<p>至少在金钱方面，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.35%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在即将到来的选举中可能没有人比他更有风险。</p>
<p>在所有知名商业领袖中，马斯克是前总统唐纳德·特朗普最明显的支持者，甚至出现在他的集会上，包括上周日在纽约市麦迪逊广场花园举行的特朗普 “最后陈述” 集会。</p>
<p>马斯克选择与特朗普结盟有些讽刺，因为前总统经常贬低电动车和可再生能源，但马斯克似乎更看重共和党的承诺，即削减监管，并认为特朗普在 “言论自由” 等其他问题上与他的观点更为一致。马斯克还 reportedly 对拜登总统在拜登政府初期没有邀请他参加电动车的座谈会感到不满。此后，他逐渐远离民主党，转向共和党。</p>
<p>马斯克对特朗普竞选的重大押注正值特斯拉加大对自动驾驶的投入，因为该公司在 10 月初的一个活动中推出了其自动驾驶 “网络出租车”。特斯拉首席执行官基本上表示，他公司的未来依赖于自动驾驶，并且认为特斯拉是引领向自动驾驶汽车（AV）过渡的最佳公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5MzkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5MzkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉面临的重大选举风险</h2>
<p>特斯拉无法在没有联邦政府和国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）等机构的帮助下实现向自动驾驶汽车的过渡，州级监管机构也需要对新技术进行批准。马斯克甚至在特斯拉最近的财报电话会议上表达了希望有一个联邦机制来监管自动驾驶汽车，而不是在州级进行。他计划最初在德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州推出网络出租车。</p>
<p>自然，安全是监管机构和道路上任何人的首要关注，自动驾驶事故已经给像 <strong>优步科技</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 这样的公司带来了重大挫折，这些公司曾希望将自动驾驶汽车推向市场。</p>
<p>目前，NHTSA 不允许像网络出租车这样的车辆在没有方向盘或踏板等驾驶控制的情况下上路。如果允许，这一过渡可能会缓慢进行。特斯拉可能能够获得豁免，每年在路上投放 2500 辆网络出租车，但这仍然与马斯克希望每年在路上投放数百万辆汽车的愿景相去甚远。</p>
<p>如果副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在周二的总统选举中获胜，特斯拉不会立即受到影响。考虑到马斯克近年来对民主党和监管机构表现出的敌意，他在社交媒体公司 X（前身为推特）上提升右翼观点，以及对哈里斯和其他民主党的侮辱，可以想象监管机构可能会对这家领先的电动车公司采取更严厉的态度，甚至可能在特斯拉的自动驾驶愿望上拖延，或偏向特斯拉的竞争对手，考虑到马斯克在竞选期间的行为。如此大型上市公司的首席执行官如此强烈地支持一位总统候选人并反对另一位候选人是相当罕见的。通常，大公司会对赢家进行对冲，以便保持良好的关系，无论赢家是谁。</p>
<p>特斯拉投资者应该注意，_大多数_在职或竞选的民主党人（包括哈里斯）并没有公开针对马斯克或呼吁对他或特斯拉（或马斯克的其他公司）采取行动，基于他的政治观点。哈里斯在竞选时表示，她竞选是为了代表所有美国人，并接受她的领导会有反对意见。确实，一些候选人和哈里斯的代理人曾表示马斯克在其观点上是误导的，或者他对公众表达的一些观点存在误导。一些左翼评论员对马斯克及其所采取的行动表示担忧，并呼吁对这些行动进行调查，认为可能违反了各种法律。包括哈里斯在内的民主党人讨论马斯克或特斯拉时，最接近的内容是呼吁对亿万富翁和公司_普遍_进行税收政策和监管政策的改变。</p>
<h2>这对特斯拉为何是个问题</h2>
<p>特斯拉是一家低利润的汽车制造商，其估值相当于一家颠覆性科技公司。这是因为它在电动车领域的领导地位以及马斯克对自动驾驶的承诺，但如果自动驾驶的过渡未能实现，特斯拉的股票可能会大幅下跌，尤其是在股票刚刚因其第三季度财报而飙升之后。</p>
<p>特斯拉的股票目前的市盈率超过 100，尽管预计今年的收入增长持平。马斯克预测明年的产量增长为 20% 到 30%，但在这一点上，尤其是在马斯克对自动驾驶的所有炒作之后，未能实现或显著延迟可能会对股票造成重创。</p>
<p>要预览这可能是什么样子，投资者只需回顾 10 月 10 日 “我们，机器人” 事件后的市场反应，因为股票下跌了 9%，投资者希望获得更多关于网络出租车和特斯拉的 Optimus 自动机器人细节。</p>
<h2>在哈里斯政府下的特斯拉</h2>
<p>马斯克在竞选期间对特朗普的支持在哈里斯政府中可能毫无意义，无论白宫里是谁，特斯拉都可能会得到监管机构的支持。</p>
<p>但现在，特斯拉首席执行官的党派立场如果特朗普输掉选举，对股票构成明显风险。电动车股票在哈里斯获胜时可能不会暴跌，但在监管机构是否会反对特斯拉的自动驾驶之路尚不明确之前，这应该会对股票形成上限。</p>

特斯拉

<p>埃隆·马斯克对唐纳德·特朗普的支持在选举临近时引发了对特斯拉的担忧。如果卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，监管机构可能会因马斯克的政治立场对特斯拉的自动驾驶汽车雄心采取更严厉的态度。特斯拉对政府批准其网络出租车的依赖可能会受到威胁，从而影响其市场地位。尽管马斯克对自动驾驶充满信心，但特斯拉的高估值和低利润率使其在向自动驾驶汽车过渡时变得脆弱。如果自动驾驶的过渡出现问题，投资者应保持谨慎，因为该股票在收入增长不确定的情况下交易于高市盈率水平</p>

<p>At least in terms of dollars, there may be nobody with more on the line in the upcoming election than <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.35%) CEO Elon Musk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少在金钱方面，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.35%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在即将到来的选举中可能没有人比他更有风险。</p>
