<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 上周分享了很多信息。这家巨头公司在周四表示，其截至 9 月 28 日的财年第四季度收入同比增长 6%，达到 949 亿美元。调整后的每股收益增长了 12%。</p>
<p>首席执行官蒂姆·库克在苹果的季度电话会议上谈到了许多新产品。他赞扬了 iPhone 16 系列、新款 Apple Watch、AirPods 的助听器功能、Apple TV+ 的成功以及 Apple Intelligence 生成式 AI 的功能。</p>
<p>但库克和他的高管团队在某些话题上保持了谨慎。以下是苹果不想谈论的三件事。</p>
<h2>1. 短期 iPhone 销售增长</h2>
<p>苹果预计截至 2024 年 12 月的下一个季度收入将同比增长低至中个位数。公司预计服务收入将以与 2024 财年近 13% 的增长相似的速度增长。</p>
<p>首席财务官卢卡·梅斯特里在第四季度财报电话会议上被分析师问及 12 月季度的 iPhone 销售情况时，他拒绝回答。</p>
<p>库克被问及未来几个季度对新 iPhone 的需求时，他回应道：“显然，我们不会对当前季度之外的情况进行预测。我们就是不这样做。”</p>
<p>他仅表示，公司相信 Apple Intelligence 是 “一个令人信服的升级理由。” 他还提到，iOS 18.1 的采用率在发布的前三天是 iOS 17.1 的两倍。库克补充道：“所以，这显然显示出外界的兴趣。”</p>
<p>苹果过去曾提供更多关于下个季度预期 iPhone 销售增长的细节。然而，我怀疑新生成式 AI 功能的分阶段推出使得高信心预测 iPhone 销售变得更加困难。</p>
<h2>2. 潜在关税的影响</h2>
<p><strong>美国银行</strong> 分析师瓦姆西·莫汉询问库克，苹果是否为选举后可能出现的关税做好了准备。莫汉特别关注苹果已经采取的任何措施，以保护自己免受潜在高关税的影响。</p>
<p>库克没有上钩。他回答道：“你知道，我不想对这些事情进行猜测，所以我会对此保持沉默。” 我完全不怪他不想参与关税讨论。然而，我认为莫汉的问题是个好问题。苹果的业务可能会受到关税增加的影响。</p>
<p>公司在上周的年度 10-K 文件中承认了这一点。苹果指出，几乎所有的制造都在美国以外进行，特别是在中国、印度、日本、韩国、台湾和越南。</p>
<p>它补充说，针对国际贸易的关税或其他限制可能会产生特别大的影响，尤其是如果这些措施适用于其产生大量收入和/或拥有主要供应链运营的国家。</p>
<h2>3. 与谷歌的关系</h2>
<p>根据 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的估计，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌部门目前每年向苹果支付约 200 亿美元，以成为 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。但这一收入来源对苹果来说可能面临风险。</p>
<p>一名联邦法官在 8 月裁定谷歌在搜索领域运营着非法垄断。一个潜在的结果是，谷歌可能被迫取消与苹果的协议。</p>
<p><strong>摩根大通</strong> 分析师萨米克·查特吉询问库克，谷歌的诉讼可能对其与苹果的关系产生什么影响。库克回应道：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>你知道，我不想从法律角度对这件事进行猜测。这是一个正在进行的案件。我会把这个留到另一天。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>我认为这是库克明智的回避。然而，查特吉的问题无疑是许多投资者希望得到答案的问题。</p>
<p>在我看来，苹果很可能会轻松找到另一个愿意成为 Safari 默认搜索引擎的搜索引擎提供商。（我在看你，<strong>微软</strong> Bing。）但苹果是否能从谷歌那里获得摩根士丹利认为的每年 200 亿美元的全部收入则是另一个故事。</p>
<h2>答案即将到来？</h2>
<p>这三个未解答的问题是否影响苹果向投资者提供的价值主张？绝对会。然而，我目前对此并不太担心。</p>
<p>我认为 iPhone 销售将在未来几个季度显著增长，这主要得益于消费者对 Apple Intelligence 的升级需求。我怀疑苹果已经考虑了如何防止潜在关税对其业务造成过大影响。而且如果公司没有制定应对与谷歌潜在解除协议的计划，我会感到震惊。</p>
<p>苹果现在不想谈论这些事情。但它迟早必须谈论其中至少一件事（iPhone 销售）。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果在第四季度报告了 6% 的收入增长，达到 895 亿美元，调整后的每股收益增长了 12%。首席执行官蒂姆·库克强调了新产品，但避免讨论近期 iPhone 销售增长、潜在关税影响以及与谷歌的关系。分析师对 iPhone 销售预测和关税对苹果供应链的影响表示担忧，以及失去与谷歌搜索引擎协议带来的收入风险。尽管存在这些不确定性，作者对未来 iPhone 销售持乐观态度，认为新功能和苹果的战略规划将推动销售增长</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) shared a lot of information last week. The huge company said on Thursday that its revenue rose 6% year over year to $94.9 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter, ending Sept. 28. Its adjusted earnings per share jumped 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 上周分享了很多信息。这家巨头公司在周四表示，其截至 9 月 28 日的财年第四季度收入同比增长 6%，达到 949 亿美元。调整后的每股收益增长了 12%。</p>
</div><p>CEO Tim Cook talked a lot in Apple's quarterly conference call about new products. He sang the praises of the iPhone 16 lineup, the new Apple Watch, AirPods' hearing aid capabilities, the successes of Apple TV+, and Apple Intelligence generative AI functionality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官蒂姆·库克在苹果的季度电话会议上谈到了许多新产品。他赞扬了 iPhone 16 系列、新款 Apple Watch、AirPods 的助听器功能、Apple TV+ 的成功以及 Apple Intelligence 生成式 AI 的功能。</p>
</div><p>But Cook and his executive team played it close to the vest on some topics. Here are three things Apple doesn't want to talk about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但库克和他的高管团队在某些话题上保持了谨慎。以下是苹果不想谈论的三件事。</p>
</div><h2>1. Near-term iPhone sales growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 短期 iPhone 销售增长</h2>
