<p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.47%) 周四下跌了 6.1%，这是自 2022 年 10 月 26 日以来的最糟糕表现，当时这家科技巨头下滑了 7.7%。即使在周五上涨了 1% 后，微软今年迄今的涨幅仍不足 8%，远远落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数 20.1% 的年初至今涨幅。</p>
<p>以下是为什么微软的出色业绩未能令投资者印象深刻，但这只成长股仍可能值得购买的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTYzMzcvZ2V0dHktZGVidC13b3JyeS13b3JyaWVkLWNvbmNlcm4tMTIwMHg3MzItODFlYjYzZC0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTYzMzcvZ2V0dHktZGVidC13b3JyeS13b3JyaWVkLWNvbmNlcm4tMTIwMHg3MzItODFlYjYzZC0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>业绩大爆发</h2>
<p>与上一个财年同期相比，微软的收入增长了 16%，营业收入增长了 14%，稀释每股收益 (EPS) 增长了 10%。该公司在三个部门下报告其业绩：生产力与业务流程、智能云和更多个人计算。</p>
<p>智能云包括 Azure 和其他云服务、服务器产品、GitHub 云等。但微软有时会讨论更广泛的微软云，这包括智能云部门加上其他云服务，如微软 365 云——这在技术上属于生产力与业务流程。</p>
<p>本季度微软云的收入为 389 亿美元，同比增长 22%，毛利率为 71%——这意味着高毛利的云收入现在占总收入的 59%。更令人震惊的是，微软云本季度的收入超过了四年前同季度整个业务的收入。</p>
<p>微软云产品和服务的增长是公司近年来快速增长其收入和利润的核心原因。</p>
<p>它还受益于收购。收购动视暴雪使 Xbox 内容和服务的收入增长了 61%。如果不考虑收购，这一项的增长仅为 8%。</p>
<p>并不是所有业务功能都在全力运转。例如，Windows 产品和设备仅增长了 2%。</p>
<p>但总体而言，微软的业绩非常出色。相反，其对人工智能 (AI) 的指导和支出习惯让投资者感到不安。</p>
<h2>大量投入人工智能</h2>
<p>本季度，智能云收入增长了 20%，而 Azure 和其他云服务——微软云中增长最快的部分——增长了 33%。但对于下个季度，微软预计智能云收入将在固定汇率下增长 18% 至 20%，Azure 增长 31% 至 32%——这代表着增长的轻微放缓。</p>
<p>通常情况下，增长放缓一两个百分点并不算大事，特别是考虑到微软近年来的惊人增长。但该公司在人工智能上的支出非常庞大。目前，这些投资似乎对短期增长数据的贡献不足。</p>
<p>在财报电话会议上，管理层表示，它是首个推出 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的 Blackwell 系统的云服务，配备 GB200 驱动的 AI 服务器。微软在人工智能投资方面保持领先地位，并拥有足够的现金流来支付顶级产品的高价。</p>
<p>但随着其人工智能支出的增加，投资者对公司将这些支出转化为业绩的压力也会加大。</p>
<p>本季度，包括融资租赁在内的资本支出 (capex) 为 200 亿美元。这意味着每收入 1 美元中几乎有 30 美分被投入到资本支出中。</p>
<p>首席财务官艾米·胡德在财报电话会议上表示：“我们大约一半的云和与 AI 相关的支出仍然用于长期资产，这将支持未来 15 年及更长时间的货币化。其余的云和 AI 支出主要用于服务器，包括 CPU 和 GPU，以根据需求信号为客户提供服务。”</p>
<p>在电话会议的后期，胡德表示：“我们预计资本支出将根据我们的云和 AI 需求信号在季度间增加。正如我上个季度所说，我们将保持一致，如果需要，将根据我们看到的需求信号进行调整。”</p>
<p>换句话说，微软表示投资者不应期待其部分资本支出会立即见效，而是这些投资将为未来的增长奠定基础。并且它表示可能会继续加大资本支出。</p>
<h2>微软正在进行正确的长期布局</h2>
<p>关注短期问题的投资者可能会批评微软对人工智能过于兴奋，盲目投入资金于项目。在某些方面也许确实如此。但该公司有资源进行这些布局。因此，过度支出总比不足支出、落后于竞争对手要好。</p>
<p>该公司拥有无可挑剔的资产负债表，现金、现金等价物和可交易证券的总额超过债务。它有一个庞大的资本回报计划，包括股息和股票回购。在截至 6 月 30 日的 2024 财年中，它偿还了 290.7 亿美元的债务，支付了 217.7 亿美元的股息，以及 172.5 亿美元的股票回购。</p>
<p>如果管理层在牺牲资本回报计划或财务健康的情况下大幅增加资本支出，那将是一个红旗，但事实并非如此。该公司能够积极投资于人工智能，并为成为企业软件和云基础设施的人工智能领导者奠定基础。</p>
<p>另外，它也可以将多余的现金用于并购 (M&amp;A)，而不是有机增长。然而，考虑到许多人工智能投资基本上是对现有工具的产品升级，该公司应该自行创新。</p>
<p>事实上，当一家公司，尤其是科技公司，过于依赖并购时，可能会成为一个红旗。这可能表明该公司无法独立增长，可能是由于管理不善、缺乏人才，或产品和服务组合在市场上失去竞争力。</p>
<h2>微软仍然是耐心投资者的全面买入选择</h2>
<p>微软的抛售为那些认同其资本配置策略的投资者提供了买入机会。此外，管理层已经明确表示，计划继续在人工智能上进行大规模投资，这可能会影响其短期增长率。因此，认为应该减少支出的投资者可能会选择卖出该股票。而希望看到人工智能变现带来更具体成果的人可能会选择观望。</p>
<p>以仅 33.9 的市盈率来看，该股票作为获取人工智能、云计算、硬件、游戏等多元化投资的合理价格选择，显得尤为突出。即使支出增加，微软的收入和每股收益仍在以两位数的增长率增长。总体而言，它仍然是蓝筹成长股的完整组合。</p>

微软

<p>微软的股票下跌了 6.1%，创下自 2022 年 10 月以来的最差表现，尽管其财报显示收入增长了 16%。公司的云收入激增了 22%，但对人工智能支出和未来增长预期的担忧导致投资者感到不安。微软在人工智能方面进行了大量投资，资本支出接近收入的 30%。虽然一些投资者可能担心短期业绩，但微软强劲的资产负债表和长期战略表明，它正为未来的增长做好良好布局</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.47%) fell 6.1% on Thursday, its worst session since Oct. 26, 2022, when the tech giant slipped 7.7%. Even after gaining 1% on Friday, Microsoft is up less than 8% year to date (YTD), heavily underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s 20.1% YTD gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.47%) 周四下跌了 6.1%，这是自 2022 年 10 月 26 日以来的最糟糕表现，当时这家科技巨头下滑了 7.7%。