<p>过去几年对耐心的 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.33%) 股东来说是非常丰厚的。自 2022 年初因疫情而触底以来，股价上涨超过 300%，过去十年更是上涨了 700%。这主要归功于 iPhone 和苹果的应用商店。</p>
<p>问题是，自 2023 年初以来，收入并没有太大变化。如果不是由于其服务部门的持续增长，收入甚至可能会下滑。尽管如此，股价仍在上涨，主要是因为市场预期苹果在人工智能领域的探索将会带来回报。</p>
<p>也许会如此。然而，考虑到公司面临的各种风险和挑战，或许在此时避开价格过高的苹果股票，转而投资于更具潜力的项目会更明智。电子商务技术和服务提供商 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 2.95%) 恰好符合这一要求。</p>
<h2>为什么不选择苹果？</h2>
<p>不要误解。苹果远非注定要失败。至少，制造全球最受欢迎的智能手机是有实力的。公司的服务部门仍在增长，进一步增强了看涨的理由。</p>
<p>然而，有一个不可否认的现实是，任何股东都无法忽视。也就是说，苹果的 iPhone 业务在单位销售和收入方面都处于停滞状态。</p>
<p>iPhone 的销售在一年中的平均时间内有所波动。每当更新型号在九月推出时，需求就会增加，随后在第四季度因节日赠礼和完整的财务季度购买而大幅飙升。实际上，iPhone 业务如此不稳定，以至于很难确定这一业务是否真的在增长。下面的图表通过绘制 iPhone 的四个季度平均收入和单位销售情况来帮助说明这一点。正如图像所示，自 2022 年初以来，苹果的智能手机业务确实一直处于停滞状态。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLXVuaXQtZGVsaXZlcmllcy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLXVuaXQtZGVsaXZlcmllcy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：苹果公司和 IDC。图表由作者制作。收入以百万计。单位交付量以百万计。</p>
<p>这并不一定是灾难性的。再说一次，这就是苹果。它是全球最大的公司之一，绝非无缘无故。</p>
<p>然而，考虑到 iPhone 仍占苹果收入的约一半，这种停滞是不可忽视的。在某个时刻，苹果 <em>将</em> 需要开始推动一些可衡量和有意义的收入增长。</p>
<p>新款具备人工智能功能的 iPhone 可能会有所帮助，但并不能保证它们会产生重大看涨影响。毕竟，类似于苹果智能助手的在线工具也可供其他品牌的智能手机用户使用，即使这些人工智能工作并不是直接在这些设备上进行的。</p>
<h2>为什么选择 Shopify？</h2>
<p>那么，Shopify 有什么是苹果没有的呢？真正的增长——现在，以及可预见的未来。</p>
<p>如果你不熟悉，Shopify 帮助商家建立自己的电子商务网站。从在线购物车到支付处理，再到互联网营销和客户管理工具，Shopify 的解决方案套件意味着它几乎是任何类型业务的即用型选择。</p>
<p>毫无疑问，企业正在使用这些工具。该公司的技术在截至 6 月的三个月内促进了 672 亿美元的商品和服务销售，同比增长 22%。事实上，该公司已经以这样的速度增长了好几年，并预计在未来几年内将继续保持这种增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy1wYXN0LXByb2plY3RlZC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy1wYXN0LXByb2plY3RlZC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者制作。</p>
<p>然而，这种看涨的前景可能仍然低估了未来的增长潜力以及这种增长的持久性。</p>
<p>简单来说，电子商务行业不仅在增长。它也在演变。虽然像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>eBay</strong> 这样的在线商城最初的目的达到了，但许多商家和制造商现在更好地通过直接与客户建立关系来服务自己，而不是依赖可能会破坏或控制这些关系的在线中介。</p>
<p>然而，这只是看涨论点的一半。另一半是整个电子商务行业等待的增长量。根据最新的数据，人口普查局报告称，美国零售销售中只有约 16%——Shopify 大部分业务所在的领域——是在线完成的。其余的 84% 仍在实体店中进行，留待争夺。关键在于向这些购物者做出正确的吸引，促使他们从线下转向线上。</p>
<p>为此，市场研究机构 Precedence Research 认为，全球电子商务行业预计将在 2034 年前以每年接近 15% 的平均速度增长，这一增长主要由那些通过建立自己的在线存在而获得最大收益的成熟直销品牌推动。</p>
<p>关键在于：与刚刚创下新高的苹果股票不同，Shopify 的股票仍远低于其 2021 年底的峰值，尽管自 2022 年低点以来大幅上涨。</p>
<h2>如果没有其他选择，务实一点</h2>
<p>这种情况不会一直如此。总会有一天，苹果将再次成为必买的股票，就像总会有一天，Shopify 的股票因其潜在回报而面临过多风险。</p>
<p>但现在不是时候。现在——由于近期但没有依据的看涨情绪——苹果可以说是市场上最被高估的股票之一，而 Shopify 则是最被低估的名字之一。趁此机会好好利用，也许更重要的是，不要因为它们是最受欢迎的股票就坚持拥有它们。没有什么是永恒的，无论是好是坏。</p>

