<p>人工智能（AI）为许多企业注入了新的活力，使科技公司能够提升现有产品和服务，并找到新的增长方式。投资者急于投资那些利用这些机会的股票。科技巨头 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT 0.51%）就是一个很好的例子。</p>
<p>随着新推出的 AI 产品带来了更强的销售和利润，该公司的增长在最近几个季度加速。目前，该公司的市值为 3.1 万亿美元，因为对 AI 的投资似乎为企业带来了回报，至少目前是这样。</p>
<p>但是，如果仔细查看该公司最近的财报，你会发现一个需要密切关注的趋势。因为如果这种趋势持续下去，可能会在不久的将来给这只科技股带来麻烦。</p>
<h2>利润增长放缓</h2>
<p>如今，许多参与 AI 的公司面临的一个重大挑战是，他们在积极支出，不仅是为了发展新的 AI 项目，还为了推广和营销这些项目。而且，回报并不总是对投资者显而易见。</p>
<p>在 Microsoft 最近的财报中，截至 9 月 30 日的期间，其净利润增长约为 11%。这比之前的增长速度要慢，也慢于收入的增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 净收入（季度同比增长），数据来源于 YCharts；YOY = 年同比。</p>
<p>有警告迹象表明，该公司的 AI 可能并没有那么令人印象深刻。<strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席执行官 Marc Benioff 将 Microsoft 的 AI 产品 Copilot 与该科技巨头在 1990 年代推出的助手 Clippy 进行了比较，后者因其干扰性大于帮助性而声名狼藉。</p>
<p>根据最近的一项 CNBC 调查，大约一半表示正在使用 Copilot 的公司，要么对是否将其部署给所有员工犹豫不决，要么仍在测试该产品。这并不是投资者和分析师所希望的那种一帆风顺的产品。</p>
<h2>如果增长率进一步下降，Microsoft 的股票可能看起来更贵</h2>
<p>Microsoft 的股票交易价格约为其过去收益的 35 倍，这并不算特别昂贵，因为 <strong>科技精选行业 SPDR 基金</strong> 的平均股票目前的倍数接近 42 倍。但由于今年强劲的盈利数字，科技股的估值一直处于高位，如果它们的增长放缓，这些高估值股票可能会面临修正，而 Microsoft 也不例外。</p>
<p>技术研究公司 <strong>Gartner</strong> 之前预测，许多公司可能最终会放弃 AI 项目，因为他们难以证明这些项目的价值。Gartner 认为，到明年年底，最多有 30% 的生成性 AI 项目将被放弃。</p>
<p>随着可能的经济衰退临近，公司缩减不必要的支出，AI 投资可能会受到冲击，成为削减成本的易受攻击目标。</p>
<p>如果那种情况发生，Microsoft 明年可能面临更大的逆风，这可能会导致其盈利增长率进一步放缓。投资者似乎已经对该股票感到不安：截至周一，其年初至今的涨幅仅为 11%——远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 今年令人印象深刻的 26% 的增值。</p>
<h2>你应该购买 Microsoft 吗？</h2>
<p>如果你在寻找一只至少可以持有几年的股票，Microsoft 仍然可以是一个优秀的投资。该业务稳健，拥有多个不同的业务板块，包括游戏和云计算，这可以确保其在长期内继续增长；这不仅仅是一只 AI 股票。</p>
<p>但考虑到其高估值和伴随这种溢价的增长预期，想要购买该股票的投资者应该为短期内可能的修正做好准备。这不是一只便宜的股票，目前几乎没有安全边际。</p>

微软

<p>微软最近的财报显示出一个令人担忧的趋势：利润增长放缓，仅增长了 11%，低于收入增长。尽管市场市值强劲且在人工智能方面进行了投资，但对其人工智能产品 Copilot 的有效性产生了担忧。分析师警告称，如果增长持续下降，微软的股票（目前交易价格为过去 12 个月盈利的 35 倍）可能面临修正。随着潜在的人工智能项目被放弃和即将到来的经济衰退，投资者应保持谨慎，因为年初至今的收益显著低于标准普尔 500 指数的表现</p>

