<p>亿万富翁斯坦·德鲁肯米勒（Stan Druckenmiller）称赞了过去几年 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的牛市。这位退休的对冲基金经理在人工智能（AI）上进行了重大投资，并为他的投资组合带来了丰厚的回报。现在，他购买了一家完全不同领域公司的股票：<strong>菲利普莫里斯国际</strong>（PM 0.11%）。这家全球市值最大的烟草公司现在占德鲁肯米勒投资组合的超过 3%，这还不包括他为进一步押注该公司成功而采取的期权头寸。</p>
<p>德鲁肯米勒在菲利普莫里斯国际股票中看到了什么？我认为是强劲的收入增长、股息收益和一个耐用但被误解的业务。以下是这位亿万富翁为何刚刚将这只优秀股票加入其投资组合的原因。</p>
<h2>健康尼古丁产品的巨大波动</h2>
<p>尽管菲利普莫里斯国际以其悠久的烟草品牌而闻名，但在过去 15 年中，它已经将业务从单一的香烟转向其他产品，此前它从菲利普莫里斯美国（现称 <strong>奥驰亚集团</strong>）分拆出来。上个季度，无烟产品占公司总收入的 38%，约为 37.6 亿美元。这是从不久前的零起点实现的惊人增长。</p>
<p>其两款最成功的产品是 IQOS 加热不燃设备和 Zyn 尼古丁袋。IQOS 是一种模仿香烟吸烟的更健康方式，类似于电子蒸汽设备，在欧洲和日本非常受欢迎。到 2024 年前九个月，IQOS 和其他加热不燃设备的出货量同比增长了 13.9%，达到了 1040 亿个单位。尽管这仍然远小于菲利普莫里斯的香烟销量（同期总计 4640 亿个单位），但其增长速度非常快。</p>
<p>Zyn 尼古丁袋的业务规模相较于 IQOS 较小，但公司的增长速度更快。上个季度，美国的出货量增长至 1.49 亿罐，而 2023 年同期为 1.05 亿罐。该品牌增长如此迅速，以至于菲利普莫里斯遇到了供应短缺。供应限制开始缓解，但仍然抑制了 Zyn 的真正增长潜力。这一潜力预计将在 2025 年和 2026 年实现，为菲利普莫里斯的无烟业务提供进一步的助力。</p>
<h2>定价能力和人口红利</h2>
<p>菲利普莫里斯的传统香烟业务并非无足轻重。与其他在人口停滞或下降国家有业务的香烟制造商不同，菲利普莫里斯国际在人口增长的国家运营，这帮助其出货量保持稳定，即使全球吸烟者的比例在下降。2024 年迄今（YTD），香烟销量相对平稳，增长为 0.5%，这比其烟草同行要好得多。</p>
<p>从长远来看，菲利普莫里斯的香烟销量应该会开始下降。然而，它仍然可以通过持续的提价来实现销售增长，这对出货量的影响不大。2022 年，公司将可燃产品的价格平均提高了 5%。在 2023 年，价格提高了 8.9%。截至 2024 年，价格平均提高了 8.8%。这导致可燃产品业务实现了强劲的收入增长和盈利能力。结合这一点，无烟业务和管理层预计今年的收入增长接近 10%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f5b02898cb41f72d2c63301564ecbaf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f5b02898cb41f72d2c63301564ecbaf.png"/></p>
<p>PM 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>你应该购买这只股票吗？</h2>
<p>在德鲁肯米勒购买菲利普莫里斯国际股票后，该股上涨了不少。在过去六个月中，该股的总回报为 37%，显著超过市场表现。</p>
<p>不过，这并不一定意味着你错过了机会。即使在这次上涨之后，菲利普莫里斯国际的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 20，远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均水平。其股息收益率约为 4%，为股东提供了健康的股息收入。随着公司不断提高香烟价格并为无烟业务增加客户，收入和每股收益（EPS）在长期内有明确的增长路径。</p>
<p>如果收入以 10% 的年增长率持续增长，且利润率强劲，我认为菲利普莫里斯国际的股票还有很大的上涨空间。再加上股息收入，斯坦·德鲁肯米勒在今年早些时候将该股票加入其投资组合也就不足为奇了。</p>

菲利普莫里斯

<p>亿万富翁斯坦·德鲁肯米勒已将菲利普莫里斯国际公司（PM）纳入其投资组合，目前占其投资组合的超过 3%。这一举动是在他成功投资人工智能之后进行的，同时菲利普莫里斯也在向无烟产品转型，上个季度无烟产品占其收入的 38%。尽管面临供应限制，该公司在 IQOS 和 Zyn 产品上实现了显著增长。凭借强大的定价策略和市场中不断增长的人口，菲利普莫里斯预计将继续实现收入增长，即使在过去六个月股价上涨了 37% 之后，仍然是一个具有吸引力的投资</p>

<p>Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller called the <strong>Nvidia</strong> bull run over the last few years. The retired hedge fund manager made a big bet on artificial intelligence (AI), and it paid off handsomely for his portfolio. Now, he has purchased shares of a company in an entirely different sector: <strong>Philip Morris International</strong>(PM 0.11%). The largest tobacco company by market cap in the world now makes up over 3% of Druckenmiller's portfolio, and that excludes a call option position he has taken to further bet on the company's success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亿万富翁斯坦·德鲁肯米勒（Stan Druckenmiller）称赞了过去几年 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的牛市。这位退休的对冲基金经理在人工智能（AI）上进行了重大投资，并为他的投资组合带来了丰厚的回报。现在，他购买了一家完全不同领域公司的股票：<strong>菲利普莫里斯国际</strong>（PM 0.11%）。这家全球市值最大的烟草公司现在占德鲁肯米勒投资组合的超过 3%，这还不包括他为进一步押注该公司成功而采取的期权头寸。</p>
