<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -1.29%) 股票的辉煌涨势将在半导体巨头于 11 月 20 日发布其 2025 财年第三季度业绩（截至 10 月 27 日的三个月）时受到考验，因为投资者和分析师预计这家芯片制造商将继续其由人工智能（AI）推动的增长。</p>
<p>毕竟，截至目前，英伟达的股价在 2024 年已经上涨了惊人的 196%，并且其估值相当高。在本文中，我将回顾英伟达在发布之前四个季度业绩后的表现，然后再看看投资者在其下一组业绩发布时可能面临的情况。</p>
<h2>投资者对英伟达业绩的反应在过去四个季度中各不相同</h2>
<p>下表总结了市场对英伟达之前四个季度报告的即时反应。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>日期</strong></th>
<th><strong>期间</strong></th>
<th><strong>收入（十亿美元）</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比变化</strong></th>
<th><strong>每股收益</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比变化</strong></th>
<th><strong>即时股价变化</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 11 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 财年第三季度</td>
<td>$18</td>
<td>206%</td>
<td>$4.02</td>
<td>593%</td>
<td>-2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 2 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 财年第四季度</td>
<td>$22</td>
<td>265%</td>
<td>$5.16</td>
<td>486%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 5 月 22 日</td>
<td>2025 财年第一季度</td>
<td>$26</td>
<td>262%</td>
<td>$6.12</td>
<td>461%</td>
<td>+9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 8 月 28 日</td>
<td>2025 财年第二季度</td>
<td>$30</td>
<td>122%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
<td>152%</td>
<td>-6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>来源：英伟达季度财报和雅虎财经历史价格数据。</p>
<p>当英伟达一年前发布其 2024 财年第三季度业绩时，由于美国政府对向中国出口的限制，市场对该公司在中国的业务表示担忧，导致股价下跌。市场忽视了当时公司超出预期的业绩和令人印象深刻的指引。</p>
<p>然而，接下来的两个季度报告为英伟达的股价带来了良好的提振，因为公司在收入和盈利方面继续保持健康增长，得益于对其人工智能图形处理单元（GPU）的强劲需求。然而，当英伟达在今年 8 月发布其上一季度业绩时，投资者似乎对公司报告的相对较慢的增长速度表示不满。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，英伟达在 2025 财年第二季度的收入增长较之前三个季度有所放缓。当然，公司在同比基础上收入增长超过一倍，盈利也大幅上涨，但到那时，华尔街已经习惯了更强劲的收入和盈利增长。</p>
<p>此外，英伟达预计 2025 财年第三季度收入为 325 亿美元，这将意味着同比增长近 80%。因此，芯片制造商的指引表明，其收入在发布结果时不会是去年的两倍。然而，更大的图景是，考虑到季度业绩发布后股价的即时波动，英伟达的股价在过去一年中已经翻了三倍。</p>
<p>这并不令人惊讶，因为最近的市场发展清楚表明，该公司仍然是人工智能芯片的主导者，而这一市场没有放缓的迹象。因此，投资者在英伟达发布季度报告时，应该关注更大的图景。</p>
<h2>更大的图景是什么样的</h2>
<p>考虑到英伟达现在有了更高的收入基础，其增长相较于之前几个季度的放缓是合乎逻辑的。即便如此，季度收入增长 80% 也不是一件小事，尤其是考虑到竞争对手如 <strong>AMD</strong> 在人工智能芯片市场上难以取得显著进展，并且在从英伟达手中夺取市场份额方面面临困难。</p>
<p>例如，AMD 在 2024 年第三季度的收入同比增长 18%，达到 68 亿美元。该公司的数据中心业务收入同比增长 122%，达到 35 亿美元。这与英伟达在 2025 财年第二季度数据中心收入同比增长 154%，达到 263 亿美元相比，显得微不足道。</p>
<p>换句话说，尽管英伟达的收入基础更大，但其增长速度仍快于 AMD。这是因为该公司是人工智能芯片的主要供应商，市场份额高达 95%。更重要的是，随着对英伟达新一代 Blackwell AI 处理器的需求预计将在 2025 年超过供应，这种主导地位似乎将继续下去，这并不令人惊讶，因为这些芯片预计将保持其在技术上的优势，超越 AMD 的产品。</p>
<p>分析师对英伟达的 Blackwell 处理器的销售持乐观态度，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>（通过 Tom's Hardware）的报告表明，该公司明年可能销售价值 2000 亿美元的这些芯片。如果真是如此，英伟达在下一个财年的收入可能会远超预期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 当前财年收入预估数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>根据上述图表，英伟达的收入预计将在 2025 财年超过去年的 609 亿美元，翻一番。分析师预测下一个财年其收入将再增长 43%，但对 Blackwell 的强劲需求可能会帮助其轻松超过这一数字。</p>
<p>因此，如果英伟达因其 Blackwell 处理器的成功推出而对当前季度给出超出预期的前景，这可能为这只人工智能股票在经历了今年的巨大涨幅后，进一步上涨奠定基础。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

