<p>2022 年 8 月 16 日，乔·拜登总统签署了《通货膨胀削减法案》（IRA）。虽然 IRA 包含许多内容，但该法案中一个较为突出的方面是针对电动汽车（EV）的税收抵免。</p>
<p>简单来说，购买新电动汽车的消费者有资格获得最高达 7500 美元的税收抵免，而购买二手电动汽车则可获得最高 4000 美元的抵免。这些激励措施的主要驱动力之一是帮助降低电动汽车的价格，同时创造一个更环保、可持续的环境。</p>
<p>然而，在他的竞选过程中，特朗普当选总统暗示他可能会尝试取消这些电动汽车激励措施。从表面上看，这样的举动似乎对像 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -3.96%）这样的公司不利——特斯拉是美国电动汽车制造的事实代表。</p>
<p>虽然我理解这种逻辑背后的原因，但我的逆向预测是，如果特朗普当选总统真的成功追求这一目标，特斯拉实际上会从取消电动汽车税收抵免中受益。</p>
<p>接下来，我将深入探讨取消补贴可能对电动汽车市场的影响，并解释为什么我认为特斯拉在长期内会很好。</p>
<h2>短期内，特朗普的举动可能会伤害电动汽车市场</h2>
<p>一般来说，电动汽车的普及仍处于早期阶段。专注于制造电动汽车的公司数量有限，例如特斯拉和 <strong>Rivian</strong>。与此同时，像 <strong>福特</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 这样的传统汽车制造商仍然与传统内燃机汽车紧密相关，尽管它们各自已投资数十亿美元于电动汽车的发展路线图。</p>
<p>竞争环境小，加上这些汽车制造商都未能实现大规模生产——比如每年数千万辆——导致电动汽车市场价格居高不下。因此，电动汽车对大多数消费者来说实在是遥不可及——因此，拜登 - 哈里斯政府采取了税收抵免的措施来帮助抵消这些高昂的成本。</p>
<p>取消电动汽车的补贴将使这些购买变得更加昂贵。反过来，电动汽车市场可能会看到消费者需求的急剧下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg2MzIvZ2V0dHktdGF4LWNyZWRpdC1pcnMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg2MzIvZ2V0dHktdGF4LWNyZWRpdC1pcnMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>但特斯拉可能并不像你想的那样脆弱</h2>
<p>虽然需求下降可能会影响整个电动汽车市场，但我认为特斯拉的脆弱性远低于其竞争对手。请记住，特斯拉已经被视为一种高端产品。换句话说，拥有一辆特斯拉仍然是一种奢侈，并不是普通消费者能够负担得起的购买。因此，我认为更广泛的电动汽车需求下降不会对特斯拉的增长造成太大影响。</p>
<p>相比之下，取消电动汽车税收抵免几乎肯定会对像福特和通用汽车这样的较小参与者或传统企业造成重大打击，因为它们可能更依赖补贴来吸引消费者尝试其替代特斯拉的车辆。换句话说，特斯拉的竞争对手主要在价格上与公司竞争，而不是产品质量。如果电动汽车税收补贴消失，竞争对手将失去部分价值主张。</p>
<p>进一步说，取消税收抵免可能成为阻止新竞争者进入电动汽车市场的主要障碍。正如我上面提到的，制造电动汽车和电池技术仍然非常昂贵——即使对于像特斯拉这样的主要企业也是如此。较小的竞争者根本没有财务灵活性来吸收这些成本。</p>
<p>在没有税收抵免及其对电动汽车购买需求的刺激的情况下，较小的参与者将继续处于劣势——从而使特斯拉能够进一步渗透市场并建立势头。</p>
<h2>埃隆·马斯克似乎对此并不太担心</h2>
<p>值得注意的是，我上面所写的许多内容都是基于理论。换句话说，取消税收抵免对新电动汽车制造商来说应该是一个更大的问题，而对特斯拉来说则不然。但当然，我不知道如果特朗普当选总统真的取消这些激励措施，我的预测是否会成立。</p>
<p>然而，不要仅仅听我说。请查看特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对《通货膨胀削减法案》和电动汽车税收抵免的看法，视频如下：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>埃隆·马斯克：取消所有补贴。</p>
<p>&#34;我们不需要 7500 美元的电动汽车税收抵免。老实说，我会建议取消整个基础设施法案。不要通过。这是我的建议。</p>
<p>我们需要对加油站的支持吗？我们不需要。所以，没有必要支持... pic.twitter.com/GBWjSs7SFD</p>
<p>-- ELON DOCS (@elon_docs) 2024 年 11 月 7 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>我与马斯克的观点一致，即 IRA 的补贴最终对较小的电动汽车竞争者更有用，而对特斯拉则不那么重要。归根结底，我对特斯拉的未来持乐观态度，并不担心公司成功的能力——无论电动汽车税收抵免如何。</p>