</div><p>What does Druckenmiller see in Philip Morris International stock? I think it is strong revenue growth, dividend earnings, and a durable but misunderstood business. Here's why the billionaire has just added this magnificent stock to his portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德鲁肯米勒在菲利普莫里斯国际股票中看到了什么？我认为是强劲的收入增长、股息收益和一个耐用但被误解的业务。以下是这位亿万富翁为何刚刚将这只优秀股票加入其投资组合的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Big waves in healthier nicotine products</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>健康尼古丁产品的巨大波动</h2>
</div><p>Even though Philip Morris International is known as a storied tobacco brand, it has pivoted its business away from just cigarettes over the last 15 years after splitting off from Philip Morris USA (now known as <strong>Altria Group</strong>). Last quarter, smoke-free products made up 38% of total company revenue, or around $3.76 billion. That is incredible growth from a standing start not that long ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管菲利普莫里斯国际以其悠久的烟草品牌而闻名，但在过去 15 年中，它已经将业务从单一的香烟转向其他产品，此前它从菲利普莫里斯美国（现称 <strong>奥驰亚集团</strong>）分拆出来。上个季度，无烟产品占公司总收入的 38%，约为 37.6 亿美元。这是从不久前的零起点实现的惊人增长。</p>
</div><p>Its two most successful products are IQOS heat-not-burn devices and Zyn nicotine pouches. IQOS is a healthier way to mimic cigarette smoking, similar to electronic vapor devices, and is wildly popular in Europe and Japan. Shipment volumes for IQOS and other heat-not-burn devices have grown 13.9% year-over-year through the first nine months of 2024 to 104 billion units. It is still much smaller than Philip Morris's cigarette unit sales, which totaled 464 billion units over the same period, but it has gained ground quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其两款最成功的产品是 IQOS 加热不燃设备和 Zyn 尼古丁袋。IQOS 是一种模仿香烟吸烟的更健康方式，类似于电子蒸汽设备，在欧洲和日本非常受欢迎。到 2024 年前九个月，IQOS 和其他加热不燃设备的出货量同比增长了 13.9%，达到了 1040 亿个单位。尽管这仍然远小于菲利普莫里斯的香烟销量（同期总计 4640 亿个单位），但其增长速度非常快。</p>
</div><p>Zyn nicotine pouches are a smaller business compared to IQOS, but the company has experienced faster growth. Shipment volumes in the United States grew to 149 million cans last quarter compared to 105 million for the same period in 2023. The brand is growing so fast that Philip Morris has run into supply shortages. Supply constraints have started to ease, but they are still holding back Zyn's true growth potential. This should be realized in 2025 and 2026 and provide a further tailwind for Philip Morris's smoke-free business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zyn 尼古丁袋的业务规模相较于 IQOS 较小，但公司的增长速度更快。上个季度，美国的出货量增长至 1.49 亿罐，而 2023 年同期为 1.05 亿罐。该品牌增长如此迅速，以至于菲利普莫里斯遇到了供应短缺。供应限制开始缓解，但仍然抑制了 Zyn 的真正增长潜力。这一潜力预计将在 2025 年和 2026 年实现，为菲利普莫里斯的无烟业务提供进一步的助力。</p>
</div><h2>Pricing power and population tailwinds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定价能力和人口红利</h2>
</div><p>The legacy cigarette business is nothing to snuff at for Philip Morris. Unlike other cigarette makers with exposure to countries with stagnating or declining populations, Philip Morris International operates in countries with growing populations, which is helping buoy its shipment volumes even as the % of cigarette smokers declines around the world. Year to date (YTD) in 2024, cigarette volumes have been relatively flat at 0.5% growth, which is much better than its tobacco peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲利普莫里斯的传统香烟业务并非无足轻重。与其他在人口停滞或下降国家有业务的香烟制造商不同，菲利普莫里斯国际在人口增长的国家运营，这帮助其出货量保持稳定，即使全球吸烟者的比例在下降。2024 年迄今（YTD），香烟销量相对平稳，增长为 0.5%，这比其烟草同行要好得多。</p>
