<p><strong>奥驰亚</strong>(MO 0.95%) 的股票在过去一年中表现出色，价值增长超过 30%。2024 年第三季度的财报让投资者特别兴奋，股票在发布后迅速上涨。但奥驰亚的业务真的那么好吗？要回答这个问题，你需要深入研究一下数据。但你只需稍微探究一下，就会意识到长期前景可能并不像管理层希望你相信的那样美好。</p>
<h2>奥驰亚的业务是什么？</h2>
<p>重要的是要退后一步，了解奥驰亚所经营的核心业务。在 2024 年前九个月，该公司大约产生了 180 亿美元的收入。在这个总额中，可吸烟产品带来了 159 亿美元的收入，约占总收入的 88%。可吸烟产品包括香烟和雪茄，其中香烟占据了约 98% 的销量。在香烟中，万宝路品牌占据了超过 90% 的销量。所有这些都清楚地表明，奥驰亚是一家高端品牌香烟公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY2MTkvMjNfMDJfMjAtaGFuZHMtaG9sZGluZy1ibG9ja3Mtc3BlbGxpbmctcmlzay1hbmQtcmV3YXJkLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY2MTkvMjNfMDJfMjAtaGFuZHMtaG9sZGluZy1ibG9ja3Mtc3BlbGxpbmctcmlzay1hbmQtcmV3YXJkLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>但现在，奥驰亚花了很多时间来强调其最近收购的 NJOY 电子烟业务。这是公司 2024 年第三季度财报中首次详细讨论的 “部门”。奥驰亚强调积极因素是有道理的。NJOY 确实有很多积极因素，但你必须对这些信息保持谨慎。</p>
<p>例如，在第三季度，NJOY 的消费品出货量同比增长了 15.6%。NJOY 设备的出货量增长超过 100%！而且 NJOY 在其产品类别中年同比增长了 2.8 个百分点。这些都是非常好的消息，但 NJOY 的基数很小。仅仅将 NJOY 纳入奥驰亚的分销系统，就可以预期其业绩会迅速改善。换句话说，产品的增长是好消息，但考虑到当前的情况，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png"/></p>
<p>MO 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>奥驰亚的问题并没有消失</h2>
<p>在这里，投资者需要更加谨慎。公司在试图淡化其最糟糕的特征时，正在大力宣传其最佳属性。尽管 NJOY 是一个亮点，但它的规模太小，以至于其产生的收入被归类为 “其他” 类别。作为参考，尽管 NJOY 管理层告诉投资者有关增长的所有信息，但在第三季度，“其他” 类别在收入表中所占的比例不到 1%。这甚至不是一个四舍五入的误差。</p>
<p>事实上，NJOY 的所有增长似乎在 2024 年前九个月并没有帮助奥驰亚的总收入，因为整体收入同比下降了 2.5%。当你查看奥驰亚大部分收入的来源时，原因非常简单。这仍然是一家高端香烟公司。就这样。NJOY 是一个很好的故事，但在这一点上并没有多大意义，可能还需要很长时间才能对公司香烟业务的持续下滑产生足够的影响。</p>
<p>为了量化这种下滑，万宝路的销量在第三季度下降了 7.5%，在 2024 年前九个月下降了 9.4%。奥驰亚的非万宝路品牌表现更差。但这里有一个重要的结论——即使是常规的提价也不足以抵消 2024 年前九个月销量下滑带来的影响。</p>
<h2>这不是一只适合胆小者的分红股票</h2>
<p>从投资者的角度来看，问题在于奥驰亚支付了高达 7.5% 的丰厚分红收益率，这对分红投资者来说就像是海妖的召唤。尽管其最重要的业务持续下滑，但目前仍能支持这一收益率。但长期的分红投资者需要问自己，这种情况能持续多久，因为华尔街如此兴奋的替代产品仍然只是奥驰亚业务中的一小部分。</p>
<p>如果你决定购买奥驰亚的股票，确保像鹰一样紧盯这只股票。然而，大多数投资者可能更适合寻找其他可靠的被动收入来源。</p>

奥驰亚集团

<p>奥驰亚集团的股价在过去一年中上涨了超过 30%，主要受到强劲的第三季度财报推动。然而，关于其业务可持续性的担忧依然存在，公司的收入主要依赖于可吸烟产品，这部分产品占总收入的 88%。尽管 NJOY 电子烟部门有所增长，但其贡献仍然较小，整体收入同比下降了 2.5%。公司面临香烟销量下降的挑战，这引发了对其高股息收益率长期可行性的质疑。投资者被建议保持谨慎，并考虑其他可靠的收入选择</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Altria</strong>(MO 0.95%) have had a great run over the past year, gaining more than 30% in value. Third-quarter 2024 earnings got investors particularly excited, with the stock rallying sharply after the release. But is Altria's business really that good? To answer that question you need to dig into the numbers a little bit. But you only have to scratch the surface before you realize that the long-term picture may not be as good as management wants you to believe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>奥驰亚</strong>(MO 0.95%) 的股票在过去一年中表现出色，价值增长超过 30%。2024 年第三季度的财报让投资者特别兴奋，股票在发布后迅速上涨。但奥驰亚的业务真的那么好吗？要回答这个问题，你需要深入研究一下数据。但你只需稍微探究一下，就会意识到长期前景可能并不像管理层希望你相信的那样美好。</p>
</div><h2>What does Altria do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奥驰亚的业务是什么？</h2>
