<p>就在一年前，<strong>Coinbase Global</strong>(COIN 2.02%) 的股价约为每股 75 美元。快进到今天，它经历了大幅上涨，攀升至大约 210 美元。</p>
<p>对于过去两年与我一起投资 Coinbase 的人来说，你们已经享受到了显著的收益。但有理由相信，Coinbase 在未来一年可能会进一步上涨，因为它正在为利用新兴收入来源和潜在的加密货币牛市做好准备。让我们来探讨一下原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5NDMvcGVlcmluZy1hdC1zY3JlZW4tb3Zlci1nbGFzc2VzLTE1NTE3NDg1NDAuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5NDMvcGVlcmluZy1hdC1zY3JlZW4tb3Zlci1nbGFzc2VzLTE1NTE3NDg1NDAuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>除交易费用外的收入来源多样化</h2>
<p>如果你一直关注我的报道（或者说，任何关于 Coinbase 的分析），你会知道该公司在过去几年中在多样化收入模式方面取得了重大进展，这是其令人印象深刻的股票表现背后的主要因素。</p>
<p>传统上，Coinbase 通过交易费用产生大部分收入，这一模式高度依赖交易量，并且容易受到市场波动的影响。意识到稳定性的重要性，Coinbase 开始建立额外的收入来源，尤其是稳定币收入，现在已成为其第二大盈利板块。</p>
<p>Coinbase 的稳定币业务在过去两年中蓬勃发展，得益于与 <strong>USD Coin</strong> 发行方 Circle 的合作。随着利率上升，Coinbase 利用 USDC 买家的资金投资于国债，这在加息期间带来了更好的回报。</p>
<p>这一策略取得了成效，稳定币收入在 2024 年第三季度达到了创纪录的 2.5 亿美元。然而，随着美联储在未来一年进行降息，这一收入来源可能会受到影响。</p>
<p>但这正是 Coinbase 多样化收入模式开始显现光芒的地方。虽然利率的降低可能会抑制稳定币产生的收入，但它可能同时会引发新的加密货币牛市。</p>
<p>随着利率下降，借贷成本降低，经济中的流动性往往会增加。历史上，低利率环境会鼓励风险偏好，这通常会导致更多资金流入像加密货币这样的高风险资产（正如 2021 年牛市时的情况，当时利率几乎为 0%）。</p>
<p>随着市场预计到 2025 年中期利率将达到峰值，Coinbase 的其他收入来源（如交易费用、区块链奖励和保管服务）与加密货币价格和市场活动密切相关，可能在明年开始显著增长。</p>
<h2>Coinbase 可能会涨到多高？</h2>
<p>有一个指标可以帮助我们评估 Coinbase 在 2025 年的潜力：交易量。交易量是一个关键指标，帮助我们衡量加密周期的阶段，可以视为投资者兴趣的代理，并且通常随着市场周期的波动而变化。</p>
<p>在上一个牛市的巅峰期，Coinbase 在 2021 年第四季度处理了近 5500 亿美元的交易量。如今，随着加密市场的复苏，但仍远未达到上一个周期的高点，Coinbase 的交易量约为 2260 亿美元。这不仅表明了增长的空间，也表明如果再次出现牛市，可能会超过之前的记录，因为加密资产在这些周期中往往会突破旧高。</p>
<p>这一潜在的市场波动对 Coinbase 具有重大影响。在上一个牛市的高峰期，Coinbase 超过 90% 的收入来自交易费用。相比之下，目前交易费用仅占其收入的 47%，反映了 Coinbase 在其他收入来源方面的成功扩展。这意味着，随着交易量的上升，Coinbase 有更多的方式来货币化其平台，相较于之前的周期，增强了其收入潜力。</p>
<p>随着下一个加密牛市的逐步形成，Coinbase 不仅能从增加的交易费用中受益，还能从区块链奖励、保管费用以及其他订阅和服务中获益，这些都与加密价格高度相关。</p>
<p>虽然这只是推测，但一些粗略的 “草稿纸” 计算显示，如果交易量接近或超过上一个牛市的 5500 亿美元峰值，Coinbase 的多样化收入来源可能会产生创纪录的收入和利润。这不仅会使 Coinbase 回到历史高点，还可能使其创造新的记录。</p>
<p>那么，Coinbase 在一年后可能会处于何种状态？如果加密牛市确实伴随着因利率降低而增加的流动性而启动，Coinbase 可能会看到显著的提升。随着其多样化努力的成果显现和交易量的上升，Coinbase 不仅重新测试其之前的高点，甚至可能创造新的高点，这并不令人惊讶。</p>

