<p>沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.99%）（BRK.B 0.95%）近年来一直是 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.59%）最大的股东之一。巴菲特最初在 2016 年底投资苹果，到 2023 年底，伯克希尔持有价值 1740 亿美元的苹果股票。</p>
<p>但似乎有些事情改变了巴菲特对苹果投资的看法。截至第三季度，伯克希尔的苹果股份已减少至 3 亿股，低于 2023 年超过 9.05 亿股的持股量。今年早些时候，巴菲特表示，&#34;除非发生真正非凡的事情，&#34;否则伯克希尔在他不再担任首席执行官时仍会持有苹果股票。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，其他亿万富翁投资者在第三季度也在购买苹果股票，包括维京全球投资公司的奥尔·安德烈亚斯·哈尔沃森和埃格顿资本的约翰·阿米塔奇。这些混合信号引发了一个问题：苹果仍然是一个有吸引力的投资吗，还是应该跟随巴菲特的脚步，获利了结？</p>
<h2>苹果的增长前景</h2>
<p>苹果在 2024 财年的总销售额同比仅增长 2%（该财年于 9 月结束），但许多投资者在苹果推出新人工智能（AI）功能后纷纷涌入该股票。该公司在 10 月刚刚发布了苹果智能，但投资者预计销售增长将改善，尽管苹果设备系列的销售增长缓慢，股票价格年初至今已上涨近 19%。</p>
<p>此次 AI 更新被视为 iPhone 的主要催化剂，iPhone 的收入占公司总收入的一半以上。投资者预计更多的 iPhone 用户将升级到最新产品，这些产品配备了更强大的处理器，能够运行苹果智能。AI 功能需要至少配备 M1 处理器或更高版本的苹果设备。对苹果设备的更高需求也将推动对服务的需求，而服务的毛利率是设备的两倍。</p>
<p>正因如此，华尔街分析师预计苹果的年度收入增长将在 2025 财年改善至超过 5%，并在 2026 财年加速至超过 8%。每股收益预计将以接近 10% 的年化速度略快于收入增长，考虑到高毛利率的服务现在对苹果的总销售额贡献更高。</p>
<h2>股票的估值如何？</h2>
<p>苹果拥有极强的品牌和忠诚的客户基础。其活跃设备的安装基础在最近一个季度达到了历史新高。巴菲特提到产品与客户之间的粘性关系是他最初投资苹果的一个重要原因，如果说有什么变化，苹果智能将使这种关系更加紧密。考虑到他过去的观点，巴菲特突然决定抛售超过一半的伯克希尔投资实在令人惊讶。</p>
<p>巴菲特并不以因为股票稍微昂贵就出售赢家而闻名，但苹果的估值开始显得有些过高。该股票的市盈率（P/E）高达 37，而 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均市盈率为 30。在这些水平上，投资者不应期待苹果的市盈率进一步上升，这意味着未来的回报将必须来自公司的盈利增长。</p>
<p>在 5 月的伯克希尔股东大会上，巴菲特提到在当前市场条件下，他并不介意建立更大的现金头寸。这可能仍然解释了他为何继续出售苹果，尽管在抛售超过一半的头寸后，苹果仍然是伯克希尔最大的投资。其他购买该股票的亿万富翁显然是在押注苹果将报告比市场共识预期更好的盈利增长，从而证明当前的估值是合理的。</p>
<p>投资者可以找到其他大型科技公司，其盈利增长速度快于苹果，且估值较低，因此可能提供更好的回报前景。出于这个原因，我现在不会称该股票为买入，但如果我已经持有股票，我也不会跟随巴菲特出售，因为他可能有独特的理由出售，考虑到年初投资的巨大规模。</p>
<p>目前，我会将苹果视为持有，因为其在人工智能领域的推进可能会带来意外的上行惊喜，正如优秀企业通常所做的那样。</p>

苹果

<p>沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦在 2023 年第三季度将其苹果股份从超过 9.05 亿股减少至 3 亿股，这引发了对该投资吸引力的质疑。尽管销售增长乏力，苹果的股票今年已上涨近 19%，这主要得益于新的人工智能功能。分析师预计收入增长将改善，但苹果 37 的高市盈率暗示未来回报有限。虽然巴菲特的减持可能表明谨慎，但其他亿万富翁正在买入，押注于更好的收益。建议持有苹果股票，因为其人工智能推动可能带来积极的意外</p>

<p>Warren Buffett's <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.99%) (BRK.B 0.95%) has been one of <strong>Apple</strong>'s (AAPL 0.59%) largest shareholders in recent years. Buffett originally invested in Apple in late 2016, and by the end of 2023, Buffett's Berkshire held $174 billion worth of shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.99%）（BRK.B 0.95%）近年来一直是 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.59%）最大的股东之一。巴菲特最初在 2016 年底投资苹果，到 2023 年底，伯克希尔持有价值 1740 亿美元的苹果股票。</p>
</div><p>But something seems to have changed Buffett's thinking toward the Apple investment. As of the third quarter, Berkshire's Apple stake had been cut to 300 million shares, down from over 905 million shares in 2023. Earlier this year, Buffett said that, &#34;unless something really extraordinary happens,&#34; Berkshire would still own Apple shares when he was no longer CEO.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但似乎有些事情改变了巴菲特对苹果投资的看法。截至第三季度，伯克希尔的苹果股份已减少至 3 亿股，低于 2023 年超过 9.05 亿股的持股量。今年早些时候，巴菲特表示，&#34;除非发生真正非凡的事情，&#34;否则伯克希尔在他不再担任首席执行官时仍会持有苹果股票。</p>
