四个季度基本上已经达到顶峰。没有单一原因导致这一趋势。相反，这似乎是由于电动车与内燃机（ICE）车辆相比价格较高、续航焦虑、早期用户已经购买电动车以及消费者普遍偏好加油便利的汽油车等多种因素的综合结果。</p>
</div><p>Notably, sales of hybrids have taken off in place of battery electric vehicles, showing that consumers like the efficiency of an electric car, but may prefer the convenience of the hybrid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，混合动力车的销量在电池电动车的市场中迅速增长，显示出消费者喜欢电动车的高效，但可能更偏爱混合动力车的便利性。</p>
</div><p>Tesla presents this chart to support the idea that there is a significant opportunity for growth in EVs, as electric vehicles are anticipated to capture market share from ICE vehicles. Nonetheless, the transition to new technologies may not always follow a smooth and predictable path, particularly when the new technology is pricier. For example, some prognosticators expected e-books to make print books obsolete, but that hasn't happened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉展示了这张图表，以支持电动车有显著增长机会的观点，因为预计电动车将从内燃机车辆中抢占市场份额。然而，向新技术的过渡并不总是顺利和可预测的，特别是当新技术价格较高时。例如，一些预测者曾预计电子书会使纸质书籍过时，但这并没有发生。</p>
</div><p>Musk seems to think that Tesla is capable of growing the market on its own with a new model like the Cybercab as it was able to do back in 2020, but the EV market has evolved substantially since then. There are dozens of EV models on the market from a range of auto companies, and most vehicle model options, from pickup trucks to sedans, are available.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克似乎认为，特斯拉能够凭借像 Cybercab 这样的新车型独自推动市场增长，就像 2020 年那样，但自那时以来，电动车市场已经发生了重大变化。市场上有数十款电动车型来自不同的汽车公司，几乎所有车型选项，从皮卡到轿车，都可供选择。</p>
</div><p>At this point, it will be more difficult for Tesla to grow the EV market on its own than it was in 2020 when the Model Y came out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一点上，特斯拉要独自推动电动车市场的增长将比 2020 年 Model Y 推出时更加困难。</p>
</div><h2>The big question facing Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉面临的重大问题</h2>
</div><p>As an autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, the Cybercab has the ability to be transformative, but it hasn't yet received regulatory approval in Texas or California, the two states it's aiming to launch in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一款没有方向盘或踏板的自动驾驶汽车，Cybercab 有潜力带来变革，但它尚未获得德克萨斯州或加利福尼亚州的监管批准，这两个州是其计划推出的目标市场。</p>
</div><p>Even assuming Tesla gets approval, it's hard to imagine millions of these vehicles hitting the road in a year or two as Musk seems to expect, given the regulatory hurdles and slow rollouts that other autonomous vehicle companies have faced. Even just one accident could present a significant setback to Musk's autonomous dreams.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使假设特斯拉获得批准，考虑到其他自动驾驶汽车公司面临的监管障碍和缓慢的推出速度，很难想象在一两年内会有数百万辆这样的汽车上路，正如马斯克所期待的那样。即使只是一起事故，也可能对马斯克的自动驾驶梦想造成重大打击。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Tesla will have to continue achieving growth in its core business until it's clear that EVs can be a viable business, and that seems difficult with the market plateauing and a general malaise in the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，特斯拉必须继续在其核心业务中实现增长，直到电动车能够成为可行的商业模式，这在市场达到顶峰和行业普遍低迷的情况下似乎很困难。</p>
</div><p>For a traditional automaker, whose stocks often trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios, that would be less of a risk, but Tesla is far from a traditional automaker and it isn't priced like one. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of over 100 based on trailing adjusted earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于一家传统汽车制造商来说，其股票通常以个位数的市盈率交易，这样的风险较小，但特斯拉远非传统汽车制造商，其定价也与之不同。该股目前的市盈率超过 100，基于调整后的每股收益。</p>
</div><p>To sustain that valuation, the company will need to come through with a production boom next year or make significant headway with the Cybercab. Neither one of those will be easy, and if Tesla falls short, the stock could plunge again next year, much like it did in early 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了维持这一估值，公司需要在明年实现生产激增，或在 Cybercab 上取得重大进展。这两者都不会容易，如果特斯拉未能达标，股价可能会在明年再次暴跌，类似于 2024 年初的情况。</p>
</div>

1 Chart That Shows Why Tesla Is Still Overvalued

- 特斯拉第三季度财报显示，运营收入增长 54%，达 1.7 亿美元。  
- CEO 马斯克预计 2025 年生产增长 20% 至 30%，目标为 180 万辆。  
- 然而，电动车市场增长放缓，特斯拉需克服监管障碍以实现目标。  

一张图表显示为什么特斯拉仍然被高估