<p><strong>苹果</strong> 被广泛认为是沃伦·巴菲特在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的最大投资。它为股东带来了超过 1000 亿美元的收益，使其成为有史以来最成功的投资之一。</p>
<p>然而，你知道巴菲特已经大幅削减了这一头寸吗？没错——伯克希尔哈撒韦在 2024 年一直在出售苹果股票，这可能是由于股票估值的上升。显然，巴菲特对苹果股票未来回报的乐观情绪正在减弱，他正在为伯克希尔哈撒韦的资产负债表增加大量现金，目前已超过 3000 亿美元。</p>
<p>不过，自 1991 年购买以来，他从未出售过的一只股票是 <strong>美国运通</strong>（AXP -0.20%）。巴菲特拥有这家信用卡发行商和银行超过 20% 的股份，使其成为伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中的第二大头寸。根据目前的估算，该头寸的价值为 400 亿美元。</p>
<p>让我们看看巴菲特为何对美国运通股票情有独钟，为什么他从未出售过一股，以及你是否应该跟随他今天购买股票。</p>
<h2>一个持久的消费金融机构</h2>
<p>自 1963 年首次购买股票以来，巴菲特一直在关注美国运通。那时它是一家截然不同的公司，主要经营旅行支票。到 1991 年，该公司已成为美国最大的信用卡网络之一，专注于服务高端客户群。</p>
<p>美国运通的商业模式有几个持久的特点。它销售高费用的信用卡，如 1984 年推出的白金卡。人们申请这些卡是因为旅行福利和诸如机场贵宾室的优质特权。然而，这些卡还带有过去几十年积累的无形品牌价值。客户感觉自己像是在一个独特的俱乐部中，使用金属的美国运通卡购物，这为公司提供了难以复制的品牌价值。</p>
<p>在后端，美国运通的基础设施也很难复制。与 <strong>维萨</strong> 和 <strong>万事达</strong> 一样，美国运通在商户支付方式中已经扎根数十年。如果另一个信用卡网络想要竞争，它几乎必须去全国的每一个商户，试图说服他们在支付终端上添加另一张信用卡。这是一场艰巨的战斗，使美国运通免受竞争的影响。</p>
<p>巴菲特在 1991 年购买美国运通时可能看到了这些特点。从那时起，美国运通股票的累计总回报达到了 10,130%。尽管自 1991 年以来，巴菲特仅在少数几次购买了更多股票，但该股票的复合增长率如此之高，以至于现在在他的股票投资组合中占据了很大一部分。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的永不出售心态</h2>
<p>许多人，甚至大多数人，在巴菲特仍然持有股份的情况下出售了美国运通。这是对初学投资者的一个教训：你并不是通过购买股票来创造财富，而是通过长期持有它。</p>
<p>巴菲特倡导这种心态，认为这是伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中最佳企业的做法。只要他相信美国运通股票的估值没有达到不合理的水平，并且仍然有充足的增长空间，他认为最好的做法就是持有。对于你的大赢家股票，长期持有是投资者从研究巴菲特中应该吸取的教训，而美国运通就是典型的例子。</p>
<p>如果你认为这与苹果的出售相矛盾，读者应该注意到，苹果仍然是巴菲特今天最大的股票持有。他可能不想在一家缓慢增长的公司中占有过大的头寸，而该公司的市盈率（P/E）为 37。美国运通仍然有充足的增长空间，特别是由于其永久的通胀对冲。作为美国（以及越来越多的全球）支付领域的整体收入份额，美国运通的收入随着通胀而增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62f738469b2c9de3a9074d72a678f9c4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62f738469b2c9de3a9074d72a678f9c4.png"/></p>
<p>AXP 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>今天美国运通值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>截至目前，美国运通股票今年表现出色，年初至今上涨了 58%。该股票的市盈率为 22，远低于苹果，但高于其历史平均水平。</p>
<p>即便如此，我认为美国运通在长期内仍能为股东带来良好回报。管理层相信，通过获取新客户、通胀、定价能力和强大的股票回购计划，它可以将每股收益（EPS）增长约 15%。即使股票的市盈率压缩，投资者在长期持有中仍应受益——这就是巴菲特不出售一股的原因。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

