<p>2018 年，<strong>苹果</strong> 公司成为美国第一家市值达到 1 万亿美元的上市公司。自那时以来，几家其他公司也达到了这一里程碑，包括几家苹果在科技行业的同行：<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>字母表</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>。这个群体仍然非常独特，但未来几年将会有更多公司加入其中。其中之一可能是 <strong>Shopify</strong>（SHOP 0.45%），这是一家目前市值为 1350 亿美元的电子商务专家。</p>
<p>Shopify 在未来 15 年内需要至少 14.3% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）才能成为一只万亿美元股票。这并不是一项容易的任务，但让我们来看看为什么 Shopify 能够做到这一点。</p>
<h2>一家有愿景的创始人领导公司</h2>
<p>Shopify 的创建旨在解决企业在开设在线商店时面临的真实痛点，这些企业有时不得不应对设计挑战、缺乏灵活性和其他问题。Shopify 改变了这一点。这家电子商务专家几乎提供了商家所需的一切，从数百个可定制的模板和支付处理到库存、社交媒体工具、营销等。</p>
<p>此外，还有一个内置系统为商家提供了更多选择。Shopify 的应用商店拥有数千个应用程序，满足客户的超具体需求。自 2015 年上市以来，在联合创始人托比亚斯·吕特克的领导下，Shopify 的年复合增长率远高于未来 15 年内成为万亿美元股票所需的增长率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9286656f08122143075d79dc58f924c4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9286656f08122143075d79dc58f924c4.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 SHOP 总回报水平数据。</p>
<p>学术文献中有一些证据表明，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 中的创始人领导公司表现优于其他公司。当查看万亿美元公司的名单时，很难反驳这一观点。英伟达和 Meta Platforms 仍由其联合创始人领导。亚马逊直到最近也是由创始人领导，而微软和苹果在创始人（或联合创始人）担任首席执行官期间也有过很长时间的任期。</p>
<p>Shopify 遵循相同的蓝图并不能保证成功，但值得指出的是，这家电子商务专家的目标是成为一家百年公司。能够接近这一目标的公司屈指可数，但 Shopify 已经有了一个相当不错的开端。</p>
<h2>巨大的白色空间在前</h2>
<p>Shopify 面临的一个问题是缺乏盈利能力。该公司最近对其业务进行了调整，帮助改善了这一情况。Shopify 出售了其物流业务，这是一个低利润的部门，影响了其底线。自那时以来，该公司的利润率和利润状况大为改善。在第三季度，Shopify 的收入同比增长 26%，达到 22 亿美元。Shopify 的净收入同比增长 15%，达到 8.28 亿美元。</p>
<p>其自由现金流利润率为 19%，高于去年同期报告的 16%。Shopify 在今年的每个季度中都逐步提高了自由现金流利润率。难怪该股今年迄今大幅上涨。更重要的是，Shopify 仍然面临广阔的发展前景。电子商务行业的增长将在未来十年及更长时间内为公司提供强劲的助力。它使人们能够与那些原本无法接触的消费者或公司进行交易。</p>
<p>这也帮助企业节省了间接成本，这些节省可以转嫁给消费者。尽管电子商务似乎无处不在，但仍然有巨大的增长空间。在美国，第三季度在线交易仅占零售总销售额的 16.2%。此外，Shopify 还受益于竞争优势。其应用商店具有网络效应：生态系统内的开发者越多，商家就越能吸引，反之亦然。公司的主要电子商务产品受益于转换成本。</p>
<p>因此，Shopify 具备了长期提供超越市场回报所需的许多特质：盈利增长、长期愿景、丰富的机会，以及保护其在细分市场中领导地位的护城河。该公司看起来正朝着在 15 年内成为万亿美元股票的目标稳步前进。</p>

