<p>密切关注 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.12%）的投资者已经知道，其最近结束的财年第四季度业绩仅属平庸。尽管销售额和营业收入同比均有所上升，公司在收入和每股收益方面超出了华尔街的预期，但其实际净进展仍然有限。当前进行的季度的收入指引也不尽如人意，报告发布后股价反而下跌。</p>
<p>然而，在这些数字和财报后的讨论中，有一个重要的结论不容忽视：这家公司迫切需要其面向消费者的人工智能平台——称为 Apple Intelligence——取得成功。如果没有，它的低迷增长可能会持续下去。</p>
<h2>平淡的 iPhone 需求正在削弱公司整体收入</h2>
<p>苹果在截至 9 月的季度收入为 949 亿美元，较去年同期的 895 亿美元有所改善，并超出了分析师一致预期的 946 亿美元。尽管利润从去年同期的每股 1.46 美元下降至本季度的每股 0.97 美元，但这一下降反映了一次性税款支付。调整后的每股收益为 1.64 美元，仍高于分析师预期的 1.60 美元。</p>
<p>然而，奇怪的是，尽管 Apple Intelligence 的推出在即，iPhone 的收入上季度仅增长了 5.5%，而该平台需要较新的 iPhone 15 或 iPhone 16 才能正常运行。</p>
<p>这两款智能手机在相关季度内均已上市。后者于 9 月底发布，前者则在 2023 年 9 月推出。需求并没有出现激增。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY3MjIvMTEwNTI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY3MjIvMTEwNTI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：苹果。图表由作者制作。收入单位为百万美元。YOY = 同比。</p>
<p>这并不是苹果人工智能努力的一个强劲开局。</p>
<p>而且，是的，这很重要，甚至可能比你预期的还要重要。</p>
<p>因为，iPhone 的收入大约占苹果总收入的一半，显然也占据了相当一部分的毛利润和营业收入。如果苹果表现良好，很大程度上要归功于 iPhone。如果 iPhone 业务停滞不前，那么苹果整体也很可能停滞不前。而问题在于：无论是按收入还是按销量计算，自 2022 年初以来，苹果的 iPhone 业务实际上并没有增长。公司的总收入也没有增长，Mac 和 iPad 的销售增长正在减弱。其服务部门是唯一显示出真正的长期增长的部分，但这不足以推动整体增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY3MjIvMTEwNTI0LWFwcGxlLXJldmVudWUtYnktc291cmNlLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY3MjIvMTEwNTI0LWFwcGxlLXJldmVudWUtYnktc291cmNlLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：苹果公司。图表由作者制作。收入单位为百万美元。</p>
<p>也不要指望近期会有任何实质性的帮助。首席执行官蒂姆·库克在财年第四季度的财报电话会议上表示，苹果目前只期望本季度的收入增长在 “低到中个位数” 的范围内。假期季度通常是这款热门智能手机的销售旺季，但这次可能不会如此。</p>
<p>与 2022 年前的时期相比，iPhone 的需求增长依然乏力，而 Apple Intelligence 可能是唯一能够重新点燃需求的催化剂。然而，到目前为止，它的帮助并不明显。</p>
<h2>生成性人工智能不会是苹果困境的灵丹妙药</h2>
<p>永远不要说永远。技术市场研究机构 IDC 预测，像 iPhone 15 和 iPhone 16 这样的生成性人工智能智能手机的销售将在今年达到 2.342 亿部，预计到 2028 年将达到 9.12 亿部，这些设备将占据智能手机市场的 70%。这一顺风将对苹果大有裨益。</p>
<p>但这也将帮助其他具备 AI 功能的智能手机制造商。</p>
<p>以 <strong>三星</strong> 的 Galaxy S24 和谷歌的 Pixel 8 为例。前者采用了 <strong>高通</strong> 的 Snapdragon 8 处理器，专为处理重型人工智能工作而设计。Pixel 8 则使用了谷歌自家的 Tensor G3 芯片，同样是专门为运行本地 AI 而设计。</p>
<p>此外，消费者还可以选择将生成性 AI 工作的重担继续转移到云端。例如，<strong>微软</strong> 的 CoPilot 是一个便携式人工智能平台，可以在大多数智能手机上运行，但如果用户将工作转移到个人电脑上，它可以接着用户的上一个操作继续工作。</p>
<p>还有一种可能性是——尽管仍然具有颠覆性——生成性人工智能的实际影响可能没有之前预测的那么显著。</p>
<p>这一前景正是技术市场研究公司及咨询公司 <strong>Gartner</strong> 所提出的。在其于 7 月发布的《新兴技术的炒作周期》报告中，该公司表示，生成性人工智能现在已经过了 “膨胀期望的顶峰”，正进入 “失望的低谷” 阶段。这正是世界被迫接受这一技术实际上并没有其支持者最初暗示的那么实用或可靠的时刻。</p>
<p>Gartner 并不是唯一对此表示担忧的机构。<strong>高盛</strong> 全球股票研究负责人吉姆·科沃洛在 7 月谈到生成性人工智能时表示：“虽然人工智能技术是否能兑现许多人今天所期待的承诺无疑是一个值得讨论的问题，但更不容置疑的是，人工智能技术的成本异常高昂，而要证明这些成本的合理性，该技术必须能够解决复杂问题，而这并不是它所设计的。”</p>
<p>这并不是说 Apple Intelligence（或任何其他面向消费者的生成性人工智能）毫无用处。然而，这确实引发了一个问题，即这些服务能够推动多少 iPhone 的需求。</p>
<h2>任何事情都不是坚如磐石的看涨论调</h2>
<p>需要明确的是，苹果远未走向灭亡。即使没有任何实质性的增长，它仍然是全球最大和最盈利的公司之一。它依然在智能手机市场中处于领先地位，其服务业务也在持续增长。事实上，公司表示其服务部门的增长将与当前年化增长率略低于 13% 的速度相匹配，并且可能在未来几年内保持这一增长速度。</p>
<p>不过，除非 iPhone 业务开始提速，否则苹果可能仍会继续报告仅仅平庸的业绩。人工智能看起来是唯一可能的增长驱动力，但这并不是一个确定的事情。</p>
<p>目前没有必要抛售你的苹果股票——至少现在还不需要。只需知道，目前市场上还有一些增长前景更为确定的公司。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果最近的财 fiscal 第四季度业绩显示出温和的增长，收入同比上升，但 iPhone 的需求停滞不前。公司需要其人工智能平台 Apple Intelligence 成功，以避免持续的低迷增长。首席执行官蒂姆·库克预计当前季度的增长将在低到中个位数之间，假日季节不太可能显著提升 iPhone 的销量。尽管生成式人工智能可能有所帮助，但来自其他制造商的竞争以及对人工智能影响预期的潜在下降给苹果带来了挑战</p>

<p>Investors who keep close tabs on <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.12%) already know its recently ended fiscal fourth-quarter results were just mediocre. Although sales and operating income were both up year over year, and the company beat Wall Street's estimates on revenue and earnings per share, its actual net progress was modest. Top-line guidance for the quarter currently underway was also less than thrilling, and the report sent shares lower rather than higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>密切关注 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.12%）的投资者已经知道，其最近结束的财年第四季度业绩仅属平庸。尽管销售额和营业收入同比均有所上升，公司在收入和每股收益方面超出了华尔街的预期，但其实际净进展仍然有限。当前进行的季度的收入指引也不尽如人意，报告发布后股价反而下跌。</p>
