<p>上周，当 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.89%）公布了惊人的第三季度财报时，市场给予了热烈的掌声。很难相信，仅仅两年前，它的价值就缩水了一半，而现在仍在恢复——过去三年仅上涨了 13%。</p>
<p>投资者再次对亚马逊充满热情。自从在上一个熊市中下跌以来，它推出了一个庞大的生成性人工智能（AI）业务，增长率达到了三位数。亚马逊再次在一个新行业中占据主导地位。投资者可以期待亚马逊在五年后会是什么样子？</p>
<h2>生成性 AI 革命</h2>
<p>所有的目光都集中在亚马逊的 AI 能力上。生成性 AI 为企业提供了以更快、更具成本效益的方式工作的惊人方法，这些服务在几年前是无法想象的。亚马逊为其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）客户提供生成性 AI 解决方案，并不断推出新服务、改进和解决方案，以满足各种需求和预算。</p>
<p>这也是它相较于其他提供商的一个优势——当亚马逊进入一个新领域时，它会大举投入，努力满足所有人的需求。大多数公司无法做到这一点，通常更适合专注于某个细分市场。亚马逊是一个罕见的公司，不需要依赖细分市场。</p>
<p>还有一些隐藏的好处。管理层多次指出，尽管云计算正在快速增长，但公司信息技术支出的 90% 仍未转移到云上。这类业务改革需要时间，但首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）认为这一趋势将会逆转。</p>
<p>但每当这样的改革开始加速时，这将是亚马逊的一个转折点。它可能已经开始：随着公司看到生成性 AI 的作用，他们意识到需要上云，以最有效地利用这些解决方案。这对 AWS 整体产生了影响，AWS 的销售在第三季度加速增长了 19%。</p>
<p>贾西指出，生成性 AI 业务的增长率达到了三位数，年化收入已达到数十亿美元，并且在这一发展阶段的表现超出了 AWS 的预期。潜力非常巨大，五年后，随着更多客户加入 AWS 和现有客户扩大合作关系，增长可能会加速。</p>
<h2>电子商务没有放缓</h2>
<p>尽管 AI 革命令人兴奋，投资者也不应一刻忘记电子商务。这仍然是亚马逊的核心业务，为其整体运营和各个业务板块的投资提供了动力。</p>
<p>亚马逊去年将其物流网络从全国性重组为区域性，仍在享受更快的交付和更低的履行成本带来的好处。</p>
<p>它正在改善入库库存链，确保区域仓库有现货，并且其在区域配送中心的库存移动能力在第三季度提高了 25%。在这一季度，它开设了更多的当日履行中心，当日交付的订单发送给了超过 4000 万客户，同比增长了 25%。</p>
<p>该公司还在路易斯安那州开设了其技术最先进的配送中心，在那里试点其最新的机器人系统，并将交付速度提高了 25%。预计成本也将降低 25%。</p>
<p>这只是一个中心。随着技术在美国的推广，它应该会继续改善交付时间并降低成本。</p>
<p>五年后，亚马逊应该会实现更快的交付速度，同时降低成本。随着 Prime 会员对其平台的依赖加深，它可能会获得更大的市场份额，创造更高的收入。亚马逊甚至可能超越 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，成为美国销售额最大的公司。</p>
<h2>全面进展</h2>
<p>亚马逊已经发展出一个竞争力强的广告业务，报告了强劲的销售增长。它将所有的 AI 和数据分析能力应用于广告业务，例如从产品图像创建视频的能力。这一业务已经成为亚马逊增长最快的业务之一，但随着 AWS 的重新加速，它们在第三季度的增长率达到了 19%。</p>
<p>这里有很长的增长空间，因为亚马逊现在在其庞大的多平台帝国中提供广告，包括电子商务网站、音频和视频。</p>
<p>它在亚马逊药房方面也在取得进展。90% 的处方仍在实体药房中配药，而大多数在线药房需要 5 到 10 天才能将订单送到客户手中。亚马逊可以在两天内将订单送达 95% 的 Prime 会员，20% 的会员则可以在一天内收到订单。它计划在未来一年内在 20 个新城市开设业务。</p>
<p>亚马逊以其收购和新业务尝试而闻名。目前，它看起来将重心放在了 AI 上。五年后，它可能仍会忙于管理已经运营的业务。</p>
<p>亚马逊的股票在财报发布后上涨，今年已上涨 30%。五年后，它可能会继续保持这一势头，为长期投资者提供稳定的价值。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊最近发布的第三季度财报重新点燃了投资者的热情，AWS 销售增长了 19%，生成性人工智能业务蓬勃发展。该公司正在重组其物流，以实现更快的交付和更低的成本，同时还在扩展其广告和药房服务。在未来五年内，亚马逊旨在增强其人工智能能力，提高电子商务效率，并有可能在销售额上超越沃尔玛，同时在各个业务板块保持强劲增长</p>

<p>The market gave <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.89%) a nice round of applause last week when it reported phenomenal third-quarter earnings. It's hard to believe that only two years ago, it lost half of its value, and it's still recovering -- it's up only 13% over the past three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，当 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.89%）公布了惊人的第三季度财报时，市场给予了热烈的掌声。很难相信，仅仅两年前，它的价值就缩水了一半，而现在仍在恢复——过去三年仅上涨了 13%。</p>
</div><p>Investors are enthusiastic about Amazon again. Since its fall in the last bear market, it has unveiled a massive generative artificial intelligence (AI) business that's growing at triple digits. Once again, Amazon is dominating a new industry. Where can investors expect Amazon to be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者再次对亚马逊充满热情。自从在上一个熊市中下跌以来，它推出了一个庞大的生成性人工智能（AI）业务，增长率达到了三位数。亚马逊再次在一个新行业中占据主导地位。投资者可以期待亚马逊在五年后会是什么样子？</p>
</div><h2>The generative AI revolution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>生成性 AI 革命</h2>
