<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2023/12/trading-exchnage-setup-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2023/12/trading-exchnage-setup-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>摩根大通分析师重新覆盖了 Berry Global Group（纽约证券交易所代码：BERY），给予其 “增持” 评级，并设定了 76 美元的目标价，强调了与 Amcor PLC（纽约证券交易所代码：AMCR）宣布的合并所带来的吸引力价值。</p>
<p>分析师杰弗里·泽考斯卡斯指出，Berry 目前接近 72 美元的价格意味着大约 5.5% 的上涨潜力。</p>
<p>Berry 目前的交易价格达到了历史最高点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/11/BERY_2024-11-25_23-26-01-1024x575.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/11/BERY_2024-11-25_23-26-01-1024x575.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>考虑到预计在 2025 年中期交易完成前的每股 0.93 美元的股息支付，投资者可以实现 8.5% 的总回报，年化约为 15%。</p>
<p>泽考斯卡斯强调了合并所预期的协同效应，并对 Berry 的股东保持乐观的展望。</p>
<p>其他分析师对该交易持有不同看法。巴克莱的迈克尔·莱特海德表示，尽管 10% 的溢价看起来适中，但战略协同效应使得该交易具有吸引力。</p>
<p>由于没有竞争性报价，且独立增长的道路充满挑战，预计 Berry 的股东将批准该交易。</p>
<p>与此同时，杰富瑞分析师对交易中缺乏现金成分表示担忧，并指出由于包装业务的重叠，监管批准可能会出现延迟。</p>
<h2>Amcor-Berry 合并的关键条款</h2>
<p>该交易于 11 月 19 日宣布，价值 84 亿美元的全股票合并将使 Berry 股东每持有一股获得 7.25 股 Amcor 股票，从而在合并公司中获得 37% 的股权。</p>
<p>该交易是在 Berry 剥离其健康、卫生和特种全球无纺布及薄膜业务（HHNF）并与 Glatfelter Corporation 合并后不久达成的。</p>
<p>合并后的实体预计在协同效应实现后将达到 43 亿美元的 EBITDA，全球运营 400 个设施，服务于 140 个国家的客户。</p>
<p>管理层预计每年将实现 6.5 亿美元的协同效应，其中 40% 将在第一年内实现，主要通过采购和运营效率。</p>
<p>尽管这些预测看起来乐观，分析师警告实际的协同效应可能需要更长时间才能实现。</p>
<h2>Berry 强劲的第四季度表现及展望</h2>
<p>Berry Global 的 2024 财年第四季度收益超出预期，<strong>非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.27 美元</strong>，比预期高出 0.02 美元，<strong>收入为 31.7 亿美元</strong>，同比增长 2.6%。</p>
<p>由于价格改善推动的 2% 的有机销量增长，抵消了销量下降的影响。</p>
<p>在 2024 财年，Berry 报告 <strong>调整后每股收益为 7.62 美元</strong>，自由现金流为 6 亿至 7 亿美元，符合其指导。</p>
<p>展望未来，Berry 预计 2025 财年调整后每股收益为 6.10 至 6.60 美元，经营现金流为 11.25 亿至 12.25 亿美元，并保持低个位数的销量增长。</p>
<p>首席执行官凯文·克维林斯基强调了公司的精益转型举措，专注于提高利润率、减少债务和向股东返还资本。</p>
<h2>Berry Global 的基本面和估值分析</h2>
<p>Berry 的基本面依然强劲，得益于其在可持续包装解决方案中的领导地位。</p>
<p>该公司已实现连续 12 年的调整后每股收益增长，并继续优先考虑减少债务，已达到 3.5 倍的杠杆目标——这是其历史最低水平。</p>
<p>然而，Berry 的估值为 9 倍 EV/EBITDA，虽然具有竞争力，但低于 Amcor，突显出在成功整合后进一步上涨的潜力。</p>
<p>预计该合并将创造一个在包装行业中占主导地位的全球参与者，其一半收入来自北美，并在西欧和新兴地区具有显著的增长市场曝光。</p>
<p>尽管分析师认可 Berry 的吸引人估值和协同效应，但由于 Berry 的独立指标更强，关于 Amcor 和 Berry 股东之间利益公平分配的担忧依然存在。</p>
<h2>交易的战略意义</h2>
<p>该交易与 Amcor 扩大市场主导地位和运营效率的战略相一致。</p>
<p>然而，固定的交换比例和估值差异使得 Amcor 受益，Berry 的股东相对于其对合并实体 EBITDA 和现金流的贡献获得的股份较低。</p>
<p>尽管这些担忧值得关注，但合并释放协同效应和实现增值增长的潜力可能在长期内抵消这些不平衡。</p>
<p>Amcor 收购 Berry Global：从 5.5% 的低风险交易中获利的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

AMCR

BERY

<p>Amcor 宣布以 43 亿美元的全股票合并收购 Berry Global，Berry 的股东每持有一股将获得 7.25 股 Amcor 股票。摩根大通的分析师重新覆盖了 Berry，并给予 “增持” 评级，预计有 5.5% 的上涨潜力。此次合并预计将产生显著的协同效应，预计每年节省 2 亿美元。尽管分析师的意见不一，但该交易被视为对 Amcor 具有战略性好处，增强了其在包装行业的市场地位。Berry 在第四季度的强劲表现和对减债的关注进一步支持了合并的前景</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2023/12/trading-exchnage-setup-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2023/12/trading-exchnage-setup-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>J.P. Morgan analysts reinstated coverage of Berry Global Group (NYSE: BERY) with an Overweight rating and set a price target of $76 on it today, emphasizing the compelling value of the announced merger with Amcor PLC (NYSE: AMCR).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通分析师重新覆盖了 Berry Global Group（纽约证券交易所代码：BERY），给予其 “增持” 评级，并设定了 76 美元的目标价，强调了与 Amcor PLC（纽约证券交易所代码：AMCR）宣布的合并所带来的吸引力价值。</p>
