<p><strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 0.97%) 是一个价格加权指数，追踪 30 家美国公司。虽然纳入该指数并没有严格的规则，但指数委员会倾向于选择具有三种特质的股票：卓越的声誉、持续的增长和广泛的投资者关注。</p>
<p>在 11 月 8 日，半导体公司 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -3.22%) 做了一件前所未有的事情：它加入了道琼斯工业平均指数。<strong>舍温 - 威廉姆斯</strong> 同时被纳入该指数，而芯片制造商 <strong>英特尔</strong> 和特种化学品生产商 <strong>陶氏</strong> 则被移除。</p>
<p>重要的是，虽然纳入这一标志性指数具有验证意义，但对收入和盈利等商业基本面没有影响。但股票在加入道琼斯后的第一年通常会产生正回报。这对英伟达的股东意味着什么呢？</p>
<h2><strong>历史数据显示英伟达的股票在未来 12 个月可能回报 12%</strong></h2>
<p>道琼斯工业平均指数首次引入于 1896 年，自创立以来其组成变化不频繁。除了英伟达和舍温 - 威廉姆斯，以及今年早些时候加入的 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，最近的变化是在四年前，当时 <strong>安进</strong>、<strong>霍尼韦尔</strong>、<strong>Salesforce</strong> 和 <strong>RTX</strong>（前身为雷神科技）于 2020 年被纳入该指数。</p>
<p>此外，除去今年新增的三家公司，过去 15 年中只有 14 家公司加入了道琼斯。它们的股票在纳入该指数后的 12 个月内回报中位数为 9%。我们可以将这些信息应用于英伟达，以对其未来几个月的股票表现做出合理的猜测。</p>
<p>具体来说，英伟达在 11 月 8 日加入道琼斯时，开盘价接近每股 149 美元。如果其股价上涨与历史中位数完全一致，英伟达将在 2025 年 11 月以每股 162 美元交易。这意味着从当前 145 美元的股价来看，有 12% 的上涨空间。</p>
<p>历史还提供了另一个有趣的见解。虽然最近 14 只股票在加入道琼斯后的前 12 个月回报中位数为 9%，但 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) 在同一时期的回报中位数为 17%。因此，大多数股票在加入道琼斯后的 12 个月内表现不及标准普尔 500。</p>
<p>当然，英伟达未来的股价不能仅通过回顾历史来确定。股票在未来一年（及更长时间）的表现取决于公司的财务结果和投资者情绪。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg3MTcvZmluYW5jaWFscy04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg3MTcvZmluYW5jaWFscy04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达的人工智能专业知识涵盖硬件和软件</h2>
<p>英伟达的图形处理单元（GPU）是加速复杂数据中心任务（如训练机器学习模型和运行人工智能（AI）应用）的行业标准。事实上，<strong>Forrester Research</strong> 的分析师甚至写道：&#34;没有英伟达的 GPU，现代人工智能将不可能实现。&#34;</p>
<p>英伟达在第三季度报告了出色的财务业绩，收入和盈利均超出预期。收入增长 94%，达到 350 亿美元，非公认会计原则（GAAP）下的每股稀释收益激增 103%，达到 0.81 美元。英伟达的收益已经连续六个季度以三位数的速度增长。当然，这一趋势不可能无限持续，但投资者仍然有充分理由保持乐观。</p>
<p>首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯在财报电话会议上强调了对 Hopper GPU 的强劲需求，表示 H200 的销售速度比公司历史上任何其他产品都要快。她还表示，下一代 Blackwell GPU 已全面生产，&#34;需求惊人&#34;。与 Hopper 相比，Blackwell 芯片在处理 AI 训练任务时速度快四倍，在处理 AI 推理任务时速度快 30 倍。</p>
<p>克雷斯还讨论了英伟达 AI 企业的强劲接受度，这是一个帮助企业构建和部署广泛 AI 应用的软件平台，从零售推荐系统到客户服务的对话代理。克雷斯告诉分析师，英伟达 AI 企业软件的全年收入将在当前年度翻倍。她还表示，软件和服务的收入将在年末达到超过 20 亿美元的年化收入水平。</p>
<p>提到这些产品，我的目的是让读者意识到英伟达在硬件和软件上实现 AI 货币化的关键优势。确实，<strong>Jefferies</strong> 的布莱恩·柯蒂斯强调了这一竞争壁垒。他在给客户的报告中写道：&#34;英伟达在硬件和软件方面控制着生态系统，他们当前的新一代产品发布节奏将进一步扩大这一领先优势。&#34;</p>
<p>展望未来，华尔街预计英伟达的调整后收益将在 2027 财年（截至 2027 年 1 月）以每年 38% 的速度增长。这使得当前 56 倍的调整后收益估值显得合理。诚然，华尔街对英伟达设定了较高的标准，如果公司未能达到这些预期，股价可能会大幅下跌。</p>
<p>即便如此，耐心的投资者如果能接受波动，应该考虑今天购买一些股票，尽管新加入道琼斯的股票在历史上在其加入后的第一年表现不及标准普尔 500。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达已加入道琼斯工业平均指数，这标志着这家半导体公司迈出了重要的一步。历史上，加入道琼斯的股票在其首年通常会实现 9% 的中位回报，而根据历史趋势，英伟达可能会看到 12% 的上涨。该公司报告称，收入增长了 94%，盈利激增了 103%，这得益于对其 GPU 的强劲需求。分析师预测，英伟达的盈利将在 2027 财年之前每年增长 38%，这支持了其当前 56 倍调整后盈利的估值</p>

<p>The <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 0.97%) is a price-weighted index that tracks 30 U.S. companies. While inclusion is not based on strict rules, the index committee tends to select stocks that have three qualities: an excellent reputation, sustained growth, and widespread interest among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 0.97%) 是一个价格加权指数，追踪 30 家美国公司。虽然纳入该指数并没有严格的规则，但指数委员会倾向于选择具有三种特质的股票：卓越的声誉、持续的增长和广泛的投资者关注。</p>
</div><p>On Nov. 8, semiconductor company <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.22%) did something it has never done before: It joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average. <strong>Sherwin-Williams</strong> was added to the index at the same time, while chipmaker <strong>Intel</strong> and specialty chemicals producer <strong>Dow</strong> were removed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 11 月 8 日，半导体公司 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -3.22%) 做了一件前所未有的事情：它加入了道琼斯工业平均指数。<strong>舍温 - 威廉姆斯</strong> 同时被纳入该指数，而芯片制造商 <strong>英特尔</strong> 和特种化学品生产商 <strong>陶氏</strong> 则被移除。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, while inclusion in the iconic index is validating, it has no bearing on business fundamentals like revenue and earnings. But stocks have generally produced positive returns during their first year in the Dow. Here's what that might mean for Nvidia shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，虽然纳入这一标志性指数具有验证意义，但对收入和盈利等商业基本面没有影响。但股票在加入道琼斯后的第一年通常会产生正回报。这对英伟达的股东意味着什么呢？</p>