即使在周五上涨了 1% 后，微软今年迄今的涨幅仍不足 8%，远远落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数 20.1% 的年初至今涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Here's why Microsoft's stellar results weren't enough to impress investors but why the growth stock could still be worth buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是为什么微软的出色业绩未能令投资者印象深刻，但这只成长股仍可能值得购买的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTYzMzcvZ2V0dHktZGVidC13b3JyeS13b3JyaWVkLWNvbmNlcm4tMTIwMHg3MzItODFlYjYzZC0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796337%2Fgetty-debt-worry-worried-concern-1200x732-81eb63d-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A blowout quarter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>业绩大爆发</h2>
</div><p>Compared to same period last fiscal year, Microsoft grew revenue by 16%, operating income by 14%, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) by 10%. The company reports its results under three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与上一个财年同期相比，微软的收入增长了 16%，营业收入增长了 14%，稀释每股收益 (EPS) 增长了 10%。该公司在三个部门下报告其业绩：生产力与业务流程、智能云和更多个人计算。</p>
</div><p>Intelligent Cloud includes Azure and other cloud services, server products, GitHub cloud, and more. But Microsoft sometimes discusses the broader Microsoft Cloud, which is the Intelligent Cloud segment plus other cloud services like Microsoft 365 cloud -- which is technically under Productivity and Business Processes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>智能云包括 Azure 和其他云服务、服务器产品、GitHub 云等。但微软有时会讨论更广泛的微软云，这包括智能云部门加上其他云服务，如微软 365 云——这在技术上属于生产力与业务流程。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft Cloud revenue for the quarter was $38.9 billion, up 22%, with a gross margin of 71% -- meaning that high-margin cloud revenue now makes up 59% of total revenue. Or even more staggering, Microsoft Cloud alone earned more revenue this quarter than the entire business earned in the same quarter just four years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本季度微软云的收入为 389 亿美元，同比增长 22%，毛利率为 71%——这意味着高毛利的云收入现在占总收入的 59%。更令人震惊的是，微软云本季度的收入超过了四年前同季度整个业务的收入。</p>
</div><p>The growth across Microsoft's cloud products and services has been a core reason the company has grown its top and bottom lines rapidly in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软云产品和服务的增长是公司近年来快速增长其收入和利润的核心原因。</p>
</div><p>It has also benefited from acquisitions. The purchase of Activision Blizzard boosted Xbox content and services revenue by 61%. Take out the acquisition, and that line item would have been up just 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还受益于收购。收购动视暴雪使 Xbox 内容和服务的收入增长了 61%。如果不考虑收购，这一项的增长仅为 8%。</p>
</div><p>Not every business function is firing on all cylinders. For example, Windows products and devices grew just 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是所有业务功能都在全力运转。例如，Windows 产品和设备仅增长了 2%。</p>
</div><p>But overall, Microsoft's results were excellent. Rather, its guidance and spending habits on artificial intelligence (AI) are what spooked investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但总体而言，微软的业绩非常出色。相反，其对人工智能 (AI) 的指导和支出习惯让投资者感到不安。</p>
</div><h2>Pouring money into AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大量投入人工智能</h2>
</div><p>For the quarter, Intelligent Cloud revenue grew 20%, and Azure and other cloud services -- the fastest growing part of Microsoft Cloud -- grew 33%. But for next quarter, Microsoft expects Intelligent Cloud revenue to grow 18% to 20% in constant currency and Azure to grow 31% to 32% -- which represents a slight deceleration in growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本季度，智能云收入增长了 20%，而 Azure 和其他云服务——微软云中增长最快的部分——增长了 33%。但对于下个季度，微软预计智能云收入将在固定汇率下增长 18% 至 20%，Azure 增长 31% 至 32%——这代表着增长的轻微放缓。</p>