</div><p>However, there's a takeaway buried in the numbers and post-earnings discussion that's too important to ignore: This company desperately needs its consumer-oriented AI platform -- called Apple Intelligence -- to be a hit. If it isn't, its days of anemic growth could be here to stay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在这些数字和财报后的讨论中，有一个重要的结论不容忽视：这家公司迫切需要其面向消费者的人工智能平台——称为 Apple Intelligence——取得成功。如果没有，它的低迷增长可能会持续下去。</p>
</div><h2>Tepid iPhone demand is undermining companywide revenue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>平淡的 iPhone 需求正在削弱公司整体收入</h2>
</div><p>Apple's revenue of $94.9 billion for the quarter ending in September improved on sales of $89.5 billion in the prior-year period, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $94.6 billion in the process. While profits slipped from $1.46 per share in the comparable quarter a year earlier to only $0.97 per share this time around, that dip reflected a one-time tax payment. The adjusted figure of $1.64 per share was still better than the $1.60 per share analysts were expecting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在截至 9 月的季度收入为 949 亿美元，较去年同期的 895 亿美元有所改善，并超出了分析师一致预期的 946 亿美元。尽管利润从去年同期的每股 1.46 美元下降至本季度的每股 0.97 美元，但这一下降反映了一次性税款支付。调整后的每股收益为 1.64 美元，仍高于分析师预期的 1.60 美元。</p>
</div><p>Curiously though, iPhone revenue only grew 5.5% last quarter despite the then-pending October launch of Apple Intelligence, which requires the newer iPhone 15 or iPhone 16 to function.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，奇怪的是，尽管 Apple Intelligence 的推出在即，iPhone 的收入上季度仅增长了 5.5%，而该平台需要较新的 iPhone 15 或 iPhone 16 才能正常运行。</p>
</div><p>Both smartphones were available during the quarter in question. The latter was released in late September, and the former was launched in September 2023. There just wasn't a swell of demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两款智能手机在相关季度内均已上市。后者于 9 月底发布，前者则在 2023 年 9 月推出。需求并没有出现激增。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY3MjIvMTEwNTI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796722%2F110524-iphone-revenue.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Apple. Chart by author. Revenue figures in millions. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：苹果。图表由作者制作。收入单位为百万美元。YOY = 同比。</p>
</div><p>It was not exactly a roaring start to Apple's artificial intelligence efforts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是苹果人工智能努力的一个强劲开局。</p>
</div><p>And yes, it matters, and perhaps even more than you might expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，是的，这很重要，甚至可能比你预期的还要重要。</p>
</div><p>See, the iPhone consistently accounts for roughly half of Apple's revenue, and presumably, a decent-sized chunk of its gross profits and operating income. If Apple's doing well, it's largely thanks to the iPhone. If its iPhone business is stagnating, then Apple as a whole is mostly likely stagnating too. And there's the rub: As measured by revenue or by unit sales, Apple's iPhone business hasn't really grown since early 2022. Neither has the company's total top line, as sales growth for Macs and iPads fades. Its services arm is the only one showing any real net long-term growth, but that's not enough on its own to drive companywide growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因为，iPhone 的收入大约占苹果总收入的一半，显然也占据了相当一部分的毛利润和营业收入。