美国运通

<p>沃伦·巴菲特显著减少了他在苹果公司的股份，在 2024 年期间不断出售股票，同时保持对美国运通（AXP）的长期投资，该投资始于 1991 年。美国运通目前是伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中的第二大持仓，拥有强大的品牌和持久的商业模式。自巴菲特首次投资以来，该股票的回报超过了 10,000%。尽管市盈率为 22，但预计美国运通的收益将增长 15%，使其成为长期投资者的潜在买入对象</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong> is well known as Warren Buffett's largest investment at <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>. It has netted shareholders over $100 billion in gains, making it one of the most successful investments ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong> 被广泛认为是沃伦·巴菲特在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的最大投资。它为股东带来了超过 1000 亿美元的收益，使其成为有史以来最成功的投资之一。</p>
</div><p>However, did you know that Buffett has greatly trimmed this position? That's right -- Berkshire Hathaway has been selling Apple shares throughout 2024, likely due to the stock's rising valuation. Clearly losing his optimism about the future returns of Apple stock, Buffett is adding a ton of cash to Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet, which now numbers over $300 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，你知道巴菲特已经大幅削减了这一头寸吗？没错——伯克希尔哈撒韦在 2024 年一直在出售苹果股票，这可能是由于股票估值的上升。显然，巴菲特对苹果股票未来回报的乐观情绪正在减弱，他正在为伯克希尔哈撒韦的资产负债表增加大量现金，目前已超过 3000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>There is one stock he has never sold since buying in 1991, though: <strong>American Express</strong>(AXP -0.20%). Buffett owns over 20% of the credit card issuer and bank, making it the second-largest position in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. The position trades at a value of $40 billion as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，自 1991 年购买以来，他从未出售过的一只股票是 <strong>美国运通</strong>（AXP -0.20%）。巴菲特拥有这家信用卡发行商和银行超过 20% 的股份，使其成为伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中的第二大头寸。根据目前的估算，该头寸的价值为 400 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Let's see why Buffett is attracted to American Express stock, why he has never sold a share, and whether you should join him and buy shares today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们看看巴菲特为何对美国运通股票情有独钟，为什么他从未出售过一股，以及你是否应该跟随他今天购买股票。</p>
</div><h2>A durable consumer financing institution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一个持久的消费金融机构</h2>
</div><p>Buffett has been following American Express ever since he first bought shares in 1963. Back then it was a radically different company, dealing in traveler's checks. By 1991, the company had become one of the largest credit card networks in the United States, focusing on serving a premium customer base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1963 年首次购买股票以来，巴菲特一直在关注美国运通。那时它是一家截然不同的公司，主要经营旅行支票。到 1991 年，该公司已成为美国最大的信用卡网络之一，专注于服务高端客户群。</p>
</div><p>There are a few durable qualities to American Express' business model. It sells high-fee credit cards such as the Platinum card, which debuted in 1984. People sign up for these cards because of the travel benefits and premium perks such as access to airport lounges. However, they also come with an intangible brand benefit built up over the last few decades. Customers feel like they are in an exclusive club shopping with the metallic American Express cards, which gives the company a brand value that is tough to replicate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国运通的商业模式有几个持久的特点。它销售高费用的信用卡，如 1984 年推出的白金卡。人们申请这些卡是因为旅行福利和诸如机场贵宾室的优质特权。然而，这些卡还带有过去几十年积累的无形品牌价值。客户感觉自己像是在一个独特的俱乐部中，使用金属的美国运通卡购物，这为公司提供了难以复制的品牌价值。</p>
</div><p>On the back end, the American Express infrastructure is hard to replicate. Like <strong>Visa</strong> and <strong>Mastercard</strong>, American Express has been entrenched as a payment method for merchants for decades. If another credit card network were to try to compete, it would have to go to virtually every merchant across the country to try to convince them to add another credit card to its payment terminal. This is an uphill battle that insulates American Express from the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在后端，美国运通的基础设施也很难复制。与 <strong>维萨</strong> 和 <strong>万事达</strong> 一样，美国运通在商户支付方式中已经扎根数十年。如果另一个信用卡网络想要竞争，它几乎必须去全国的每一个商户，试图说服他们在支付终端上添加另一张信用卡。这是一场艰巨的战斗，使美国运通免受竞争的影响。</p>