</div><p>Normally, a slowdown of a percentage point or two wouldn't be a big deal, especially given Microsoft's incredible surge in recent years. But the company has been spending a ton of money on AI. For now, it seems those investments are not contributing enough to near-term growth figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情况下，增长放缓一两个百分点并不算大事，特别是考虑到微软近年来的惊人增长。但该公司在人工智能上的支出非常庞大。目前，这些投资似乎对短期增长数据的贡献不足。</p>
</div><p>During the earnings call, management said that it has the first cloud to debut <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s Blackwell system with GB200-powered AI servers. Microsoft remains on the cutting edge of AI investment and has the cash flow to pull off paying top dollar for the best of the best.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财报电话会议上，管理层表示，它是首个推出 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的 Blackwell 系统的云服务，配备 GB200 驱动的 AI 服务器。微软在人工智能投资方面保持领先地位，并拥有足够的现金流来支付顶级产品的高价。</p>
</div><p>But the more it ramps up AI spending, the more pressure investors will put on the company to translate that spending into results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着其人工智能支出的增加，投资者对公司将这些支出转化为业绩的压力也会加大。</p>
</div><p>For the quarter, capital expenditures (capex), including finance leases, were $20 billion. Meaning that nearly 30 cents for every dollar in revenue is getting poured into capex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本季度，包括融资租赁在内的资本支出 (capex) 为 200 亿美元。这意味着每收入 1 美元中几乎有 30 美分被投入到资本支出中。</p>
</div><p>Chief financial officer Amy Hood said on the earnings call: &#34;Roughly half of our cloud and AI-related spend continues to be for long-lived assets that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond. The remaining cloud and AI spend is primarily for servers, both CPUs and GPUs, to serve customers based on demand signals.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席财务官艾米·胡德在财报电话会议上表示：“我们大约一半的云和与 AI 相关的支出仍然用于长期资产，这将支持未来 15 年及更长时间的货币化。其余的云和 AI 支出主要用于服务器，包括 CPU 和 GPU，以根据需求信号为客户提供服务。”</p>
</div><p>Later in the call, Hood said: &#34;We expect capital expenditures to increase on a sequential basis given our cloud and AI demand signals. As I said last quarter, we will stay aligned, and if needed, adjust to the demand signals we see.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在电话会议的后期，胡德表示：“我们预计资本支出将根据我们的云和 AI 需求信号在季度间增加。正如我上个季度所说，我们将保持一致，如果需要，将根据我们看到的需求信号进行调整。”</p>
</div><p>In other words, Microsoft is saying that investors shouldn't expect some of its capex to immediately pay off, but rather that these investments will set the stage for future growth. And it is saying it could continue accelerating its capital spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，微软表示投资者不应期待其部分资本支出会立即见效，而是这些投资将为未来的增长奠定基础。并且它表示可能会继续加大资本支出。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft is making the right long-term moves</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软正在进行正确的长期布局</h2>
</div><p>Investors who focus on short-term matters may criticize Microsoft for getting overexcited about AI and recklessly throwing money at projects. And maybe that's so in some respects. But the company has the resources to make these moves. So it's better to overspend than underspend and fall behind the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关注短期问题的投资者可能会批评微软对人工智能过于兴奋，盲目投入资金于项目。在某些方面也许确实如此。但该公司有资源进行这些布局。因此，过度支出总比不足支出、落后于竞争对手要好。</p>