如果苹果表现良好，很大程度上要归功于 iPhone。如果 iPhone 业务停滞不前，那么苹果整体也很可能停滞不前。而问题在于：无论是按收入还是按销量计算，自 2022 年初以来，苹果的 iPhone 业务实际上并没有增长。公司的总收入也没有增长，Mac 和 iPad 的销售增长正在减弱。其服务部门是唯一显示出真正的长期增长的部分，但这不足以推动整体增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY3MjIvMTEwNTI0LWFwcGxlLXJldmVudWUtYnktc291cmNlLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796722%2F110524-apple-revenue-by-source.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Apple Inc. Chart by author. Revenue figures are in millions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：苹果公司。图表由作者制作。收入单位为百万美元。</p>
</div><p>Don't look for any meaningful help immediately ahead, either. CEO Tim Cook commented during the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call that Apple is only looking for top-line growth in the &#34;low- to mid-single-digit&#34; range for the quarter now underway. The holiday quarter is usually a big one for the popular smartphone, but that's not likely to be the case this time around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也不要指望近期会有任何实质性的帮助。首席执行官蒂姆·库克在财年第四季度的财报电话会议上表示，苹果目前只期望本季度的收入增长在 “低到中个位数” 的范围内。假期季度通常是这款热门智能手机的销售旺季，但这次可能不会如此。</p>
</div><p>Demand growth for the iPhone remains lackluster compared to the pre-2022 period, and Apple Intelligence may be the only catalyst that could reignite it. So far, however, it's not helping much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 2022 年前的时期相比，iPhone 的需求增长依然乏力，而 Apple Intelligence 可能是唯一能够重新点燃需求的催化剂。然而，到目前为止，它的帮助并不明显。</p>
</div><h2>Generative AI won't be a panacea for Apple's woes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>生成性人工智能不会是苹果困境的灵丹妙药</h2>
</div><p>Never say never. Technology market research outfit IDC suggests that sales of generative-AI-capable smartphones like the iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 will reach 234.2 million units this year, en route 912 million in 2028, when these devices will account for 70% of the smartphone market. That tailwind will certainly prove helpful to Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永远不要说永远。技术市场研究机构 IDC 预测，像 iPhone 15 和 iPhone 16 这样的生成性人工智能智能手机的销售将在今年达到 2.342 亿部，预计到 2028 年将达到 9.12 亿部，这些设备将占据智能手机市场的 70%。这一顺风将对苹果大有裨益。</p>
</div><p>But it will also help other AI-ready smartphone manufacturers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这也将帮助其他具备 AI 功能的智能手机制造商。</p>
</div><p>Take <strong>Samsung</strong>'s Galaxy S24 and Google's Pixel 8 as examples. The former utilizes <strong>Qualcomm</strong>'s Snapdragon 8 processor, which was built to handle heavy-duty artificial intelligence work. The Pixel 8 utilizes Google's own Tensor G3 chip, which was also specifically designed to run onboard AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 <strong>三星</strong> 的 Galaxy S24 和谷歌的 Pixel 8 为例。前者采用了 <strong>高通</strong> 的 Snapdragon 8 处理器，专为处理重型人工智能工作而设计。Pixel 8 则使用了谷歌自家的 Tensor G3 芯片，同样是专门为运行本地 AI 而设计。</p>
</div><p>Then there's consumers' option of continuing to punt the heavy lifting of generative AI work to the cloud. <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s CoPilot, for instance, is a portable artificial intelligence platform that functions on most smartphones, but can pick up where that user left off if and when they shift their work to a personal computer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，消费者还可以选择将生成性 AI 工作的重担继续转移到云端。例如，<strong>微软</strong> 的 CoPilot 是一个便携式人工智能平台，可以在大多数智能手机上运行，但如果用户将工作转移到个人电脑上，它可以接着用户的上一个操作继续工作。</p>