</div><p>Over the long run, Philip Morris's cigarette volume should start to decline. However, it can still grow sales through consistent price increases, which do not impact shipment volumes much. In 2022, the company raised combustibles pricing by an average of 5%. In 2023, it raised them by 8.9%. So far in 2024, it has raised them by an average of 8.8%. This has led to strong revenue growth and profitability for the combustibles business. Combined with this, the smoke-free business and management is expecting close to 10% revenue growth this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长远来看，菲利普莫里斯的香烟销量应该会开始下降。然而，它仍然可以通过持续的提价来实现销售增长，这对出货量的影响不大。2022 年，公司将可燃产品的价格平均提高了 5%。在 2023 年，价格提高了 8.9%。截至 2024 年，价格平均提高了 8.8%。这导致可燃产品业务实现了强劲的收入增长和盈利能力。结合这一点，无烟业务和管理层预计今年的收入增长接近 10%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f5b02898cb41f72d2c63301564ecbaf.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f5b02898cb41f72d2c63301564ecbaf.png"/></p>
<p>PM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PM 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy the stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该购买这只股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>After Druckenmiller's purchase of Philip Morris International, the stock has gone up quite a bit. Over the last six months, the total return for the stock is 37%, which is outperforming the market by a significant margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在德鲁肯米勒购买菲利普莫里斯国际股票后，该股上涨了不少。在过去六个月中，该股的总回报为 37%，显著超过市场表现。</p>
</div><p>This doesn't necessarily mean you have missed the boat, though. Even after this rise, Philip Morris International's forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is just 20, which is well below the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> average. Its dividend yields around 4%, providing shareholders with healthy dividend income each year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) have a clear path to growth over the long haul as the company keeps raising prices on cigarettes and adding customers to its smoke-free business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这并不一定意味着你错过了机会。即使在这次上涨之后，菲利普莫里斯国际的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 20，远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均水平。其股息收益率约为 4%，为股东提供了健康的股息收入。随着公司不断提高香烟价格并为无烟业务增加客户，收入和每股收益（EPS）在长期内有明确的增长路径。</p>
</div><p>If revenue keeps growing at 10% annually with strong profit margins, I think Philip Morris International stock has a lot of room to run. Add in the dividend income, and it is no surprise why Stan Druckenmiller added the stock to his portfolio earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果收入以 10% 的年增长率持续增长，且利润率强劲，我认为菲利普莫里斯国际的股票还有很大的上涨空间。再加上股息收入，斯坦·德鲁肯米勒在今年早些时候将该股票加入其投资组合也就不足为奇了。</p>
</div>

亿万富翁斯坦·德鲁肯米勒正在扩充他的投资组合