<p><strong>开市客</strong>(COST 3.27%) 和 <strong>家得宝</strong>(HD 1.62%) 是全球最大的零售商之一。自 1980 年代各自首次公开募股以来，它们在回报股东方面表现出色，长期复合资本增长。</p>
<p>但是，这两只零售股票中哪一只现在更值得购买呢？让我们仔细看看每一只，以得出一个明智的结论。</p>
<h2>支持开市客的理由</h2>
<p>开市客以以非常低的价格销售高质量商品而闻名，并且拥有非常慷慨的客户友好退货政策。从表面上看，这并没有使其在竞争激烈的零售行业中脱颖而出。但开市客特别之处在于其基于会员的模式。只有支付年费的消费者才有权在开市客的 861 个仓库中购物。</p>
<p>在最新的财政年度（截至 9 月 1 日），该业务产生了 48 亿美元的会员费收入。这为公司提供了高利润、可预测和持续的收入来源。更好的是，它推动了客户忠诚度。家庭会优先选择在开市客购物，因为他们已经支付了年费。</p>
<p>开市客在零售行业中拥有非常强大和持久的竞争优势。公司具备规模优势。在第四季度，净销售额达到 782 亿美元，成为全球第三大零售商。这个巨大的数字，加上开市客销售的库存单位数量远低于竞争对手，使其在与供应商的谈判中拥有巨大的杠杆。这导致消费者始终享有低价。</p>
<p>开市客的盈利能力令人印象深刻。过去五年，该业务的净收入以 15% 的复合年增长率增长。这使得管理团队能够支付偶尔的特别股息，最近一次是在今年 1 月每位股东支付 15 美元。</p>
<h2>支持家得宝的理由</h2>
<p>家得宝以 1520 亿美元的过去 12 个月收入成为全球领先的家居改善零售商，远超第二名的 <strong>Lowe's</strong>。它是一个值得信赖的品牌，覆盖广泛，拥有超过 2000 家遍布美国的门店。此外，家得宝的巨大规模、完善的供应链和全渠道能力，不仅使其拥有丰富的产品种类，还能以最方便的方式为客户提供服务。</p>
<p>不可否认的是，家得宝在当前的宏观环境中面临挑战，利率上升和消费者对大宗商品购买的犹豫是其主要特征。预计同店销售在当前财政年度将下降 3% 至 4%。</p>
<p>然而，该业务受益于有利的行业顺风，诸如老化的住房存量和持续的住房库存短缺。这应该在长期内支持家得宝的稳定需求。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，该公司的资本配置政策颇具吸引力。在 2023 财政年度，家得宝回购了近 80 亿美元的股票，并支付了 84 亿美元的股息。</p>
<h2>现在哪个更值得购买？</h2>
<p>家得宝可能处于比开市客更困难的境地，后者似乎在宏观环境下依然运转良好。然而，家居改善巨头的估值更具吸引力。其股票的市盈率 (P/E) 为 27，不到开市客 57 的一半。事实上，开市客的市盈率在本世纪从未如此之高，清楚地表明市场对这家仓储俱乐部运营商的极度乐观。</p>
<p>我认为，计划以三到五年的时间范围买入并持有股票的投资者，通过选择家得宝将增加获得足够回报的机会。我相信其财务表现将回归历史趋势。同时，开市客的高市盈率为投资回报创造了重大阻力。</p>

开市客

家得宝

<p>开市客和家得宝是两家领先的零售商，各自拥有独特的优势。开市客的会员模式产生了可预测的收入并促进了客户忠诚度，而家得宝作为顶尖的家居改善零售商，面临高利率带来的挑战，但受益于行业趋势。尽管开市客的盈利能力和增长令人印象深刻，家得宝以较低的市盈率提供了更具吸引力的估值。对于长期投资者而言，家得宝由于其财务复苏的潜力，可能提供更好的回报，而开市客的高估值则带来了风险</p>