特斯拉

<p>当选总统唐纳德·特朗普可能取消电动车（EVs）税收抵免的计划，初看似乎对特斯拉有害，但一种反向观点认为这可能对公司有利。虽然取消补贴可能会减少整体电动车需求，但特斯拉的高端品牌形象可能会使其免受重大影响。依赖补贴的小型竞争对手可能会面临困难，从而使特斯拉能够巩固其市场地位。埃隆·马斯克对这种补贴的必要性表示怀疑，表明特斯拉在电动车市场上可能并不像其他公司那样脆弱</p>

<p>On Aug. 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law. Although there are many components to the IRA, one of the more prevalent aspects of this piece of legislation revolves around tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2022 年 8 月 16 日，乔·拜登总统签署了《通货膨胀削减法案》（IRA）。虽然 IRA 包含许多内容，但该法案中一个较为突出的方面是针对电动汽车（EV）的税收抵免。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, consumers who purchase a new EV are eligible for a tax credit worth up to $7,500, while used EV purchases are eligible for a credit of up to $4,000. One of the driving forces behind these incentives is to help make EVs more affordable while also creating a more green, sustainable environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，购买新电动汽车的消费者有资格获得最高达 7500 美元的税收抵免，而购买二手电动汽车则可获得最高 4000 美元的抵免。这些激励措施的主要驱动力之一是帮助降低电动汽车的价格，同时创造一个更环保、可持续的环境。</p>
</div><p>However, throughout his campaign President-elect Trump suggested that he may try to remove these EV incentives. On the surface, such a move may seem detrimental to a company such as <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -3.96%) -- the de facto poster child for EV manufacturing in America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在他的竞选过程中，特朗普当选总统暗示他可能会尝试取消这些电动汽车激励措施。从表面上看，这样的举动似乎对像 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -3.96%）这样的公司不利——特斯拉是美国电动汽车制造的事实代表。</p>
</div><p>While I understand the reasoning behind this logic, my contrarian prediction is that Tesla will actually benefit from the removal of EV tax credits -- should President-elect Trump actually pursue this ambition successfully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我理解这种逻辑背后的原因，但我的逆向预测是，如果特朗普当选总统真的成功追求这一目标，特斯拉实际上会从取消电动汽车税收抵免中受益。</p>
</div><p>Below, I'll dive into how removing subsidies could impact the EV market and explain why I think Tesla will be just fine in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，我将深入探讨取消补贴可能对电动汽车市场的影响，并解释为什么我认为特斯拉在长期内会很好。</p>
</div><h2>In the short run, Trump's move could hurt the EV market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期内，特朗普的举动可能会伤害电动汽车市场</h2>
</div><p>Generally speaking, EV adoption is still in its early days. There are only a finite number of companies that are solely focusing on building EVs, such as Tesla and <strong>Rivian</strong>. Meanwhile, legacy automakers like <strong>Ford</strong> and <strong>General Motors</strong> are still very much affiliated with traditional combustion engine cars despite each investing billions into their respective EV roadmap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一般来说，电动汽车的普及仍处于早期阶段。专注于制造电动汽车的公司数量有限，例如特斯拉和 <strong>Rivian</strong>。与此同时，像 <strong>福特</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 这样的传统汽车制造商仍然与传统内燃机汽车紧密相关，尽管它们各自已投资数十亿美元于电动汽车的发展路线图。</p>
</div><p>The small competitive landscape, coupled with the fact that none of these automakers has achieved mass production -- say tens of millions annually -- has contributed to high prices in the EV market. For these reasons, EVs are simply out of reach for most consumers -- hence, the Biden-Harris administration took action in the form of tax credits to help offset these hefty costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争环境小，加上这些汽车制造商都未能实现大规模生产——比如每年数千万辆——导致电动汽车市场价格居高不下。因此，电动汽车对大多数消费者来说实在是遥不可及——因此，拜登 - 哈里斯政府采取了税收抵免的措施来帮助抵消这些高昂的成本。</p>
</div><p>Removing subsidies from EVs would make these purchases more expensive. In turn, the EV market could very well witness a sharp decline in consumer demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>取消电动汽车的补贴将使这些购买变得更加昂贵。反过来，电动汽车市场可能会看到消费者需求的急剧下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg2MzIvZ2V0dHktdGF4LWNyZWRpdC1pcnMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F798632%2Fgetty-tax-credit-irs.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>But Tesla may not be as vulnerable as you think</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但特斯拉可能并不像你想的那样脆弱</h2>
