<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.11%) 曾经花费相当长的时间成为全球最有价值的公司，尽管它在这一位置上的表现时常被 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 打断。苹果的市值曾达到近 3.6 万亿美元，但此后已回落至约 3.4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>当一家公司变得如此庞大和成功时，关于其未来表现的预测自然会引发激烈的争论。著名投资者沃伦·巴菲特削减了在该公司的股份，这对苹果的看涨论并没有帮助，尽管这仍然是 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 投资组合中最大的持仓。</p>
<p>让我们考虑一下，苹果是否以及何时可能达到 4 万亿美元。</p>
<h2>投资者为何钟爱苹果</h2>
<p>苹果开发了一个独特的生态系统，拥有其粉丝喜爱的热门产品。其产品在一个互联、集成的系统中运作，培养了忠诚度和排他性。</p>
<p>例如，尽管所有顶尖科技公司以及一些新兴公司都在炫耀他们在人工智能（AI）方面的投资，但苹果在其他硬件厂商中具有优势，因为其客户已经投入并忠于其平台。它可能还具有优势，因为这些客户之所以如此忠诚的原因是：苹果通常能够顺利整合技术。它最近在其 iPhone 上推出了强大的生成式 AI 功能，这些功能完全整合且易于安装和使用，包括 Siri 的重启。新功能包括 AI 驱动的图像搜索和照片编辑，而这些服务是非苹果用户需要在多个地方寻找或付费才能获得的。</p>
<p>目前，苹果智能通过免费的软件更新向拥有足够新设备的用户提供，但它们将预装在未来的 iPhone 型号上。苹果在全面的 AI 计划以及 AI 的有机增长中处于良好位置。</p>
<p>苹果在其服务业务中也取得了巨大的成功。苹果支付和苹果电视的增长速度超过了整体，并为已经庞大而强大的业务增加了额外的驱动力。</p>
<p>拓展新的收入来源是许多大型公司的关键杠杆，这是巴菲特所说的他在伟大企业中所喜爱的特征之一。订阅服务还提供可靠的收入来源，并进一步吸引用户进入苹果生态系统。苹果将继续从 iPhone 销售中获得最大比例的收入，但其多样化的产品和服务使其成为一个全面的业务，拥有更大的机会。</p>
<h2>迈向新里程碑</h2>
<p>为了让苹果达到 4 万亿美元的市值，股票需要从现在的水平上涨约 18%。这可能多快发生？今年它已经上涨了 17%，而且还有大约六周的时间。</p>
<p>在公司 2024 财年第四季度（截至 9 月 28 日），收入同比增长 6%，达到 950 亿美元，华尔街预计其将继续以中个位数的百分比增长。每股收益的情况也类似，预计将以缓慢而稳定的速度增长。不过，这些预期可能是保守的，因为目前尚不清楚苹果智能将产生多大的影响。</p>
<p>按照当前的增长率，苹果的市值可能在明年早些时候达到 4 万亿美元，前提是其估值不会下滑。然而，苹果股票目前相对昂贵。它的市盈率为过去 12 个月收益的 37 倍，远高于其五年平均的 29 倍。这一溢价是否合理？可能是，因为如此主导和可靠的公司值得支付溢价。但苹果股票在过去一个月略有下跌，其仍然高企的估值可能意味着在短期内面临进一步回调的风险。</p>
<p>如果你正在开设新的投资，可能不想让苹果成为你投资组合中最大的持仓，但它是一个可靠的增长和稳定候选者，并提供稳定（但低于平均水平）的股息。如果你已经是股东，耐心持有，等待它达到更进一步的里程碑。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的市值波动，目前约为 2.4 万亿美元，较接近 3 万亿美元的峰值有所下降。尽管沃伦·巴菲特减少了持股，苹果依然因其忠实的客户群和整合的生态系统而受到青睐。该公司正在扩展其服务和人工智能能力，这可能推动增长。要达到 3 万亿美元的市值，苹果股票需要上涨约 18%。尽管今年已上涨 17%，但其高估值带来了风险。投资者应仔细考虑自己的持仓，在增长潜力与当前股价之间取得平衡</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.11%) has spent quite some time as the most valuable company in the world, although its run in the top spot has been periodically interrupted by <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>. Apple's market cap peaked at nearly $3.6 trillion, but it has since fallen back to around $3.4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.11%) 曾经花费相当长的时间成为全球最有价值的公司，尽管它在这一位置上的表现时常被 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 打断。苹果的市值曾达到近 3.6 万亿美元，但此后已回落至约 3.4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>When a company becomes that large and successful, it's natural that predictions about its future performance are going to be hotly debated. It hasn't helped the bull case for Apple that famed investor Warren Buffett has slashed his stake in the company, although it's still the largest position in the <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当一家公司变得如此庞大和成功时，关于其未来表现的预测自然会引发激烈的争论。著名投资者沃伦·巴菲特削减了在该公司的股份，这对苹果的看涨论并没有帮助，尽管这仍然是 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 投资组合中最大的持仓。</p>
</div><p>Let's consider if, and when, Apple might reach $4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们考虑一下，苹果是否以及何时可能达到 4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Why investors love Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者为何钟爱苹果</h2>
</div><p>Apple has developed a differentiated ecosystem of popular products that its fans love. Its products work in an interconnected, integrated system that breeds loyalty and exclusivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果开发了一个独特的生态系统，拥有其粉丝喜爱的热门产品。其产品在一个互联、集成的系统中运作，培养了忠诚度和排他性。</p>
</div><p>So, for example, even though all of the top tech companies, and some new ones, are bragging about their investments in artificial intelligence (AI), Apple has an edge over other hardware players because its customers are already invested in and loyal to its platform. It may also have an edge because of the reason these customers are so loyal to begin with: Apple usually integrates the technology smoothly. It recently debuted powerful generative AI features on its iPhones that are fully integrated and easy to install and use, including a Siri reboot. New features include AI-powered image searching and photo editing, and they're the kind of services a non-Apple user would have to find in multiple places or pay for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，尽管所有顶尖科技公司以及一些新兴公司都在炫耀他们在人工智能（AI）方面的投资，但苹果在其他硬件厂商中具有优势，因为其客户已经投入并忠于其平台。