COIN

<p>Coinbase Global 在过去一年中经历了显著的股票增长，这得益于其努力将收入来源多样化，超越交易费用。该公司成功拓展了稳定币收入，这一领域因合作伙伴关系和更高的利率而蓬勃发展。随着美联储可能降息，这可能会引发新的加密货币牛市，从而使 Coinbase 的其他收入来源受益。随着交易量可能上升，Coinbase 在超越之前的收入记录方面处于良好位置，这为明年的前景提供了乐观的展望</p>

<p>Just a year ago, <strong>Coinbase Global</strong>(COIN 2.02%) was trading around $75 per share. Fast-forward to today, and it has seen a major surge, climbing to roughly $210.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在一年前，<strong>Coinbase Global</strong>(COIN 2.02%) 的股价约为每股 75 美元。快进到今天，它经历了大幅上涨，攀升至大约 210 美元。</p>
</div><p>For those who joined me in investing in Coinbase over the last two years, you're already enjoying significant gains. But there's reason to believe that Coinbase might climb even higher over the next year, as it positions itself to capitalize on both emerging revenue streams and a potential bull market in the cryptocurrency space. Let's explore why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于过去两年与我一起投资 Coinbase 的人来说，你们已经享受到了显著的收益。但有理由相信，Coinbase 在未来一年可能会进一步上涨，因为它正在为利用新兴收入来源和潜在的加密货币牛市做好准备。让我们来探讨一下原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5NDMvcGVlcmluZy1hdC1zY3JlZW4tb3Zlci1nbGFzc2VzLTE1NTE3NDg1NDAuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795943%2Fpeering-at-screen-over-glasses-1551748540.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Diversifying revenue streams beyond transaction fees</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>除交易费用外的收入来源多样化</h2>
</div><p>If you've been following my coverage (or really, any analysis of Coinbase), you'll know that the company has made substantial strides in diversifying its revenue model over the past few years, a major factor behind its impressive stock performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你一直关注我的报道（或者说，任何关于 Coinbase 的分析），你会知道该公司在过去几年中在多样化收入模式方面取得了重大进展，这是其令人印象深刻的股票表现背后的主要因素。</p>
</div><p>Traditionally, Coinbase generated the bulk of its income through transaction fees, a model highly reliant on trading volume and vulnerable to market swings. Recognizing the need for stability, Coinbase began to build additional revenue sources, notably stablecoin revenue, which is now its second-most lucrative segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传统上，Coinbase 通过交易费用产生大部分收入，这一模式高度依赖交易量，并且容易受到市场波动的影响。意识到稳定性的重要性，Coinbase 开始建立额外的收入来源，尤其是稳定币收入，现在已成为其第二大盈利板块。</p>
</div><p>Coinbase's stablecoin business has thrived over the past two years, benefiting from its partnership with Circle, the issuer of <strong>USD Coin</strong>. With higher interest rates, Coinbase has leveraged funds from USDC buyers to invest in Treasury bills, which yield better returns during rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 的稳定币业务在过去两年中蓬勃发展，得益于与 <strong>USD Coin</strong> 发行方 Circle 的合作。随着利率上升，Coinbase 利用 USDC 买家的资金投资于国债，这在加息期间带来了更好的回报。</p>
</div><p>This strategy paid off, with stablecoin revenue hitting a record $250 million in Q3 2024. However, this stream may take a hit as the Federal Reserve performs a rate-cutting cycle over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一策略取得了成效，稳定币收入在 2024 年第三季度达到了创纪录的 2.5 亿美元。然而，随着美联储在未来一年进行降息，这一收入来源可能会受到影响。</p>
</div><p>But this is where Coinbase's diversified revenue model will begin to shine. While a reduction in rates might dampen the income generated from stablecoins, it could simultaneously spark a new crypto bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这正是 Coinbase 多样化收入模式开始显现光芒的地方。虽然利率的降低可能会抑制稳定币产生的收入，但它可能同时会引发新的加密货币牛市。</p>
</div><p>As rates fall, the cost of borrowing decreases, and liquidity in the economy tends to increase. Historically, a low-interest rate environment encourages risk appetite, which often leads to more capital flowing into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies (as seen in the bull market of 2021, when rates were at nearly 0%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着利率下降，借贷成本降低，经济中的流动性往往会增加。历史上，低利率环境会鼓励风险偏好，这通常会导致更多资金流入像加密货币这样的高风险资产（正如 2021 年牛市时的情况，当时利率几乎为 0%）。</p>