</div><p>All eyes are on Amazon's AI capabilities. Generative AI has unlocked incredible ways for businesses to work faster and more cost-effectively, with services they couldn't have imagined a few short years ago. Amazon offers generative AI solutions for its Amazon Web Services (AWS) customers, and it hasn't stopped rolling out new services, improvements, and solutions to meet every need and budget.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有的目光都集中在亚马逊的 AI 能力上。生成性 AI 为企业提供了以更快、更具成本效益的方式工作的惊人方法，这些服务在几年前是无法想象的。亚马逊为其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）客户提供生成性 AI 解决方案，并不断推出新服务、改进和解决方案，以满足各种需求和预算。</p>
</div><p>That's one of its strengths compared to other providers -- when Amazon goes into something new, it goes big, and tries to be everything to everyone. Most companies can't get away with that and do better filling a niche. Amazon is the rare company that doesn't need a niche.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是它相较于其他提供商的一个优势——当亚马逊进入一个新领域时，它会大举投入，努力满足所有人的需求。大多数公司无法做到这一点，通常更适合专注于某个细分市场。亚马逊是一个罕见的公司，不需要依赖细分市场。</p>
</div><p>There are hidden benefits, too. Management has noted several times that 90% of company information technology spend is still not on the cloud, as fast as it's growing. Those kinds of business overhauls take time, but CEO Andy Jassy thinks it's going to flip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有一些隐藏的好处。管理层多次指出，尽管云计算正在快速增长，但公司信息技术支出的 90% 仍未转移到云上。这类业务改革需要时间，但首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）认为这一趋势将会逆转。</p>
</div><p>But whenever such overhauls pick up momentum, it would be a watershed moment for Amazon. It might be starting: As companies see what generative AI is doing, they're realizing that they need to be on the cloud to make the most effective use of the solutions. That's affecting AWS overall, and AWS sales accelerated to a 19% increase in the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但每当这样的改革开始加速时，这将是亚马逊的一个转折点。它可能已经开始：随着公司看到生成性 AI 的作用，他们意识到需要上云，以最有效地利用这些解决方案。这对 AWS 整体产生了影响，AWS 的销售在第三季度加速增长了 19%。</p>
</div><p>Jassy noted that the generative AI business is growing at triple-digit rates, reaching a multi-billion-dollar run rate, and is outperforming where AWS was at this phase of development. The potential is really massive, and in five years from now, it could be accelerating as more clients join AWS and existing clients expand their relationships.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贾西指出，生成性 AI 业务的增长率达到了三位数，年化收入已达到数十亿美元，并且在这一发展阶段的表现超出了 AWS 的预期。潜力非常巨大，五年后，随着更多客户加入 AWS 和现有客户扩大合作关系，增长可能会加速。</p>
</div><h2>No slowing down in e-commerce</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电子商务没有放缓</h2>
</div><p>As exciting as the AI revolution is, investors shouldn't forget about e-commerce for one moment. It's still Amazon's core business, providing the engine it needs to run the total business and invest in all its segments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 AI 革命令人兴奋，投资者也不应一刻忘记电子商务。这仍然是亚马逊的核心业务，为其整体运营和各个业务板块的投资提供了动力。</p>
</div><p>Amazon restructured its logistics network last year from a national to a regional one, and it's still realizing the benefits in faster deliveries and lower fulfillment costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊去年将其物流网络从全国性重组为区域性，仍在享受更快的交付和更低的履行成本带来的好处。</p>
</div><p>It's working on improving its inbound inventory chain, making sure that regional warehouses have products on hand, and its ability to move inventory throughout its regional distribution centers improved by 25% in the third quarter. It opened more same-day fulfillment centers in the quarter, and same-day deliveries were sent to more than 40 million customers, a 25% increase year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它正在改善入库库存链，确保区域仓库有现货，并且其在区域配送中心的库存移动能力在第三季度提高了 25%。在这一季度，它开设了更多的当日履行中心，当日交付的订单发送给了超过 4000 万客户，同比增长了 25%。</p>