它可能还具有优势，因为这些客户之所以如此忠诚的原因是：苹果通常能够顺利整合技术。它最近在其 iPhone 上推出了强大的生成式 AI 功能，这些功能完全整合且易于安装和使用，包括 Siri 的重启。新功能包括 AI 驱动的图像搜索和照片编辑，而这些服务是非苹果用户需要在多个地方寻找或付费才能获得的。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Apple Intelligence is available to users with new enough devices through a free software update, but they'll come installed on future iPhone models. Apple is well-positioned to benefit from a full AI program as well as the organic growth of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，苹果智能通过免费的软件更新向拥有足够新设备的用户提供，但它们将预装在未来的 iPhone 型号上。苹果在全面的 AI 计划以及 AI 的有机增长中处于良好位置。</p>
</div><p>Apple is also seeing tremendous success in its services business. Apple Pay and Apple TV are growing faster than the total and are adding an extra driver to what's already a huge and powerful business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在其服务业务中也取得了巨大的成功。苹果支付和苹果电视的增长速度超过了整体，并为已经庞大而强大的业务增加了额外的驱动力。</p>
</div><p>Branching out into new revenue streams is a key lever to push for many large companies, and it's one of the features Buffett has said he loves in a great business. Subscription services also provide reliable revenue streams and draw users further into the Apple ecosystem. Apple will continue to get the largest fraction of its revenue from iPhone sales, but its varied products and services make it a well-rounded business with greater opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拓展新的收入来源是许多大型公司的关键杠杆，这是巴菲特所说的他在伟大企业中所喜爱的特征之一。订阅服务还提供可靠的收入来源，并进一步吸引用户进入苹果生态系统。苹果将继续从 iPhone 销售中获得最大比例的收入，但其多样化的产品和服务使其成为一个全面的业务，拥有更大的机会。</p>
</div><h2>Heading for new milestones</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>迈向新里程碑</h2>
</div><p>For Apple to reach a $4 trillion market cap, the stock would need to gain about 18% from where it is today. How fast could that happen? It's already up 17% this year, and there's still about six weeks left to go.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了让苹果达到 4 万亿美元的市值，股票需要从现在的水平上涨约 18%。这可能多快发生？今年它已经上涨了 17%，而且还有大约六周的时间。</p>
</div><p>Revenue increased 6% year over year in the company's fiscal 2024 fourth quarter (which ended Sept. 28) to $95 billion, and Wall Street expects it to keep growing at mid-single-digit percentage rates. It's a similar story with earnings per share, which are expected to increase at a slow and steady pace. Those expectations may be conservative, though, because it's still unclear how much of an impact Apple Intelligence will have.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公司 2024 财年第四季度（截至 9 月 28 日），收入同比增长 6%，达到 950 亿美元，华尔街预计其将继续以中个位数的百分比增长。每股收益的情况也类似，预计将以缓慢而稳定的速度增长。不过，这些预期可能是保守的，因为目前尚不清楚苹果智能将产生多大的影响。</p>
</div><p>At current growth rates, Apple's market cap may hit the $4 trillion mark as early as next year, presuming that its valuations don't slip. However, Apple stock is fairly expensive right now. It trades at 37 times trailing 12-month earnings, well above its five-year average of 29. Is that premium justified? It might be, because companies that are this dominant and reliable are worth paying a premium for. But Apple stock has dipped a bit over the past month, and its still-lofty valuation could mean that it's at risk of further pullbacks in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按照当前的增长率，苹果的市值可能在明年早些时候达到 4 万亿美元，前提是其估值不会下滑。然而，苹果股票目前相对昂贵。它的市盈率为过去 12 个月收益的 37 倍，远高于其五年平均的 29 倍。这一溢价是否合理？可能是，因为如此主导和可靠的公司值得支付溢价。但苹果股票在过去一个月略有下跌，其仍然高企的估值可能意味着在短期内面临进一步回调的风险。</p>
</div><p>You may not want to make Apple the largest position in your portfolio if you're opening a new stake, but it's a reliable candidate for growth and stability, and offers a steady (but below-average) dividend. If you're already a shareholder, hold on and wait for it to hit further milestones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你正在开设新的投资，可能不想让苹果成为你投资组合中最大的持仓，但它是一个可靠的增长和稳定候选者，并提供稳定（但低于平均水平）的股息。如果你已经是股东，耐心持有，等待它达到更进一步的里程碑。</p>
</div>

Is Apple's Market Cap Going to $4 Trillion?

- 苹果公司市值曾达到近 3.6 万亿美元，目前回落至约 2.4 万亿美元。  
- 其产品生态系统和服务业务持续增长，吸引用户忠诚。  
- 若按当前增长率，苹果可能在明年达到 3 万亿美元市值。

苹果的市值会达到 4 万亿美元吗？