<p>保险是一个古老的行业，可能是一把双刃剑。一方面，长期存在的老牌公司主导着这个行业，使得新竞争者很难立足。但另一方面，这些老牌公司可能会变得陈旧，邀请颠覆者前来搅局。</p>
<p>新兴保险公司 <strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 5.01%) 正试图通过对行业的独特理解来颠覆保险市场。它是一家市值仅为 22 亿美元的小公司，如果能够成功开辟自己的市场空间，甚至更好地彻底改变游戏规则，就有可能带来改变人生的投资回报。</p>
<p>那么，Lemonade 的股票是百万富翁制造者吗？还是说这家公司可能在某个时候会变得不再受欢迎？</p>
<p>以下是你需要知道的。</p>
<h2>创新是增长之路</h2>
<p>现有的保险公司市值达数十亿美元，包括 <strong>Allstate</strong>（520 亿美元）和 <strong>Progressive</strong>（1500 亿美元）。这些公司与 Lemonade 在财产和意外保险（P&amp;C）领域竞争，2022 年美国的书面保费总额超过 8500 亿美元！Lemonade 的市值刚刚超过 20 亿美元，现有保费不足 9 亿美元，因此在这个领域仍然是一个新兴竞争者。</p>
<p>Lemonade 随着时间的推移稳步扩展其保险产品，包括租房保险、房主保险、汽车保险、宠物保险和人寿保险。截至第三季度，Lemonade 的客户总数为 230 万，比一年前增长了 17%。这比人口增长速度快得多，意味着 Lemonade 正在从行业老牌公司那里赢得业务。</p>
<p>怎么做到的？传统保险公司依赖庞大的代理网络来销售保单、处理索赔以及与保单持有人打交道。Lemonade 打破了这一传统，转而通过 AI 聊天机器人和智能手机应用提供数字化体验。Lemonade 声称，索赔支付可以在短短三分钟内完成。Lemonade 的应用在 <strong>Apple</strong> 的 iOS 应用商店中获得了 4.9（满分 5 分）的评分。</p>
<p>时间将证明 Lemonade 的模式是否能继续奏效。现有竞争者可能最终会适应（或模仿）Lemonade。不幸的是，竞争壁垒是随着时间慢慢建立的。目前，Lemonade 正在获胜并不断增长。</p>
<h2>Lemonade 缺乏利润是个问题吗？</h2>
<p>对 Lemonade 最大的批评是其业务正在亏损。第三季度的净亏损为 6800 万美元，尽管公司产生了 4800 万美元的净现金流。</p>
<p>事情是这样的。Lemonade 目前使用再保险来帮助保护自己免受灾难性损失。基本上，再保险意味着 Lemonade 为其销售的保单投保。这就像是一个安全网，以防事情出错。Lemonade 这样做是因为它仍然是一家年轻的保险公司，正在积累分析风险和更好定价保险所需的数据。其毛损失率，即保费（收入）与索赔（支出）之比，在短短两年内从 92% 改善至 77%。</p>
<p>通过再保险降低 Lemonade 的保单承保风险后，它可以更专注于发展业务和获取新客户。缺点是 Lemonade 必须将一部分保费让给再保险公司，这意味着公司每份保单赚的钱更少。</p>
<p>理想情况下，一旦准备就绪，Lemonade 将承担更多的保单风险，从而获得更多利润。这也并不排除 Lemonade 在使用再保险的情况下最终实现盈利。目前，该业务资金充足，现金和短期投资达到 9.79 亿美元，几乎是其当前市值的一半。因此，投资者不必将 Lemonade 的亏损视为红旗。</p>
<h2>那么，Lemonade 的股票是百万富翁制造者吗？</h2>
<p>Lemonade 在一个庞大的行业中仍然是一个相对较小的参与者。那么，它能成为制造百万富翁的股票吗？可以。</p>
<p>是否能实现取决于几个因素：</p>
<ul>
<li>Lemonade 继续扩大客户基础，并从现有保险公司那里夺取市场份额。</li>
<li>公司的损失率持续改善。</li>
<li>Lemonade 最终证明它能够盈利。</li>
</ul>
<p>如果这三件事发生，前景将是无限的。</p>
<p>也就是说，市场已经积极涌入像 Lemonade 这样的投机股票，过去一个月其股价上涨超过 80%。然而，该股票仍比 2021 年的高点下跌约 80%。今天，Lemonade 的市净率仅略低于 4，夹在其现有竞争对手 Allstate 和 Progressive 的估值之间。</p>
<p>我认为该股票的估值大致在合理范围内。其更快的增长在一定程度上被缺乏利润所抵消。希望拥有 Lemonade 的投资者应考虑逐步购买该股票。该股票的波动性非常大，因此剧烈的价格波动是必然的。</p>

LMND

<p>Lemonade (LMND) 是一家小型保险公司，旨在通过其创新的数字化方法颠覆行业。尽管其当前市值为 12 亿美元，并且在第三季度净亏损 3000 万美元，但它显示出显著的增长，客户基础增加了 17%，达到了 230 万。Lemonade 利用人工智能和再保险来帮助降低风险，同时专注于扩展其产品。该股票最近上涨超过 80%，但仍比 2021 年的高峰下跌了 80%。未来的成功取决于持续增长、改善损失比率和最终实现盈利</p>

<p>Insurance is an age-old industry that can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, long-established incumbents dominate it, making it hard for new competitors to gain footing. But on the other hand, these incumbents can grow stale, inviting a disruptor to come along and make waves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保险是一个古老的行业，可能是一把双刃剑。一方面，长期存在的老牌公司主导着这个行业，使得新竞争者很难立足。但另一方面，这些老牌公司可能会变得陈旧，邀请颠覆者前来搅局。</p>
</div><p>Up-and-coming insurance company <strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 5.01%) is trying to disrupt insurance by putting its spin on the industry. It's a small company worth just $2.2 billion today, leaving room for life-changing investment returns if it can successfully carve out its niche -- or even better, change the game altogether.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴保险公司 <strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 5.01%) 正试图通过对行业的独特理解来颠覆保险市场。它是一家市值仅为 22 亿美元的小公司，如果能够成功开辟自己的市场空间，甚至更好地彻底改变游戏规则，就有可能带来改变人生的投资回报。</p>
</div><p>So, is Lemonade stock a millionaire maker? Or is the company likely to grow sour at some point instead?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，Lemonade 的股票是百万富翁制造者吗？还是说这家公司可能在某个时候会变得不再受欢迎？</p>