SHOP

<p>Shopify（SHOP）有望在 2040 年之前加入万亿美元俱乐部，紧随苹果和亚马逊等科技巨头的步伐。该公司的市值为数十亿美元，未来 15 年需要实现 14.3% 的年均增长率才能达到这一里程碑。自 2015 年上市以来，Shopify 表现出强劲的增长，最近通过出售其低利润的物流业务来改善盈利能力。随着电子商务市场的不断增长以及通过其应用商店所获得的竞争优势，Shopify 在长期成功和盈利能力方面具备良好的条件</p>

<p>In 2018, <strong>Apple</strong> famously became the first publicly traded company in the U.S. to hit a $1 trillion valuation. Since then, several more have hit that milestone, including several of Apple's peers in the tech industry: <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>. This group remains highly exclusive, but many more corporations will join in the coming years. One of them could be <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 0.45%), an e-commerce specialist currently sporting a market cap of $135 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2018 年，<strong>苹果</strong> 公司成为美国第一家市值达到 1 万亿美元的上市公司。自那时以来，几家其他公司也达到了这一里程碑，包括几家苹果在科技行业的同行：<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>字母表</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>。这个群体仍然非常独特，但未来几年将会有更多公司加入其中。其中之一可能是 <strong>Shopify</strong>（SHOP 0.45%），这是一家目前市值为 1350 亿美元的电子商务专家。</p>
</div><p>Shopify needs a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of at least 14.3% in the next 15 years to become a trillion-dollar stock. That's not an easy task, but let's find out why Shopify can pull it off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 在未来 15 年内需要至少 14.3% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）才能成为一只万亿美元股票。这并不是一项容易的任务，但让我们来看看为什么 Shopify 能够做到这一点。</p>
</div><h2>A founder-led company with a vision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家有愿景的创始人领导公司</h2>
</div><p>Shopify was created to address a real pain point for businesses trying to open online storefronts, which sometimes had to deal with design challenges, lack of flexibility, and other issues. Shopify changed that. The e-commerce specialist offers practically everything merchants need all in one spot, from hundreds of customizable templates and payment processing to inventory, social media tools, marketing, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 的创建旨在解决企业在开设在线商店时面临的真实痛点，这些企业有时不得不应对设计挑战、缺乏灵活性和其他问题。Shopify 改变了这一点。这家电子商务专家几乎提供了商家所需的一切，从数百个可定制的模板和支付处理到库存、社交媒体工具、营销等。</p>
</div><p>Further, there is a built-in system that gives merchants many more options. Shopify's app store is home to thousands of apps that cater to its customers' ultra-specific needs. Since its 2015 IPO and with co-founder Tobias Lütke at the helm, Shopify has grown at a CAGR well above what it would need in the next 15 years to become a trillion-dollar stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，还有一个内置系统为商家提供了更多选择。Shopify 的应用商店拥有数千个应用程序，满足客户的超具体需求。自 2015 年上市以来，在联合创始人托比亚斯·吕特克的领导下，Shopify 的年复合增长率远高于未来 15 年内成为万亿美元股票所需的增长率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9286656f08122143075d79dc58f924c4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9286656f08122143075d79dc58f924c4.png"/></p>
<p>SHOP Total Return Level data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 SHOP 总回报水平数据。</p>
</div><p>There is some evidence in the academic literature that founder-led companies in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> outperform the rest. It's hard to argue that point when looking at the list of trillion-dollar companies. Nvidia and Meta Platforms are still headed by their co-founders. Amazon was also founder-led until relatively recently, and Microsoft and Apple did have long stints with their respective founders (or co-founders) as CEOs before they stepped down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>学术文献中有一些证据表明，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 中的创始人领导公司表现优于其他公司。当查看万亿美元公司的名单时，很难反驳这一观点。英伟达和 Meta Platforms 仍由其联合创始人领导。亚马逊直到最近也是由创始人领导，而微软和苹果在创始人（或联合创始人）担任首席执行官期间也有过很长时间的任期。</p>
