<p>氢能常被誉为化石燃料的理想绿色替代品，因为它可以利用风能或太阳能等可再生能源来生产分解水所需的电力，将水分解为氢和氧的组成部分。提取的氢气随后用于驱动发动机，燃烧后唯一的副产品是水。然而，作为理想燃料，这并不足以激励过去十年能源行业这一领域的公司，许多市场上的氢气股票都未能取得成功。</p>
<p>各行业在采用氢能方面进展缓慢，因为目前生产氢燃料的成本高于提取和加工石油或天然气的成本，扩展现有电网的成本效益也高于建设新的氢基础设施。通货膨胀和高企的利率使得氢项目的融资成本更高，吸引力更低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTczNDIvYS1zZW1pLXRydWNrLWJlaW5nLWNoYXJnZWQtYXQtYS1oZHlyb2dlbi1zdGF0aW9uLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTczNDIvYS1zZW1pLXRydWNrLWJlaW5nLWNoYXJnZWQtYXQtYS1oZHlyb2dlbi1zdGF0aW9uLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>但随着氢技术的进步和宏观经济环境的改善（包括利率下降），使用氢能的节省可能会抵消这些初始成本。如果发生这种情况，许多氢产业可能会复苏。Fortune Business Insights 预计，氢燃料电池市场将在 2024 年至 2032 年间以 30% 的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长，而 Research Nester 预计氢汽车市场将在 2025 年至 2037 年间以 45% 的 CAGR 扩张。</p>
<p>我们应该对这些乐观的估计持谨慎态度，但来自这两个行业的两只不受欢迎的股票——<strong>Plug Power</strong>（PLUG -3.40%）和 <strong>Nikola</strong>（NKLA 7.62%）——在这些顺风因素的推动下可能会大幅上涨。这两只股票都很波动，但它们有潜力将 200 美元的 modest 投资在未来几年内变成几千美元。</p>
<h2>1. Plug Power</h2>
<p>Plug Power 主要为仓库和配送中心提供氢燃料电池和充电服务。到目前为止，它已部署超过 69,000 个燃料电池系统和 250 个加氢站，其主要客户包括 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，并且是全球最大的液氢单一买家。</p>
<p>Plug Power 的收入在 2022 年增长了 40%，在 2023 年增长了 27%。大部分增长是由于两项大型收购，这扩展了其低温设备部门，并抵消了其核心氢燃料电池业务的缓慢增长——由于宏观逆风抑制了市场对昂贵新氢项目的需求。由于整合这些收购，其净亏损在这两年中也有所扩大。</p>
<p>但从 2023 年到 2026 年，分析师预计 Plug 的收入将以 25% 的 CAGR 增长，同时缩小净亏损。美国能源部（DOE）最近还向其授予了一笔新的 16.6 亿美元贷款，用于建设多达六个新的绿色氢能生产设施。</p>
<p>以 26.7 亿美元的企业价值计算，Plug 的股票在明年的销售额的 2.3 倍下看起来被低估。它仍然是一只高度投机的股票，但随着越来越多的公司用其氢充电系统升级物流网络，它可能会再次上涨。过去 12 个月，其内部人士购买的股票数量几乎是出售数量的五倍，挪威的挪威银行最近将其在公司的股份增加到近 8%。</p>
<h2>2. Nikola</h2>
<p>Nikola 生产电动半挂卡车。最初，它销售电池驱动的电动卡车（BEVs），但今年开始交付其首批氢燃料电池电动卡车（FCEVs）。在 2020 年公开上市后，它的开局并不顺利：它大幅未能实现最初的交付目标，其创始人特雷弗·米尔顿在 2022 年因证券和电信欺诈被定罪，2023 年一系列电池火灾迫使其召回所有 BEVs。它也处于亏损状态，过去三年几乎将其股份数量增加了四倍以筹集更多现金，并且在新兴的电动半挂卡车市场面临来自 <strong>戴姆勒卡车</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的激烈竞争。</p>
<p>但在所有这些挑战中，出现了一些积极的迹象。由于解决电池问题，其 BEV 销售仍处于暂停状态，但在 2024 年前九个月交付了 203 辆 FCEVs。预计全年交付 300-350 辆 FCEVs，分析师预计其收入将增长三倍以上，达到 1.12 亿美元。对于 2025 年，他们预计 Nikola 的收入将接近三倍，达到 3.28 亿美元，因为它加大 FCEV 的发货量并重启 BEV 业务。Nikola 还计划与其合作伙伴 Voltera 在 2026 年前在美国建立 60 个氢充电站网络。</p>
<p>以 3.38 亿美元的企业价值计算，Nikola 的股票在明年的销售额的 1 倍左右看起来非常便宜。其内部人士在过去 12 个月购买的股票数量是出售数量的 15 倍，因此它可能成为氢汽车市场的一个诱人长线投资。</p>