<p>Nvidia 的股票表现受到关注，因为它准备在 11 月 20 日发布 2025 财年第三季度的业绩。该公司在 2024 年股价增长了惊人的 196%，但对过去季度业绩的反应却褒贬不一。尽管 Nvidia 的收入增长依然强劲，但增长放缓引发了投资者的担忧。尽管如此，Nvidia 在人工智能芯片市场依然占据主导地位，与 AMD 等竞争对手相比，市场份额和收入增长都十分可观。投资者被建议关注整体增长轨迹，而非短期波动</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.29%) stock's stellar rally is set to be tested when the semiconductor giant releases its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results (for the three months ended Oct. 27) on Nov. 20, as investors and analysts will be expecting the chipmaker to continue its artificial intelligence (AI)-fueled surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -1.29%) 股票的辉煌涨势将在半导体巨头于 11 月 20 日发布其 2025 财年第三季度业绩（截至 10 月 27 日的三个月）时受到考验，因为投资者和分析师预计这家芯片制造商将继续其由人工智能（AI）推动的增长。</p>
</div><p>After all, shares of Nvidia have shot up a remarkable 196% so far in 2024, as of this writing, and they command a rich valuation. In this article, I will take a look at how Nvidia stock has performed following the release of its previous four quarterly results before checking what lies in store for investors when it releases its next set of results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，截至目前，英伟达的股价在 2024 年已经上涨了惊人的 196%，并且其估值相当高。在本文中，我将回顾英伟达在发布之前四个季度业绩后的表现，然后再看看投资者在其下一组业绩发布时可能面临的情况。</p>
</div><h2>Investors' reaction to Nvidia's results has been mixed in the last four quarters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者对英伟达业绩的反应在过去四个季度中各不相同</h2>
</div><p>The following chart summarizes the market's immediate reaction to Nvidia's previous four quarterly reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表总结了市场对英伟达之前四个季度报告的即时反应。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>Date</strong></th>
<th><strong>Period</strong></th>
<th><strong>Revenue (in $billion)</strong></th>
<th><strong>Year-over-year change</strong></th>
<th><strong>Earnings per share</strong></th>
<th><strong>Year-over-year change</strong></th>
<th><strong>Immediate stock price change</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Nov. 21, 2023</td>
<td>Q3 FY2024</td>
<td>$18</td>
<td>206%</td>
<td>$4.02</td>
<td>593%</td>
<td>-2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Feb. 21, 2023</td>
<td>Q4 FY2024</td>
<td>$22</td>
<td>265%</td>
<td>$5.16</td>
<td>486%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>May. 22, 2024</td>
<td>Q1 FY2025</td>
<td>$26</td>
<td>262%</td>
<td>$6.12</td>
<td>461%</td>
<td>+9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aug. 28, 2024</td>
<td>Q2 FY2025</td>
<td>$30</td>
<td>122%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
<td>152%</td>
<td>-6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>日期</strong></th>
<th><strong>期间</strong></th>
<th><strong>收入（十亿美元）</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比变化</strong></th>
<th><strong>每股收益</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比变化</strong></th>
<th><strong>即时股价变化</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 11 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 财年第三季度</td>
<td>$18</td>
<td>206%</td>
<td>$4.02</td>
<td>593%</td>
<td>-2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 2 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 财年第四季度</td>
<td>$22</td>
<td>265%</td>
<td>$5.16</td>
<td>486%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 5 月 22 日</td>
<td>2025 财年第一季度</td>
<td>$26</td>
<td>262%</td>
<td>$6.12</td>
<td>461%</td>
<td>+9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 8 月 28 日</td>
<td>2025 财年第二季度</td>
<td>$30</td>
<td>122%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
<td>152%</td>