</div><p>Out of any well-known business leader, Musk has been the most visible advocate for former president Donald Trump, even appearing at his rallies, including Trump's &#34;closing argument&#34; rally last Sunday at New York City's Madison Square Garden.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在所有知名商业领袖中，马斯克是前总统唐纳德·特朗普最明显的支持者，甚至出现在他的集会上，包括上周日在纽约市麦迪逊广场花园举行的特朗普 “最后陈述” 集会。</p>
</div><p>It's a bit ironic that Musk has chosen to align with Trump, as the former president has regularly derided electric vehicles and renewable energy, but Musk seems to prioritize the GOP's promise to cut regulations and believes Trump is more aligned with his views on other issues like &#34;free speech.&#34; Musk was also reportedly stung by President Joe Biden's not inviting him to participate in a panel discussion on EVs near the start of Biden's administration. He has since drifted away from Democrats and toward Republicans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克选择与特朗普结盟有些讽刺，因为前总统经常贬低电动车和可再生能源，但马斯克似乎更看重共和党的承诺，即削减监管，并认为特朗普在 “言论自由” 等其他问题上与他的观点更为一致。马斯克还 reportedly 对拜登总统在拜登政府初期没有邀请他参加电动车的座谈会感到不满。此后，他逐渐远离民主党，转向共和党。</p>
</div><p>Musk's big bet on the Trump campaign comes just as Tesla is ramping up its own bet on autonomy as the company introduced its autonomous &#34;Cybercab&#34; at an event earlier in October. The Tesla chief has essentially said that the future of his company depends on autonomy and that it's the best-positioned company to lead the transition to autonomous vehicles (AVs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克对特朗普竞选的重大押注正值特斯拉加大对自动驾驶的投入，因为该公司在 10 月初的一个活动中推出了其自动驾驶 “网络出租车”。特斯拉首席执行官基本上表示，他公司的未来依赖于自动驾驶，并且认为特斯拉是引领向自动驾驶汽车（AV）过渡的最佳公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5MzkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795939%2Ftesla-cybertruck-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's big election risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉面临的重大选举风险</h2>
</div><p>Tesla can't make the transition to autonomous vehicles without the help of the federal government and agencies like the National Highway Transportation Safety Agency (NHTSA), as well as state-level regulators, which also need to sign off on the new technology. Musk even expressed his desire for a federal mechanism to regulate AVs on Tesla's recent earnings call, rather than doing it at the state level. He aims to launch the Cybercab initially in Texas and California.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉无法在没有联邦政府和国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）等机构的帮助下实现向自动驾驶汽车的过渡，州级监管机构也需要对新技术进行批准。马斯克甚至在特斯拉最近的财报电话会议上表达了希望有一个联邦机制来监管自动驾驶汽车，而不是在州级进行。他计划最初在德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州推出网络出租车。</p>
</div><p>Naturally, safety is a top concern of both regulators and anyone on the road, and AV accidents have already delivered significant setbacks to companies like <strong>Uber Technologies</strong> and <strong>General Motors</strong> that have had aspirations of bringing AVs to market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自然，安全是监管机构和道路上任何人的首要关注，自动驾驶事故已经给像 <strong>优步科技</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 这样的公司带来了重大挫折，这些公司曾希望将自动驾驶汽车推向市场。</p>
