<p>又一个季度，沃伦·巴菲特又一次出售了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.59%) 的股票。这位传奇投资者在第三季度再次出售了大量苹果股票，估计价值超过 200 亿美元，约为 1 亿股。<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> -- 巴菲特控制的公司 -- 仍然持有价值 700 亿美元的苹果股票，但现在的持仓规模比年初小得多。</p>
<p>巴菲特为什么要出售？本文稍后将深入探讨可能的原因。更重要的是，巴菲特今天在_买入_什么？不多，但伯克希尔哈撒韦在上个季度确实尝试收购了 <strong>达美乐比萨</strong>(DPZ 1.68%) 的 3.5%。以下是该公司目前可能吸引巴菲特及其投资团队的原因。</p>
<h2>为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦不断削减苹果持仓</h2>
<p>苹果投资为伯克希尔哈撒韦带来了超过 1000 亿美元的资本收益。在 2024 年，巴菲特开始实现这些收益，使伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金头寸超过 3000 亿美元。</p>
<p>他可能因为一个简单的原因而不再看好苹果在伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中的大规模持仓：估值。这与市场时机无关，也不是巴菲特在押注股市即将崩盘。股票在这些价格下看起来只是被高估了。</p>
<p>而且很难不同意这种观点。在当前价格下，苹果的市盈率 (P/E) 为 37。虽然对于高增长股票来说，这并不是一个过分的收益比率，但苹果已经不再是一个快速增长的公司。实际上，它几乎没有增长，增长速度显著低于通货膨胀。</p>
<p>在过去三年中，苹果的收入仅累计增长了 3%。巴菲特可能担心由于这种温和的增长与高收益比率的结合，股票表现不佳。并不是说苹果现在是一家糟糕的企业；只是股票的定价过于完美。拥有这样的资产很难实现资本的复合增长。</p>
<h2>达美乐比萨：下一个餐饮特许经营巨头？</h2>
<p>在另一端，伯克希尔哈撒韦在上个季度开始了对达美乐比萨的新投资，现在拥有该业务的相当一部分。这并不是像苹果那样的大规模持仓，但伯克希尔哈撒韦现在购买该股票的举动令人好奇。</p>
<p>巴菲特以喜欢轻资本的餐饮特许经营模式而闻名，并且长期以来一直是 <strong>麦当劳</strong> 商业成功（以及其食品）的忠实粉丝。达美乐比萨采用类似的特许经营模式来经营其比萨店。</p>
<p>像几年前的麦当劳一样，达美乐现在计划进行大规模的全球扩张，计划在今年开设 800 到 850 家新店。上个季度末的门店数量为 21000 家。如果每年增加约 1000 家门店，该公司将在大约 20 年内达到与今天的麦当劳相同的门店数量（超过 40000 家）。这与管理层对 2026 年至 2028 年期间 7% 的销售增长和 8% 的营业收入增长的长期指导相符。</p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦可能被达美乐的长期增长潜力所吸引。正如他所说，增长与价值是紧密相连的。如果一家公司预计在较长时间内以可持续的速度增长其收益，你可以为其当前收益支付更多的价格，仍然能够获利。这与苹果不同，苹果的市盈率高，但增长低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5071a9dd7210fc16ee3563e100e8e9f1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5071a9dd7210fc16ee3563e100e8e9f1.png"/></p>
<p>DPZ 每股股息（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>你应该购买达美乐的股票吗？</h2>
<p>即使达美乐的增长前景优于苹果 -- 或者说，优于市场上平均水平的股票 -- 达美乐的市盈率为 26，低于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) 的平均水平 30。这可能是简化了事情，但这种矛盾应该使达美乐比萨的股票在当前价格下成为一个买入的选择。</p>
<p>别忘了该公司强劲的资本回报计划。达美乐在过去 10 年中每股股息增长了 474%，同时由于持续的股票回购计划，流通股减少了 38%。没有理由认为这两种趋势在可预见的未来不会继续。</p>
<p>将这些因素考虑在内，达美乐比萨看起来像是一只值得长期持有的稳妥股票。难怪巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦正在购买。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