<td>-6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Nvidia's quarterly earnings releases and Yahoo! Finance historical price data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：英伟达季度财报和雅虎财经历史价格数据。</p>
</div><p>When Nvidia released its fiscal 2024 Q3 results a year ago, the stock fell thanks to concerns about the company's business in China on account of restrictions by the U.S. government on exports to the country. The market overlooked the company's better-than-expected results and impressive guidance at that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当英伟达一年前发布其 2024 财年第三季度业绩时，由于美国政府对向中国出口的限制，市场对该公司在中国的业务表示担忧，导致股价下跌。市场忽视了当时公司超出预期的业绩和令人印象深刻的指引。</p>
</div><p>However, the next two quarterly reports gave Nvidia stock a nice boost as the company continued its string of healthy growth in revenue and earnings thanks to the solid demand for its AI graphics processing units (GPUs). However, when Nvidia released its previous quarterly results in August this year, investors seemingly took issue with the relatively slower pace of growth that the company reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，接下来的两个季度报告为英伟达的股价带来了良好的提振，因为公司在收入和盈利方面继续保持健康增长，得益于对其人工智能图形处理单元（GPU）的强劲需求。然而，当英伟达在今年 8 月发布其上一季度业绩时，投资者似乎对公司报告的相对较慢的增长速度表示不满。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that Nvidia's revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 was a deceleration over the growth that it delivered in the previous three quarters. Of course, the company did more than double its revenue on a year-over-year basis, and its earnings also surged impressively, but Wall Street had gotten used to much stronger growth in its top and bottom lines by that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，英伟达在 2025 财年第二季度的收入增长较之前三个季度有所放缓。当然，公司在同比基础上收入增长超过一倍，盈利也大幅上涨，但到那时，华尔街已经习惯了更强劲的收入和盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Nvidia guided for fiscal Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, which would translate into a year-over-year increase of almost 80%. So, the chipmaker's guidance indicates that its top line won't be doubling from the year-ago period when it releases its results on Nov. 20. However, the bigger picture is that Nvidia stock has tripled in the past year after taking into account the immediate fluctuations in price following its quarterly results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英伟达预计 2025 财年第三季度收入为 325 亿美元，这将意味着同比增长近 80%。因此，芯片制造商的指引表明，其收入在发布结果时不会是去年的两倍。然而，更大的图景是，考虑到季度业绩发布后股价的即时波动，英伟达的股价在过去一年中已经翻了三倍。</p>
</div><p>That's not surprising, as the recent market developments have made it clear that the company continues to remain the dominant player in AI chips, a market that's showing no signs of slowing down. Investors, therefore, would do well to focus on the bigger picture when Nvidia releases its quarterly report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不令人惊讶，因为最近的市场发展清楚表明，该公司仍然是人工智能芯片的主导者，而这一市场没有放缓的迹象。因此，投资者在英伟达发布季度报告时，应该关注更大的图景。</p>
</div><h2>Here's what the bigger picture looks like</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更大的图景是什么样的</h2>
</div><p>The relative slowdown in Nvidia's growth from the prior quarters is logical, considering that the company now has a much higher revenue base. Even then, an 80% jump in quarterly revenue is no mean feat, especially considering that rivals such as <strong>AMD</strong> have found it difficult to make a notable dent in the AI chip market and are having difficulty taking share away from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到英伟达现在有了更高的收入基础，其增长相较于之前几个季度的放缓是合乎逻辑的。即便如此，季度收入增长 80% 也不是一件小事，尤其是考虑到竞争对手如 <strong>AMD</strong> 在人工智能芯片市场上难以取得显著进展，并且在从英伟达手中夺取市场份额方面面临困难。</p>
