<p>电动汽车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 14.75%) 和电动飞机制造商 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR -1.23%) 都有望受益于全球将电动汽车作为可持续替代品，以取代那些对环境造成问题的耗油汽车和飞机。</p>
<p>这两只股票在生命周期的不同阶段。特斯拉被认为是电动汽车的先锋，在过去五年中，其股价上涨超过 1100%。目前市值超过 7920 亿美元。与此同时，Archer Aviation 于 2021 年上市，市值仅为 11.2 亿美元，远低于特斯拉。华尔街正在告诉投资者卖出一只股票并买入另一只，这可能会带来三倍的收益。</p>
<h2>卖出特斯拉：隐含下行空间为 18%</h2>
<p>关于特斯拉存在多方与空方的争论，多方对电动汽车的未来以及特斯拉维持和扩大市场份额的能力充满信心。空方则认为，考虑到特斯拉的前瞻性市盈率超过 100 倍，该股票被高估。</p>
<p>华尔街的看法似乎也存在分歧。根据 TipRanks 的数据，在过去三个月中，35 位华尔街分析师对特斯拉发布了报告/评级。11 位分析师建议买入该股票，16 位建议持有，8 位建议卖出。这些经纪人之间的共识目标价约为 208 美元，暗示当前价格水平有近 18% 的下行空间。</p>
<p>特斯拉有很多优势。它仍然拥有美国电动汽车市场的大部分份额，公司的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克声称它是唯一一家盈利的电动汽车公司。该公司最近公布了第三季度财报，股价上涨 22%，创下十多年来的最佳交易日。在马斯克估计到 2025 年车辆增长可能跃升 20% 至 30% 后，股价迅速上涨，超出了分析师的预期。</p>
<p>然而，空方可能会争辩说，考虑到特斯拉近年来失去了市场份额，以及电动汽车在美国汽车销售中所占比例在最近几个季度保持稳定或下降，该股票并不值得如此高的估值。</p>
<p>就我个人而言，我保持观望。这种估值水平下买入股票不是我的风格，尤其是当如此多的因素依赖于对整体市场增长的假设时。不过，我确实认为电动汽车的销售会越来越受欢迎，并在国家努力应对气候挑战时变得更加必要。因此，从长远来看，我可以看到特斯拉的交易价格高于今天的水平。然而，我更希望在更好的估值下买入。</p>
<h2>Archer Aviation：强烈买入，潜力三倍</h2>
<p>Archer Aviation 正在做一些非常酷的事情，设计可以用于日常出行的电动飞机。其 Midnight 空中出租车可以在连续的 20 英里行程中运输最多四名乘客和一名飞行员。Midnight 在今年早些时候达成了一个关键的监管里程碑，可能在明年就能在纽约市和芝加哥起飞。</p>
<p>覆盖 Archer 的分析师不如特斯拉多，但根据 TipRanks 的五位分析师中，有四位对该股票给予买入评级，一位给予持有评级，目标价共识为 9.70 美元。这意味着股价可能会三倍上涨，潜在上涨约为 211%。</p>
<p>Archer 的一大优势是其在联邦航空管理局（FAA）方面的进展。FAA 在 5 月份授予该公司的 Midnight Model M001 最终适航标准，使其成为美国第二个获得该认证的空中出租车。这使得 Archer 能够继续进行飞行测试。在 9 月份，该公司宣布已提前完成 400 次测试飞行。随后，FAA 发布了针对先进移动航空器的最终规则，分析师对此对空中出租车公司的前景持积极态度。</p>
<p>在监管方面领先潜在竞争对手可能为 Archer 提供显著的先发优势，甚至形成护城河。Archer 本质上可能处于特斯拉开始销售电动汽车时的状态，并可能迅速抢占市场份额。当然，飞行的复杂性远高于道路，带来了额外的不确定性，因为这在之前并没有先例。途中可能会遇到挫折，公司也尚未实现盈利，因此你实际上是在投资一家后期阶段的初创公司。尽管如此，我认为 Archer 具有良好的风险回报前景，具有一定风险承受能力的投资者当然可以考虑买入该股票。</p>