</div><p>Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas noted that Berry’s current price of nearly $72 implies an upside potential of approximately 5.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师杰弗里·泽考斯卡斯指出，Berry 目前接近 72 美元的价格意味着大约 5.5% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div><p>Berry is currently trading at its all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Berry 目前的交易价格达到了历史最高点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/11/BERY_2024-11-25_23-26-01-1024x575.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/11/BERY_2024-11-25_23-26-01-1024x575.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Factoring in anticipated dividend payouts of $0.93 before the deal’s expected closure by mid-2025, investors could achieve a total return of 8.5%, or about 15% annualized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到预计在 2025 年中期交易完成前的每股 0.93 美元的股息支付，投资者可以实现 8.5% 的总回报，年化约为 15%。</p>
</div><p>Zekauskas highlighted the synergies expected from the merger and maintained a favorable outlook for Berry’s shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泽考斯卡斯强调了合并所预期的协同效应，并对 Berry 的股东保持乐观的展望。</p>
</div><p>Other analysts shared mixed views on the deal. Barclays’ Michael Leithead suggested that although the 10% premium may appear modest, the strategic synergies make the deal attractive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他分析师对该交易持有不同看法。巴克莱的迈克尔·莱特海德表示，尽管 10% 的溢价看起来适中，但战略协同效应使得该交易具有吸引力。</p>
</div><p>With no competing offers likely and a challenging path to standalone growth, Berry shareholders are expected to approve the transaction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于没有竞争性报价，且独立增长的道路充满挑战，预计 Berry 的股东将批准该交易。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Jefferies analysts voiced concerns about the absence of a cash component in the deal and noted potential delays in regulatory approvals due to overlaps in packaging operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，杰富瑞分析师对交易中缺乏现金成分表示担忧，并指出由于包装业务的重叠，监管批准可能会出现延迟。</p>
</div><h2>Key terms of the Amcor-Berry merger</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Amcor-Berry 合并的关键条款</h2>
</div><p>Announced on November 19, the $8.4 billion all-stock merger will result in Berry shareholders receiving 7.25 Amcor shares for each share they hold, granting them a 37% equity stake in the combined company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该交易于 11 月 19 日宣布，价值 84 亿美元的全股票合并将使 Berry 股东每持有一股获得 7.25 股 Amcor 股票，从而在合并公司中获得 37% 的股权。</p>
</div><p>The deal comes shortly after Berry’s spin-off of its Health, Hygiene, and Specialties Global Nonwovens and Films Business (HHNF) and its merger with Glatfelter Corporation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该交易是在 Berry 剥离其健康、卫生和特种全球无纺布及薄膜业务（HHNF）并与 Glatfelter Corporation 合并后不久达成的。</p>
</div><p>The combined entity, projected to achieve $4.3 billion in EBITDA post-synergies, will operate 400 facilities globally, serving customers across 140 countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>合并后的实体预计在协同效应实现后将达到 43 亿美元的 EBITDA，全球运营 400 个设施，服务于 140 个国家的客户。</p>
</div><p>Management anticipates $650 million in annualized synergies, 40% of which will be realized within the first year, primarily through procurement and operational efficiencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层预计每年将实现 6.5 亿美元的协同效应，其中 40% 将在第一年内实现，主要通过采购和运营效率。</p>
</div><p>While these projections appear optimistic, analysts caution that actual synergies may take longer to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些预测看起来乐观，分析师警告实际的协同效应可能需要更长时间才能实现。</p>
</div><h2>Berry’s strong Q4 performance and outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Berry 强劲的第四季度表现及展望</h2>
</div><p>Berry Global’s Q4 FY2024 earnings exceeded expectations, with <strong>non-GAAP EPS of $2.27</strong>, beating estimates by $0.02, and <strong>revenue of $3.17 billion</strong>, a 2.6% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Berry Global 的 2024 财年第四季度收益超出预期，<strong>非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.27 美元</strong>，比预期高出 0.02 美元，<strong>收入为 31.7 亿美元</strong>，同比增长 2.6%。</p>
