<p>利率对房地产行业的影响非常显著。公司和个人通常借款来资助任何房地产投资的很大一部分。随着利率上升，借款资金以资助新交易的成本变得更高，而较高的利率通常会对房地产价值产生压力。</p>
<p>然而，在近年来为了应对通货膨胀而保持高利率后，联邦储备委员会已经开始降低联邦基金利率。它目前预计将在未来几个月继续降低利率。虽然这应该对整个房地产行业产生积极影响，但一些股票可能会从下降的利率中获得更大的好处。其中之一是 <strong>EPR 房地产</strong>(EPR -0.83%)。以下是如果美联储继续降息，这家房地产投资信托基金（REIT）可能会成为赢家的原因。</p>
<h2>近年来面临的逆风</h2>
<p>EPR 房地产是一家专注于拥有体验式房地产的专业 REIT，例如电影院、餐饮娱乐场所和其他景点。这一策略多年来带来了丰厚的回报。自 1997 年上市以来，该 REIT 已为其股东提供了超过 1600% 的终身总回报，通过扩大其投资组合、现金流和分红支付。</p>
<p>然而，该公司在近年来面临了一些逆风，影响了其增长股东价值的能力。首先，疫情对其租户产生了重大影响，其中大多数不得不暂时关闭运营。这影响了他们支付租金的能力。因此，该 REIT 不得不暂停分红一段时间，然后以较低的水平恢复分红。</p>
<p>疫情对其影院租户产生了持续影响。其最大租户之一的母公司在 2022 年申请破产。该 REIT 能够重新谈判其租约，覆盖其租给该租户的 57 个影院物业中的 41 个，这应该能在今年恢复约 96% 的破产前租金。</p>
<p>除此之外，较高的利率增加了公司的资本成本。其股价目前比疫情前的高峰低超过 35%，这也是其提供 7.5% 高分红收益率的原因，尽管其分红远低于疫情前的水平。考虑到如此高的收益率和更高的借款成本，该 REIT 很难通过发行额外股本进行增值收购。</p>
<h2>从逆风转为顺风</h2>
<p>EPR 房地产的高资本成本限制了其近年来的增长能力，无法达到其可以通过支付分红、资本回收收益和信用额度借款所产生的内部自由现金流来资助的水平。例如，EPR 房地产去年资助了 2.694 亿美元的新投资，并计划在今年投资 2.25 亿到 2.75 亿美元。这一投资率足以实现其每股运营资金（FFO）3% 到 4% 的年增长。这一速度也支持类似范围的分红增长。</p>
<p>鉴于其资本成本的限制，该 REIT 计划在短期内继续限制其增长，仅投资于可以通过内部产生的现金和信用额度借款来资助的项目，目前在 10 亿美元的信用额度中仅有 1.69 亿美元未偿还。它现在非常谨慎，主要专注于高回报的开发和再开发项目。</p>
<p>然而，利率下降应该有助于降低其资本成本。较低的利率将减少其借款成本，并应该提升其股价。这将使公司更容易在未来资助额外的增值交易。例如，在 2019 年，该 REIT 投资了 7.947 亿美元用于新的物业投资。同时，它最初预计在 2020 年将在新投资上花费 16 亿到 18 亿美元，包括一项预计为 10 亿美元的游戏场所收购，该收购部分由 2019 年出售的 882 百万美元的非核心资产（主要是教育物业）资助。这些交易将使该 REIT 能够继续增长其分红，而其分红在疫情后的重置后远低于之前的水平。</p>
<h2>强劲的总回报潜力</h2>
<p>尽管面临资本成本的逆风，EPR 房地产目前仍提供了吸引人的总回报潜力。其分红收益率超过 7.5%，现金流和支付每年增长 3% 到 4%，该 REIT 应该能够从这里产生双位数的总回报。这假设其股价仅与其盈利增长率保持一致。</p>
<p>然而，如果进一步降息，它可能会成为更大的赢家。这将通过降低借款成本来帮助降低其资本成本。随着房地产价值的增加，其股价也应该上涨。这一催化剂还将使该 REIT 能够增加投资量，并在未来更快地增长其 FFO 和分红，进一步增强其总回报潜力。</p>