ACHR

特斯拉

<p>华尔街分析师建议投资者卖出特斯拉股票，认为其被高估，隐含下行空间为 18%；同时建议买入 Archer Aviation 股票，潜在上涨空间为 211%。特斯拉经历了显著增长，但面临估值和市场份额的担忧。相比之下，Archer Aviation 在电动飞机领域取得了进展，已完成关键监管里程碑和测试飞行，为未来的快速增长奠定了基础</p>

<p>Both the electric carmaker <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 14.75%) and the electric aircraft maker <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR -1.23%) are poised to benefit as the world adopts electric vehicles as a sustainable alternative to the fuel-guzzling cars and planes that have contributed to environmental issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动汽车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 14.75%) 和电动飞机制造商 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR -1.23%) 都有望受益于全球将电动汽车作为可持续替代品，以取代那些对环境造成问题的耗油汽车和飞机。</p>
</div><p>Both stocks are in very different phases in their lifecycles. Tesla is known as the pioneer of electric vehicles and has seen its stock surge more than 1,100% over the last five years. It currently has a market cap of more than $792 billion. Meanwhile, Archer Aviation only went public in 2021 and has a much lower market cap than Tesla at $1.12 billion. Wall Street is telling investors to sell one and buy the other, which could be a triple-bagger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两只股票在生命周期的不同阶段。特斯拉被认为是电动汽车的先锋，在过去五年中，其股价上涨超过 1100%。目前市值超过 7920 亿美元。与此同时，Archer Aviation 于 2021 年上市，市值仅为 11.2 亿美元，远低于特斯拉。华尔街正在告诉投资者卖出一只股票并买入另一只，这可能会带来三倍的收益。</p>
</div><h2>Sell Tesla: Implied downside of 18%</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>卖出特斯拉：隐含下行空间为 18%</h2>
</div><p>There is a bull-bear argument for Tesla, with the bulls confident in the future of electric vehicles and Tesla's ability to maintain and grow market share. The bears argue that the stock is overvalued at more than 100 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于特斯拉存在多方与空方的争论，多方对电动汽车的未来以及特斯拉维持和扩大市场份额的能力充满信心。空方则认为，考虑到特斯拉的前瞻性市盈率超过 100 倍，该股票被高估。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street seems split as well. Over the last three months, 35 Wall Street analysts have issued reports/ratings for Tesla, according to TipRanks. Eleven analysts say buy the stock, 16 say hold, and eight say sell. The consensus price target among these brokers is about $208, suggesting nearly 18% downside from current price levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的看法似乎也存在分歧。根据 TipRanks 的数据，在过去三个月中，35 位华尔街分析师对特斯拉发布了报告/评级。11 位分析师建议买入该股票，16 位建议持有，8 位建议卖出。这些经纪人之间的共识目标价约为 208 美元，暗示当前价格水平有近 18% 的下行空间。</p>
</div><p>Tesla has a lot going for it. It still owns the bulk of the electric vehicle market in the U.S., and the company's CEO Elon Musk claims it's the only profitable EV company. The company recently reported third-quarter earnings and the stock jumped 22%, enjoying its best day of trading in more than a decade. The stock kicked into high gear after Musk estimated that vehicle growth could jump 20% to 30% in 2025, ahead of what analysts had been modeling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉有很多优势。它仍然拥有美国电动汽车市场的大部分份额，公司的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克声称它是唯一一家盈利的电动汽车公司。该公司最近公布了第三季度财报，股价上涨 22%，创下十多年来的最佳交易日。在马斯克估计到 2025 年车辆增长可能跃升 20% 至 30% 后，股价迅速上涨，超出了分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>The bears, however, might argue the stock does not deserve such a rich valuation given that Tesla has lost market share in recent years and that the share of total EVs as a percentage of U.S. car sales has been stable to down in recent quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，空方可能会争辩说，考虑到特斯拉近年来失去了市场份额，以及电动汽车在美国汽车销售中所占比例在最近几个季度保持稳定或下降，该股票并不值得如此高的估值。</p>
