<p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A）（BRK.B 0.71%）的现金储备在第三季度达到了创纪录的水平。这家公司由投资者沃伦·巴菲特管理，持续削减其股票投资组合，目前在资产负债表上持有近 3250 亿美元的现金。虽然这并不一定意味着巴菲特对股市做出了方向性的判断，但这位奥马哈的先知在市场飙升至历史新高时对投资变得更加谨慎。正如他可能所说的那样，“在别人恐惧时要贪婪。”</p>
<p>他筹集现金的最大来源是 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.12%），巴菲特今年一直在持续减持。他在第三季度再次出售，将伯克希尔哈撒韦的持股减少到约 3 亿股，价值约 699 亿美元。今年早些时候，他出售了近 4 亿股，减少了公司约一半的持股。</p>
<p>尽管巴菲特减持了伯克希尔的苹果股份，但该股票仍在上涨，过去 12 个月上涨了约 25%。这是否给其他股东提供了在合适时机减持这家科技巨头的机会？让我们仔细看看，调查一下现在是否是从投资组合中出售苹果股票的好时机。</p>
<h2>收入增长缓慢，反垄断风险</h2>
<p>苹果在 10 月底公布了其 2024 财年第四季度和全年财报。这家 iPhone 制造商在这一季度首次实现了收入增长，同比增长 6%，达到 950 亿美元。这主要得益于 iPhone 的销售和公司盈利丰厚的软件服务部门。在整个财年中，软件服务收入达到 960 亿美元，较去年 85 亿美元有所增长。</p>
<p>这一季度的增长强劲，但与过去几年其他大型科技公司相比，苹果的收入依然疲软。其收入和自由现金流仍低于 2022 年中期的峰值。其大型科技同行 <strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 在过去几年中实现了比苹果更为稳定和快速的收入增长。也许正是这种收入增长放缓导致巴菲特大幅减持了他的苹果股份。</p>
<p>iPhone 仍然为苹果带来了可观的业绩。落后的则是其他部门。iPad 和可穿戴设备（手表/耳机）在上一个财年收入出现下滑，而这些产品的推出时间比 iPhone 更晚。更糟糕的是，苹果今年发布了 Vision Pro。还记得那个怪物吗？好吧，似乎很少有人记得，因为该产品对这家科技巨头来说完全是个失败和浪费。如今几乎没有人使用它。</p>
<p>另一个可能在巴菲特心中萦绕的风险是关于谷歌搜索的反垄断诉讼。Alphabet 每年向苹果支付约 200 亿美元的费用，以使谷歌搜索成为苹果设备上的默认搜索引擎。政府正在决定这是否应因反竞争担忧而被视为非法。如果裁决对这些公司不利，苹果可能会瞬间失去 200 亿美元的年利润。这是今年 1230 亿美元运营收益中的一大块。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>你应该跟随巴菲特吗？</h2>
<p>苹果的业务有很多利弊。iPhone 和软件服务推动了稳定的收益，但由于新产品线的需求疲软以及针对谷歌搜索的反垄断诉讼，存在一些下行风险。总体而言，我认为这并不会对巴菲特的决策产生太大影响。他相信——并多次表示——苹果由于其出色的品牌和加入其硬件生态系统所带来的转换成本，拥有广泛的护城河。</p>
<p>我认为巴菲特减持苹果股份的主要原因是估值。截至目前，该股票的市盈率（P/E）约为 36，这对于一家低增长的企业来说是个高得离谱的倍数。当巴菲特购买苹果时，其市盈率在 10 到 15 之间。今年早些时候，巴菲特提到他认为由于联邦政府巨大的支出赤字，美国的企业税率将会上升。</p>
<p>你应该像巴菲特一样减持苹果吗？如果这是像伯克希尔哈撒韦那样的超大持仓（在某个时刻，它占他股票投资组合的 50% 以上），那么在这个膨胀的收益倍数下，跟随巴菲特减持可能是明智的。然而，该公司仍然拥有强大的竞争优势和优秀的品牌。只要情况如此，就没有理由将你所有的持仓抛弃。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

苹果

<p>沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦已减少在苹果公司的持股，出售了大约 3 亿股，较今年早些时候的近 4 亿股有所下降。尽管如此，苹果的股票在过去一年中上涨了约 25%。苹果最近的财报显示，收入增长了 6%，主要得益于 iPhone 的销售，但整体增长仍落后于竞争对手。对收入增长缓慢、反垄断风险和高估值的担忧可能影响了巴菲特削减持仓的决定。投资者在这些发展背景下被建议考虑自己在苹果的持仓</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A)(BRK.B 0.71%) cash pile reached a record level in the third quarter. The company, run by investor Warren Buffett, keeps trimming its equity portfolio and is now sitting on close to $325 billion in cash on its balance sheet. While this does not necessarily mean Buffett is making a directional call on the stock market, the Oracle of Omaha is being more cautious with his investments today as the market shoots up to all-time highs. Be greedy when others are fearful, as he might say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A）（BRK.B 0.71%）的现金储备在第三季度达到了创纪录的水平。这家公司由投资者沃伦·巴菲特管理，持续削减其股票投资组合，目前在资产负债表上持有近 3250 亿美元的现金。虽然这并不一定意味着巴菲特对股市做出了方向性的判断，但这位奥马哈的先知在市场飙升至历史新高时对投资变得更加谨慎。正如他可能所说的那样，“在别人恐惧时要贪婪。”</p>