</div><p>The company has an impeccable balance sheet with more cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities than debt. It has a massive capital return program consisting of dividends and stock repurchases. In fiscal 2024, which ended June 30, it paid off $29.07 billion in debt and spent $21.77 billion on dividends, and $17.25 billion on stock repurchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司拥有无可挑剔的资产负债表，现金、现金等价物和可交易证券的总额超过债务。它有一个庞大的资本回报计划，包括股息和股票回购。在截至 6 月 30 日的 2024 财年中，它偿还了 290.7 亿美元的债务，支付了 217.7 亿美元的股息，以及 172.5 亿美元的股票回购。</p>
</div><p>It would be a red flag if management were ramping up capex at the expense of its capital return program or financial health, but that simply isn't the case. The company can afford to invest in AI aggressively and is laying the foundation to be a leader in AI for enterprise software and cloud infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果管理层在牺牲资本回报计划或财务健康的情况下大幅增加资本支出，那将是一个红旗，但事实并非如此。该公司能够积极投资于人工智能，并为成为企业软件和云基础设施的人工智能领导者奠定基础。</p>
</div><p>Alternatively, it could use its excess cash on mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) instead of organic growth. However, given that many of the AI investments are basically product upgrades to existing tools, the company should innovate on its own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外，它也可以将多余的现金用于并购 (M&amp;A)，而不是有机增长。然而，考虑到许多人工智能投资基本上是对现有工具的产品升级，该公司应该自行创新。</p>
</div><p>In fact, it can be a red flag when a company, especially a tech company, relies too heavily on M&amp;A. It can be a sign that the company is incapable of growing on its own, either through poor management, a lack of talent, or a product and service suite that is losing market share to the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，当一家公司，尤其是科技公司，过于依赖并购时，可能会成为一个红旗。这可能表明该公司无法独立增长，可能是由于管理不善、缺乏人才，或产品和服务组合在市场上失去竞争力。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft remains a well-rounded buy for patient investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软仍然是耐心投资者的全面买入选择</h2>
</div><p>The sell-off in Microsoft is a buying opportunity for investors who agree with its capital allocation strategy. Moreover, management has made it abundantly clear that it intends to continue spending aggressively on AI, which could affect its near-term growth rates. So investors who believe it should pull back on spending may decide to sell the stock. And folks who want to see more-tangible results from AI monetization may want to take a wait-and-see approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的抛售为那些认同其资本配置策略的投资者提供了买入机会。此外，管理层已经明确表示，计划继续在人工智能上进行大规模投资，这可能会影响其短期增长率。因此，认为应该减少支出的投资者可能会选择卖出该股票。而希望看到人工智能变现带来更具体成果的人可能会选择观望。</p>
</div><p>With just a 33.9 price-to-earnings ratio, the stock stands out as a reasonably priced way to get diversified exposure to AI, the cloud, hardware, gaming, and more. Even with heightened spending, Microsoft is still growing its revenue and EPS at double-digit growth rates. All told, it remains the complete package in blue chip growth stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以仅 33.9 的市盈率来看，该股票作为获取人工智能、云计算、硬件、游戏等多元化投资的合理价格选择，显得尤为突出。即使支出增加，微软的收入和每股收益仍在以两位数的增长率增长。总体而言，它仍然是蓝筹成长股的完整组合。</p>
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Microsoft Stock Just Had Its Worst Day in Two Years. Is It a Buy Now?

- 微软季度收入增长 16%，云服务收入达  9 亿美元，增长 22%。  
- 投资者对其 AI 支出和未来增长预期感到担忧。  
- 当前股价为 33.9 倍市盈率，仍是值得关注的投资机会。  

微软股票刚刚经历了两年来最糟糕的一天。现在是买入的好时机吗？