<p>目前市场上最热门的科技股票之一是 <strong>Reddit</strong>(RDDT -7.18%)。自 3 月份首次公开募股（IPO）以来，该公司的股价已经上涨超过 170%，其中大部分涨幅是在 10 月底财报发布后实现的。</p>
<p>该股票的势头使其市值超过 240 亿美元。这一进展让人想起了（虽然是长期的）强大的 <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.59%) 的崛起。是的，Apple 目前的市值接近 3.5 万亿美元，但如果 Reddit 继续受欢迎，或许到本十年末，它的市值可以与这家科技巨头相匹敌，甚至超过。</p>
<h2>一颗迅速崛起的社交媒体明星</h2>
<p>对于那些可能不太熟悉的人来说，Reddit 运营着一个在线论坛，用户可以在其中发布和回应大量主题。这恰好填补了像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google 这样的搜索引擎所留下的空白，后者可以提供快速的查询答案，但通常缺乏深度或讨论。</p>
<p>Reddit 将这一简单概念发展成了一个快速扩张的商业模式。该公司通过广告获得收入，这在社交媒体领域是标准做法，但也通过许可其从用户那里收集的数据和向用户提供付费的 “高级” 会员等活动赚取收入。</p>
<p>那些让市场如此兴奋的第三季度业绩显示，Reddit 的收入同比增长了 68%，超过 3.48 亿美元。更好的是，净利润从去年同期的 700 万美元的亏损转为接近 3000 万美元的盈利。</p>
<p>投资者对这些结果感到兴奋，不仅因为强劲的增长数字，还因为这些数字是如何实现的。Reddit 成功地扩大了用户基础，日均独立用户（DAUs；在更广泛的社交媒体领域更为人知的是日均 <em>用户</em>）激增 47%，超过 9700 万人。</p>
<p>更令人印象深刻的是，该公司在美国本土和海外的增长率和总 DAUs 大致相等。看起来 Reddit 作为一款产品在全球范围内扩展得相当不错。DAUs 等运营指标对广告商非常重要，所有条件相同，更多的常规用户意味着为提供广告的网站带来更多收入。</p>
<p>此外，尽管每用户平均收入（ARPU）的增长并不那么显著，但在全球范围内仍增长了 14%，达到了 3.58 美元。对于公司来说，这是另一个甜蜜的机会，因为其第三季度的 ARPU 在我们这里远远超过国际水平，分别为 5.88 美元和 1.32 美元。随着 Reddit 在海外的受欢迎程度继续上升，其 ARPU 应该会相应提升。</p>
<p>另一个相当有前景的收入来源是数据许可。广告在第三季度占据了大部分（89%）的收入，但 “其他” 收入类别——包括数据许可——则激增了 547%。</p>
<p>虽然我们不应该继续期待如此丰厚的数字，但得益于用户，Reddit 拥有大量数据，而将这些数据用于训练人工智能（AI）的许可仍然是一个处于初期阶段的业务。它无疑在未来具有巨大的潜力。</p>
<h2>一座高耸的山峰</h2>
<p>在如此巨大的逆风推动下，Reddit 现在成为投资者如此热门的对象也就不足为奇了。</p>
<p>然而，成为下一个 Apple——这是许多科技企业家的梦想——就像攀登世界上最高的山峰。那 3.5 万亿美元的市值来自于 Apple 数十年来建立的品牌认知度，几乎全球每个人不仅听说过这家公司，而且对其产品也非常熟悉。</p>
<p>这也源于其首发时一款革命性产品的长期成功——iPhone——以及围绕它建立的盈利生态系统。以这种方式建立业务并不便宜、简单或快速；这需要大量的远见和资本，更不用说运气了。</p>
<p>因此，即使我们给 Reddit 一个宽松的时间来达到 Apple 的高峰，我也认为它不会完全达到那个高度。管理层在锁定商业机会和利用它们方面做得很好且聪明，但广告商是善变的，容易转向下一个新奇事物以吸引潜在客户。数据许可是一个高潜力的业务，当然，但 Reddit 将如何利用这一机会仍有待观察。</p>
<p>最终，Apple 将继续在 Reddit 的相对规模面前显得庞大，无论是在短期还是中期/长期未来。这并不意味着 Reddit 是一只可以忽视的股票，恰恰相反——它因所有正确的原因吸引了市场的注意。如果它继续沿着当前的道路发展，它将成为未来的社交媒体巨头，值得考虑作为一个买入的选择。</p>