</div><p>Personally, I'm on the sidelines. It's not my style to buy stocks at this kind of valuation, especially when so much depends on assumptions about the overall market growth. Still, I do think EV sales will gain in popularity and become more of a necessity as the country tries to address the climate challenges ahead. So long term I could see Tesla trading higher than it is today. However, I would prefer to buy at a better valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就我个人而言，我保持观望。这种估值水平下买入股票不是我的风格，尤其是当如此多的因素依赖于对整体市场增长的假设时。不过，我确实认为电动汽车的销售会越来越受欢迎，并在国家努力应对气候挑战时变得更加必要。因此，从长远来看，我可以看到特斯拉的交易价格高于今天的水平。然而，我更希望在更好的估值下买入。</p>
</div><h2>Archer Aviation: Strong buy with 3X potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Archer Aviation：强烈买入，潜力三倍</h2>
</div><p>Archer Aviation is doing some pretty cool stuff, designing electric aircraft that can be used in daily travel. Its Midnight air taxis can transport up to four passengers and a pilot on consecutive 20-mile trips. The Midnight achieved a key regulatory milestone earlier this year and could take flight in New York City and Chicago as soon as next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Archer Aviation 正在做一些非常酷的事情，设计可以用于日常出行的电动飞机。其 Midnight 空中出租车可以在连续的 20 英里行程中运输最多四名乘客和一名飞行员。Midnight 在今年早些时候达成了一个关键的监管里程碑，可能在明年就能在纽约市和芝加哥起飞。</p>
</div><p>Not as many analysts cover Archer as Tesla, but of the five cited by TipRanks, four rate the stock a buy and one a hold with a consensus price target of $9.70. This implies the stock price could triple with an upside of roughly 211%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>覆盖 Archer 的分析师不如特斯拉多，但根据 TipRanks 的五位分析师中，有四位对该股票给予买入评级，一位给予持有评级，目标价共识为 9.70 美元。这意味着股价可能会三倍上涨，潜在上涨约为 211%。</p>
</div><p>One big thing Archer has going for it is its progress with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The FAA granted the company's Midnight Model M001 final airworthiness criteria in May, making it only the second air taxi in the U.S. to achieve that designation. This allowed Archer to move ahead with flight tests. In September, the company announced it had completed its 400 test flights well ahead of schedule. Then the FAA issued its final rule for advanced mobility aircraft, which analysts viewed positively for air taxi companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Archer 的一大优势是其在联邦航空管理局（FAA）方面的进展。FAA 在 5 月份授予该公司的 Midnight Model M001 最终适航标准，使其成为美国第二个获得该认证的空中出租车。这使得 Archer 能够继续进行飞行测试。在 9 月份，该公司宣布已提前完成 400 次测试飞行。随后，FAA 发布了针对先进移动航空器的最终规则，分析师对此对空中出租车公司的前景持积极态度。</p>
</div><p>Being this far ahead of potential competitors on the regulatory front could give Archer a significant head start and even constitute a moat. Archer could essentially be where Tesla was when it started selling electric vehicles and could sap up market share quickly. Of course, navigating the skies is a little more complex than the roads and brings added uncertainty because it hasn't been done before. There might be setbacks along the way and the company also hasn't reached profitability, so you are effectively investing in a later-stage start-up. That said, I think Archer has a good risk-reward proposition and investors with some risk tolerance can certainly buy the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在监管方面领先潜在竞争对手可能为 Archer 提供显著的先发优势，甚至形成护城河。Archer 本质上可能处于特斯拉开始销售电动汽车时的状态，并可能迅速抢占市场份额。当然，飞行的复杂性远高于道路，带来了额外的不确定性，因为这在之前并没有先例。途中可能会遇到挫折，公司也尚未实现盈利，因此你实际上是在投资一家后期阶段的初创公司。尽管如此，我认为 Archer 具有良好的风险回报前景，具有一定风险承受能力的投资者当然可以考虑买入该股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock vs. Archer Aviation Stock: Wall Street Says One is Overvalued and Buy the Other Because It Can 3X

- 特斯拉和阿彻航空在电动车和电动飞机市场中受益。  
- 特斯拉市值超过千亿美元，股价五年涨幅超 1100%。  
- 阿彻航空预计股价有 211% 上涨潜力，已完成 400 次测试飞行。  

特斯拉股票与 Archer Aviation 股票：华尔街表示其中一个被高估，另一个值得买入，因为它有可能增长三倍