<p>在我看来，推动人工智能（AI）发展的最关键基础设施是半导体。从存储到内存、量子计算、机器学习以及其他许多生成式 AI 应用，半导体代表了支撑更广泛 AI 理论的骨干。</p>
<p>如果你在过去几年关注芯片制造商，那么你会发现 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 4.89%）已经成为 AI 领域最具影响力的公司并不奇怪。然而，尽管其股价在过去两年中上涨了 752%，著名投资者软银的孙正义最近宣称 Nvidia 的股票被低估了。</p>
<p>孙正义的逻辑是，生成式 AI 的总可寻址市场（TAM）预计在未来几年将经历强劲增长。这不仅是 Nvidia 的明显利好，而且该公司在图形处理单元（GPU）架构方面的行业领先地位使其在竞争中显著脱颖而出；因此，Nvidia 实际上可能能够获得孙正义所预测的大部分增量市场份额。如果真是这样，Nvidia 的股票看起来就是一个毫无疑问的选择。</p>
<p>虽然孙正义可能是正确的，但我并不允许 Nvidia 的主导地位掩盖芯片领域的其他机会。接下来，我将详细说明为什么我认为 <strong>Qualcomm</strong>（QCOM 0.13%）是投资 Nvidia 的替代选择，并且我认为现在是一个更好的机会。</p>
<h2>Qualcomm 正在悄然崛起为 AI 明星</h2>
<p>尽管 Qualcomm 是一家半导体公司，但其基础业务与 Nvidia 大相径庭。Nvidia 专注于制造用于生成式 AI 开发的 GPU。相比之下，Qualcomm 的 Snapdragon 架构主要集中在为手机甚至物联网（IoT）设备提供动力。</p>
<p>在公司的财年（截至 9 月 29 日），Qualcomm 的收入为 389 亿美元，同比增长仅为 9%。虽然这个增长水平看起来并不令人振奋，但请记住，Qualcomm 在过去几个季度一直处于转型模式——通过削减成本和重新点燃其核心手机业务的增长来实现。</p>
<p>在我看来，Qualcomm 的努力开始见到成效。尽管在 2024 财年的上半年，收入仅增长了低个位数，但 Qualcomm 在下半年表现出令人印象深刻的反弹，第三季度销售增长了 11%，第四季度增长了 19%。</p>
<p>更重要的是，Qualcomm 的净收入和每股收益（EPS）在 2024 财年同比增长了 40%。我愿意为这种盈利增长水平换取平淡的收入增长。而更好的消息是 Qualcomm 将如何分配这些新获得的利润。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTgwMjQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyNTg5NDQ3NS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTgwMjQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyNTg5NDQ3NS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>现在爱上 Qualcomm 股票的 15 亿个理由</h2>
<p>作为其最近财报的一部分，Qualcomm 的管理层宣布公司的董事会批准了一项 150 亿美元的股票回购计划。我喜欢这个想法，我认为这一举措是利用公司多余现金流的一种诱人方式，以回报股东。</p>
<h2>现在 Qualcomm 股票值得买吗？</h2>
<p>在下面的图表中，我将 Qualcomm 与其他半导体股票的同行进行基准比较，使用前瞻市盈率（P/E）倍数。我认为前瞻市盈率是一个有用的基准，因为它可以帮助指示公司前景相对于同行的看法。以仅 14.3 的前瞻市盈率来看，投资者似乎对 Qualcomm 的增长前景给予了相当大的折扣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5b1e112536045073c67a3dce0f34cd67.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5b1e112536045073c67a3dce0f34cd67.png"/></p>
<p>QCOM 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>从基本面来看，图表中所示的估值趋势表明，Qualcomm 可能被视为更广泛半导体股票市场中的一个被低估的机会。当你将新的 150 亿美元股票回购计划与这些趋势结合起来时，我倾向于认为 Qualcomm 的管理层看到了这种动态，并相信该股票被低估。</p>
<p>虽然孙正义对 Nvidia 潜力的评估可能是准确的，但考虑到与同行相比的估值差异，我认为 Qualcomm 股票现在是一个更具吸引力的机会。在我看来，Qualcomm 的交易价格非常划算，我认为对于有长期投资视野的投资者来说，这只股票是一个毫无疑问的选择。</p>