EPR房地产

<p>EPR 房地产是一家专注于体验型房地产的特殊房地产投资信托（REIT），可能会从潜在的联邦储备利率下调中显著受益。由于疫情和利率上升，该公司面临挑战，影响了其增长和分红支付。然而，EPR 目前的股息收益率为 7.5%，并且采取了严格的投资策略，使其具备了增长的基础。利率下调带来的借贷成本降低，可能增强其资金用于新收购的能力，并改善其股价，从而可能为投资者带来两位数的总回报</p>

<p>Interest rates have an outsize impact on the real estate sector. Companies and individuals typically borrow money to fund a significant portion of any real estate investment. As rates rise, they make borrowing money to fund new deals more expensive, and higher rates typically weigh on real estate values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率对房地产行业的影响非常显著。公司和个人通常借款来资助任何房地产投资的很大一部分。随着利率上升，借款资金以资助新交易的成本变得更高，而较高的利率通常会对房地产价值产生压力。</p>
</div><p>However, after keeping rates high in recent years to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve has started cutting the Federal Funds Rate. It currently expects to continue reducing rates in the coming months. While that should positively impact the entire real estate sector, some stocks could see an even bigger benefit from falling rates. One of them is <strong>EPR Properties</strong>(EPR -0.83%). Here's why the real estate investment trust (REIT) could be a winner if the Fed keeps cutting rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在近年来为了应对通货膨胀而保持高利率后，联邦储备委员会已经开始降低联邦基金利率。它目前预计将在未来几个月继续降低利率。虽然这应该对整个房地产行业产生积极影响，但一些股票可能会从下降的利率中获得更大的好处。其中之一是 <strong>EPR 房地产</strong>(EPR -0.83%)。以下是如果美联储继续降息，这家房地产投资信托基金（REIT）可能会成为赢家的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Battling headwinds in recent years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>近年来面临的逆风</h2>
</div><p>EPR Properties is a specialty REIT focused on owning experiential real estate, such as movie theaters, eat-and-play venues, and other attractions. That strategy had paid big dividends over the years. The REIT has delivered a more than 1,600% lifetime total return to its shareholders since it came public in 1997 by growing its portfolio, cash flow, and dividend payment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EPR 房地产是一家专注于拥有体验式房地产的专业 REIT，例如电影院、餐饮娱乐场所和其他景点。这一策略多年来带来了丰厚的回报。自 1997 年上市以来，该 REIT 已为其股东提供了超过 1600% 的终身总回报，通过扩大其投资组合、现金流和分红支付。</p>
</div><p>However, the company has faced some headwinds in recent years that have impacted its ability to grow shareholder value. First, the pandemic had a meaningful impact on its tenants, most of which had to shut down their operations temporarily. That affected their ability to pay rent. As a result, the REIT had to suspend its dividend for a period before bringing it back at a lower level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该公司在近年来面临了一些逆风，影响了其增长股东价值的能力。首先，疫情对其租户产生了重大影响，其中大多数不得不暂时关闭运营。这影响了他们支付租金的能力。因此，该 REIT 不得不暂停分红一段时间，然后以较低的水平恢复分红。</p>
</div><p>The pandemic had a lingering impact on its theater tenants. The parent company of one of its largest tenants filed for bankruptcy in 2022. The REIT was able to renegotiate its lease to cover 41 of the 57 theater properties it had leased to this tenant, which should recover about 96% of the pre-bankruptcy rent this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疫情对其影院租户产生了持续影响。其最大租户之一的母公司在 2022 年申请破产。该 REIT 能够重新谈判其租约，覆盖其租给该租户的 57 个影院物业中的 41 个，这应该能在今年恢复约 96% 的破产前租金。</p>
</div><p>On top of all that, higher interest rates have increased the company's cost of capital. Its share price currently sits more than 35% below its pre-pandemic peak, which is why it offers such a high dividend yield of 7.5%, even though its dividend is much lower than before the pandemic. Given that high yield and higher borrowing costs, it's difficult for the REIT to make accretive acquisitions funded by issuing additional equity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，较高的利率增加了公司的资本成本。其股价目前比疫情前的高峰低超过 35%，这也是其提供 7.5% 高分红收益率的原因，尽管其分红远低于疫情前的水平。考虑到如此高的收益率和更高的借款成本，该 REIT 很难通过发行额外股本进行增值收购。</p>
</div><h2>From a headwind to a tailwind</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从逆风转为顺风</h2>