</div><p>While a drop in demand would likely permeate throughout the entire EV landscape, I see Tesla as far less vulnerable than its peers. Remember, Tesla is already perceived as a premium product. In other words, owning a Tesla is still somewhat of luxury and not exactly a purchase the average consumer can yet afford. For this reason, I don't think a drop in broader EV demand would make too much of a dent in Tesla's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然需求下降可能会影响整个电动汽车市场，但我认为特斯拉的脆弱性远低于其竞争对手。请记住，特斯拉已经被视为一种高端产品。换句话说，拥有一辆特斯拉仍然是一种奢侈，并不是普通消费者能够负担得起的购买。因此，我认为更广泛的电动汽车需求下降不会对特斯拉的增长造成太大影响。</p>
</div><p>By contrast, removing EV tax credits would almost certainly be a big blow for smaller players or legacy incumbents such as Ford and GM, which may rely more on subsidies to entice consumers to try out their alternatives to Tesla's vehicles. In other words, Tesla's competitors primarily compete with the company on price and not the quality of the product. If EV tax subsidies go away, the competition loses part of its value proposition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，取消电动汽车税收抵免几乎肯定会对像福特和通用汽车这样的较小参与者或传统企业造成重大打击，因为它们可能更依赖补贴来吸引消费者尝试其替代特斯拉的车辆。换句话说，特斯拉的竞争对手主要在价格上与公司竞争，而不是产品质量。如果电动汽车税收补贴消失，竞争对手将失去部分价值主张。</p>
</div><p>Taking this a step further, getting rid of tax credits could be a major barrier preventing new competitors from entering the EV space at all. As I alluded to above, manufacturing EVs and battery technology is still incredibly expensive -- even for major forces such as Tesla. Smaller competitors simply do not have the financial flexibility to absorb these costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步说，取消税收抵免可能成为阻止新竞争者进入电动汽车市场的主要障碍。正如我上面提到的，制造电动汽车和电池技术仍然非常昂贵——即使对于像特斯拉这样的主要企业也是如此。较小的竞争者根本没有财务灵活性来吸收这些成本。</p>
</div><p>Without the help of tax credits and the demand they spur for EV purchases, smaller players will remain at a disadvantage -- thereby allowing Tesla to further penetrate the market and build momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在没有税收抵免及其对电动汽车购买需求的刺激的情况下，较小的参与者将继续处于劣势——从而使特斯拉能够进一步渗透市场并建立势头。</p>
</div><h2>Elon Musk doesn't seem too worried about it</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>埃隆·马斯克似乎对此并不太担心</h2>
</div><p>It's important to note that much of what I wrote above is rooted in theory. Said another way, removing tax credits should be more of a problem for newer EV makers and less so for Tesla. But of course, I do not know if my prediction will actually hold up if President-elect Trump indeed gets rid of these incentives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，我上面所写的许多内容都是基于理论。换句话说，取消税收抵免对新电动汽车制造商来说应该是一个更大的问题，而对特斯拉来说则不然。但当然，我不知道如果特朗普当选总统真的取消这些激励措施，我的预测是否会成立。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, don't just take my word for it. Check out Tesla CEO Elon Musk's opinion of the Inflation Reduction Act and EV tax credits in the video below:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，不要仅仅听我说。请查看特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对《通货膨胀削减法案》和电动汽车税收抵免的看法，视频如下：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Elon Musk: Get rid of all subsidies.</p>
<p>&#34;We don't need the $7,500 [EV] tax credit. I would say, honestly, I would just cancel this whole [infrastructure] bill. Don't pass it. That's my recommendation.</p>
<p>Do we need support for gas stations? We don't. So, there's no need for support... pic.twitter.com/GBWjSs7SFD</p>
<p>-- ELON DOCS (@elon_docs) November 7, 2024</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>埃隆·马斯克：取消所有补贴。</p>
<p>&#34;我们不需要 7500 美元的电动汽车税收抵免。老实说，我会建议取消整个基础设施法案。不要通过。这是我的建议。</p>
<p>我们需要对加油站的支持吗？我们不需要。所以，没有必要支持... pic.twitter.com/GBWjSs7SFD</p>
<p>-- ELON DOCS (@elon_docs) 2024 年 11 月 7 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>I am aligned with Musk's outlook that the subsidies from the IRA ultimately serve as more useful for smaller EV competitors and not so much Tesla. At the end of the day, I remain optimistic on Tesla's future and am not worried about the company's ability to succeed -- regardless of the EV tax credits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我与马斯克的观点一致，即 IRA 的补贴最终对较小的电动汽车竞争者更有用，而对特斯拉则不那么重要。归根结底，我对特斯拉的未来持乐观态度，并不担心公司成功的能力——无论电动汽车税收抵免如何。</p>
</div>

Prediction: President-elect Donald Trump's Plan to Cancel Tax Credits on Electric Vehicles Will Help Tesla

- 拜登于 2022 年签署的通货膨胀削减法案提供电动车税收抵免。  
- 特斯拉可能因竞争对手依赖补贴而受益，尽管短期内市场需求可能下降。  
- 马斯克认为补贴对特斯拉帮助不大，反而更有利于小型竞争者。

预测：当选总统唐纳德·特朗普计划取消电动汽车税收抵免，这将有助于特斯拉