<p>谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL 0.88%) (GOOG 0.70%) 的股票在今年早些时候出现了上涨。该股从去年 12 月的 52 周低点 127.90 美元上涨至 7 月的 191.75 美元高点。</p>
<p>但在 8 月，联邦法院裁定该公司经营业务的方式——特别是与谷歌搜索相关的方式，法院认为这构成了垄断——违反了反垄断法，Alphabet 的股票暴跌。在美国司法部（DOJ）于 11 月 20 日呼吁进行一系列可能会显著改变谷歌运营的变更后，股票在恢复过程中再次下跌。</p>
<p>在其最新股价下跌之后，Alphabet 现在值得购买吗？回答这个问题需要分析司法部提议变更的影响。</p>
<h2>谷歌搜索主导地位的终结？</h2>
<p>支持对 Alphabet 进行反垄断裁定的一个关键因素是其向其他科技公司如 <strong>Apple</strong> 支付费用，以使谷歌成为其设备上的默认搜索引擎。这些交易帮助谷歌积累并保持了 90% 的在线搜索市场份额。</p>
<p>司法部 11 月 20 日的提案是法院在确定将对 Alphabet 施加何种处罚过程的一部分。司法部希望看到谷歌终止对第三方的支付。</p>
<p>然而，即使发生这种情况，可能对 Alphabet 的底线影响不大。这是因为它从第三方获得的大部分收入又流回这些合作伙伴。</p>
<p>终止此类交易可能导致谷歌失去部分搜索市场份额——以及一些收入——但从长远来看，这不太可能对 Alphabet 的业务产生实质性影响。</p>
<p>我不认为消费者会因为谷歌不再是他们设备上的默认搜索引擎而停止使用谷歌。他们可以简单地选择下载谷歌的搜索应用，这正是许多人已经在做的。仅在 7 月，谷歌搜索应用就被下载了超过 1100 万次。</p>
<h2>对 Alphabet 业务的更大威胁</h2>
<p>对投资者来说，更令人担忧的是，除了结束第三方支付外，司法部还希望 Alphabet 剥离其 Chrome 浏览器和 Android 移动操作系统。这两者在各自领域中占据主导地位。</p>
<p>截至 8 月，Chrome 在浏览器市场的份额为 65%。苹果的 Safari 以 18% 的份额位居第二。同时，Android 是全球领先的移动操作系统，第二季度的市场份额为 72%。</p>
<p>失去任何一项业务都可能对 Alphabet 造成重大打击。这两者都是其谷歌服务部门的一部分，该部门在第三季度的收入为 765 亿美元，占其 883 亿美元总收入的比例。Alphabet 将在 12 月提交反提案以避免分拆，案件将持续到 2025 年。</p>
<p>但这些销售实际发生的可能性有多大？一个类似的反垄断案件可能提供一些见解。1998 年，司法部对 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 赢得了一场重大诉讼。</p>
<p>当时，这家科技巨头与互联网服务提供商达成协议，优先支持其 Internet Explorer 浏览器而非竞争对手。微软被命令拆分其业务，但成功上诉并达成和解。在此后的几十年里，微软的股票飙升。</p>
<p>如果 Alphabet 能够取得类似的结果，它在长期内有望表现良好。在第三季度，该公司发布了强劲的业绩。其收入同比增长 15%，达到 883 亿美元，而净收入从去年同期的 197 亿美元上升至 263 亿美元。其自由现金流为 176 亿美元，轻松覆盖季度的 25 亿美元股息支付，同时留有充足的现金用于业务增长。</p>
<h2>评估是否购买 Alphabet 股票</h2>
<p>Alphabet 对其业务的投资是其未来的关键。它正在大力投资人工智能，这有潜力推动多年的收入增长。该公司的云计算业务在第三季度的收入增长了 35%，达到 114 亿美元。</p>
<p>也就是说，针对 Alphabet 的另一项反垄断案件的法院裁决仍在等待中，这次针对其数字广告业务。影响是巨大的：Alphabet 在第三季度的 883 亿美元收入中，有 659 亿美元来自广告。预计明年才会对此事作出裁决。</p>
<p>在这些重大法院案件未解决且 Alphabet 的未来悬而未决的情况下，如果你想等到尘埃落定再决定投资，那是有道理的。但你可能需要等一段时间。Alphabet 无疑会对任何不利的法院裁决提出上诉，因此针对它的反垄断案件可能需要数年才能解决，公司的首席执行官 Sundar Pichai 表示。</p>
<p>但如果你有较强的风险承受能力，现在是购买 Alphabet 股票的好时机。由于股票被打压，Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）低于竞争对手微软和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2e8622d13437327039df7a13c25a09c0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2e8622d13437327039df7a13c25a09c0.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>市盈率告诉你投资者愿意为公司每一美元的收益支付多少。Alphabet 相对于其竞争对手较低的市盈率表明其股票更具价值。</p>
<p>如果你愿意长期持有 Alphabet 股票，那么考虑到其合理的市盈率和强劲的业务，现在是购买股票的好时机。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>Alphabet（谷歌）的股票因反垄断裁决而波动，尤其是在美国司法部提出可能改变其运营的提案后，股价大幅下跌。美国司法部寻求结束谷歌的第三方支付，并可能剥离其主导市场的 Chrome 浏览器和 Android 操作系统。尽管面临这些挑战，Alphabet 在第三季度的收入同比增长了 15%，这得益于人工智能和云计算的强劲表现。投资者可能会考虑在反垄断案件的解决之前再进行投资，因为结果可能会对公司的未来产生重大影响</p>

<p>Shares of Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL 0.88%) (GOOG 0.70%) were on an upswing earlier this year. The stock rose from a 52-week low of $127.90 last December to hit a high of $191.75 in July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL 0.88%) (GOOG 0.70%) 的股票在今年早些时候出现了上涨。该股从去年 12 月的 52 周低点 127.90 美元上涨至 7 月的 191.75 美元高点。</p>
</div><p>But in August, a federal court ruled that the way the company was conducting its business -- particularly in relation to Google Search, which it concluded was a monopoly -- violated antitrust laws, and Alphabet shares plunged. The stock was making a recovery when it fell again after the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) on Nov. 20 called for a series of changes that could dramatically alter Google's operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 8 月，联邦法院裁定该公司经营业务的方式——特别是与谷歌搜索相关的方式，法院认为这构成了垄断——违反了反垄断法，Alphabet 的股票暴跌。在美国司法部（DOJ）于 11 月 20 日呼吁进行一系列可能会显著改变谷歌运营的变更后，股票在恢复过程中再次下跌。</p>
</div><p>In the wake of its latest share price drop, is Alphabet now a buy? Answering that question requires unpacking the implications of the DOJ's proposed changes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其最新股价下跌之后，Alphabet 现在值得购买吗？回答这个问题需要分析司法部提议变更的影响。</p>
