<p><strong>开市客</strong>(COST 0.49%) 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 6.19%) 是全球最具韧性的零售商之一。开市客的仓储商店通过大宗折扣吸引了大量顾客，并通过付费会员制度将他们锁定。亚马逊是全球最大的电子商务公司，通过提供大幅折扣、便宜的运输选项以及更多的会员福利，维护了其广泛的竞争优势，全球超过 2 亿的 Prime 会员享受这些服务。</p>
<p>开市客专注于大宗采购、粘性的会员制度以及在美国和海外市场的持续实体店扩张，使其免受亚马逊增长的影响，而其他实体零售商则逐渐退缩。亚马逊还利用其云业务的高利润收入来补贴其低利润的电子商务业务扩张——这一独特策略使其在许多实体零售竞争对手中占据了优势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU4MDgvc2hvcHBlci1wdXNoZXMtY2FydC1pbi1hLXdhcmVob3VzZS1zdG9yZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU4MDgvc2hvcHBlci1wdXNoZXMtY2FydC1pbi1hLXdhcmVob3VzZS1zdG9yZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在过去三年中，开市客的股票上涨了 80%，而亚马逊的股票仅上涨了 13%。让我们看看为什么这家批发零售商的表现如此优于亚马逊，以及它是否会在可预见的未来继续成为更好的投资选择。</p>
<h2>为什么多头看好开市客？</h2>
<p>开市客的长期扩张主要得益于新店开业、稳定的可比销售、持卡人增长和高续费率。从 2020 财年到 2024 财年（截至今年 9 月），它始终满足这四个条件。</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2020 财年 | 2021 财年 | 2022 财年 | 2023 财年 | 2024 财年 |
| 总店铺数量增长（同比）| 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| 可比销售 * 增长（同比）| 9.2% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% |
| 持卡人增长（同比）| 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7% |
| 全球续费率 * | 88.4% | 88.7% | 90.4% | 90.4% | 90.5% |</p>
<p>数据来源：开市客。* 不包括燃油和外汇。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>从 2020 财年到 2024 财年，开市客的收入以 11% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长，EPS 以 16% 的 CAGR 增长。由于疫情促使更多人囤积包装食品和日用消费品，其增长在 2021 财年和 2022 财年加速，但在接下来的两年中仍继续增长，即使通货膨胀抑制了消费者支出。它还在七年来首次提高了会员费，以抵消这种压力。</p>
<p>开市客的增长率并不惊人，但其韧性、规模和粘性使其成为一个良好的避风港投资。从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计其收入和 EPS 将分别以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增长。这个前景是稳定的，但其股票在今年的收益基础上看起来有点昂贵，市盈率为 50 倍。</p>
<h2>为什么市场对亚马逊的热情较低？</h2>
<p>亚马逊的大部分收入来自其电子商务市场，但其大部分利润来自其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云平台。由于疫情促使更多消费者在线购物，更多公司升级其云基础设施，其电子商务和云业务在 2020 年和 2021 年都迅速增长。</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2020 年 | 2021 年 | 2022 年 | 2023 年 | 2024 年上半年 |
| 北美销售增长（同比）| 38% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 11% |
| 国际销售增长（同比）| 40% | 22% | (8%) | 11% | 8% |
| AWS 销售增长（同比）| 30% | 37% | 29% | 13% | 18% |
| 总销售增长（同比）| 38% | 22% | 9% | 12% | 11% |</p>
<p>数据来源：亚马逊。</p>
<p>但在 2022 年，亚马逊的两个增长引擎都停滞不前，因为疫情带来的顺风消退，通货膨胀抑制了消费者支出，利率上升使许多公司削减了云支出。由于对挣扎中的电动车制造商 <strong>Rivian</strong> 的大量投资失利，亚马逊全年也变得亏损。</p>
<p>在过去一年半中，随着宏观环境再次回暖，亚马逊的增长稳定下来。其电子商务业务恢复了增长，因为它优先考虑更快的交付，销售更多日常必需品，并扩展到更多国家。随着更多公司升级其云基础设施以应对新生成的 AI 应用的激增，AWS 的增长再次加速。</p>
<p>从 2023 年到 2026 年，分析师预计亚马逊的收入和 EPS 将分别以 11% 和 35% 的 CAGR 增长，因为其短期逆风减弱。基于这些预期，其股票相对于其增长仍然看起来合理，市盈率为 33 倍。</p>
<h2>更好的投资选择：亚马逊</h2>
<p>开市客的表现出色，但其估值已经超前于其增长率。因此，我认为在过去三年中被广泛低估的亚马逊，在未来三年中可能比开市客有更大的上行潜力，因为宏观环境终于改善。</p>