RDDT

<p>Reddit 的股票自首次公开募股以来已上涨超过 170%，市值超过 100 亿美元。该公司报告了 68% 的年收入增长，实现了近 1000 万美元的盈利。每日活跃用户增加了 47%，超过 9700 万。尽管 Reddit 的增长令人印象深刻，但分析师警告称，由于建立品牌认知和可持续生态系统的挑战，匹配苹果 2.5 万亿美元市值的可能性不大。然而，Reddit 仍然是一只值得关注的股票，因为它正在探索数据许可等新的收入来源</p>

<p>One of the hottest tech stocks cruising atop the market these days is <strong>Reddit</strong>(RDDT -7.18%). The company has seen its share price balloon by over 170% since its March initial public offering (IPO), with much of that rise coming after its late-October earnings release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前市场上最热门的科技股票之一是 <strong>Reddit</strong>(RDDT -7.18%)。自 3 月份首次公开募股（IPO）以来，该公司的股价已经上涨超过 170%，其中大部分涨幅是在 10 月底财报发布后实现的。</p>
</div><p>The stock's momentum has pushed it to a market cap of over $24 billion. Such an advancement is reminiscent of the (admittedly far more long-term) rise of mighty <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.59%). Yes, Apple is a nearly $3.5 trillion company these days, but if Reddit continues to rise in popularity, maybe it could match or even exceed the tech powerhouse's market value by the end of this decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票的势头使其市值超过 240 亿美元。这一进展让人想起了（虽然是长期的）强大的 <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.59%) 的崛起。是的，Apple 目前的市值接近 3.5 万亿美元，但如果 Reddit 继续受欢迎，或许到本十年末，它的市值可以与这家科技巨头相匹敌，甚至超过。</p>
</div><h2>A sharply rising social media star</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一颗迅速崛起的社交媒体明星</h2>
</div><p>For those who might not be familiar, Reddit operates an online forum in which users post about, and react to, a dizzying number of topics. This neatly fills a niche opened by search engines like <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google, which can provide results that are quick-hit answers to queries, but typically offer little depth or discussion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些可能不太熟悉的人来说，Reddit 运营着一个在线论坛，用户可以在其中发布和回应大量主题。这恰好填补了像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google 这样的搜索引擎所留下的空白，后者可以提供快速的查询答案，但通常缺乏深度或讨论。</p>
</div><p>Reddit has taken that simple concept and built a quickly scaling business from it. The company derives revenue from advertising, which is standard in the social media world, but also earns a buck by licensing the data it harvests from users and offering paid &#34;premium&#34; memberships to the user base, among other activities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Reddit 将这一简单概念发展成了一个快速扩张的商业模式。该公司通过广告获得收入，这在社交媒体领域是标准做法，但也通过许可其从用户那里收集的数据和向用户提供付费的 “高级” 会员等活动赚取收入。</p>
</div><p>Those third-quarter results that got the market so excited revealed that Reddit grew a meaty 68% year over year to more than $348 million. Better, on the bottom line, it flipped to a profit of almost $30 million from a loss of $7 million and change in the year-ago time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些让市场如此兴奋的第三季度业绩显示，Reddit 的收入同比增长了 68%，超过 3.48 亿美元。更好的是，净利润从去年同期的 700 万美元的亏损转为接近 3000 万美元的盈利。</p>
</div><p>Investors got excited about these results, not only because of the hearty growth numbers, but also how they were achieved. Reddit very successfully managed to expand its user base, with daily average uniques (DAUs; better known as daily average <em>users</em> in the broader social media sphere) rocketing 47% higher to over 97 million people.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对这些结果感到兴奋，不仅因为强劲的增长数字，还因为这些数字是如何实现的。Reddit 成功地扩大了用户基础，日均独立用户（DAUs；在更广泛的社交媒体领域更为人知的是日均 <em>用户</em>）激增 47%，超过 9700 万人。</p>
</div><p>More impressively, the growth rates and total DAUs in both the company's native U.S. and abroad were roughly equal. Reddit as a product is scaling admirably well across the planet, it seems. Operational metrics like DAUs matter greatly for advertisers, and all things being equal, a wider, regular user base means more dollars for the site offering the advertising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人印象深刻的是，该公司在美国本土和海外的增长率和总 DAUs 大致相等。看起来 Reddit 作为一款产品在全球范围内扩展得相当不错。DAUs 等运营指标对广告商非常重要，所有条件相同，更多的常规用户意味着为提供广告的网站带来更多收入。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, while average revenue per user (ARPU) didn't grow as impressively, it still grew by 14% on a global basis to $3.58. Here's another sweet opportunity for the company, as its third-quarter ARPU on our shores far exceeded that of the international take, by $5.88 to $1.32. As Reddit's popularity continues to rise abroad, its ARPU should experience a commensurate lift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，尽管每用户平均收入（ARPU）的增长并不那么显著，但在全球范围内仍增长了 14%，达到了 3.58 美元。对于公司来说，这是另一个甜蜜的机会，因为其第三季度的 ARPU 在我们这里远远超过国际水平，分别为 5.88 美元和 1.32 美元。随着 Reddit 在海外的受欢迎程度继续上升，其 ARPU 应该会相应提升。</p>
