<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.20%）最近结束了其 2024 财年的第四季度财报，市场对此反应平淡。该股票在财报发布前下跌了几个百分点，但这并不值得大惊小怪。毕竟，过去 12 个月该股票的回报率达到了 25%。对于一家市值高达 3.3 万亿美元的公司来说，这并不算差。</p>
<p>然而，苹果最大的投资者之一，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>，也发布了财报。由传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特管理的伯克希尔，持续削减其在苹果的持股；该持股的价值已从超过 1700 亿美元降至今天的 660 亿美元。</p>
<p>投资者必须自行做出决策。话虽如此，我理解这种情况。巴菲特无疑是华尔街最知名的人物，因此在考虑自己是否买入、卖出或持有该股票时，想要关注他公司的动向是很自然的。</p>
<p>现实是，伯克希尔出售苹果的原因可能与你无关。我将讨论伯克希尔的出售行为、苹果股票真正重要的因素，以及在市场迈向 2025 年之际，该股票是买入、卖出还是持有。</p>
<h2>巴菲特出售苹果的理由，以及这对你可能没有影响的原因</h2>
<p>是的，伯克希尔哈撒韦已经出售了超过一半的苹果股票。但这并不意味着巴菲特的公司不再相信苹果的潜力。今年早些时候，巴菲特曾多次赞扬苹果，并称其业务比 <strong>美国运通</strong> 和 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 更好，而这两者是伯克希尔最长期的投资。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，自巴菲特首次购买苹果以来，苹果股票的价格显著上涨——公司的市盈率（P/E）在过去八年中稳步上升：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>这可能影响了巴菲特削减伯克希尔苹果持股的时机，但在我看来，这本来就是必然的。今年早些时候，苹果的持股一度占伯克希尔市值的近 20%。伯克希尔基本上是一个价值万亿美元的私人企业和公共公司股份的投资组合。将如此多的价值集中在单一资产上是有风险的。</p>
<p>在如此高的利润下兑现部分筹码对巴菲特来说是明智的。然而，我认为这对于个人决定是否拥有苹果股票来说并不值得过于关注。</p>
<h2>解释苹果更高的估值</h2>
<p>是的，苹果现在比十年前更昂贵。然而，苹果的业务发生了变化。其 iOS 设备（主要是 iPhone）创造了一个庞大的客户基础，向其销售高利润的订阅服务。这些服务收入在 2024 年占总销售额的约 24.5%，高于 2023 年的 22.2%。</p>
<p>销售更多服务并外包其供应链使苹果成为一家更高效的企业，投资资本回报率（ROIC）大幅提高。这有助于解释为什么苹果的估值如此上升……今天的苹果是一家从根本上更好的企业。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 投资资本回报率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>在这种情况下，我认为苹果股票不会像以前那样以 12 倍的市盈率交易，除非整体市场出现崩溃。</p>
<h2>苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</h2>
<p>但这并不意味着该股票今天是个便宜货。更高效的苹果可以用更少的资本赚取更多的钱，但最终，股票的估值必须与所获得的盈利增长相匹配。</p>
<p>苹果希望通过在 iOS 18 中实施的一套人工智能（AI）功能来推动设备升级。苹果在第四季度实现了 6% 的同比收入增长，但对下个季度的增长预期为低到中个位数。公平地说，现在还为时已早。苹果仅在几周前发布了苹果智能，因此需要时间来影响公司的数据。</p>
<p>苹果在 2024 年每股收益为 6.08 美元，分析师目前预计 2025 财年（截至 2025 年 9 月）的每股收益将增长 21% 至 7.40 美元，下一年再增长 11% 至 8.25 美元。在未来三到五年内，分析师预计苹果的收益将每年增长约 12%。苹果是一家如此优秀的企业，以至于其估值高于大多数其他公司，但在 PEG 比率约为 3 的情况下，进一步加码该股票是困难的。换句话说，苹果的估值对于其预期的收益增长来说有些过高。</p>
<p>苹果是一家太优秀的企业，不应该出售，但投资者可能应该等到其估值降温或苹果的增长前景更加确定时再考虑买入。今天将该股票视为持有。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票在其 2024 财年第四季度财报发布后略有下滑，尽管过去一年回报率达 25%。伯克希尔·哈撒韦已减少其在苹果的持股，但这并不一定反映出对公司的信心不足。由于其盈利的订阅服务，苹果的估值有所上升，但分析师建议目前股票被高估，PEG 比率约为 3。因此，尽管苹果仍然是一家强劲的企业，但建议持有该股票，直到其估值变得更具吸引力</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.20%) recently closed out its fiscal year 2024 with fourth-quarter earnings, and the market responded with a shrug. The stock is down a few percentage points from before its earnings report, but it's nothing to sound the alarm about. After all, the stock has returned 25% over the past 12 months. That's not bad for a stock carrying a whopping $3.3 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.20%）最近结束了其 2024 财年的第四季度财报，市场对此反应平淡。该股票在财报发布前下跌了几个百分点，但这并不值得大惊小怪。毕竟，过去 12 个月该股票的回报率达到了 25%。对于一家市值高达 3.3 万亿美元的公司来说，这并不算差。</p>