</div><p>Here is what you need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是你需要知道的。</p>
</div><h2>Innovation is the growth path</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>创新是增长之路</h2>
</div><p>Incumbent insurance companies are worth billions of dollars, including <strong>Allstate</strong> ($52 billion) and <strong>Progressive</strong> ($150 billion). These companies and Lemonade compete in property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance, which totaled over $850 billion in written premiums in 2022 -- just in the U.S. alone! Lemonade is worth just over $2 billion and has less than $900 million of in-force premiums, so it's still a nascent competitor in this field.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现有的保险公司市值达数十亿美元，包括 <strong>Allstate</strong>（520 亿美元）和 <strong>Progressive</strong>（1500 亿美元）。这些公司与 Lemonade 在财产和意外保险（P&amp;C）领域竞争，2022 年美国的书面保费总额超过 8500 亿美元！Lemonade 的市值刚刚超过 20 亿美元，现有保费不足 9 亿美元，因此在这个领域仍然是一个新兴竞争者。</p>
</div><p>Lemonade has steadily expanded its insurance offerings over time to include get renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance. Lemonade has 2.3 million total customers as of Q3, a 17% increase from a year ago. That's much faster growth than the population, which means Lemonade is winning business from industry incumbents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lemonade 随着时间的推移稳步扩展其保险产品，包括租房保险、房主保险、汽车保险、宠物保险和人寿保险。截至第三季度，Lemonade 的客户总数为 230 万，比一年前增长了 17%。这比人口增长速度快得多，意味着 Lemonade 正在从行业老牌公司那里赢得业务。</p>
</div><p>How? Traditional insurance companies depend on vast networks of agents to sell policies, process claims, and generally deal with policyholders. Lemonade bucked that tradition, instead going to AI chatbots and a digital experience via its smartphone app. Lemonade claims you can receive payment for a claim in as little as three minutes. Lemonade's app has a 4.9 (out of five) star rating on <strong>Apple</strong>'s iOS App Store.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>怎么做到的？传统保险公司依赖庞大的代理网络来销售保单、处理索赔以及与保单持有人打交道。Lemonade 打破了这一传统，转而通过 AI 聊天机器人和智能手机应用提供数字化体验。Lemonade 声称，索赔支付可以在短短三分钟内完成。Lemonade 的应用在 <strong>Apple</strong> 的 iOS 应用商店中获得了 4.9（满分 5 分）的评分。</p>
</div><p>Time will tell whether Lemonade's model continues to work. Incumbent competitors may eventually adapt to (or copy) Lemonade. Unfortunately, competitive moats are slowly dug over time. For now, Lemonade is winning and growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>时间将证明 Lemonade 的模式是否能继续奏效。现有竞争者可能最终会适应（或模仿）Lemonade。不幸的是，竞争壁垒是随着时间慢慢建立的。目前，Lemonade 正在获胜并不断增长。</p>
</div><h2>Is Lemonade's lack of profits a problem?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lemonade 缺乏利润是个问题吗？</h2>
</div><p>The biggest knock on Lemonade is that the business is losing money. Its net losses were $68 million in Q3, though the company did generate $48 million in net cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 Lemonade 最大的批评是其业务正在亏损。第三季度的净亏损为 6800 万美元，尽管公司产生了 4800 万美元的净现金流。</p>
</div><p>Here's the thing. Lemonade currently uses reinsurance to help protect itself from catastrophic losses. Essentially, reinsurance means Lemonade is taking out insurance on the policies it sells. It's like a safety net in case things go wrong. Lemonade is doing this because it's still a young insurance company accumulating the data it needs to analyze risk and price its insurance policies better. Its gross loss ratio, which measures premiums (incoming dollars) versus claims (outgoing dollars), has improved from 92% to 77% in just two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事情是这样的。Lemonade 目前使用再保险来帮助保护自己免受灾难性损失。基本上，再保险意味着 Lemonade 为其销售的保单投保。这就像是一个安全网，以防事情出错。Lemonade 这样做是因为它仍然是一家年轻的保险公司，正在积累分析风险和更好定价保险所需的数据。其毛损失率，即保费（收入）与索赔（支出）之比，在短短两年内从 92% 改善至 77%。</p>