</div><p>His largest source of raising cash has been <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.12%), which Buffett has consistently trimmed this year. He sold yet again in the third quarter, reducing the stake for Berkshire Hathaway to an estimated 300 million shares worth around $69.9 billion. Earlier in the year, he sold close to 400 million shares, which reduced the company's stake by around half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他筹集现金的最大来源是 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.12%），巴菲特今年一直在持续减持。他在第三季度再次出售，将伯克希尔哈撒韦的持股减少到约 3 亿股，价值约 699 亿美元。今年早些时候，他出售了近 4 亿股，减少了公司约一半的持股。</p>
</div><p>Even as Buffett sold down Berkshire's Apple position, the stock kept climbing and has been up by around 25% in the last 12 months. Does that give other shareholders the opportunity to trim their positions in the technology giant at the right time? Let's take a closer look and investigate whether now is a good time to sell Apple stock from your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管巴菲特减持了伯克希尔的苹果股份，但该股票仍在上涨，过去 12 个月上涨了约 25%。这是否给其他股东提供了在合适时机减持这家科技巨头的机会？让我们仔细看看，调查一下现在是否是从投资组合中出售苹果股票的好时机。</p>
</div><h2>Slow revenue growth, antitrust risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入增长缓慢，反垄断风险</h2>
</div><p>Apple reported its Q4 and full fiscal 2024 earnings at the end of October. The maker of iPhones grew its revenue for the first time in a while during the quarter, up 6% year over year to $95 billion. This was driven by iPhone sales and the company's lucrative software services division. For the full fiscal year, software services revenue hit $96 billion, up from $85 billion a year prior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在 10 月底公布了其 2024 财年第四季度和全年财报。这家 iPhone 制造商在这一季度首次实现了收入增长，同比增长 6%，达到 950 亿美元。这主要得益于 iPhone 的销售和公司盈利丰厚的软件服务部门。在整个财年中，软件服务收入达到 960 亿美元，较去年 85 亿美元有所增长。</p>
</div><p>Growth was strong this quarter, but Apple's revenue has been anemic compared to the rest of the big technology companies over the last few years. Its revenue and free cash flow are still below their peaks at the midpoint of calendar 2022. Its big technology peers, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, have posted much more consistent and faster revenue growth than Apple in the last few years. Perhaps this revenue growth slowdown is why Buffett has greatly trimmed his Apple position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一季度的增长强劲，但与过去几年其他大型科技公司相比，苹果的收入依然疲软。其收入和自由现金流仍低于 2022 年中期的峰值。其大型科技同行 <strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 在过去几年中实现了比苹果更为稳定和快速的收入增长。也许正是这种收入增长放缓导致巴菲特大幅减持了他的苹果股份。</p>
</div><p>The iPhone is still putting up wonderful numbers for Apple. It is the other divisions that are lagging. The iPad and wearables (watches/headphones) segments saw declining revenue last fiscal year, and these are newer products than the iPhone. Even worse, Apple released the Vision Pro this year. Remember that monstrosity? Well, it seems that few people do, as the product has been a total flop and money waster for the tech giant. Few people are using it today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 仍然为苹果带来了可观的业绩。落后的则是其他部门。iPad 和可穿戴设备（手表/耳机）在上一个财年收入出现下滑，而这些产品的推出时间比 iPhone 更晚。更糟糕的是，苹果今年发布了 Vision Pro。还记得那个怪物吗？好吧，似乎很少有人记得，因为该产品对这家科技巨头来说完全是个失败和浪费。如今几乎没有人使用它。</p>