<p><strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 3.27%) and <strong>Home Depot</strong>(HD 1.62%) are two of the largest retailers on the planet. Since their respective initial public offerings in the 1980s, they have done a great job rewarding their shareholders, compounding capital over the very long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>开市客</strong>(COST 3.27%) 和 <strong>家得宝</strong>(HD 1.62%) 是全球最大的零售商之一。自 1980 年代各自首次公开募股以来，它们在回报股东方面表现出色，长期复合资本增长。</p>
</div><p>But which of these two retail stocks is the better one to buy right now? Let's take a closer look at each to come up with an informed conclusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，这两只零售股票中哪一只现在更值得购买呢？让我们仔细看看每一只，以得出一个明智的结论。</p>
</div><h2>The case for Costco</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>支持开市客的理由</h2>
</div><p>Costco is known for selling high-quality merchandise at very low prices, with a very generous customer-friendly return policy. On the surface, this doesn't help it stand out in the competitive retail sector. But what makes Costco special is its membership-based model. Only consumers who pay an annual fee have the right to shop at one of Costco's 861 warehouses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客以以非常低的价格销售高质量商品而闻名，并且拥有非常慷慨的客户友好退货政策。从表面上看，这并没有使其在竞争激烈的零售行业中脱颖而出。但开市客特别之处在于其基于会员的模式。只有支付年费的消费者才有权在开市客的 861 个仓库中购物。</p>
</div><p>In the latest fiscal year (ended Sept. 1), the business generated $4.8 billion in membership fee income. This provides the company with a high-margin, predictable, and recurring revenue stream. Even better, it drives customer loyalty. Households will prioritize shopping at Costco because they're already paying annual dues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最新的财政年度（截至 9 月 1 日），该业务产生了 48 亿美元的会员费收入。这为公司提供了高利润、可预测和持续的收入来源。更好的是，它推动了客户忠诚度。家庭会优先选择在开市客购物，因为他们已经支付了年费。</p>
</div><p>Costco has a very powerful and durable competitive strength in the retail sector. The company possesses scale advantages. With net sales totaling $78.2 billion in Q4, this is the world's third-biggest retailer. That huge figure, coupled with the fact that Costco sells a much lower number of stock-keeping units than competitors, gives it tremendous negotiating leverage with its suppliers. This leads to constantly low prices for consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客在零售行业中拥有非常强大和持久的竞争优势。公司具备规模优势。在第四季度，净销售额达到 782 亿美元，成为全球第三大零售商。这个巨大的数字，加上开市客销售的库存单位数量远低于竞争对手，使其在与供应商的谈判中拥有巨大的杠杆。这导致消费者始终享有低价。</p>
</div><p>It's hard not to come away impressed with Costco's profitability. The business has increased its net income at a compound annual rate of 15% in the past five years. This affords the leadership team the ability to pay occasional special dividends, the most recent being $15 for each shareholder in January of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客的盈利能力令人印象深刻。过去五年，该业务的净收入以 15% 的复合年增长率增长。这使得管理团队能够支付偶尔的特别股息，最近一次是在今年 1 月每位股东支付 15 美元。</p>
</div><h2>The case for Home Depot</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>支持家得宝的理由</h2>
</div><p>With trailing-12-month revenue of $152 billion, Home Depot is the world's leading home improvement retailer, well ahead of second-place <strong>Lowe's</strong>. It is a trusted brand with broad reach, as indicated by its network of over 2,000 stores scattered across the U.S. Plus, Home Depot's massive scale, with a developed supply chain and omnichannel capabilities, means it not only has a deep product assortment, but also has the ability to serve customers in ways most convenient for them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝以 1520 亿美元的过去 12 个月收入成为全球领先的家居改善零售商，远超第二名的 <strong>Lowe's</strong>。它是一个值得信赖的品牌，覆盖广泛，拥有超过 2000 家遍布美国的门店。此外，家得宝的巨大规模、完善的供应链和全渠道能力，不仅使其拥有丰富的产品种类，还能以最方便的方式为客户提供服务。</p>
</div><p>There's no denying that Home Depot has struggled in the current macro landscape, one characterized by higher interest rates and consumer hesitancy to buy big-ticket items. Same-store sales are expected to drop 3% to 4% in the current fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否认的是，家得宝在当前的宏观环境中面临挑战，利率上升和消费者对大宗商品购买的犹豫是其主要特征。预计同店销售在当前财政年度将下降 3% 至 4%。</p>
</div><p>However, the business benefits from favorable industry tailwinds, like an aging housing stock and an ongoing housing inventory shortage. This should support durable demand for Home Depot over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该业务受益于有利的行业顺风，诸如老化的住房存量和持续的住房库存短缺。这应该在长期内支持家得宝的稳定需求。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth noting the company's attractive capital allocation policy. In fiscal 2023, Home Depot repurchased almost $8 billion worth of shares. And it paid out $8.4 billion in dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，该公司的资本配置政策颇具吸引力。在 2023 财政年度，家得宝回购了近 80 亿美元的股票，并支付了 84 亿美元的股息。</p>
</div><h2>Which is the better buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在哪个更值得购买？</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot might be in a more difficult spot than Costco, the latter of which seems to be humming along nicely regardless of the macro environment. However, the home improvement giant trades at a much more compelling valuation. Its stock can be purchased for a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27, less than half that of Costco's 57. In fact, Costco's steep P/E multiple has never been higher this century, a clear indication of the market's extreme optimism surrounding the warehouse club operator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝可能处于比开市客更困难的境地，后者似乎在宏观环境下依然运转良好。然而，家居改善巨头的估值更具吸引力。其股票的市盈率 (P/E) 为 27，不到开市客 57 的一半。事实上，开市客的市盈率在本世纪从未如此之高，清楚地表明市场对这家仓储俱乐部运营商的极度乐观。</p>
</div><p>Investors who plan to buy and hold stocks with a three- to five-year time horizon will increase their chances of producing adequate returns by choosing Home Depot, in my opinion. I have confidence that its financial performance will revert back to historical trends. At the same time, Costco's high P/E ratio creates a major headwind for investment returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为，计划以三到五年的时间范围买入并持有股票的投资者，通过选择家得宝将增加获得足够回报的机会。我相信其财务表现将回归历史趋势。同时，开市客的高市盈率为投资回报创造了重大阻力。</p>
</div>

目前最值得购买的股票：开市客 vs. 家得宝