</div><p>Currently, the NHTSA doesn't allow vehicles, like the Cybercab, on the road without driver controls like a steering wheel or pedals. When and if it does, that transition is likely to happen slowly. Tesla may be able to get an exemption to put 2,500 Cybercabs per year on the road, but that is still a far cry from Musk's vision of putting millions of these cars on the road each year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，NHTSA 不允许像网络出租车这样的车辆在没有方向盘或踏板等驾驶控制的情况下上路。如果允许，这一过渡可能会缓慢进行。特斯拉可能能够获得豁免，每年在路上投放 2500 辆网络出租车，但这仍然与马斯克希望每年在路上投放数百万辆汽车的愿景相去甚远。</p>
</div><p>If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election on Tuesday, there won't be any immediate consequences for Tesla. Given the animosity Musk has shown toward Democrats and regulators in recent years, his elevation of right-wing views on X (the social media company he owns formerly known as Twitter), and his insults of Harris and other Democrats, it would be easy to imagine regulators taking a harsher view of the leading EV company, perhaps even dragging their feet on Tesla's autonomous aspirations or showing preference to Tesla's competitors, given Musk's antics during the campaign. It's quite rare for a CEO of such a large publicly traded company to advocate so strongly for one presidential candidate and against another. Typically, big companies hedge their bets as they want to stay in the good graces of the winner, whoever that is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在周二的总统选举中获胜，特斯拉不会立即受到影响。考虑到马斯克近年来对民主党和监管机构表现出的敌意，他在社交媒体公司 X（前身为推特）上提升右翼观点，以及对哈里斯和其他民主党的侮辱，可以想象监管机构可能会对这家领先的电动车公司采取更严厉的态度，甚至可能在特斯拉的自动驾驶愿望上拖延，或偏向特斯拉的竞争对手，考虑到马斯克在竞选期间的行为。如此大型上市公司的首席执行官如此强烈地支持一位总统候选人并反对另一位候选人是相当罕见的。通常，大公司会对赢家进行对冲，以便保持良好的关系，无论赢家是谁。</p>
</div><p>Tesla investors should note that <em>most</em> Democrats in office or running for office (including Harris) have not publicly targeted Musk or called for actions against him or against Tesla (or any of Musk's other companies) based on his political views. Harris has said while campaigning that she is running for office to represent all Americans and that she accepts that there will be opposition to her leadership. Certainly, some candidates and Harris surrogates have suggested Musk is misguided in his views and/or that he has misled the public about some of the views he is expressing. Some left-wing punditry have expressed concerns about Musk and the actions he has taken and have called for investigations into those actions as potentially violating various laws. The closest Democrats, including Harris, have come to discussing Musk or Tesla are campaign platforms that call for tax policy changes and regulatory changes that would affect billionaires and corporations <em>generally</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉投资者应该注意，_大多数_在职或竞选的民主党人（包括哈里斯）并没有公开针对马斯克或呼吁对他或特斯拉（或马斯克的其他公司）采取行动，基于他的政治观点。哈里斯在竞选时表示，她竞选是为了代表所有美国人，并接受她的领导会有反对意见。确实，一些候选人和哈里斯的代理人曾表示马斯克在其观点上是误导的，或者他对公众表达的一些观点存在误导。一些左翼评论员对马斯克及其所采取的行动表示担忧，并呼吁对这些行动进行调查，认为可能违反了各种法律。包括哈里斯在内的民主党人讨论马斯克或特斯拉时，最接近的内容是呼吁对亿万富翁和公司_普遍_进行税收政策和监管政策的改变。</p>