</div><p>It is important to step back and understand the core business in which Altria operates. Through the first nine months of 2024, the company generated roughly $18 billion in revenue. Of that total, smokable products brought in $15.9 billion in revenue, or about 88% of the total. Smokable products include both cigarettes and cigars, with cigarettes accounting for about 98% of volume. Within cigarettes, the Marlboro brand accounted for just over 90% of volume. All this leads very clearly to the fact that Altria is a high-end branded cigarette company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是要退后一步，了解奥驰亚所经营的核心业务。在 2024 年前九个月，该公司大约产生了 180 亿美元的收入。在这个总额中，可吸烟产品带来了 159 亿美元的收入，约占总收入的 88%。可吸烟产品包括香烟和雪茄，其中香烟占据了约 98% 的销量。在香烟中，万宝路品牌占据了超过 90% 的销量。所有这些都清楚地表明，奥驰亚是一家高端品牌香烟公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY2MTkvMjNfMDJfMjAtaGFuZHMtaG9sZGluZy1ibG9ja3Mtc3BlbGxpbmctcmlzay1hbmQtcmV3YXJkLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796619%2F23_02_20-hands-holding-blocks-spelling-risk-and-reward-_mf-dload.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But right now, Altria is spending a lot of time highlighting the NJOY vaping business it recently acquired. It is the first &#34;division&#34; that is discussed in any detail in the company's third-quarter 2024 earnings release. It makes sense that Altria would highlight the positives. And there are major positives with NJOY, but you have to take them with a grain of salt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在，奥驰亚花了很多时间来强调其最近收购的 NJOY 电子烟业务。这是公司 2024 年第三季度财报中首次详细讨论的 “部门”。奥驰亚强调积极因素是有道理的。NJOY 确实有很多积极因素，但你必须对这些信息保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p>For example, in the third quarter, NJOY's consumables shipment volume rose 15.6% compared to the same quarter a year ago. NJOY devices shipments rose more than 100%! And NJOY gained 2.8 share points year over year in its product category. That's all very good news, but NJOY is working off of a small base. A swift improvement in performance is to be expected just from plugging NJOY into Altria's distribution system alone. Put another way, the product's growth is good news, but given the situation it isn't surprising news in any way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在第三季度，NJOY 的消费品出货量同比增长了 15.6%。NJOY 设备的出货量增长超过 100%！而且 NJOY 在其产品类别中年同比增长了 2.8 个百分点。这些都是非常好的消息，但 NJOY 的基数很小。仅仅将 NJOY 纳入奥驰亚的分销系统，就可以预期其业绩会迅速改善。换句话说，产品的增长是好消息，但考虑到当前的情况，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png"/></p>
<p>MO data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MO 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Altria's problems haven't gone away</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奥驰亚的问题并没有消失</h2>