</div><h2><strong>History says Nvidia's stock could return 12% over the next 12 months</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>历史数据显示英伟达的股票在未来 12 个月可能回报 12%</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first introduced in 1896, and its composition has changed infrequently since its inception. Apart from Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams, and the addition of <strong>Amazon</strong> earlier this year, the most recent changes were made four years ago, when <strong>Amgen</strong>, <strong>Honeywell</strong>, <strong>Salesforce</strong>, and <strong>RTX</strong> (formerly Raytheon Technologies) were added to the index in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯工业平均指数首次引入于 1896 年，自创立以来其组成变化不频繁。除了英伟达和舍温 - 威廉姆斯，以及今年早些时候加入的 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，最近的变化是在四年前，当时 <strong>安进</strong>、<strong>霍尼韦尔</strong>、<strong>Salesforce</strong> 和 <strong>RTX</strong>（前身为雷神科技）于 2020 年被纳入该指数。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, excluding the three added this year, only 14 companies have joined the Dow Jones in the last 15 years. And their stocks returned a median of 9% during the 12-month period following their inclusion in the index. We can apply that information to Nvidia to make an educated guess about how the stock may perform in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，除去今年新增的三家公司，过去 15 年中只有 14 家公司加入了道琼斯。它们的股票在纳入该指数后的 12 个月内回报中位数为 9%。我们可以将这些信息应用于英伟达，以对其未来几个月的股票表现做出合理的猜测。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, Nvidia traded near $149 per share when the market opened on Nov. 8, the day the company was added to the Dow Jones. If its share price appreciation aligns precisely with the historical median, Nvidia will trade at $162 per share in November 2025. That implies 12% upside from its current share price of $145.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体来说，英伟达在 11 月 8 日加入道琼斯时，开盘价接近每股 149 美元。如果其股价上涨与历史中位数完全一致，英伟达将在 2025 年 11 月以每股 162 美元交易。这意味着从当前 145 美元的股价来看，有 12% 的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>History also offers another interesting insight. While the last 14 stocks returned a median of 9% during their first 12 months in the Dow, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) returned a median of 17% during the same period. So, most stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 during the 12 months following their inclusion in the Dow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史还提供了另一个有趣的见解。虽然最近 14 只股票在加入道琼斯后的前 12 个月回报中位数为 9%，但 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) 在同一时期的回报中位数为 17%。因此，大多数股票在加入道琼斯后的 12 个月内表现不及标准普尔 500。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Nvidia's future share price cannot be determined by looking backward. How the stock performs during the next year (and beyond) depends on the company's financial results and investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，英伟达未来的股价不能仅通过回顾历史来确定。股票在未来一年（及更长时间）的表现取决于公司的财务结果和投资者情绪。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg3MTcvZmluYW5jaWFscy04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F798717%2Ffinancials-8.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's AI expertise spans hardware and software</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的人工智能专业知识涵盖硬件和软件</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are the industry standard in accelerating complex data center tasks like training machine learning models and running artificial intelligence (AI) applications. In fact, analysts at <strong>Forrester Research</strong> went so far as to write, &#34;Without Nvidia's GPUs, modern AI wouldn't be possible.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的图形处理单元（GPU）是加速复杂数据中心任务（如训练机器学习模型和运行人工智能（AI）应用）的行业标准。