</div><p>Shopify following the same blueprint is no guarantee of success, but it's worth pointing out that the e-commerce specialist has made it its goal to become a 100-year company. Few can come anywhere close to that, but Shopify is off to a pretty good start.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 遵循相同的蓝图并不能保证成功，但值得指出的是，这家电子商务专家的目标是成为一家百年公司。能够接近这一目标的公司屈指可数，但 Shopify 已经有了一个相当不错的开端。</p>
</div><h2>Massive white space ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的白色空间在前</h2>
</div><p>One issue Shopify had was a lack of profitability. The company recently made some changes to its business that are helping on that front. Shopify sold its logistics business, a low-margin unit that was harming its bottom line. Since then, the company's margins and profits have looked much better. In the third quarter, Shopify's revenue grew by 26% year over year to $2.2 billion. Shopify's net income was up 15% year over year to $828 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 面临的一个问题是缺乏盈利能力。该公司最近对其业务进行了调整，帮助改善了这一情况。Shopify 出售了其物流业务，这是一个低利润的部门，影响了其底线。自那时以来，该公司的利润率和利润状况大为改善。在第三季度，Shopify 的收入同比增长 26%，达到 22 亿美元。Shopify 的净收入同比增长 15%，达到 8.28 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>It had a 19% free cash flow margin, up from the 16% reported in the prior-year quarter. Shopify has increased its free cash flow margin sequentially during every quarter this year. No wonder the stock is up substantially year to date. More importantly, Shopify is still looking at a vast runway ahead. The growth of the e-commerce industry should provide the company with a powerful tailwind in the next decade and beyond. It allows people to do business with consumers or companies that would otherwise be beyond their reach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其自由现金流利润率为 19%，高于去年同期报告的 16%。Shopify 在今年的每个季度中都逐步提高了自由现金流利润率。难怪该股今年迄今大幅上涨。更重要的是，Shopify 仍然面临广阔的发展前景。电子商务行业的增长将在未来十年及更长时间内为公司提供强劲的助力。它使人们能够与那些原本无法接触的消费者或公司进行交易。</p>
</div><p>It also helps businesses save money on overhead costs, savings they can pass on to consumers. And despite its seeming ubiquity, e-commerce still has miles of growth left. Online transactions accounted for just 16.2% of total retail sales in the third quarter in the U.S. Further, Shopify benefits from a competitive advantage. Its app store has a network effect: The more developers within its ecosystem, the more it attracts merchants, and vice versa. The company's main e-commerce offering benefits from switching costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也帮助企业节省了间接成本，这些节省可以转嫁给消费者。尽管电子商务似乎无处不在，但仍然有巨大的增长空间。在美国，第三季度在线交易仅占零售总销售额的 16.2%。此外，Shopify 还受益于竞争优势。其应用商店具有网络效应：生态系统内的开发者越多，商家就越能吸引，反之亦然。公司的主要电子商务产品受益于转换成本。</p>
</div><p>So, Shopify has many of the traits necessary to deliver market-beating returns over the long run: profitable growth, a long-term vision, plenty of opportunities, and a moat that will protect its leadership position in its niche. The company looks well on its way to becoming a trillion-dollar stock within 15 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Shopify 具备了长期提供超越市场回报所需的许多特质：盈利增长、长期愿景、丰富的机会，以及保护其在细分市场中领导地位的护城河。该公司看起来正朝着在 15 年内成为万亿美元股票的目标稳步前进。</p>
</div>

1 Unstoppable Growth Stock That Could Join Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft in the Trillion-Dollar Club By 2040

- Shopify 可能成为下一个万亿市值公司，需年均增长 14.3% 以达成目标。  
- 该公司通过整合电商服务和优化业务结构，提升了盈利能力。  
- 电商行业的持续增长和 Shopify 的竞争优势将助力其未来发展。  

到 2040 年，可能加入英伟达、苹果、亚马逊、字母表、Meta 平台和微软的万亿美元俱乐部的一只不可阻挡的增长股