普拉格能源

NKLA

NKLAQ

<p>这篇文章讨论了两只有前景的氢能源股票：普拉格能源和 Nikola。氢能被视为化石燃料的绿色替代品，但由于生产成本高和宏观经济挑战，采用进展缓慢。然而，随着技术的进步和经济环境的稳定，氢市场预计将显著增长。普拉格能源提供氢燃料电池，预计将实现收入增长，并获得了一笔可观的贷款用于扩张。Nikola 生产氢燃料电池电动卡车，尽管面临过去的挑战，但也预计将增加生产和收入。这两只股票被认为具有投机性，但有潜在的显著回报</p>

<p>Hydrogen power is often hailed as the ideal green alternative to fossil fuels since it can be produced using renewable energy like wind or solar to produce the electricity needed to split water into its component parts of hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen that is extracted is then used to power an engine and the only byproduct of the burned fuel is water. But being an ideal fuel hasn't been enough of an incentive for companies in this sector of the energy industry over the past decade, and many of the market's hydrogen stocks fizzled out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>氢能常被誉为化石燃料的理想绿色替代品，因为它可以利用风能或太阳能等可再生能源来生产分解水所需的电力，将水分解为氢和氧的组成部分。提取的氢气随后用于驱动发动机，燃烧后唯一的副产品是水。然而，作为理想燃料，这并不足以激励过去十年能源行业这一领域的公司，许多市场上的氢气股票都未能取得成功。</p>
</div><p>Industries have been slow to adopt hydrogen power because it currently costs more to produce hydrogen fuel than it does to extract and process oil or natural gas, and it was more cost-efficient to expand existing electrical grids than to build new hydrogen infrastructure. Inflation and elevated interest rates made hydrogen projects more expensive to fund and even less appealing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各行业在采用氢能方面进展缓慢，因为目前生产氢燃料的成本高于提取和加工石油或天然气的成本，扩展现有电网的成本效益也高于建设新的氢基础设施。通货膨胀和高企的利率使得氢项目的融资成本更高，吸引力更低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTczNDIvYS1zZW1pLXRydWNrLWJlaW5nLWNoYXJnZWQtYXQtYS1oZHlyb2dlbi1zdGF0aW9uLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F797342%2Fa-semi-truck-being-charged-at-a-hdyrogen-station.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But as hydrogen technologies improve and the macroeconomic environment improves (including interest rate drops), the savings from using hydrogen could offset those initial costs. If that happens, many hydrogen industries could recover. Fortune Business Insights estimates the hydrogen fuel cell market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2024 to 2032, while Research Nester expects the hydrogen vehicle market to expand at a CAGR of 45% from 2025 to 2037.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着氢技术的进步和宏观经济环境的改善（包括利率下降），使用氢能的节省可能会抵消这些初始成本。如果发生这种情况，许多氢产业可能会复苏。Fortune Business Insights 预计，氢燃料电池市场将在 2024 年至 2032 年间以 30% 的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长，而 Research Nester 预计氢汽车市场将在 2025 年至 2037 年间以 45% 的 CAGR 扩张。</p>
</div><p>We should take those bullish estimates with a grain of salt, but two unloved stocks from those two industries -- <strong>Plug Power</strong>(PLUG -3.40%) and <strong>Nikola</strong>(NKLA 7.62%) -- could soar higher as those tailwinds kick in. Both of these stocks are volatile, but they have the potential to turn a modest $200 investment into a few thousand dollars over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们应该对这些乐观的估计持谨慎态度，但来自这两个行业的两只不受欢迎的股票——<strong>Plug Power</strong>（PLUG -3.40%）和 <strong>Nikola</strong>（NKLA 7.62%）——在这些顺风因素的推动下可能会大幅上涨。这两只股票都很波动，但它们有潜力将 200 美元的 modest 投资在未来几年内变成几千美元。</p>
</div><h2>1. Plug Power</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. Plug Power</h2>
</div><p>Plug Power mainly provides hydrogen fuel cells and charging services for forklifts in warehouses and fulfillment centers. It's deployed over 69,000 fuel cell systems and 250 fueling stations so far, its top customers include <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Walmart</strong>, and it's the world's largest single buyer of liquid hydrogen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Plug Power 主要为仓库和配送中心提供氢燃料电池和充电服务。到目前为止，它已部署超过 69,000 个燃料电池系统和 250 个加氢站，其主要客户包括 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，并且是全球最大的液氢单一买家。</p>