</div><p>Organic volume growth of 2%, driven by pricing improvements, offset declining volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于价格改善推动的 2% 的有机销量增长，抵消了销量下降的影响。</p>
</div><p>For FY2024, Berry reported <strong>adjusted EPS of $7.62</strong> and free cash flow of $600-$700 million, meeting its guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 财年，Berry 报告 <strong>调整后每股收益为 7.62 美元</strong>，自由现金流为 6 亿至 7 亿美元，符合其指导。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Berry forecasts FY2025 adjusted EPS of $6.10-$6.60, operating cash flow of $1.125-$1.225 billion, and sustained low-single-digit volume growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，Berry 预计 2025 财年调整后每股收益为 6.10 至 6.60 美元，经营现金流为 11.25 亿至 12.25 亿美元，并保持低个位数的销量增长。</p>
</div><p>CEO Kevin Kwilinski emphasized the company’s lean transformation initiatives and focus on enhancing margins, reducing debt, and returning capital to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官凯文·克维林斯基强调了公司的精益转型举措，专注于提高利润率、减少债务和向股东返还资本。</p>
</div><h2>Fundamental and valuation analysis of Berry Global</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Berry Global 的基本面和估值分析</h2>
</div><p>Berry’s fundamentals remain robust, bolstered by its leadership position in sustainable packaging solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Berry 的基本面依然强劲，得益于其在可持续包装解决方案中的领导地位。</p>
</div><p>The company has achieved 12 consecutive years of adjusted EPS growth and continues to prioritize debt reduction, having reached a leverage target of 3.5x—its lowest in history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司已实现连续 12 年的调整后每股收益增长，并继续优先考虑减少债务，已达到 3.5 倍的杠杆目标——这是其历史最低水平。</p>
</div><p>However, Berry’s valuation at 9x EV/EBITDA remains competitive yet lower than Amcor’s, highlighting the potential for further upside upon successful integration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Berry 的估值为 9 倍 EV/EBITDA，虽然具有竞争力，但低于 Amcor，突显出在成功整合后进一步上涨的潜力。</p>
</div><p>The merger is expected to create a dominant global player in the packaging industry, with half of its revenue derived from North America and significant exposure to growth markets in Western Europe and emerging regions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计该合并将创造一个在包装行业中占主导地位的全球参与者，其一半收入来自北美，并在西欧和新兴地区具有显著的增长市场曝光。</p>
</div><p>While analysts recognize Berry’s attractive valuation and synergies, concerns about the fair distribution of benefits between Amcor and Berry shareholders persist, given Berry’s stronger standalone metrics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管分析师认可 Berry 的吸引人估值和协同效应，但由于 Berry 的独立指标更强，关于 Amcor 和 Berry 股东之间利益公平分配的担忧依然存在。</p>
</div><h2>Strategic Implications of the deal</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交易的战略意义</h2>
</div><p>The deal aligns with Amcor’s strategy to expand its market dominance and operational efficiencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该交易与 Amcor 扩大市场主导地位和运营效率的战略相一致。</p>
</div><p>However, the fixed exchange ratio and valuation disparities favor Amcor, with Berry’s shareholders receiving a lower stake relative to their contribution to the combined entity’s EBITDA and cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，固定的交换比例和估值差异使得 Amcor 受益，Berry 的股东相对于其对合并实体 EBITDA 和现金流的贡献获得的股份较低。</p>
</div><p>While these concerns merit attention, the merger’s potential to unlock synergies and deliver accretive growth could offset these imbalances in the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些担忧值得关注，但合并释放协同效应和实现增值增长的潜力可能在长期内抵消这些不平衡。</p>
</div><p>The post Amcor acquires Berry Global: profiting from a 5.5% low-risk trade appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amcor 收购 Berry Global：从 5.5% 的低风险交易中获利的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>