达美乐比萨

苹果

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>沃伦·巴菲特出售了他大量的苹果股票，因对苹果的高估值和缓慢增长表示担忧，从而减少了伯克希尔哈撒韦的持股比例。相反，巴菲特的公司收购了达美乐比萨 3.5% 的股份，因其轻资本的特许经营模式和长期增长潜力而受到吸引。达美乐计划大幅扩张，目标是在今年开设 800-850 家新店，并且与苹果相比，其市盈率更具优势，这使其成为伯克希尔哈撒韦一个有吸引力的投资</p>

<p>Another quarter, another <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.59%) sale from Warren Buffett. The legendary investor sold a massive chunk of Apple stock yet again in the third quarter, estimated to be worth more than $20 billion, or 100 million shares. <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> -- the company Buffett controls -- still owns $70 billion of Apple stock, but it is now a much smaller position than at the start of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>又一个季度，沃伦·巴菲特又一次出售了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.59%) 的股票。这位传奇投资者在第三季度再次出售了大量苹果股票，估计价值超过 200 亿美元，约为 1 亿股。<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> -- 巴菲特控制的公司 -- 仍然持有价值 700 亿美元的苹果股票，但现在的持仓规模比年初小得多。</p>
</div><p>Why is Buffett selling? This article will get into the likely culprit a little later. More importantly, what is Buffett <em>buying</em> today? Not much, but Berkshire Hathaway did take a stab and acquired 3.5% of <strong>Domino's Pizza</strong>(DPZ 1.68%) last quarter. Here's why the company may look attractive to Buffett and his investment team at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特为什么要出售？本文稍后将深入探讨可能的原因。更重要的是，巴菲特今天在_买入_什么？不多，但伯克希尔哈撒韦在上个季度确实尝试收购了 <strong>达美乐比萨</strong>(DPZ 1.68%) 的 3.5%。以下是该公司目前可能吸引巴菲特及其投资团队的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Why Berkshire Hathaway keeps trimming Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦不断削减苹果持仓</h2>
</div><p>The Apple investment has generated over $100 billion in capital gains for Berkshire Hathaway. Throughout 2024, Buffett has begun to realize a lot of these gains, raising Berkshire Hathaway's cash position to more than $300 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果投资为伯克希尔哈撒韦带来了超过 1000 亿美元的资本收益。在 2024 年，巴菲特开始实现这些收益，使伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金头寸超过 3000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>He is likely shying away from Apple as such a large position in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio for a simple reason: valuation. It has nothing to do with market timing, or Buffett making a bet that the stock market is going to crash anytime soon. The stock just looks overvalued at these prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他可能因为一个简单的原因而不再看好苹果在伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中的大规模持仓：估值。这与市场时机无关，也不是巴菲特在押注股市即将崩盘。股票在这些价格下看起来只是被高估了。</p>
</div><p>And it is hard to disagree with this sentiment. At current prices, Apple is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 37. While not an egregious earnings ratio for a high-growth stock, Apple isn't a fast grower anymore. In fact, it is barely growing at all, and at a significantly slower pace than inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且很难不同意这种观点。在当前价格下，苹果的市盈率 (P/E) 为 37。虽然对于高增长股票来说，这并不是一个过分的收益比率，但苹果已经不再是一个快速增长的公司。实际上，它几乎没有增长，增长速度显著低于通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>In the last three years, Apple's revenue is only up 3% on a <em>cumulative</em> basis. Buffett is likely concerned about the stock underperforming due to this tepid growth combined with a high earnings ratio. It is not like Apple is now a bad business; just one where the stock is priced to perfection. It is hard to compound your capital owning something like this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，苹果的收入仅累计增长了 3%。巴菲特可能担心由于这种温和的增长与高收益比率的结合，股票表现不佳。并不是说苹果现在是一家糟糕的企业；只是股票的定价过于完美。拥有这样的资产很难实现资本的复合增长。</p>
</div><h2>Domino's Pizza: The next restaurant franchising giant?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>达美乐比萨：下一个餐饮特许经营巨头？</h2>