</div><p>Apple expects its revenue in the next quarter ending in December 2024 to increase by low- to mid-single digits year over year. The company looks for services revenue to grow at a similar rate as the nearly 13% growth in fiscal year 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果预计截至 2024 年 12 月的下一个季度收入将同比增长低至中个位数。公司预计服务收入将以与 2024 财年近 13% 的增长相似的速度增长。</p>
</div><p>Chief financial officer Luca Maestri was asked by analysts a couple of times in the fourth-quarter earnings call about iPhone sales in the December quarter. He refused to answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席财务官卢卡·梅斯特里在第四季度财报电话会议上被分析师问及 12 月季度的 iPhone 销售情况时，他拒绝回答。</p>
</div><p>Cook was asked about the demand for new iPhones in the coming quarters. He responded: &#34;We're not projecting beyond the current quarter obviously. We just don't do that.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库克被问及未来几个季度对新 iPhone 的需求时，他回应道：“显然，我们不会对当前季度之外的情况进行预测。我们就是不这样做。”</p>
</div><p>He would only go as far as to say that the company believes Apple Intelligence is &#34;a compelling upgrade reason.&#34; He also said that the adoption rate of iOS 18.1 was twice as much as that of iOS 17.1 during the first three days of its launch. Cook added, &#34;So, that clearly shows a level of interest out there.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他仅表示，公司相信 Apple Intelligence 是 “一个令人信服的升级理由。” 他还提到，iOS 18.1 的采用率在发布的前三天是 iOS 17.1 的两倍。库克补充道：“所以，这显然显示出外界的兴趣。”</p>
</div><p>Apple has provided more color in the past about anticipated iPhone sales growth for the next quarter. However, I suspect the phased introduction of new generative AI features makes it more difficult to project iPhone sales with a high degree of confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果过去曾提供更多关于下个季度预期 iPhone 销售增长的细节。然而，我怀疑新生成式 AI 功能的分阶段推出使得高信心预测 iPhone 销售变得更加困难。</p>
</div><h2>2. The impact of potential tariffs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 潜在关税的影响</h2>
</div><p><strong>Bank of America</strong> analyst Wamsi Mohan asked Cook if Apple is prepared for potential tariffs that could be on the way following the elections. Mohan was especially interested in any steps it has already taken to insulate itself from the potential impact of higher tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美国银行</strong> 分析师瓦姆西·莫汉询问库克，苹果是否为选举后可能出现的关税做好了准备。莫汉特别关注苹果已经采取的任何措施，以保护自己免受潜在高关税的影响。</p>
</div><p>Cook didn't take the bait. He replied, &#34;You know, I wouldn't want to speculate about those sorts of things, and so I'm going to punt on that one.&#34; I don't blame him at all for not wanting to wade into the tariff discussion. However, I think Mohan's question was a good one. Apple's business could be hurt by increased tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库克没有上钩。他回答道：“你知道，我不想对这些事情进行猜测，所以我会对此保持沉默。” 我完全不怪他不想参与关税讨论。然而，我认为莫汉的问题是个好问题。苹果的业务可能会受到关税增加的影响。</p>
</div><p>The company acknowledged as such in its annual 10-K filing last week. Apple noted that nearly all of its manufacturing is done outside the U.S., particularly in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司在上周的年度 10-K 文件中承认了这一点。苹果指出，几乎所有的制造都在美国以外进行，特别是在中国、印度、日本、韩国、台湾和越南。</p>
</div><p>It added that tariffs or other restrictions on international trade could have an especially big effect if they were applied to countries where it generates a significant amount of revenue and/or has major supply chain operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它补充说，针对国际贸易的关税或其他限制可能会产生特别大的影响，尤其是如果这些措施适用于其产生大量收入和/或拥有主要供应链运营的国家。</p>
</div><h2>3. The relationship with Google</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 与谷歌的关系</h2>