事实上，<strong>Forrester Research</strong> 的分析师甚至写道：&#34;没有英伟达的 GPU，现代人工智能将不可能实现。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Nvidia reported excellent financial results in the third quarter, blowing by estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 94% to $35 billion, and non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings surged 103% to $0.81 per diluted share. Nvidia's earnings have now increased at a triple-digit pace for six consecutive quarters. Of course, that trend cannot go on indefinitely, but investors still have good reason to be optimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在第三季度报告了出色的财务业绩，收入和盈利均超出预期。收入增长 94%，达到 350 亿美元，非公认会计原则（GAAP）下的每股稀释收益激增 103%，达到 0.81 美元。英伟达的收益已经连续六个季度以三位数的速度增长。当然，这一趋势不可能无限持续，但投资者仍然有充分理由保持乐观。</p>
</div><p>CFO Colette Kress on the earnings call highlighted strong demand for Hopper GPUs, saying that H200 sales have ramped more quickly than any other product in company history. She also said the next-generation Blackwell GPU is in full production, and that &#34;demand is staggering.&#34; Compared to Hopper, Blackwell chips can handle AI training tasks up to four times faster, and they can handle AI inference tasks up to 30 times faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯在财报电话会议上强调了对 Hopper GPU 的强劲需求，表示 H200 的销售速度比公司历史上任何其他产品都要快。她还表示，下一代 Blackwell GPU 已全面生产，&#34;需求惊人&#34;。与 Hopper 相比，Blackwell 芯片在处理 AI 训练任务时速度快四倍，在处理 AI 推理任务时速度快 30 倍。</p>
</div><p>Kress also discussed the strong uptake of Nvidia AI Enterprise, a software platform that helps businesses build and deploy a broad range of AI applications, from recommender systems for retail to conversational agents for customer service. Kress told analysts that full-year revenue from Nvidia AI Enterprise software would more than double in the current year. She also said software and services revenue would exit the year at an annual run rate exceeding $2 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克雷斯还讨论了英伟达 AI 企业的强劲接受度，这是一个帮助企业构建和部署广泛 AI 应用的软件平台，从零售推荐系统到客户服务的对话代理。克雷斯告诉分析师，英伟达 AI 企业软件的全年收入将在当前年度翻倍。她还表示，软件和服务的收入将在年末达到超过 20 亿美元的年化收入水平。</p>
</div><p>In mentioning all these products, my goal is to impress upon readers that Nvidia has a key advantage in its ability to monetize AI across hardware and software. Indeed, Blayne Curtis at <strong>Jefferies</strong> highlighted that competitive moat. &#34;Nvidia is in control of the ecosystem on both the hardware and software front, and their current cadence of new generations should make that lead only growth further,&#34; he wrote in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>提到这些产品，我的目的是让读者意识到英伟达在硬件和软件上实现 AI 货币化的关键优势。确实，<strong>Jefferies</strong> 的布莱恩·柯蒂斯强调了这一竞争壁垒。他在给客户的报告中写道：&#34;英伟达在硬件和软件方面控制着生态系统，他们当前的新一代产品发布节奏将进一步扩大这一领先优势。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street estimates Nvidia's adjusted earnings will grow at 38% annually through fiscal 2027, which ends in January 2027. That makes the current valuation of 56 times adjusted earnings look reasonable. Admittedly, Wall Street has set Nvidia with a high bar, and the stock could plunge if the company fails to meet those expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，华尔街预计英伟达的调整后收益将在 2027 财年（截至 2027 年 1 月）以每年 38% 的速度增长。这使得当前 56 倍的调整后收益估值显得合理。诚然，华尔街对英伟达设定了较高的标准，如果公司未能达到这些预期，股价可能会大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Even so, patient investors comfortable with volatility should consider buying a few shares today, even though new Dow Jones stocks have historically underperformed the S&amp;P 500 during their first year in the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，耐心的投资者如果能接受波动，应该考虑今天购买一些股票，尽管新加入道琼斯的股票在历史上在其加入后的第一年表现不及标准普尔 500。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Just Did Something It Has Never Done Before. History Says the AI Stock Could Do This Next.

- 道琼斯工业平均指数新增英伟达和舍温 - 威廉姆斯，移除英特尔和陶氏。  
- 英伟达股价在加入后可能上涨 12%，历史数据显示新股回报率为 9%。  
- 英伟达在 AI 领域具备优势，预计 2027 财年调整后收益年增 38%。

英伟达股票刚刚创下了前所未有的记录。历史表明，这只 AI 股票接下来可能会有这样的表现