</div><p>The company also opened its highest-tech distribution center in Louisiana, where it's piloting its newest robotics systems, and it improved delivery speed by 25%. It's expected to cut costs by 25% as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司还在路易斯安那州开设了其技术最先进的配送中心，在那里试点其最新的机器人系统，并将交付速度提高了 25%。预计成本也将降低 25%。</p>
</div><p>That's just one center. As it rolls out the technology throughout the U.S., it should continue to improve delivery times and shave off costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这只是一个中心。随着技术在美国的推广，它应该会继续改善交付时间并降低成本。</p>
</div><p>In five years from now, Amazon should have faster delivery speeds while cutting down costs. As Prime members become even more reliant on its platform, it could capture greater market share, generating higher revenue. Amazon could even overtake <strong>Walmart</strong> as the largest U.S. company by sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年后，亚马逊应该会实现更快的交付速度，同时降低成本。随着 Prime 会员对其平台的依赖加深，它可能会获得更大的市场份额，创造更高的收入。亚马逊甚至可能超越 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，成为美国销售额最大的公司。</p>
</div><h2>Making progress all around</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>全面进展</h2>
</div><p>Amazon has developed a competitive advertising business that's been reporting robust sales growth. It's bringing all its AI and data analytics capabilities to the ad business, such as the ability to create a video from a product image. It has been Amazon's fastest-growing business for some time, but with the reacceleration in AWS, they tied in the third quarter at 19%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊已经发展出一个竞争力强的广告业务，报告了强劲的销售增长。它将所有的 AI 和数据分析能力应用于广告业务，例如从产品图像创建视频的能力。这一业务已经成为亚马逊增长最快的业务之一，但随着 AWS 的重新加速，它们在第三季度的增长率达到了 19%。</p>
</div><p>There's a long growth runway here as Amazon now offers advertisements throughout its vast multi-platform empire, including the e-commerce site, audio, and video.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里有很长的增长空间，因为亚马逊现在在其庞大的多平台帝国中提供广告，包括电子商务网站、音频和视频。</p>
</div><p>It's also making progress in Amazon Pharmacy. 90% of prescriptions are still filled at physical pharmacies, and most online pharmacies get orders to customers in five to 10 days. Amazon can get orders to customers within two days for 95% of Prime members, and within one day for 20%. It plans to open operations in 20 new cities over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在亚马逊药房方面也在取得进展。90% 的处方仍在实体药房中配药，而大多数在线药房需要 5 到 10 天才能将订单送到客户手中。亚马逊可以在两天内将订单送达 95% 的 Prime 会员，20% 的会员则可以在一天内收到订单。它计划在未来一年内在 20 个新城市开设业务。</p>
</div><p>Amazon is known for its acquisitions and attempts at new business. Right now, it looks like that engine is focused on AI. In five years, it could still have its hands full with the businesses it's already running.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊以其收购和新业务尝试而闻名。目前，它看起来将重心放在了 AI 上。五年后，它可能仍会忙于管理已经运营的业务。</p>
</div><p>Amazon stock jumped after earnings and is up 30% this year. In five years, it's likely to keep that up and provide solid value to long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的股票在财报发布后上涨，今年已上涨 30%。五年后，它可能会继续保持这一势头，为长期投资者提供稳定的价值。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Be in 5 Years?

- 亚马逊第三季度财报表现优异，股价上涨 30%。  
- 其生成式人工智能业务增长迅猛，AWS 销售增长 19%。  
- 电商和广告业务持续发展，未来五年有望进一步提升市场份额。

亚马逊五年后会发展到什么程度？