</div><p>It's worth noting that other billionaire investors were buying Apple shares in Q3, including Ole Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global Investors and John Armitage of Egerton Capital. These mixed signals beg the question: Is Apple still an attractive investment, or should you follow Buffett's lead and take some profits?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，其他亿万富翁投资者在第三季度也在购买苹果股票，包括维京全球投资公司的奥尔·安德烈亚斯·哈尔沃森和埃格顿资本的约翰·阿米塔奇。这些混合信号引发了一个问题：苹果仍然是一个有吸引力的投资吗，还是应该跟随巴菲特的脚步，获利了结？</p>
</div><h2>Apple's growth prospects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的增长前景</h2>
</div><p>Apple's total sales grew just 2% year over year in fiscal 2024 (which ended in September), but many investors have plowed into the stock this year after Apple unveiled new artificial intelligence (AI) features for its devices. The company just released Apple Intelligence in October, but investors are expecting improving sales growth, and the stock price has climbed nearly 19% year to date despite sluggish sales growth for Apple's device lineup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在 2024 财年的总销售额同比仅增长 2%（该财年于 9 月结束），但许多投资者在苹果推出新人工智能（AI）功能后纷纷涌入该股票。该公司在 10 月刚刚发布了苹果智能，但投资者预计销售增长将改善，尽管苹果设备系列的销售增长缓慢，股票价格年初至今已上涨近 19%。</p>
</div><p>The AI update is seen as a major catalyst for iPhone specifically, which generates over half the company's revenue. Investors expect more iPhone users to upgrade to the latest products that have more powerful processors capable of running Apple Intelligence. The AI features require an Apple device with at least an M1 processor or later version. Higher demand for Apple devices would also fuel more demand for services, which generate double the gross profit margin compared to devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次 AI 更新被视为 iPhone 的主要催化剂，iPhone 的收入占公司总收入的一半以上。投资者预计更多的 iPhone 用户将升级到最新产品，这些产品配备了更强大的处理器，能够运行苹果智能。AI 功能需要至少配备 M1 处理器或更高版本的苹果设备。对苹果设备的更高需求也将推动对服务的需求，而服务的毛利率是设备的两倍。</p>
</div><p>It's for these reasons that Wall Street analysts expect Apple's annual revenue growth to improve to over 5% in fiscal 2025 before accelerating to over 8% in fiscal 2026. Earnings per share is expected to grow slightly faster at nearly 10% on annualized basis, given that higher-margin services now contribute at a higher rate to Apple's total sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正因如此，华尔街分析师预计苹果的年度收入增长将在 2025 财年改善至超过 5%，并在 2026 财年加速至超过 8%。每股收益预计将以接近 10% 的年化速度略快于收入增长，考虑到高毛利率的服务现在对苹果的总销售额贡献更高。</p>
</div><h2>What about the stock's valuation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票的估值如何？</h2>