</div><p>With the market projecting rate cuts to reach their peak by mid-2025, Coinbase's other revenue streams (such as transaction fees, blockchain rewards, and custodial services), which correlate closely with cryptocurrency prices and market activity, may begin to see significant growth in the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着市场预计到 2025 年中期利率将达到峰值，Coinbase 的其他收入来源（如交易费用、区块链奖励和保管服务）与加密货币价格和市场活动密切相关，可能在明年开始显著增长。</p>
</div><h2>How high could Coinbase go?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Coinbase 可能会涨到多高？</h2>
</div><p>There's one metric that can help us assess Coinbase's potential in 2025: exchange volume. A key measure that helps us gauge the stage of the crypto cycle, exchange volume can be viewed as a proxy for investor interest, and it tends to rise and fall with market cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一个指标可以帮助我们评估 Coinbase 在 2025 年的潜力：交易量。交易量是一个关键指标，帮助我们衡量加密周期的阶段，可以视为投资者兴趣的代理，并且通常随着市场周期的波动而变化。</p>
</div><p>At the peak of the last bull market, Coinbase processed nearly $550 billion of trading volume in Q4 2021. Today, with the crypto market recovering but still far from the highs of the last cycle, Coinbase's volume sits at around $226 billion. This suggests not only room for growth, but also the potential to exceed previous records if another bull market takes shape, as crypto assets often break past old highs in these cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上一个牛市的巅峰期，Coinbase 在 2021 年第四季度处理了近 5500 亿美元的交易量。如今，随着加密市场的复苏，但仍远未达到上一个周期的高点，Coinbase 的交易量约为 2260 亿美元。这不仅表明了增长的空间，也表明如果再次出现牛市，可能会超过之前的记录，因为加密资产在这些周期中往往会突破旧高。</p>
</div><p>This potential market swing holds major implications for Coinbase. During the height of the previous bull run, over 90% of Coinbase's revenue came from transaction fees. In contrast, transaction fees now account for just 47% of its revenue, reflecting Coinbase's successful expansion into other revenue streams. This means that, as volume rises, Coinbase has more ways to monetize its platform than it did in previous cycles, amplifying its revenue potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一潜在的市场波动对 Coinbase 具有重大影响。在上一个牛市的高峰期，Coinbase 超过 90% 的收入来自交易费用。相比之下，目前交易费用仅占其收入的 47%，反映了 Coinbase 在其他收入来源方面的成功扩展。这意味着，随着交易量的上升，Coinbase 有更多的方式来货币化其平台，相较于之前的周期，增强了其收入潜力。</p>
</div><p>As the next crypto bull market gains traction, Coinbase is positioned to benefit not only from increased transaction fees, but also from other revenue sources like blockchain rewards, custodial fees, and other subscriptions and services, which are highly correlated to crypto prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着下一个加密牛市的逐步形成，Coinbase 不仅能从增加的交易费用中受益，还能从区块链奖励、保管费用以及其他订阅和服务中获益，这些都与加密价格高度相关。</p>
</div><p>Although it's speculative, some rough &#34;back-of-the-napkin&#34; math shows that if exchange volume is approaching or surpassing the $550 billion peak of the last bull market, Coinbase's diversified revenue streams could produce record revenue and profits. This would not only bring Coinbase back to its all-time highs, but could also set it up to break new records.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这只是推测，但一些粗略的 “草稿纸” 计算显示，如果交易量接近或超过上一个牛市的 5500 亿美元峰值，Coinbase 的多样化收入来源可能会产生创纪录的收入和利润。这不仅会使 Coinbase 回到历史高点，还可能使其创造新的记录。</p>
</div><p>So, where might Coinbase be in a year? If a crypto bull market indeed takes off alongside increasing liquidity from lower interest rates, Coinbase could see a substantial boost. With its diversification efforts paying off and exchange volume set to rise, it wouldn't be surprising to see Coinbase not only retesting its previous highs but potentially setting new ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，Coinbase 在一年后可能会处于何种状态？如果加密牛市确实伴随着因利率降低而增加的流动性而启动，Coinbase 可能会看到显著的提升。随着其多样化努力的成果显现和交易量的上升，Coinbase 不仅重新测试其之前的高点，甚至可能创造新的高点，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div>

Where Will Coinbase Be in a Year?

- Coinbase 通过多元化收入模式实现显著增长，稳定币收入创下新高。  
- 随着利率下降，可能刺激加密货币牛市，推动交易量上升。  
- Coinbase 有望在未来一年内实现创纪录的收入和利润。  

Coinbase 一年后会处于什么位置？