</div><h2>An end to Google's search dominance?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>谷歌搜索主导地位的终结？</h2>
</div><p>One key factor that supported the antitrust finding against Alphabet was its strategy of paying other tech companies such as <strong>Apple</strong> to make Google the default search engine on their devices. These deals have helped Google amass and keep a 90% share of the online search market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支持对 Alphabet 进行反垄断裁定的一个关键因素是其向其他科技公司如 <strong>Apple</strong> 支付费用，以使谷歌成为其设备上的默认搜索引擎。这些交易帮助谷歌积累并保持了 90% 的在线搜索市场份额。</p>
</div><p>The Justice Department's Nov. 20 proposal is part of the process as the court works to determine what penalties it will impose on Alphabet. An end to Google's third-party payments is one outcome DOJ would like to see.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>司法部 11 月 20 日的提案是法院在确定将对 Alphabet 施加何种处罚过程的一部分。司法部希望看到谷歌终止对第三方的支付。</p>
</div><p>However, even if that were to happen, it might not have a big impact on Alphabet's bottom line. That's because most of the revenue it generates from third parties flows back to these partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，即使发生这种情况，可能对 Alphabet 的底线影响不大。这是因为它从第三方获得的大部分收入又流回这些合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>An end to such deals could lead to Google losing some portion of the search market -- and some revenue -- but otherwise, it would be unlikely to affect Alphabet's business substantially over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>终止此类交易可能导致谷歌失去部分搜索市场份额——以及一些收入——但从长远来看，这不太可能对 Alphabet 的业务产生实质性影响。</p>
</div><p>I don't believe consumers generally will stop using Google because it's no longer the default on their device. They could simply choose to download Google's search app, which is what many are already doing. The Google search app was downloaded more than 11 million times in July alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不认为消费者会因为谷歌不再是他们设备上的默认搜索引擎而停止使用谷歌。他们可以简单地选择下载谷歌的搜索应用，这正是许多人已经在做的。仅在 7 月，谷歌搜索应用就被下载了超过 1100 万次。</p>
</div><h2>The bigger threat to Alphabet's business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 Alphabet 业务的更大威胁</h2>
</div><p>What's more concerning for investors is that, in addition to ending third-party payments, the DOJ wants Alphabet to divest itself of both its Chrome browser and Android mobile operating system. Both dominate their respective spaces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对投资者来说，更令人担忧的是，除了结束第三方支付外，司法部还希望 Alphabet 剥离其 Chrome 浏览器和 Android 移动操作系统。这两者在各自领域中占据主导地位。</p>
</div><p>Chrome's share of the browser market stood at 65% in August. Apple's Safari was a distant second with an 18% share. Meanwhile, Android is the world's leading mobile operating system with a 72% share as of the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 8 月，Chrome 在浏览器市场的份额为 65%。苹果的 Safari 以 18% 的份额位居第二。同时，Android 是全球领先的移动操作系统，第二季度的市场份额为 72%。</p>
</div><p>Losing either business could be a significant blow to Alphabet. Both are part of its Google services segment, which comprised $76.5 billion of its $88.3 billion in Q3 revenue. Alphabet will file a counterproposal in December to avoid a breakup, and the case will continue into 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失去任何一项业务都可能对 Alphabet 造成重大打击。这两者都是其谷歌服务部门的一部分，该部门在第三季度的收入为 765 亿美元，占其 883 亿美元总收入的比例。Alphabet 将在 12 月提交反提案以避免分拆，案件将持续到 2025 年。</p>
</div><p>But how likely are those sales to actually come to pass? A previous antitrust case similar to this one may provide some insight. In 1998, the DOJ won a major suit against <strong>Microsoft</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这些销售实际发生的可能性有多大？一个类似的反垄断案件可能提供一些见解。1998 年，司法部对 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 赢得了一场重大诉讼。</p>