SHOP

苹果

<p>这篇文章讨论了苹果（AAPL）股票的表现，尽管在过去几年中取得了显著的增长，但目前其 iPhone 销售和收入正面临停滞。文章建议投资者可以考虑 Shopify（SHOP），因为它在电子商务领域提供了真正的增长潜力。Shopify 正在快速增长，为企业促进了可观的销售，并受益于持续向在线零售的转变。预计电子商务行业将继续扩张，为 Shopify 提供机会，而这些机会可能是苹果目前无法提供的</p>

<p>The past few years have been very rewarding ones for patient <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.33%) shareholders. The stock's up more than 300% since its early 2022 pandemic-prompted low, and higher to the tune of 700% for the past decade. Credit the iPhone and Apple's app store for most of this gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年对耐心的 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.33%) 股东来说是非常丰厚的。自 2022 年初因疫情而触底以来，股价上涨超过 300%，过去十年更是上涨了 700%。这主要归功于 iPhone 和苹果的应用商店。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, revenue hasn't really budged much since early 2023. And had it not been for the ongoing growth of its services arm, it might have even slumped. The stock's been climbing anyway, largely on expectations that Apple's foray into the artificial intelligence arena will pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题是，自 2023 年初以来，收入并没有太大变化。如果不是由于其服务部门的持续增长，收入甚至可能会下滑。尽管如此，股价仍在上涨，主要是因为市场预期苹果在人工智能领域的探索将会带来回报。</p>
</div><p>Maybe it will. Given all the company's risks and challenges, however, perhaps it would be wiser to steer clear of frothily priced Apple shares at this time and instead dive into something with more promising upside. E-commerce technology and service provider <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 2.95%) fits the bill nicely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许会如此。然而，考虑到公司面临的各种风险和挑战，或许在此时避开价格过高的苹果股票，转而投资于更具潜力的项目会更明智。电子商务技术和服务提供商 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 2.95%) 恰好符合这一要求。</p>
</div><h2>Why not Apple?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么不选择苹果？</h2>
</div><p>Don't misunderstand. Apple is far from being doomed. At the very least, there's power in making the world's most popular smartphone. The company's still-growing services arm further bolsters the bullish case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要误解。苹果远非注定要失败。至少，制造全球最受欢迎的智能手机是有实力的。公司的服务部门仍在增长，进一步增强了看涨的理由。</p>
</div><p>There's an undeniable reality that no shareholder can afford to ignore, however. That is, Apple's iPhone business is stagnant as measured by unit sales as well as by revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一个不可否认的现实是，任何股东都无法忽视。也就是说，苹果的 iPhone 业务在单位销售和收入方面都处于停滞状态。</p>
</div><p>Sales of the iPhone vary throughout the average year. Demand perks up when updated models are launched in September, and then outright soars in the fourth calendar quarter thanks to holiday gift-giving and a full fiscal quarter's worth of buying. Its iPhone business is so erratic, in fact, that it's difficult to determine whether or not this business is actually growing. The graphic below helps in this regard, by virtue of plotting the iPhone's four-quarter average revenue and unit sales. As the image makes clear, Apple's smartphone business has indeed been stagnant since early 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 的销售在一年中的平均时间内有所波动。每当更新型号在九月推出时，需求就会增加，随后在第四季度因节日赠礼和完整的财务季度购买而大幅飙升。实际上，iPhone 业务如此不稳定，以至于很难确定这一业务是否真的在增长。下面的图表通过绘制 iPhone 的四个季度平均收入和单位销售情况来帮助说明这一点。正如图像所示，自 2022 年初以来，苹果的智能手机业务确实一直处于停滞状态。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLXVuaXQtZGVsaXZlcmllcy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796574%2F110424-iphone-revenue-unit-deliveries.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Apple Inc. and IDC. Chart by author. Revenue is in millions. Unit deliveries are in millions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：苹果公司和 IDC。图表由作者制作。收入以百万计。单位交付量以百万计。</p>
</div><p>It's not necessarily disastrous. Again, this is Apple. It's one of the world's very biggest companies for good reason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不一定是灾难性的。再说一次，这就是苹果。它是全球最大的公司之一，绝非无缘无故。</p>
</div><p>Given that the iPhone still accounts for around half of Apple's revenue, though, this stagnation is nothing to ignore. At some point, Apple <em>will</em> need to start driving some measurable and meaningful top-line growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考虑到 iPhone 仍占苹果收入的约一半，这种停滞是不可忽视的。在某个时刻，苹果 <em>将</em> 需要开始推动一些可衡量和有意义的收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Newer AI-capable iPhones could help, but there's no guarantee they will make a major bullish dent. After all, online tools comparable to Apple Intelligence are available to users of other brands of smartphones, even if the artificial intelligence work being done isn't handled directly from these other devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新款具备人工智能功能的 iPhone 可能会有所帮助，但并不能保证它们会产生重大看涨影响。毕竟，类似于苹果智能助手的在线工具也可供其他品牌的智能手机用户使用，即使这些人工智能工作并不是直接在这些设备上进行的。</p>
</div><h2>Why Shopify?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么选择 Shopify？</h2>