</div><p>However, one of Apple's largest investors, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>, reported earnings, too. Berkshire, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, keeps trimming its stake in Apple; that stake has fallen in value from over $170 billion to just $66 billion today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，苹果最大的投资者之一，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>，也发布了财报。由传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特管理的伯克希尔，持续削减其在苹果的持股；该持股的价值已从超过 1700 亿美元降至今天的 660 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Investors must make their own decisions. That said, I get it. Buffett is arguably Wall Street's biggest name, so it's tempting to think about the moves his company is making when weighing buying, selling, or holding the stock for yourself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者必须自行做出决策。话虽如此，我理解这种情况。巴菲特无疑是华尔街最知名的人物，因此在考虑自己是否买入、卖出或持有该股票时，想要关注他公司的动向是很自然的。</p>
</div><p>The reality is that Berkshire's reasons for selling Apple likely have nothing to do with you. I'll discuss Berkshire's selling, what actually matters for Apple stock, and whether the stock is a buy, sell, or hold as the market barrels toward 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现实是，伯克希尔出售苹果的原因可能与你无关。我将讨论伯克希尔的出售行为、苹果股票真正重要的因素，以及在市场迈向 2025 年之际，该股票是买入、卖出还是持有。</p>
</div><h2>Selling Apple makes sense for Buffett, and why it probably doesn't matter to you</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特出售苹果的理由，以及这对你可能没有影响的原因</h2>
</div><p>Yes, Berkshire Hathaway has sold over half its Apple stock. But that doesn't mean Buffett's company no longer believes in Apple's potential. Buffett has repeatedly praised Apple and called it a better business than <strong>American Express</strong> and <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, two of Berkshire's longest-standing investments, earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，伯克希尔哈撒韦已经出售了超过一半的苹果股票。但这并不意味着巴菲特的公司不再相信苹果的潜力。今年早些时候，巴菲特曾多次赞扬苹果，并称其业务比 <strong>美国运通</strong> 和 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 更好，而这两者是伯克希尔最长期的投资。</p>
</div><p>It should be noted that Apple stock has become significantly more expensive since Buffett first bought it -- the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has steadily increased over the past eight years:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，自巴菲特首次购买苹果以来，苹果股票的价格显著上涨——公司的市盈率（P/E）在过去八年中稳步上升：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That could have impacted Buffett's timing in trimming Berkshire's Apple stake, but in my view, it was bound to happen anyway. The Apple stake grew to nearly 20% of Berkshire's market cap earlier this year. Berkshire is basically a trillion-dollar portfolio of private businesses and stakes in public companies. Having so much value tied up in a single asset is risky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能影响了巴菲特削减伯克希尔苹果持股的时机，但在我看来，这本来就是必然的。今年早些时候，苹果的持股一度占伯克希尔市值的近 20%。伯克希尔基本上是一个价值万亿美元的私人企业和公共公司股份的投资组合。将如此多的价值集中在单一资产上是有风险的。</p>
</div><p>Cashing in some of those chips at such a high profit was prudent for Buffett. However, I don't think it's worth weighing too heavily for individuals deciding whether or not to own Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此高的利润下兑现部分筹码对巴菲特来说是明智的。然而，我认为这对于个人决定是否拥有苹果股票来说并不值得过于关注。</p>
</div><h2>Explaining Apple's higher valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>解释苹果更高的估值</h2>
</div><p>Yes, Apple is more expensive now than a decade ago. However, Apple's business has changed. Its iOS devices (primarily the iPhone) have created a massive customer base to which it sells highly profitable subscription services. Those service revenues represented about 24.5% of total sales in 2024, up from 22.2% in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，苹果现在比十年前更昂贵。然而，苹果的业务发生了变化。其 iOS 设备（主要是 iPhone）创造了一个庞大的客户基础，向其销售高利润的订阅服务。这些服务收入在 2024 年占总销售额的约 24.5%，高于 2023 年的 22.2%。</p>