</div><p>EPR Properties' higher cost of capital has limited its ability to grow in recent years to a level it can fund with internally generated free cash flow after paying dividends, capital recycling proceeds, and borrowings on its credit facility. For example, EPR Properties funded $269.4 million of new investments last year and is on pace to invest $225 million to $275 million this year. This investment rate is enough to deliver 3% to 4% annual growth in its funds from operations (FFO) per share. This pace also supports dividend growth in a similar range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EPR 房地产的高资本成本限制了其近年来的增长能力，无法达到其可以通过支付分红、资本回收收益和信用额度借款所产生的内部自由现金流来资助的水平。例如，EPR 房地产去年资助了 2.694 亿美元的新投资，并计划在今年投资 2.25 亿到 2.75 亿美元。这一投资率足以实现其每股运营资金（FFO）3% 到 4% 的年增长。这一速度也支持类似范围的分红增长。</p>
</div><p>Given its cost of capital constraints, the REIT plans to continue limiting its growth in the near term to investments it can fund with internally generated cash and borrowings on its credit facility, which currently has only $169 million outstanding on the $1 billion facility. It's very disciplined right now, primarily focusing on high-return development and redevelopment projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于其资本成本的限制，该 REIT 计划在短期内继续限制其增长，仅投资于可以通过内部产生的现金和信用额度借款来资助的项目，目前在 10 亿美元的信用额度中仅有 1.69 亿美元未偿还。它现在非常谨慎，主要专注于高回报的开发和再开发项目。</p>
</div><p>However, falling interest rates should help reduce its cost of capital. Lower rates would decrease its borrowing costs and should lift its stock price. That should make it easier for the company to fund additional accretive deals in the future. For example, in 2019, the REIT invested $794.7 million into new property investments. Meanwhile, it initially expected to spend $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in 2020 on new investments, including an anticipated $1 billion gaming venue acquisition it had secured, funded partly by $882 million in non-core asset sales, primarily educational properties, in 2019. Those deals would have enabled the REIT to continue growing its dividend, which was at a much higher level than it is today following its post-pandemic reset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，利率下降应该有助于降低其资本成本。较低的利率将减少其借款成本，并应该提升其股价。这将使公司更容易在未来资助额外的增值交易。例如，在 2019 年，该 REIT 投资了 7.947 亿美元用于新的物业投资。同时，它最初预计在 2020 年将在新投资上花费 16 亿到 18 亿美元，包括一项预计为 10 亿美元的游戏场所收购，该收购部分由 2019 年出售的 882 百万美元的非核心资产（主要是教育物业）资助。这些交易将使该 REIT 能够继续增长其分红，而其分红在疫情后的重置后远低于之前的水平。</p>
</div><h2>Strong total return potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>强劲的总回报潜力</h2>
</div><p>EPR Properties currently offers an appealing total return potential despite its cost of capital headwinds. With a dividend yield above 7.5% and its cash flow and payout growing by 3% to 4% per year, the REIT should generate double-digit total returns from here. That assumes its stock price only rises in line with its earnings growth rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临资本成本的逆风，EPR 房地产目前仍提供了吸引人的总回报潜力。其分红收益率超过 7.5%，现金流和支付每年增长 3% 到 4%，该 REIT 应该能够从这里产生双位数的总回报。这假设其股价仅与其盈利增长率保持一致。</p>
</div><p>However, it could be an even bigger winner with additional rate cuts. They would help lower its cost of capital by reducing borrowing costs. Its stock price should also rise as real estate values increase. That catalyst would also enable the REIT to ramp up its investment volume and grow its FFO and dividend even faster in the future, further enhancing its total return potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果进一步降息，它可能会成为更大的赢家。这将通过降低借款成本来帮助降低其资本成本。随着房地产价值的增加，其股价也应该上涨。这一催化剂还将使该 REIT 能够增加投资量，并在未来更快地增长其 FFO 和分红，进一步增强其总回报潜力。</p>
</div>

If the Fed Keeps Cutting Interest Rates, This Stock Could Be a Winner

- EPR Properties 是一家专注于体验性房地产的 REIT，面临高利率和疫情影响。  
- 随着美联储降息，EPR 的资本成本将降低，可能提升股价和投资能力。  
- 该 REIT 预计将实现每年 3% 至 4% 的现金流和股息增长，具备良好的总回报潜力。

如果美联储继续降息，这只股票可能会成为大赢家