</div><p>So what does Shopify have that Apple doesn't? Real growth -- right now, and for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，Shopify 有什么是苹果没有的呢？真正的增长——现在，以及可预见的未来。</p>
</div><p>If you're not familiar with it, Shopify helps merchants build their own e-commerce websites. From online shopping carts to payment processing to internet marketing to customer management tools, Shopify's suite of solutions means it's a turn-key option for almost any kind of business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你不熟悉，Shopify 帮助商家建立自己的电子商务网站。从在线购物车到支付处理，再到互联网营销和客户管理工具，Shopify 的解决方案套件意味着它几乎是任何类型业务的即用型选择。</p>
</div><p>Businesses are using these tools, to be sure. The company's tech facilitated the sale of $67.2 billion worth of goods and services during the three-month stretch ending in June, up 22% year over year. Indeed, the company's been growing at such a pace for several years now, and is expected to continue doing so for at least the next several more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，企业正在使用这些工具。该公司的技术在截至 6 月的三个月内促进了 672 亿美元的商品和服务销售，同比增长 22%。事实上，该公司已经以这样的速度增长了好几年，并预计在未来几年内将继续保持这种增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy1wYXN0LXByb2plY3RlZC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796574%2F110424-shopify-results-past-projected.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者制作。</p>
</div><p>This bullish outlook, however, may still ultimately understate what's in store in terms of growth, as well as this growth's longevity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种看涨的前景可能仍然低估了未来的增长潜力以及这种增长的持久性。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, the e-commerce industry isn't just growing. It's also evolving. While online malls like <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>eBay</strong> served their initial purpose well enough, many merchants and manufacturers are now better served by doing their own thing, directly cultivating relationships with customers instead of using online middlemen that could wreck or commandeer these relationships in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，电子商务行业不仅在增长。它也在演变。虽然像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>eBay</strong> 这样的在线商城最初的目的达到了，但许多商家和制造商现在更好地通过直接与客户建立关系来服务自己，而不是依赖可能会破坏或控制这些关系的在线中介。</p>
</div><p>That's only half the bullish argument, however. The other half is how much growth awaits the entirety of the e-commerce industry. As of its latest look, the Census Bureau reports that only about 16% of the United States' retail sales -- where Shopify does most of its business -- are done online. The other 84% is still done in-store, leaving it up for grabs. The key is simply making the right appeal to these shoppers, shifting them from an offline to an online venue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这只是看涨论点的一半。另一半是整个电子商务行业等待的增长量。根据最新的数据，人口普查局报告称，美国零售销售中只有约 16%——Shopify 大部分业务所在的领域——是在线完成的。其余的 84% 仍在实体店中进行，留待争夺。关键在于向这些购物者做出正确的吸引，促使他们从线下转向线上。</p>
</div><p>To this end, market research outfit Precedence Research believes the worldwide e-commerce industry is poised to grow at an average annual pace of just under 15% through 2034, with that growth led by the established direct-to-consumer brands that have the most to gain by building their own online presence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为此，市场研究机构 Precedence Research 认为，全球电子商务行业预计将在 2034 年前以每年接近 15% 的平均速度增长，这一增长主要由那些通过建立自己的在线存在而获得最大收益的成熟直销品牌推动。</p>
</div><p>The kicker: Unlike Apple's stock, which is just coming off yet another record high, Shopify shares are still well below their late-2021 peak, despite their big gain from 2022's low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键在于：与刚刚创下新高的苹果股票不同，Shopify 的股票仍远低于其 2021 年底的峰值，尽管自 2022 年低点以来大幅上涨。</p>
</div><h2>If nothing else, be pragmatic</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果没有其他选择，务实一点</h2>
</div><p>This won't always be the case. There will come a time when Apple is a must-own stock again, just as there will come a time when Shopify shares pose too much risk for their prospective reward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况不会一直如此。总会有一天，苹果将再次成为必买的股票，就像总会有一天，Shopify 的股票因其潜在回报而面临过多风险。</p>
</div><p>That time isn't now, though. Right now -- thanks to recent but unsupported bullishness -- Apple is arguably one of the market's most overvalued tickers, while Shopify is one of its most underestimated names. Take advantage of this opportunity while you can, and perhaps more importantly, don't insist on owning the world's most popular stocks just because they're popular. Nothing lasts forever, for better and worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在不是时候。现在——由于近期但没有依据的看涨情绪——苹果可以说是市场上最被高估的股票之一，而 Shopify 则是最被低估的名字之一。趁此机会好好利用，也许更重要的是，不要因为它们是最受欢迎的股票就坚持拥有它们。没有什么是永恒的，无论是好是坏。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Apple? Why You Might Want to Buy This Unstoppable Growth Stock Instead.

- 苹果公司股价自 2022 年以来上涨超过 300%，但收入增长停滞。  
- 由于 iPhone 销售疲软，投资者应关注 Shopify 的持续增长潜力。  
- 电子商务行业预计将以每年近 15% 的速度增长，市场机会巨大。  

你应该忘记苹果吗？为什么你可能会想要购买这只势不可挡的成长股