开市客

亚马逊

<p>开市客和亚马逊是两家领先的零售商，在过去三年中，开市客的股票增长表现优于亚马逊（80% 对 13%）。开市客的成功归因于其门店扩张、强劲的会员增长和高续费率，而亚马逊的增长因疫情后挑战和通货膨胀而放缓。分析师预计开市客的收入和每股收益将稳步增长，尽管其股票看起来价格较高。相比之下，亚马逊的电子商务和 AWS 增长已趋于稳定，但由于投资和市场条件，2022 年面临盈利问题</p>

<p><strong>Costco</strong>(COST 0.49%) and <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 6.19%) are two of the world's most resilient retailers. Costco's warehouse stores attract a lot of shoppers with its bulk discounts, and it locks them in with its paid memberships. Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce company, and it maintains a wide moat by providing steep discounts, cheap shipping options, and more perks to over 200 million Prime members worldwide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>开市客</strong>(COST 0.49%) 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 6.19%) 是全球最具韧性的零售商之一。开市客的仓储商店通过大宗折扣吸引了大量顾客，并通过付费会员制度将他们锁定。亚马逊是全球最大的电子商务公司，通过提供大幅折扣、便宜的运输选项以及更多的会员福利，维护了其广泛的竞争优势，全球超过 2 亿的 Prime 会员享受这些服务。</p>
</div><p>Costco's focus on bulk purchases, sticky memberships, and constant brick-and-mortar expansion in the U.S. and overseas markets shielded it from Amazon's growth as other brick-and-mortar retailers retreated. Amazon also leveraged its cloud business' higher-margin revenues to subsidize the expansion of its lower-margin e-commerce business -- and that unique strategy gave it an edge against many of its brick-and-mortar retail competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客专注于大宗采购、粘性的会员制度以及在美国和海外市场的持续实体店扩张，使其免受亚马逊增长的影响，而其他实体零售商则逐渐退缩。亚马逊还利用其云业务的高利润收入来补贴其低利润的电子商务业务扩张——这一独特策略使其在许多实体零售竞争对手中占据了优势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU4MDgvc2hvcHBlci1wdXNoZXMtY2FydC1pbi1hLXdhcmVob3VzZS1zdG9yZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795808%2Fshopper-pushes-cart-in-a-warehouse-store.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Over the past three years, Costco's stock soared 80%, as Amazon's stock only advanced 13%. Let's see why the wholesale retailer outperformed Amazon by such a wide margin -- and if it will remain the better buy for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，开市客的股票上涨了 80%，而亚马逊的股票仅上涨了 13%。让我们看看为什么这家批发零售商的表现如此优于亚马逊，以及它是否会在可预见的未来继续成为更好的投资选择。</p>
</div><h2>Why did the bulls love Costco?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么多头看好开市客？</h2>
</div><p>Costco's long-term expansion has been mainly driven by its new store openings, steady comparable sales, growth in cardholders, and high renewal rates. It's consistently checked all four of those boxes from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2024 (which ended this September).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客的长期扩张主要得益于新店开业、稳定的可比销售、持卡人增长和高续费率。从 2020 财年到 2024 财年（截至今年 9 月），它始终满足这四个条件。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
| Total store count growth (YOY) | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| Comparable sales* growth (YOY) | 9.2% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% |
| Cardholder growth (YOY) | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7% |
| Worldwide renewal rate* | 88.4% | 88.7% | 90.4% | 90.4% | 90.5% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2020 财年 | 2021 财年 | 2022 财年 | 2023 财年 | 2024 财年 |
| 总店铺数量增长（同比）| 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| 可比销售 * 增长（同比）| 9.2% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% |
| 持卡人增长（同比）| 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7% |
| 全球续费率 * | 88.4% | 88.7% | 90.4% | 90.4% | 90.5% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Costco. *Excluding gas and foreign exchange. YOY = Year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：开市客。* 不包括燃油和外汇。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2024, Costco's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% as its EPS rose at a CAGR of 16%. Its growth accelerated in fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022 as the pandemic drove more people to stock up on packaged foods and consumer staples, but it continued growing over the following two years, even as inflation curbed consumer spending. It also recently raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years to offset that pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2020 财年到 2024 财年，开市客的收入以 11% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长，EPS 以 16% 的 CAGR 增长。由于疫情促使更多人囤积包装食品和日用消费品，其增长在 2021 财年和 2022 财年加速，但在接下来的两年中仍继续增长，即使通货膨胀抑制了消费者支出。它还在七年来首次提高了会员费，以抵消这种压力。</p>