</div><p>This is where investors need to be more discerning. The company is cheerleading its best attributes as it attempts to downplay its worst ones. And while NJOY is a bright spot, it is so small that the income it generates is classified in the &#34;other&#34; category. The &#34;other&#34; category on the income statement, for reference, accounted for much less than 1% of revenue in the third quarter despite all of that growth at NJOY management told investors about. It isn't even a rounding error.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里，投资者需要更加谨慎。公司在试图淡化其最糟糕的特征时，正在大力宣传其最佳属性。尽管 NJOY 是一个亮点，但它的规模太小，以至于其产生的收入被归类为 “其他” 类别。作为参考，尽管 NJOY 管理层告诉投资者有关增长的所有信息，但在第三季度，“其他” 类别在收入表中所占的比例不到 1%。这甚至不是一个四舍五入的误差。</p>
</div><p>In fact, all of that growth at NJOY seemingly didn't help Altria's top line at all through the first nine months of the year, since overall revenue declined 2.5% year over year in that span. The reason is really simple to understand, too, when you look at where most of Altria's revenue is generated. This is still a premium cigarette company. Period. Hard stop. NJOY is a great story, but it just isn't meaningful at this point, and it will likely be a long time before it is meaningful enough to offset the ongoing declines in the company's cigarette business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，NJOY 的所有增长似乎在 2024 年前九个月并没有帮助奥驰亚的总收入，因为整体收入同比下降了 2.5%。当你查看奥驰亚大部分收入的来源时，原因非常简单。这仍然是一家高端香烟公司。就这样。NJOY 是一个很好的故事，但在这一点上并没有多大意义，可能还需要很长时间才能对公司香烟业务的持续下滑产生足够的影响。</p>
</div><p>To put a number on the declines, Marlboro volume was down 7.5% in the third quarter and was off by 9.4% through the first nine months of 2024. Altria's non-Marlboro brands performed even worse. But here's the big takeaway -- even regular price increases weren't enough to offset the hit from volume declines through the first nine months of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了量化这种下滑，万宝路的销量在第三季度下降了 7.5%，在 2024 年前九个月下降了 9.4%。奥驰亚的非万宝路品牌表现更差。但这里有一个重要的结论——即使是常规的提价也不足以抵消 2024 年前九个月销量下滑带来的影响。</p>
</div><h2>This is not a dividend stock for the faint of heart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这不是一只适合胆小者的分红股票</h2>
</div><p>The problem from an investor's point of view is that Altria pays a huge 7.5% dividend yield, which is like a siren call to dividend investors. It can support that yield for now despite the ongoing declines in its most important business. But long-term dividend investors need to ask how long this can last given that the replacement product Wall Street is so excited about is still just a tiny part of Altria's business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从投资者的角度来看，问题在于奥驰亚支付了高达 7.5% 的丰厚分红收益率，这对分红投资者来说就像是海妖的召唤。尽管其最重要的业务持续下滑，但目前仍能支持这一收益率。但长期的分红投资者需要问自己，这种情况能持续多久，因为华尔街如此兴奋的替代产品仍然只是奥驰亚业务中的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>If you do decide to buy Altria, make sure you follow the stock like a hawk. Most investors, however, will probably be better off looking elsewhere for reliable passive income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你决定购买奥驰亚的股票，确保像鹰一样紧盯这只股票。然而，大多数投资者可能更适合寻找其他可靠的被动收入来源。</p>
</div>

奥驰亚集团的股票上涨了，但这只股票值得购买吗？