</div><p>Plug Power's revenue rose 40% in 2022 and 27% in 2023. Most of that growth was driven by two big acquisitions which expanded its cryogenic equipment unit and offset the slower growth of its core hydrogen fuel cell business -- which struggled as the macro headwinds curbed the market's appetite for expensive new hydrogen projects. Its net losses also widened throughout both years as it integrated those acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Plug Power 的收入在 2022 年增长了 40%，在 2023 年增长了 27%。大部分增长是由于两项大型收购，这扩展了其低温设备部门，并抵消了其核心氢燃料电池业务的缓慢增长——由于宏观逆风抑制了市场对昂贵新氢项目的需求。由于整合这些收购，其净亏损在这两年中也有所扩大。</p>
</div><p>But from 2023 to 2026, analysts expect Plug's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25% as it narrows its net losses. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) also recently granted it a new $1.66 billion loan to build up to six new green hydrogen energy production facilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但从 2023 年到 2026 年，分析师预计 Plug 的收入将以 25% 的 CAGR 增长，同时缩小净亏损。美国能源部（DOE）最近还向其授予了一笔新的 16.6 亿美元贷款，用于建设多达六个新的绿色氢能生产设施。</p>
</div><p>With an enterprise value of $2.67 billion, Plug's stock looks undervalued at 2.3 times next year's sales. It's still a highly speculative stock, but it could rally again as more companies upgrade their logistics networks with its hydrogen charging systems. Its insiders also bought nearly five times as many shares as they sold over the past 12 months, and Norway's Norges Bank recently increased its stake in the company to nearly 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 26.7 亿美元的企业价值计算，Plug 的股票在明年的销售额的 2.3 倍下看起来被低估。它仍然是一只高度投机的股票，但随着越来越多的公司用其氢充电系统升级物流网络，它可能会再次上涨。过去 12 个月，其内部人士购买的股票数量几乎是出售数量的五倍，挪威的挪威银行最近将其在公司的股份增加到近 8%。</p>
</div><h2>2. Nikola</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Nikola</h2>
</div><p>Nikola produces electric semi-trucks. It initially sold battery-powered electric trucks (BEVs), but it started delivering its first hydrogen fuel-cell electric trucks (FCEVs) this year. It had a rocky start after its public debut in 2020: it broadly missed its original delivery targets, its founder Trevor Milton was convicted of securities and wire fraud in 2022, and a series of battery fires in 2023 forced it to recall all of its BEVs. It's also unprofitable, it nearly quadrupled its share count over the past three years to raise more cash, and it faces stiff competition from <strong>Daimler Truck</strong> and <strong>Tesla</strong> in the nascent electric semi-truck market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nikola 生产电动半挂卡车。最初，它销售电池驱动的电动卡车（BEVs），但今年开始交付其首批氢燃料电池电动卡车（FCEVs）。在 2020 年公开上市后，它的开局并不顺利：它大幅未能实现最初的交付目标，其创始人特雷弗·米尔顿在 2022 年因证券和电信欺诈被定罪，2023 年一系列电池火灾迫使其召回所有 BEVs。它也处于亏损状态，过去三年几乎将其股份数量增加了四倍以筹集更多现金，并且在新兴的电动半挂卡车市场面临来自 <strong>戴姆勒卡车</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的激烈竞争。</p>
</div><p>But amid all of those challenges, a few green shoots are appearing. Its BEV sales are still suspended as it resolves its battery issues, but it delivered 203 FCEVs in the first nine months of 2024. It expects to deliver 300-350 FCEVs for the full year, and analysts expect its revenue to more than triple to $112 million. For 2025, they expect Nikola's revenue to nearly triple to $328 million as it ramps up its FCEV shipments and restarts its BEV business. Nikola also aims to build a network of 60 hydrogen charging stations across the U.S. with its partner Voltera by 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在所有这些挑战中，出现了一些积极的迹象。由于解决电池问题，其 BEV 销售仍处于暂停状态，但在 2024 年前九个月交付了 203 辆 FCEVs。预计全年交付 300-350 辆 FCEVs，分析师预计其收入将增长三倍以上，达到 1.12 亿美元。对于 2025 年，他们预计 Nikola 的收入将接近三倍，达到 3.28 亿美元，因为它加大 FCEV 的发货量并重启 BEV 业务。Nikola 还计划与其合作伙伴 Voltera 在 2026 年前在美国建立 60 个氢充电站网络。</p>
</div><p>With an enterprise value of $338 million, Nikola's stock looks dirt cheap at roughly 1 time next year's sales. Its insiders also bought 15 times as many shares as they sold over the past 12 months -- so it might be a tempting longshot play on the hydrogen vehicle market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 3.38 亿美元的企业价值计算，Nikola 的股票在明年的销售额的 1 倍左右看起来非常便宜。其内部人士在过去 12 个月购买的股票数量是出售数量的 15 倍，因此它可能成为氢汽车市场的一个诱人长线投资。</p>
</div>

现在用 200 美元购买的两只简单明了的氢能源股票