</div><p>There's also the possibility that -- while still game-changing -- generative artificial intelligence turns out to be not quite as game-changing as previously predicted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有一种可能性是——尽管仍然具有颠覆性——生成性人工智能的实际影响可能没有之前预测的那么显著。</p>
</div><p>That's a prospect being suggested by technology market research firm and consultancy <strong>Gartner</strong>. In this year's <em>Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies</em> report, which it published in July, the firm said generative AI is now past its &#34;peak of inflated expectations&#34; phase and entering its &#34;trough of disillusionment&#34; stage. That's simply the point the world is forced to accept that the tech doesn't actually offer as much practical or reliable usefulness as its boosters initially intimated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一前景正是技术市场研究公司及咨询公司 <strong>Gartner</strong> 所提出的。在其于 7 月发布的《新兴技术的炒作周期》报告中，该公司表示，生成性人工智能现在已经过了 “膨胀期望的顶峰”，正进入 “失望的低谷” 阶段。这正是世界被迫接受这一技术实际上并没有其支持者最初暗示的那么实用或可靠的时刻。</p>
</div><p>Gartner's not alone in its concern. As <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>' Head of Global Equity Research Jim Covello commented regarding generative AI in July, &#34;While the question of whether AI technology will ever deliver on the promise many people are excited about today is certainly debatable, the less debatable point is that AI technology is exceptionally expensive, and to justify those costs, the technology must be able to solve complex problems, which it isn't designed to do.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gartner 并不是唯一对此表示担忧的机构。<strong>高盛</strong> 全球股票研究负责人吉姆·科沃洛在 7 月谈到生成性人工智能时表示：“虽然人工智能技术是否能兑现许多人今天所期待的承诺无疑是一个值得讨论的问题，但更不容置疑的是，人工智能技术的成本异常高昂，而要证明这些成本的合理性，该技术必须能够解决复杂问题，而这并不是它所设计的。”</p>
</div><p>That's not to say Apple Intelligence (or any other consumer-facing sort of generative AI) is useless. It does call into question, however, just how much iPhone demand such services will be able to drive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说 Apple Intelligence（或任何其他面向消费者的生成性人工智能）毫无用处。然而，这确实引发了一个问题，即这些服务能够推动多少 iPhone 的需求。</p>
</div><h2>Anything but a rock-solid bullish thesis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>任何事情都不是坚如磐石的看涨论调</h2>
</div><p>To be clear, Apple is far from doomed. Even without any meaningful growth in the cards, it is still one of the world's biggest and most profitable companies. It still leads the smartphone market, and its services business continues to grow. In fact, the company suggests its services arm's growth will match its current annualized growth pace of just under 13% for the quarter now underway. It may even keep up that pace of growth for years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，苹果远未走向灭亡。即使没有任何实质性的增长，它仍然是全球最大和最盈利的公司之一。它依然在智能手机市场中处于领先地位，其服务业务也在持续增长。事实上，公司表示其服务部门的增长将与当前年化增长率略低于 13% 的速度相匹配，并且可能在未来几年内保持这一增长速度。</p>
</div><p>Unless the iPhone business starts picking up steam though, Apple's also likely to continue reporting merely mediocre results. Artificial intelligence looks like the only potential driver of growth, but it's far from a sure thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，除非 iPhone 业务开始提速，否则苹果可能仍会继续报告仅仅平庸的业绩。人工智能看起来是唯一可能的增长驱动力，但这并不是一个确定的事情。</p>
</div><p>There's no need to dump your Apple shares -- at least not yet. Just know that there are companies with more certain growth prospects out there right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前没有必要抛售你的苹果股票——至少现在还不需要。只需知道，目前市场上还有一些增长前景更为确定的公司。</p>
</div>

It's Official: Apple Needs AI to Be a Winner

- 苹果公司第四季度业绩平平，销售和运营收入同比增长。  
- iPhone 需求疲软，整体收入增长乏力，需依赖 Apple Intelligence 推动增长。  
- 尽管 AI 潜力巨大，但短期内未必能显著提升 iPhone 销量。

正式宣布：苹果需要依靠人工智能才能成为赢家