</div><p>For example, AMD's revenue in the third quarter of 2024 was up 18% year over year to $6.8 billion. The company's data center business recorded a year-over-year jump of 122% in revenue to $3.5 billion. That pales in comparison to the 154% year-over-year increase in Nvidia's data center revenue in fiscal Q2 to a massive $26.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，AMD 在 2024 年第三季度的收入同比增长 18%，达到 68 亿美元。该公司的数据中心业务收入同比增长 122%，达到 35 亿美元。这与英伟达在 2025 财年第二季度数据中心收入同比增长 154%，达到 263 亿美元相比，显得微不足道。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Nvidia is growing at a faster pace than AMD despite having a larger revenue base. That's because the company is the leading supplier of AI chips, with a market share of as much as 95%. More importantly, that dominance seems set to continue as the demand for Nvidia's new generation of Blackwell AI processors is set to exceed supply in 2025, which is not surprising as these chips are expected to maintain their technological advantage over AMD's offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，尽管英伟达的收入基础更大，但其增长速度仍快于 AMD。这是因为该公司是人工智能芯片的主要供应商，市场份额高达 95%。更重要的是，随着对英伟达新一代 Blackwell AI 处理器的需求预计将在 2025 年超过供应，这种主导地位似乎将继续下去，这并不令人惊讶，因为这些芯片预计将保持其在技术上的优势，超越 AMD 的产品。</p>
</div><p>Analysts are upbeat about the sales of Nvidia's Blackwell processors, with a report by <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> (via Tom's Hardware) suggesting that the company could sell $200 billion worth of these chips next year. If that indeed happens, Nvidia's revenue in the next fiscal year could turn out to be well ahead of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师对英伟达的 Blackwell 处理器的销售持乐观态度，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>（通过 Tom's Hardware）的报告表明，该公司明年可能销售价值 2000 亿美元的这些芯片。如果真是如此，英伟达在下一个财年的收入可能会远超预期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 当前财年收入预估数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>As per the above chart, Nvidia's top line is expected to more than double in fiscal 2025 from last year's reading of $60.9 billion. Analysts are forecasting another jump of 43% in its revenue next fiscal year, but the strong demand for Blackwell could help it exceed that mark handsomely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据上述图表，英伟达的收入预计将在 2025 财年超过去年的 609 亿美元，翻一番。分析师预测下一个财年其收入将再增长 43%，但对 Blackwell 的强劲需求可能会帮助其轻松超过这一数字。</p>
</div><p>So, if Nvidia delivers a better-than-expected outlook for the current quarter on account of the successful launch of its Blackwell processors, it could set the stage for more upside in this AI stock even after the terrific gains it has clocked this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果英伟达因其 Blackwell 处理器的成功推出而对当前季度给出超出预期的前景，这可能为这只人工智能股票在经历了今年的巨大涨幅后，进一步上涨奠定基础。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Has Done This After Its Last Four Quarterly Results. Here's What It May Do After Nov. 20

- Nvidia 将于 11 月 20 日发布 2025 财年第三季度财报。  
- 投资者期待其 AI 驱动的增长持续，预计营收将同比增长近 80%。  
- 尽管增长放缓，Nvidia 仍在 AI 芯片市场占据主导地位，市场份额高达 95%。

英伟达股票在过去四次季度财报后的表现。以下是它可能在 11 月 20 日之后的表现