</div><p>Costco's growth rates aren't jaw-dropping, but its resilience, scale, and stickiness make it a good safe-haven investment. From fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, analysts expect its revenue and EPS to rise at a CAGR of 7% and 10%, respectively. That outlook is stable, but its stock looks a bit pricey at 50 times this year's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客的增长率并不惊人，但其韧性、规模和粘性使其成为一个良好的避风港投资。从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计其收入和 EPS 将分别以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增长。这个前景是稳定的，但其股票在今年的收益基础上看起来有点昂贵，市盈率为 50 倍。</p>
</div><h2>Why was the market less enthusiastic about Amazon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么市场对亚马逊的热情较低？</h2>
</div><p>Amazon generates most of its revenue from its e-commerce marketplaces, but it reaps most of its profits from its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform. Its e-commerce and cloud businesses both grew rapidly in 2020 and 2021 as the pandemic drove more consumers to shop online and more companies to upgrade their cloud infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的大部分收入来自其电子商务市场，但其大部分利润来自其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云平台。由于疫情促使更多消费者在线购物，更多公司升级其云基础设施，其电子商务和云业务在 2020 年和 2021 年都迅速增长。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 1H 2024 |
| North America sales growth (YOY) | 38% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 11% |
| International sales growth (YOY) | 40% | 22% | (8%) | 11% | 8% |
| AWS sales growth (YOY) | 30% | 37% | 29% | 13% | 18% |
| Total sales growth (YOY) | 38% | 22% | 9% | 12% | 11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2020 年 | 2021 年 | 2022 年 | 2023 年 | 2024 年上半年 |
| 北美销售增长（同比）| 38% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 11% |
| 国际销售增长（同比）| 40% | 22% | (8%) | 11% | 8% |
| AWS 销售增长（同比）| 30% | 37% | 29% | 13% | 18% |
| 总销售增长（同比）| 38% | 22% | 9% | 12% | 11% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><p>But in 2022, both of Amazon's growth engines sputtered out as the pandemic-induced tailwinds dissipated, inflation curbed consumer spending, and rising rates drove many companies to rein in their cloud expenses. It also turned unprofitable for the full year as its big investment in the struggling EV maker <strong>Rivian</strong> backfired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 2022 年，亚马逊的两个增长引擎都停滞不前，因为疫情带来的顺风消退，通货膨胀抑制了消费者支出，利率上升使许多公司削减了云支出。由于对挣扎中的电动车制造商 <strong>Rivian</strong> 的大量投资失利，亚马逊全年也变得亏损。</p>
</div><p>Over the past one and a half years, Amazon's growth stabilized as the macro environment warmed up again. Its e-commerce business recovered as it prioritized faster deliveries, sold more everyday essentials, and expanded into more countries. AWS' growth accelerated again as more companies upgraded their cloud infrastructure to handle the soaring usage of new generative AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年半中，随着宏观环境再次回暖，亚马逊的增长稳定下来。其电子商务业务恢复了增长，因为它优先考虑更快的交付，销售更多日常必需品，并扩展到更多国家。随着更多公司升级其云基础设施以应对新生成的 AI 应用的激增，AWS 的增长再次加速。</p>
</div><p>From 2023 to 2026, analysts expect Amazon's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 35%, respectively, as its near-term headwinds dissipate. Based on those expectations, its stock still looks reasonably valued relative to its growth at 33 times next year's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2023 年到 2026 年，分析师预计亚马逊的收入和 EPS 将分别以 11% 和 35% 的 CAGR 增长，因为其短期逆风减弱。基于这些预期，其股票相对于其增长仍然看起来合理，市盈率为 33 倍。</p>
</div><h2>The better buy: Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更好的投资选择：亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>Costco had a great run, but its valuations have gotten ahead of its growth rates. Therefore, I believe that Amazon -- which was broadly underappreciated over the past three years -- could have more upside potential than Costco over the next three years as the macro environment finally improves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客的表现出色，但其估值已经超前于其增长率。因此，我认为在过去三年中被广泛低估的亚马逊，在未来三年中可能比开市客有更大的上行潜力，因为宏观环境终于改善。</p>
</div>

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Costco vs. Amazon

- Costco 和 Amazon 是全球最具韧性的零售商。  
- Costco 通过批量折扣和会员制吸引顾客，Amazon 则依靠云服务和电商业务。  
- 分析师预计未来三年 Amazon 的收入和每股收益将增长，可能超越 Costco。

当前最值得购买的股票：开市客与亚马逊