</div><p>Another rather promising revenue source for Reddit is data licensing. Advertising was responsible for the bulk (89%) of the top line in the third quarter, yet the &#34;other&#34; revenue category -- containing data licensing -- zoomed 547% higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个相当有前景的收入来源是数据许可。广告在第三季度占据了大部分（89%）的收入，但 “其他” 收入类别——包括数据许可——则激增了 547%。</p>
</div><p>While we shouldn't continue to expect such fat numbers, Reddit has a trove of data thanks to its users, and the licensing of this to train artificial intelligence (AI) is still a business in its infancy. It surely has vast potential for the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我们不应该继续期待如此丰厚的数字，但得益于用户，Reddit 拥有大量数据，而将这些数据用于训练人工智能（AI）的许可仍然是一个处于初期阶段的业务。它无疑在未来具有巨大的潜力。</p>
</div><h2>A sky-high mountain to climb</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一座高耸的山峰</h2>
</div><p>With those considerable headwinds pushing hard at its back, it's no surprise that Reddit is such a hot item for investors now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此巨大的逆风推动下，Reddit 现在成为投资者如此热门的对象也就不足为奇了。</p>
</div><p>Yet becoming the next Apple -- the dream of many a tech entrepreneur -- is like scaling the world's largest mountain. That $3.5 trillion price tag comes from decades of Apple building brand recognition, to the point where almost everyone on our globe has not only heard of the company, but is instantly familiar with its products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，成为下一个 Apple——这是许多科技企业家的梦想——就像攀登世界上最高的山峰。那 3.5 万亿美元的市值来自于 Apple 数十年来建立的品牌认知度，几乎全球每个人不仅听说过这家公司，而且对其产品也非常熟悉。</p>
</div><p>It also derives from the long-tail success of what was a revolutionary product on its debut -- the iPhone -- and the development of a lucrative ecosystem built around it. Building a business in these ways isn't cheap, easy, or quick; it takes plenty of vision and capital -- not to mention luck.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也源于其首发时一款革命性产品的长期成功——iPhone——以及围绕它建立的盈利生态系统。以这种方式建立业务并不便宜、简单或快速；这需要大量的远见和资本，更不用说运气了。</p>
</div><p>So even if we give Reddit a generous stretch of time to reach Apple's lofty perch, I don't think it'll quite scale those heights. Management has done a fine and clever job of locking into business opportunities and leveraging them, but advertisers are fickle and prone to shifting to the Next Cool Thing in order to capture potential customers. Data licensing is a high-potential business, sure, yet it remains to be seen how well Reddit will exploit the opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使我们给 Reddit 一个宽松的时间来达到 Apple 的高峰，我也认为它不会完全达到那个高度。管理层在锁定商业机会和利用它们方面做得很好且聪明，但广告商是善变的，容易转向下一个新奇事物以吸引潜在客户。数据许可是一个高潜力的业务，当然，但 Reddit 将如何利用这一机会仍有待观察。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Apple will continue to be a monster next to the modest size of Reddit in both the immediate and mid-/long-term future. That doesn't mean that Reddit is a stock to ignore, though. Quite the opposite -- it has attracted the market's notice for all the right reasons. It's a future social media giant in the making if it continues on its current path, and well worth consideration as a buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，Apple 将继续在 Reddit 的相对规模面前显得庞大，无论是在短期还是中期/长期未来。这并不意味着 Reddit 是一只可以忽视的股票，恰恰相反——它因所有正确的原因吸引了市场的注意。如果它继续沿着当前的道路发展，它将成为未来的社交媒体巨头，值得考虑作为一个买入的选择。</p>
</div>

Will Reddit Be Worth More Than Apple by 2030?

- Reddit 股价自 3 月 IPO 以来上涨超过 170%，市值超 100 亿美元。  
- 第三季度收入同比增长 68%，日活跃用户达 9700 万。  
- 数据授权业务增长 547%，未来潜力巨大。  

到 2030 年，Reddit 的市值会超过 Apple 吗？