</div><p>At the time, the tech titan had deals with internet service providers to favor its Internet Explorer browser over competitors. Microsoft was ordered to break up its business, but it successfully appealed the decision and reached a settlement. In the decades since then, Microsoft stock has skyrocketed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当时，这家科技巨头与互联网服务提供商达成协议，优先支持其 Internet Explorer 浏览器而非竞争对手。微软被命令拆分其业务，但成功上诉并达成和解。在此后的几十年里，微软的股票飙升。</p>
</div><p>If Alphabet can achieve a similar result, it's poised to do well over the long haul. In Q3, the company put up strong results. Its revenue grew 15% year over year to $88.3 billion, while its net income rose from $19.7 billion in the prior-year period to $26.3 billion. Its free cash flow was $17.6 billion, easily covering dividend payments of $2.5 billion for the quarter while leaving plenty of cash to put back into growing its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Alphabet 能够取得类似的结果，它在长期内有望表现良好。在第三季度，该公司发布了强劲的业绩。其收入同比增长 15%，达到 883 亿美元，而净收入从去年同期的 197 亿美元上升至 263 亿美元。其自由现金流为 176 亿美元，轻松覆盖季度的 25 亿美元股息支付，同时留有充足的现金用于业务增长。</p>
</div><h2>Evaluating whether to buy Alphabet stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>评估是否购买 Alphabet 股票</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet's investments in its business are key to its future. It's investing heavily in artificial intelligence, which has the potential to power years of revenue growth. The company's burgeoning cloud computing business saw revenue rise 35% in Q3 to $11.4 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 对其业务的投资是其未来的关键。它正在大力投资人工智能，这有潜力推动多年的收入增长。该公司的云计算业务在第三季度的收入增长了 35%，达到 114 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>That said, a court decision is still pending another antitrust case against Alphabet, this one targeting its digital advertising business. The implications are substantial: Alphabet generated $65.9 billion of its $88.3 billion in Q3 revenue from advertising. No ruling on that matter is expected until next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，针对 Alphabet 的另一项反垄断案件的法院裁决仍在等待中，这次针对其数字广告业务。影响是巨大的：Alphabet 在第三季度的 883 亿美元收入中，有 659 亿美元来自广告。预计明年才会对此事作出裁决。</p>
</div><p>With these major court cases unresolved and Alphabet's future hanging in the balance, it would make sense if you want to wait until the dust settles before deciding to invest. But you may have to wait a while. Alphabet will doubtless appeal any unfavorable court ruling, so the antitrust cases against it could take years to resolve, according to the company's CEO Sundar Pichai.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些重大法院案件未解决且 Alphabet 的未来悬而未决的情况下，如果你想等到尘埃落定再决定投资，那是有道理的。但你可能需要等一段时间。Alphabet 无疑会对任何不利的法院裁决提出上诉，因此针对它的反垄断案件可能需要数年才能解决，公司的首席执行官 Sundar Pichai 表示。</p>
</div><p>But if you have a strong risk tolerance, now would be a good time to buy Alphabet shares. Because the stock is beaten down, Alphabet's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is lower than rivals Microsoft and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你有较强的风险承受能力，现在是购买 Alphabet 股票的好时机。由于股票被打压，Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）低于竞争对手微软和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2e8622d13437327039df7a13c25a09c0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2e8622d13437327039df7a13c25a09c0.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The P/E ratio tells you how much investors are willing to pay for a dollar's worth of a company's earnings. Alphabet's lower P/E multiple relative to its competition indicates that its shares are a better value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率告诉你投资者愿意为公司每一美元的收益支付多少。Alphabet 相对于其竞争对手较低的市盈率表明其股票更具价值。</p>
</div><p>If you're willing to hold Alphabet stock for the long term, then given its reasonable P/E ratio and strong business, now would be a good time to pick up shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你愿意长期持有 Alphabet 股票，那么考虑到其合理的市盈率和强劲的业务，现在是购买股票的好时机。</p>
</div>

Is Alphabet Stock a Buy Now?

- Alphabet 股价因反垄断裁决大幅下跌，面临重大业务变动。  
- 美国司法部提议结束第三方支付，可能影响其搜索市场份额。  
- 尽管面临挑战，Alphabet 仍在人工智能和云计算等领域投资，未来增长潜力大。

现在是购买谷歌-A 股票的好时机吗？