</div><p>Apple has an incredibly strong brand and a loyal customer base. Its installed base of active devices reached another all-time high in the most recent quarter. Buffett cited the sticky relationship between the product and customer as a big reason why he originally invested in Apple, and if anything, Apple Intelligence will make the relationship even stickier. Given his stated views in the past, it is quite surprising that Buffett has suddenly decided to dump over half of Berkshire's investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果拥有极强的品牌和忠诚的客户基础。其活跃设备的安装基础在最近一个季度达到了历史新高。巴菲特提到产品与客户之间的粘性关系是他最初投资苹果的一个重要原因，如果说有什么变化，苹果智能将使这种关系更加紧密。考虑到他过去的观点，巴菲特突然决定抛售超过一半的伯克希尔投资实在令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>Buffett is not known to sell his winners just because they are a little expensive, but Apple's valuation is starting to look somewhat frothy. The shares fetch a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37, compared to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> average P/E of 30. At these levels, an investor shouldn't expect Apple's P/E to move higher, which means future returns will have to come from the company's earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特并不以因为股票稍微昂贵就出售赢家而闻名，但苹果的估值开始显得有些过高。该股票的市盈率（P/E）高达 37，而 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均市盈率为 30。在这些水平上，投资者不应期待苹果的市盈率进一步上升，这意味着未来的回报将必须来自公司的盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>At the Berkshire shareholders' meeting in May, Buffett mentioned that under current market conditions, he didn't mind building a larger cash position. That might still explain why he has continued to sell Apple, which remains Berkshire's largest investment even after dumping over half the position. Other billionaires that are buying the stock are clearly making the bet that Apple is going to report better earnings growth than the consensus estimate and justify the current valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月的伯克希尔股东大会上，巴菲特提到在当前市场条件下，他并不介意建立更大的现金头寸。这可能仍然解释了他为何继续出售苹果，尽管在抛售超过一半的头寸后，苹果仍然是伯克希尔最大的投资。其他购买该股票的亿万富翁显然是在押注苹果将报告比市场共识预期更好的盈利增长，从而证明当前的估值是合理的。</p>
</div><p>Investors can find other large-cap tech companies growing earnings faster than Apple that trade at lower valuations and therefore might offer better return prospects. For this reason, I wouldn't call the stock a buy right now, but if I already hold shares, I wouldn't follow Buffett and sell either, since he may have unique reasons for selling, given the monumental size of the investment at the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可以找到其他大型科技公司，其盈利增长速度快于苹果，且估值较低，因此可能提供更好的回报前景。出于这个原因，我现在不会称该股票为买入，但如果我已经持有股票，我也不会跟随巴菲特出售，因为他可能有独特的理由出售，考虑到年初投资的巨大规模。</p>
</div><p>For now, I would call Apple a hold, as its push into AI could surprise to the upside, as great businesses usually do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，我会将苹果视为持有，因为其在人工智能领域的推进可能会带来意外的上行惊喜，正如优秀企业通常所做的那样。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Unloaded More Apple Shares in Q3, but Other Billionaires Were Buying. Is It a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- 巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦减持苹果股份至 3 亿股，较 2023 年的 9.05 亿股大幅下降。  
- 尽管苹果销售增长缓慢，投资者仍对其 AI 功能寄予厚望，预计未来收入增长将改善。  
- 苹果的市盈率高于市场平均水平，分析师对其未来表现持谨慎态度，建议持有而非买入。  

沃伦·巴菲特在第三季度出售了更多的苹果股票，但其他亿万富翁却在买入。那么，现在是买入、卖出还是持有苹果股票呢？