</div><p>On the other side of the spectrum, Berkshire Hathaway initiated a new position in Domino's Pizza last quarter, now owning a sizable chunk of the business. This is not nearly as large of a position as Apple, but it is curious that Berkshire Hathaway is buying the stock now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在另一端，伯克希尔哈撒韦在上个季度开始了对达美乐比萨的新投资，现在拥有该业务的相当一部分。这并不是像苹果那样的大规模持仓，但伯克希尔哈撒韦现在购买该股票的举动令人好奇。</p>
</div><p>Buffett famously likes the capital-light franchising model for restaurants, and has been an ardent fan of <strong>McDonald's</strong> business success (along with its food) for a long time. Domino's Pizza runs a similar franchising model for its pizza shops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特以喜欢轻资本的餐饮特许经营模式而闻名，并且长期以来一直是 <strong>麦当劳</strong> 商业成功（以及其食品）的忠实粉丝。达美乐比萨采用类似的特许经营模式来经营其比萨店。</p>
</div><p>Like McDonald's a few decades ago, Domino's is now planning a major global expansion for its franchise. It is planning to open 800 to 850 new stores this year. Store count at the end of last quarter was 21,000. If it adds around 1,000 stores a year, the company will reach the same store level count as McDonald's today (over 40,000) in around 20 years. This lines up with management's long-term guidance of 7% sales growth and 8% operating income growth from 2026 to 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像几年前的麦当劳一样，达美乐现在计划进行大规模的全球扩张，计划在今年开设 800 到 850 家新店。上个季度末的门店数量为 21000 家。如果每年增加约 1000 家门店，该公司将在大约 20 年内达到与今天的麦当劳相同的门店数量（超过 40000 家）。这与管理层对 2026 年至 2028 年期间 7% 的销售增长和 8% 的营业收入增长的长期指导相符。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway is likely attracted to Domino's because of this long-term growth potential. As he likes to say, growth and value are tied at the hip. If a company is set to grow its earnings at a durable rate for a long while, you can pay more for its current earnings and still make money. This is unlike Apple, which trades at a high P/E, but with low growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦可能被达美乐的长期增长潜力所吸引。正如他所说，增长与价值是紧密相连的。如果一家公司预计在较长时间内以可持续的速度增长其收益，你可以为其当前收益支付更多的价格，仍然能够获利。这与苹果不同，苹果的市盈率高，但增长低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5071a9dd7210fc16ee3563e100e8e9f1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5071a9dd7210fc16ee3563e100e8e9f1.png"/></p>
<p>DPZ Dividend Per Share (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DPZ 每股股息（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Domino's stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该购买达美乐的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Even with a better growth profile than Apple -- or really, the average stock in the market -- Domino's trades at a P/E ratio of 26, which is <em>below</em> the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) average of 30. It may be simplifying things, but this contradiction should make Domino's Pizza stock a buy at current prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使达美乐的增长前景优于苹果 -- 或者说，优于市场上平均水平的股票 -- 达美乐的市盈率为 26，低于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) 的平均水平 30。这可能是简化了事情，但这种矛盾应该使达美乐比萨的股票在当前价格下成为一个买入的选择。</p>
</div><p>Don't forget that the company's robust capital returns program too. Domino's has grown its dividend per share by 474% in the last 10 years, while bringing its shares outstanding down by 38% due to a consistent share repurchase program. There's no reason to think both trends won't continue for the foreseeable future, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>别忘了该公司强劲的资本回报计划。达美乐在过去 10 年中每股股息增长了 474%，同时由于持续的股票回购计划，流通股减少了 38%。没有理由认为这两种趋势在可预见的未来不会继续。</p>
</div><p>Add these into the mix, and Domino's Pizza looks like a foolproof stock to buy and hold for the long term. No wonder Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将这些因素考虑在内，达美乐比萨看起来像是一只值得长期持有的稳妥股票。难怪巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦正在购买。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Keeps Dumping Apple Shares: Here's the Stock He Is Buying Instead

- 巴菲特在第三季度再次出售了大量苹果股票，估计价值超过 100 亿美元。  
- 伯克希尔哈撒韦仍持有苹果股票，但其持仓已大幅减少。  
- 巴菲特新购入 3.5% 的达美乐披萨，因其长期增长潜力吸引投资。

沃伦·巴菲特继续抛售苹果股票：这是他正在买入的股票