高通

<p>软银的孙正义认为，鉴于生成性人工智能市场的预期增长，英伟达的股票被低估。然而，文章指出高通是一个更好的投资机会，强调其近期的扭亏为盈和盈利增长。高通的股票回购计划和较低的未来市盈率表明，与同行相比，它可能被低估。作者总结认为，高通是一个引人注目的长期投资选择</p>

<p>In my eyes, the most critical piece of infrastructure powering artificial intelligence (AI) is semiconductors. From storage to memory, quantum computing, machine learning, and a host of other generative AI applications, semiconductors represent the backbone supporting the broader AI thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，推动人工智能（AI）发展的最关键基础设施是半导体。从存储到内存、量子计算、机器学习以及其他许多生成式 AI 应用，半导体代表了支撑更广泛 AI 理论的骨干。</p>
</div><p>If you've been following chipmakers over the last couple of years, then you will find it no surprise that <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 4.89%) has emerged as the most influential company in the AI realm. And yet despite its shares gaining 752% in just the last two years, famed investor Masayoshi Son of SoftBank recently proclaimed that Nvidia stock is undervalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在过去几年关注芯片制造商，那么你会发现 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 4.89%）已经成为 AI 领域最具影响力的公司并不奇怪。然而，尽管其股价在过去两年中上涨了 752%，著名投资者软银的孙正义最近宣称 Nvidia 的股票被低估了。</p>
</div><p>Son's logic was that the total addressable market (TAM) for generative AI is expected to witness robust growth over the next several years. Not only is this an obvious tailwind for Nvidia, but the company's industry-leading roster of graphics processing units (GPU) architecture separates it from the competition in a considerable way; therefore, Nvidia may actually be able to acquire the majority of incremental market share that Son is projecting. Should this be the case, Nvidia stock looks like a no-brainer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>孙正义的逻辑是，生成式 AI 的总可寻址市场（TAM）预计在未来几年将经历强劲增长。这不仅是 Nvidia 的明显利好，而且该公司在图形处理单元（GPU）架构方面的行业领先地位使其在竞争中显著脱颖而出；因此，Nvidia 实际上可能能够获得孙正义所预测的大部分增量市场份额。如果真是这样，Nvidia 的股票看起来就是一个毫无疑问的选择。</p>
</div><p>While Son could be correct, I'm not allowing Nvidia's dominance to overshadow other opportunities in the chip space. Below, I'm going to detail why I see <strong>Qualcomm</strong>(QCOM 0.13%) as an alternative to investing in Nvidia, and one that I think is a better opportunity right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然孙正义可能是正确的，但我并不允许 Nvidia 的主导地位掩盖芯片领域的其他机会。接下来，我将详细说明为什么我认为 <strong>Qualcomm</strong>（QCOM 0.13%）是投资 Nvidia 的替代选择，并且我认为现在是一个更好的机会。</p>
</div><h2>Qualcomm is quietly emerging as an AI star</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Qualcomm 正在悄然崛起为 AI 明星</h2>
</div><p>Although Qualcomm is a semiconductor company, its underlying business is quite different to that of Nvidia. Nvidia specializes in making GPUs that are used for generative AI development. By contrast, Qualcomm's Snapdragon architecture is primarily focused on powering mobile phones or even Internet of Things (IoT) devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Qualcomm 是一家半导体公司，但其基础业务与 Nvidia 大相径庭。Nvidia 专注于制造用于生成式 AI 开发的 GPU。相比之下，Qualcomm 的 Snapdragon 架构主要集中在为手机甚至物联网（IoT）设备提供动力。</p>
</div><p>For the company's fiscal year (ended Sept. 29), Qualcomm generated $38.9 billion in revenue -- up just 9% year over year. While this level of growth might seem uninspiring, keep in mind that Qualcomm has spent the last several quarters in turnaround mode -- underscored by cost-cutting efforts and reigniting growth in its core handsets (phone) business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公司的财年（截至 9 月 29 日），Qualcomm 的收入为 389 亿美元，同比增长仅为 9%。虽然这个增长水平看起来并不令人振奋，但请记住，Qualcomm 在过去几个季度一直处于转型模式——通过削减成本和重新点燃其核心手机业务的增长来实现。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, Qualcomm's efforts are starting to bear fruit. While revenue only grew in the low single digits during the first half of fiscal 2024, Qualcomm demonstrated an impressive turnaround in the second half as sales rose by 11% during the third quarter and by 19% in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，Qualcomm 的努力开始见到成效。