</div><p>Buffett likely saw these qualities in 1991 when he bought American Express for Berkshire Hathaway. Since then, American Express stock has posted a cumulative total return of 10,130%. Even though Buffett has only purchased more shares a few other times since 1991, the stock has compounded at such a high rate that it now makes up a large portion of his equity portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在 1991 年购买美国运通时可能看到了这些特点。从那时起，美国运通股票的累计总回报达到了 10,130%。尽管自 1991 年以来，巴菲特仅在少数几次购买了更多股票，但该股票的复合增长率如此之高，以至于现在在他的股票投资组合中占据了很大一部分。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's never-sell mentality</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的永不出售心态</h2>
</div><p>Many, perhaps most, people have sold American Express while Buffett remains a shareholder. This is a lesson for beginning investors: You don't generate wealth by buying a stock, but by holding it for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人，甚至大多数人，在巴菲特仍然持有股份的情况下出售了美国运通。这是对初学投资者的一个教训：你并不是通过购买股票来创造财富，而是通过长期持有它。</p>
</div><p>Buffett espouses this mentality for what he deems the best businesses in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. As long as he believes American Express stock isn't getting to an unreasonable valuation and still has plenty of runway left to grow, he believes the best course of action is to just hold. Long holding periods for your big stock winners is a lesson investors should take away from studying Buffett, with American Express being the quintessential example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特倡导这种心态，认为这是伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中最佳企业的做法。只要他相信美国运通股票的估值没有达到不合理的水平，并且仍然有充足的增长空间，他认为最好的做法就是持有。对于你的大赢家股票，长期持有是投资者从研究巴菲特中应该吸取的教训，而美国运通就是典型的例子。</p>
</div><p>If you think this contradicts the Apple sales, readers should note that Apple is still Buffett's largest stock holding today. He likely didn't want too large of a position in a slow-growth company trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 37. American Express still has plenty of runway left to grow, especially with its permanent inflation hedge. As a take-rate of the entire payments space in the United States (and increasingly around the world), American Express' revenue grows along with inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你认为这与苹果的出售相矛盾，读者应该注意到，苹果仍然是巴菲特今天最大的股票持有。他可能不想在一家缓慢增长的公司中占有过大的头寸，而该公司的市盈率（P/E）为 37。美国运通仍然有充足的增长空间，特别是由于其永久的通胀对冲。作为美国（以及越来越多的全球）支付领域的整体收入份额，美国运通的收入随着通胀而增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62f738469b2c9de3a9074d72a678f9c4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62f738469b2c9de3a9074d72a678f9c4.png"/></p>
<p>AXP PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AXP 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Is American Express a buy today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今天美国运通值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>American Express stock is having a phenomenal year, up 58% year to date (YTD) as of this writing. The stock has a P/E of 22, which is much lower than Apple but higher than its historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，美国运通股票今年表现出色，年初至今上涨了 58%。该股票的市盈率为 22，远低于苹果，但高于其历史平均水平。</p>
</div><p>Even so, I think American Express can do well by shareholders over the long term. Management believes it can grow earnings per share (EPS) at around 15% through acquiring new customers, inflation, pricing power, and its robust share repurchase program. Even if the stock's P/E compresses, investors should benefit by holding it over the long term -- which is why Buffett isn't selling a single share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，我认为美国运通在长期内仍能为股东带来良好回报。管理层相信，通过获取新客户、通胀、定价能力和强大的股票回购计划，它可以将每股收益（EPS）增长约 15%。即使股票的市盈率压缩，投资者在长期持有中仍应受益——这就是巴菲特不出售一股的原因。</p>
</div>

Is This Warren Buffett's Favorite Stock? (Hint: It's Not Apple)

- 巴菲特在 2024 年大幅减持苹果股票，可能因其估值上升。  
- 他始终持有美国运通股票，自 1991 年以来未曾出售，持股超过 20%。  
- 美国运通的商业模式稳健，预计未来仍有增长空间。

这是沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股票吗？（提示：不是 Apple）