</div><p>Selling more services and outsourcing its supply chain has made Apple a more efficient business with a far higher return on invested capital (ROIC). This helps explain why Apple's valuation has risen so much ... it's a fundamentally better business today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>销售更多服务并外包其供应链使苹果成为一家更高效的企业，投资资本回报率（ROIC）大幅提高。这有助于解释为什么苹果的估值如此上升……今天的苹果是一家从根本上更好的企业。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Return on Invested Capital data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 投资资本回报率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>In this light, I don't think Apple stock will trade at 12 times earnings as it once did, barring some collapse in the broader markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，我认为苹果股票不会像以前那样以 12 倍的市盈率交易，除非整体市场出现崩溃。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple a buy, sell, or hold?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</h2>
</div><p>But that doesn't mean the stock is a bargain today. A more efficient Apple can make more money with less capital, but ultimately, the stock's valuation must make sense for the earnings growth you get.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这并不意味着该股票今天是个便宜货。更高效的苹果可以用更少的资本赚取更多的钱，但最终，股票的估值必须与所获得的盈利增长相匹配。</p>
</div><p>Apple hopes that Apple Intelligence, a set of artificial intelligence (AI) features implemented in iOS 18, will boost device upgrades. Apple posted 6% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 but guided for low- to mid-single-digit growth next quarter. To be fair, it's still early. Apple only released Apple Intelligence a couple of weeks ago, so it will take time to impact the company's numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果希望通过在 iOS 18 中实施的一套人工智能（AI）功能来推动设备升级。苹果在第四季度实现了 6% 的同比收入增长，但对下个季度的增长预期为低到中个位数。公平地说，现在还为时已早。苹果仅在几周前发布了苹果智能，因此需要时间来影响公司的数据。</p>
</div><p>Apple earned $6.08 per share in 2024, and analysts currently project that earnings per share will grow 21% to $7.40 in fiscal year 2025 (ending September 2025) and another 11% to $8.25 the following year. Over the next three to five years, analysts estimate Apple will grow earnings by about 12% annually. Apple is such a good business that it earns a premium to most others, but it's hard to lean further into the stock at a PEG ratio of about 3. In other words, Apple's valuation is a little too lofty for its expected earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在 2024 年每股收益为 6.08 美元，分析师目前预计 2025 财年（截至 2025 年 9 月）的每股收益将增长 21% 至 7.40 美元，下一年再增长 11% 至 8.25 美元。在未来三到五年内，分析师预计苹果的收益将每年增长约 12%。苹果是一家如此优秀的企业，以至于其估值高于大多数其他公司，但在 PEG 比率约为 3 的情况下，进一步加码该股票是困难的。换句话说，苹果的估值对于其预期的收益增长来说有些过高。</p>
</div><p>Apple is too good a business to sell, but investors should probably wait to buy until its valuation cools off or there is more certainty in Apple's growth prospects. Consider the stock a hold today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果是一家太优秀的企业，不应该出售，但投资者可能应该等到其估值降温或苹果的增长前景更加确定时再考虑买入。今天将该股票视为持有。</p>
</div>

Is Apple Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

- 苹果公司在 2024 财年第四季度盈利后，股价小幅下跌。  
- 伯克希尔哈撒韦减持苹果股份，尽管仍看好其潜力。  
- 分析师预计苹果未来三年年均盈利增长约 12%，建议持有该股。

2025 年苹果股票是应该买入、卖出还是持有？