<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) has reenergized many businesses, allowing tech companies to enhance existing products and services and find new ways to grow their operations. Investors have been eager to jump on stocks that are taking advantage of these opportunities. Tech giant <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.51%) is an excellent example of that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）为许多企业注入了新的活力，使科技公司能够提升现有产品和服务，并找到新的增长方式。投资者急于投资那些利用这些机会的股票。科技巨头 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT 0.51%）就是一个很好的例子。</p>
</div><p>Its growth has accelerated in recent quarters as new AI-infused products are resulting in stronger sales and profits. Today, the company has a market cap of $3.1 trillion as investing into AI appeared to pay off for the business, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着新推出的 AI 产品带来了更强的销售和利润，该公司的增长在最近几个季度加速。目前，该公司的市值为 3.1 万亿美元，因为对 AI 的投资似乎为企业带来了回报，至少目前是这样。</p>
</div><p>But if you take a closer look at the company's recent earnings report, there is a trend you'll want to keep a close eye on. Because if it continues, it could lead to trouble for the tech stock in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，如果仔细查看该公司最近的财报，你会发现一个需要密切关注的趋势。因为如果这种趋势持续下去，可能会在不久的将来给这只科技股带来麻烦。</p>
</div><h2>Profit growth is slowing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利润增长放缓</h2>
</div><p>A big challenge for many companies involved with AI these days is they are spending aggressively to not just grow their new AI initiatives but to also promote and market them. And the payoff isn't always evident to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，许多参与 AI 的公司面临的一个重大挑战是，他们在积极支出，不仅是为了发展新的 AI 项目，还为了推广和营销这些项目。而且，回报并不总是对投资者显而易见。</p>
</div><p>In Microsoft's most recent earnings report, for the period ended Sept. 30, its bottom line grew by around 11%. That's slower than in previous periods, and it's also slower than revenue increased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Microsoft 最近的财报中，截至 9 月 30 日的期间，其净利润增长约为 11%。这比之前的增长速度要慢，也慢于收入的增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT net income (quarterly YoY growth), data by YCharts; YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 净收入（季度同比增长），数据来源于 YCharts；YOY = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>There are warning signs that the company's AI may not be all that impressive. <strong>Salesforce</strong> CEO Marc Benioff has compared Microsoft's AI product, Copilot, to an assistant the tech giant introduced in the 1990s, Clippy, which gained a reputation for being more intrusive than helpful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有警告迹象表明，该公司的 AI 可能并没有那么令人印象深刻。<strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席执行官 Marc Benioff 将 Microsoft 的 AI 产品 Copilot 与该科技巨头在 1990 年代推出的助手 Clippy 进行了比较，后者因其干扰性大于帮助性而声名狼藉。</p>
</div><p>And according to a recent CNBC survey, roughly half of companies that said they are using Copilot are either on the fence about whether to deploy it to all their employees, or they are still testing the product. It hasn't been the slam-dunk offering that investors and analysts may have been hoping it would be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最近的一项 CNBC 调查，大约一半表示正在使用 Copilot 的公司，要么对是否将其部署给所有员工犹豫不决，要么仍在测试该产品。这并不是投资者和分析师所希望的那种一帆风顺的产品。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's stock could look even more expensive if its growth rate declines further</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果增长率进一步下降，Microsoft 的股票可能看起来更贵</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's stock is trading at around 35 times its trailing earnings, which isn't terribly expensive given that the average stock in the <strong>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> is at a multiple of nearly 42 right now. But tech stocks have been at inflated valuations due to their strong earnings numbers this year, and should they slow down, there could be a correction around the corner for these highly valued stocks -- and Microsoft is no exception.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Microsoft 的股票交易价格约为其过去收益的 35 倍，这并不算特别昂贵，因为 <strong>科技精选行业 SPDR 基金</strong> 的平均股票目前的倍数接近 42 倍。但由于今年强劲的盈利数字，科技股的估值一直处于高位，如果它们的增长放缓，这些高估值股票可能会面临修正，而 Microsoft 也不例外。</p>
</div><p>Technological research company <strong>Gartner</strong> previously forecast that many companies may end up abandoning AI projects as they struggle to prove that the initiatives are worthwhile. Gartner believes that as many as 30% of generative AI projects will end up abandoned by the end of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术研究公司 <strong>Gartner</strong> 之前预测，许多公司可能最终会放弃 AI 项目，因为他们难以证明这些项目的价值。Gartner 认为，到明年年底，最多有 30% 的生成性 AI 项目将被放弃。</p>
</div><p>With a possible recession on the horizon and companies scaling back unnecessary expenditures, AI investments could come under fire and be easy targets for cost reductions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着可能的经济衰退临近，公司缩减不必要的支出，AI 投资可能会受到冲击，成为削减成本的易受攻击目标。</p>
</div><p>Should that happen, Microsoft may face even greater headwinds next year, and that could be problematic because it may result in an even slower earnings growth rate. Investors already appear to be apprehensive about the stock: Its year-to-date gains as of Monday were just 11% -- well below the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s impressive 26% increase in value this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果那种情况发生，Microsoft 明年可能面临更大的逆风，这可能会导致其盈利增长率进一步放缓。投资者似乎已经对该股票感到不安：截至周一，其年初至今的涨幅仅为 11%——远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 今年令人印象深刻的 26% 的增值。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Microsoft?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该购买 Microsoft 吗？</h2>
</div><p>If you're looking for a stock to hold for at least a few years, Microsoft can still be an excellent investment. The business is robust and has many different segments, including gaming and cloud computing, which can ensure it continues growing over the very long haul; this isn't just an AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在寻找一只至少可以持有几年的股票，Microsoft 仍然可以是一个优秀的投资。该业务稳健，拥有多个不同的业务板块，包括游戏和云计算，这可以确保其在长期内继续增长；这不仅仅是一只 AI 股票。</p>
</div><p>But given its inflated valuation and the growth expectations that come with such premiums, investors who want to buy the stock should be prepared for a possible correction in the near term. This isn't a cheap stock, and there isn't much margin of safety -- if any -- right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但考虑到其高估值和伴随这种溢价的增长预期，想要购买该股票的投资者应该为短期内可能的修正做好准备。这不是一只便宜的股票，目前几乎没有安全边际。</p>
</div>

Microsoft's Latest Earnings Highlight a Concerning Trend for the Stock

- 人工智能推动微软等科技公司增长，但盈利增速放缓。
- 微软最新财报显示净利润增长 11%，低于收入增幅。
- 投资者需警惕高估值和潜在的市场修正风险。

微软最新的财报突显了一个令人担忧的股票趋势