</div><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google unit currently forks over around $20 billion per year to Apple to be the default search engine in the Safari browser, according to <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>'s estimates. But this revenue source for Apple could be in jeopardy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的估计，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌部门目前每年向苹果支付约 200 亿美元，以成为 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎。但这一收入来源对苹果来说可能面临风险。</p>
</div><p>A federal judge ruled in August that Google is operating an illegal monopoly in search. One potential outcome is that it could be forced to cancel its agreement with Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名联邦法官在 8 月裁定谷歌在搜索领域运营着非法垄断。一个潜在的结果是，谷歌可能被迫取消与苹果的协议。</p>
</div><p><strong>J.P. Morgan</strong> analyst Samik Chatterjee asked Cook about what impact Google's lawsuit could have on its relationship with Apple. Cook responded:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摩根大通</strong> 分析师萨米克·查特吉询问库克，谷歌的诉讼可能对其与苹果的关系产生什么影响。库克回应道：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>You know, I don't want to speculate on that from a legal point of view. It's an ongoing case. And I will save that for another day.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>你知道，我不想从法律角度对这件事进行猜测。这是一个正在进行的案件。我会把这个留到另一天。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Again, I think this was a wise deflection by Cook. However, Chatterjee's question is certainly one many investors would love to have answered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这是库克明智的回避。然而，查特吉的问题无疑是许多投资者希望得到答案的问题。</p>
</div><p>It's possible -- and probable, in my opinion -- that Apple could easily find another search engine provider that would love to be the default in Safari. (I'm looking at you, <strong>Microsoft</strong> Bing.) But whether or not Apple could get the full $20 billion annually that Morgan Stanley believes it's getting now from Google is another story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，苹果很可能会轻松找到另一个愿意成为 Safari 默认搜索引擎的搜索引擎提供商。（我在看你，<strong>微软</strong> Bing。）但苹果是否能从谷歌那里获得摩根士丹利认为的每年 200 亿美元的全部收入则是另一个故事。</p>
</div><h2>Answers on the way?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>答案即将到来？</h2>
</div><p>Do these three unanswered questions affect the value proposition that Apple offers to investors? Absolutely. However, I'm not overly concerned with them at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三个未解答的问题是否影响苹果向投资者提供的价值主张？绝对会。然而，我目前对此并不太担心。</p>
</div><p>I think iPhone sales will increase significantly in the coming quarters thanks largely to upgrades spurred by consumers wanting Apple Intelligence. I suspect Apple has already looked at what it will do to prevent potential tariffs from hurting its business too much. And I'd be shocked if the company isn't game-planning how to deal with a potential severance of its deal with Google.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为 iPhone 销售将在未来几个季度显著增长，这主要得益于消费者对 Apple Intelligence 的升级需求。我怀疑苹果已经考虑了如何防止潜在关税对其业务造成过大影响。而且如果公司没有制定应对与谷歌潜在解除协议的计划，我会感到震惊。</p>
</div><p>Apple doesn't want to talk about these things right now. But it will have to do so with at least one of them (iPhone sales) sooner or later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果现在不想谈论这些事情。但它迟早必须谈论其中至少一件事（iPhone 销售）。</p>
</div>

3 Things Apple Doesn't Want to Talk About

- 苹果公司第四季度营收同比增长 6%，达  9 亿美元，调整后每股收益增长 12%。  
- CEO 库克未透露 iPhone 销售增长、潜在关税影响及与谷歌的关系。  
- 这些未解答的问题可能影响投资者对苹果的价值评估。  

苹果不愿意谈论的三件事