尽管在 2024 财年的上半年，收入仅增长了低个位数，但 Qualcomm 在下半年表现出令人印象深刻的反弹，第三季度销售增长了 11%，第四季度增长了 19%。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Qualcomm's net income and earnings per share (EPS) both increased by 40% year over year in fiscal 2024. I'll take mundane revenue growth in exchange for this level of profitability growth any day. And what's even better is <em>how</em> Qualcomm will be allocating some of this newfound profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，Qualcomm 的净收入和每股收益（EPS）在 2024 财年同比增长了 40%。我愿意为这种盈利增长水平换取平淡的收入增长。而更好的消息是 Qualcomm 将如何分配这些新获得的利润。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTgwMjQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyNTg5NDQ3NS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F798024%2Fgettyimages-1125894475.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>15 billion reasons to love Qualcomm stock right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在爱上 Qualcomm 股票的 15 亿个理由</h2>
</div><p>As part of its recent earnings report, Qualcomm's management announced that the company's board of directors approved a $15 billion stock buyback program. I like this idea, and I find this move as an enticing way to deploy some of the company's excess cash flow in a way that rewards shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为其最近财报的一部分，Qualcomm 的管理层宣布公司的董事会批准了一项 150 亿美元的股票回购计划。我喜欢这个想法，我认为这一举措是利用公司多余现金流的一种诱人方式，以回报股东。</p>
</div><h2>Is Qualcomm stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在 Qualcomm 股票值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>In the chart below, I've benchmarked Qualcomm against a peer set of other semiconductor stocks using the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple. I see the forward P/E as a useful benchmark because it can help indicate how a company's outlook is perceived relative to its peers. With a forward P/E of just 14.3, investors appear to be placing a considerable discount on Qualcomm's growth prospects when compared to many of its cohorts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下面的图表中，我将 Qualcomm 与其他半导体股票的同行进行基准比较，使用前瞻市盈率（P/E）倍数。我认为前瞻市盈率是一个有用的基准，因为它可以帮助指示公司前景相对于同行的看法。以仅 14.3 的前瞻市盈率来看，投资者似乎对 Qualcomm 的增长前景给予了相当大的折扣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5b1e112536045073c67a3dce0f34cd67.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5b1e112536045073c67a3dce0f34cd67.png"/></p>
<p>QCOM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QCOM 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Fundamentally speaking, the valuation trends illustrated in the chart would suggest that Qualcomm could be seen as an undervalued opportunity among the broader semiconductor stock landscape. When you combine the new $15 billion share repurchase program on top of these trends, I tend to think that Qualcomm's management sees this dynamic and believes the stock is undervalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从基本面来看，图表中所示的估值趋势表明，Qualcomm 可能被视为更广泛半导体股票市场中的一个被低估的机会。当你将新的 150 亿美元股票回购计划与这些趋势结合起来时，我倾向于认为 Qualcomm 的管理层看到了这种动态，并相信该股票被低估。</p>
</div><p>While Son's assessment of Nvidia's potential could be accurate, I see Qualcomm stock as a more compelling opportunity right now given its valuation disparity compared to peers. To me, Qualcomm is trading at a bargain and I think the stock is a no-brainer right now for investors with a long-term time horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然孙正义对 Nvidia 潜力的评估可能是准确的，但考虑到与同行相比的估值差异，我认为 Qualcomm 股票现在是一个更具吸引力的机会。在我看来，Qualcomm 的交易价格非常划算，我认为对于有长期投资视野的投资者来说，这只股票是一个毫无疑问的选择。</p>
</div>

SoftBank's Masayoshi Son Says Nvidia Stock Is Undervalued. Here's Another Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock I Think Is a Better Bargain.

- 半导体是推动人工智能的关键基础设施，Nvidia 在该领域占据主导地位。  
- Qualcomm 在转型中实现了收入和盈利的显著增长，且股东回购计划增强了吸引力。  
- 相较于同行，Qualcomm 的估值被低估，适合长期投资者。  

软银的孙正义表示英伟达的股票被低估了。这里有另一只我认为更具投资价值的人工智能（AI）股票