</div><h2>Why it's a problem for Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对特斯拉为何是个问题</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is a low-margin automaker that trades at the valuation of a disruptive tech company. That's because of its leadership in electric vehicles and Musk's promises around autonomy, but Tesla stock could have a long way to fall if the autonomous transition doesn't pan out, especially after the stock just surged on its third-quarter earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉是一家低利润的汽车制造商，其估值相当于一家颠覆性科技公司。这是因为它在电动车领域的领导地位以及马斯克对自动驾驶的承诺，但如果自动驾驶的过渡未能实现，特斯拉的股票可能会大幅下跌，尤其是在股票刚刚因其第三季度财报而飙升之后。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio above 100, even though it's expected to report flat revenue growth this year. Musk has forecast production growth of 20% to 30% next year, but at this point, especially after all of Musk's hype around autonomy, a failure or significant delay in getting there is likely to hammer the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的股票目前的市盈率超过 100，尽管预计今年的收入增长持平。马斯克预测明年的产量增长为 20% 到 30%，但在这一点上，尤其是在马斯克对自动驾驶的所有炒作之后，未能实现或显著延迟可能会对股票造成重创。</p>
</div><p>For a preview of what that could look like, investors only have to look back to the market's reaction to the Oct. 10 &#34;We, Robot&#34; event as the stock fell 9% as investors had hoped for more details on the Cybercab and Tesla's Optimus autonomous robot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要预览这可能是什么样子，投资者只需回顾 10 月 10 日 “我们，机器人” 事件后的市场反应，因为股票下跌了 9%，投资者希望获得更多关于网络出租车和特斯拉的 Optimus 自动机器人细节。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla under a Harris administration</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在哈里斯政府下的特斯拉</h2>
</div><p>Musk's support of Trump during the campaign could easily be irrelevant in a Harris administration, and the company could end up getting its wishes from regulators no matter who's in the White House.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克在竞选期间对特朗普的支持在哈里斯政府中可能毫无意义，无论白宫里是谁，特斯拉都可能会得到监管机构的支持。</p>
</div><p>But right now, the Tesla chief's partisanship is a clear risk to the stock if Trump loses. The EV stock may not plunge on a Harris victory, but it should put a ceiling on the stock until it's clear that regulators will not oppose Tesla's path to autonomy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在，特斯拉首席执行官的党派立场如果特朗普输掉选举，对股票构成明显风险。电动车股票在哈里斯获胜时可能不会暴跌，但在监管机构是否会反对特斯拉的自动驾驶之路尚不明确之前，这应该会对股票形成上限。</p>
</div>

Elon Musk's Big Gamble: Will Tesla Stock Plunge if Kamala Harris Wins the Election?

- 特斯拉 CEO 埃隆·马斯克在即将到来的选举中面临重大风险。  
- 马斯克支持特朗普，可能影响特斯拉的自主驾驶计划。  
- 特斯拉股价可能因政治因素而波动，尤其在监管态度不明的情况下。

埃隆·马斯克的大赌注：如果卡玛拉·哈里斯赢得选举，特斯拉的股票会暴跌吗？