</div><p>Another risk that could be on Buffett's mind is the antitrust lawsuit over Google Search. Alphabet pays Apple an estimated $20 billion annual fee for Google Search to be the default search engine of choice on Apple devices. The government is deciding whether this should be made illegal due to anti-competition concerns. If the decision falls against the companies, Apple could see $20 billion in annual profits evaporate in an instant. That is a good chunk of the $123 billion in operating earnings generated this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能在巴菲特心中萦绕的风险是关于谷歌搜索的反垄断诉讼。Alphabet 每年向苹果支付约 200 亿美元的费用，以使谷歌搜索成为苹果设备上的默认搜索引擎。政府正在决定这是否应因反竞争担忧而被视为非法。如果裁决对这些公司不利，苹果可能会瞬间失去 200 亿美元的年利润。这是今年 1230 亿美元运营收益中的一大块。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Should you follow Buffett?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该跟随巴菲特吗？</h2>
</div><p>There are a lot of puts and takes with Apple's business. IPhone and software services are driving stable earnings, but there is some downside risk due to weak demand from any of its new product lines, along with the antitrust lawsuit against Google Search. On the whole, I don't think this factors too much in Buffett's decision-making. He believes -- and has said many times -- that Apple has a wide moat due to its fantastic brand and the switching costs that come with joining its hardware ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的业务有很多利弊。iPhone 和软件服务推动了稳定的收益，但由于新产品线的需求疲软以及针对谷歌搜索的反垄断诉讼，存在一些下行风险。总体而言，我认为这并不会对巴菲特的决策产生太大影响。他相信——并多次表示——苹果由于其出色的品牌和加入其硬件生态系统所带来的转换成本，拥有广泛的护城河。</p>
</div><p>I believe the main reason Buffett has trimmed his Apple position is valuation. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 36 as of this writing, which is a nosebleed multiple for a low-growth business. When Buffett was buying Apple, it had a P/E of between 10 and 15. Buffett mentioned earlier this year that he felt corporate tax rates in the United States would go up due to the huge spending deficit of the federal government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为巴菲特减持苹果股份的主要原因是估值。截至目前，该股票的市盈率（P/E）约为 36，这对于一家低增长的企业来说是个高得离谱的倍数。当巴菲特购买苹果时，其市盈率在 10 到 15 之间。今年早些时候，巴菲特提到他认为由于联邦政府巨大的支出赤字，美国的企业税率将会上升。</p>
</div><p>Should you trim Apple along with Buffett? If it is an outsized position like at Berkshire Hathaway (at one point, it was over 50% of his stock portfolio), then it might be smart to trim at this inflated earnings multiple along with Buffett. However, the company still has a strong competitive advantage and a great brand. As long as that is the case, there's no reason to dump your entire position to the curb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你应该像巴菲特一样减持苹果吗？如果这是像伯克希尔哈撒韦那样的超大持仓（在某个时刻，它占他股票投资组合的 50% 以上），那么在这个膨胀的收益倍数下，跟随巴菲特减持可能是明智的。然而，该公司仍然拥有强大的竞争优势和优秀的品牌。只要情况如此，就没有理由将你所有的持仓抛弃。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Cuts His Stake in Apple (Again)

- 伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金储备在第三季度创下新高，接近 1000 亿美元。  
- 巴菲特持续削减苹果股份，第三季度持股降至约 3 亿股。  
- 苹果面临收入增长放缓和反垄断风险，但仍具竞争优势。  

沃伦·巴菲特再次减持了他在苹果公司的股份