</div><p>With the reinsurance reducing Lemonade's policy underwriting risks, it can focus more on growing its business and acquiring new customers. The downside is that Lemonade must cede a portion of its premiums to the reinsurer, which means the company is making less money per policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过再保险降低 Lemonade 的保单承保风险后，它可以更专注于发展业务和获取新客户。缺点是 Lemonade 必须将一部分保费让给再保险公司，这意味着公司每份保单赚的钱更少。</p>
</div><p>Ideally, once it's ready, Lemonade will shoulder more of that policy risk and profit more. That also doesn't rule out Lemonade eventually turning profitable despite using reinsurance. For now, the business is well funded with $979 million in cash and short-term investments, almost half its current market cap. Therefore, investors shouldn't necessarily see Lemonade's losses as a red flag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理想情况下，一旦准备就绪，Lemonade 将承担更多的保单风险，从而获得更多利润。这也并不排除 Lemonade 在使用再保险的情况下最终实现盈利。目前，该业务资金充足，现金和短期投资达到 9.79 亿美元，几乎是其当前市值的一半。因此，投资者不必将 Lemonade 的亏损视为红旗。</p>
</div><h2>So, is Lemonade stock a millionaire maker?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>那么，Lemonade 的股票是百万富翁制造者吗？</h2>
</div><p>Lemonade is still a relatively tiny player in a massive industry. So, can it be a millionaire-making stock? Yes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lemonade 在一个庞大的行业中仍然是一个相对较小的参与者。那么，它能成为制造百万富翁的股票吗？可以。</p>
</div><p>Whether it happens depends on a few things:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是否能实现取决于几个因素：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Lemonade continues to grow its customer base and take market share from incumbent insurers.</li>
<li>The company's loss ratios continually improve over time.</li>
<li>Lemonade eventually shows it can turn a profit.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Lemonade 继续扩大客户基础，并从现有保险公司那里夺取市场份额。</li>
<li>公司的损失率持续改善。</li>
<li>Lemonade 最终证明它能够盈利。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The sky is the limit if these three things happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这三件事发生，前景将是无限的。</p>
</div><p>That said, the market has aggressively piled into speculative stocks such as Lemonade, which has risen over 80% in the past month. Yet, the stock is still down about 80% from its 2021 high. Today, Lemonade trades at a price-to-book value ratio of just under 4, sandwiched between the valuations of its incumbent competitors, Allstate and Progressive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，市场已经积极涌入像 Lemonade 这样的投机股票，过去一个月其股价上涨超过 80%。然而，该股票仍比 2021 年的高点下跌约 80%。今天，Lemonade 的市净率仅略低于 4，夹在其现有竞争对手 Allstate 和 Progressive 的估值之间。</p>
</div><p>I'd argue the stock's valuation is probably about where it should be. Its faster growth is somewhat offset by its lack of profits. Investors who want to own Lemonade should consider buying shares slowly. The stock has proven very volatile, so dramatic price swings are bound to occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为该股票的估值大致在合理范围内。其更快的增长在一定程度上被缺乏利润所抵消。希望拥有 Lemonade 的投资者应考虑逐步购买该股票。该股票的波动性非常大，因此剧烈的价格波动是必然的。</p>
</div>

Lemonade 股票能否成为百万富翁制造者？