<p>iPhone 制造商 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.94%）长期以来一直是全球最有价值的股票之一。</p>
<p>它在 2011 年超越几家石油巨头，登上了榜首，自那时以来一直未曾跌出前三名。苹果并不总是处于领先地位，偶尔会被其他科技巨头如 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.66%）或 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 2.20%）超越一段时间，但它从未远离榜首。截止到 11 月 25 日，苹果以 3.54 万亿美元的市值重新回到了王座。</p>
<p>我并不是说 iPhone 会过时，从而导致苹果的股票在未来十年内跌出排名。然而，我确实可以想象一些目前较小的公司在大约 10 年后会变得比库比蒂诺的佼佼者更有价值。继续阅读，看看我为什么预计 <strong>谷歌</strong>（GOOG 0.70%）（GOOGL 0.88%）和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 3.18%）会逐渐夺走苹果的市值王冠。</p>
<h2>为什么苹果可能会失去市场王冠</h2>
<p>首先，我必须假设苹果创纪录的股票涨幅在未来几年会放缓。否则，亚马逊和谷歌将很难追赶上来。毕竟，他们起步时就落后于当前的领导者：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>科技巨头</th>
<th>市值</th>
<th>5 年市值变化</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>苹果</td>
<td>3.54 万亿美元</td>
<td>203%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>亚马逊</td>
<td>2.10 万亿美元</td>
<td>145%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>谷歌</td>
<td>2.03 万亿美元</td>
<td>130%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts 和 Finviz，2024 年 11 月 25 日。</p>
<p>苹果并不是在谷物盒子里找到其领先的市场地位。尽管 iPhone 和 iPad 的销售出现下滑，但公司在近年来仍保持了坚实的硬件销售基础，并伴随着软件和服务收入的飙升。这三者自 2020 年以来保持得相当接近，但苹果似乎总能找到回升的办法。</p>
<p>我略显悲观的观点是，苹果正在耗尽真正创新的想法。我知道，你以前听过这些——iPad 只是没有电话服务的更大 iPhone，盈利丰厚的苹果生态系统对客户不利，高价格并不总是反映出更优越的产品，等等。苹果的反对者们多年来一直在说这些，但猜猜谁仍然是世界上最有价值的公司？</p>
<p>尽管如此，苹果最近的表现更多的是失误而非成功。苹果 Vision Pro 虚拟现实头戴设备从未找到市场，并且据报道在不到一年的时间内就被停产。最新一轮的产品发布基本上只是稍微更快的 iPhone、MacBook 和 iPad，内存也有所增加。只有时间能证明备受推崇的苹果智能人工智能（AI）功能集是否会有所不同。无论如何，苹果并没有引领进入生成 AI 时代的潮流。</p>
<p>抱歉如果我让你觉得无聊，老生常谈的苹果批评似乎比以往更有效。而缺乏令人兴奋的创新是我在这里的主要观点。</p>
<p>所以我不会感到惊讶，如果苹果的火箭引擎很快就会缺乏超越市场的燃料。公司当然有预算和工程人才来证明我错了——但结果在于实际表现。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的创新推动其增长</h2>
<p>为什么亚马逊在未来十年会大幅超越苹果？当前领导者所缺乏的创新在亚马逊这里却是源源不断的。</p>
<p>最初作为一个简单（但当时具有开创性）的在线书店，亚马逊已经成长为北美电子商务的主导者。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云计算平台也开创了新局面，18 年后仍然是行业的明确领导者。该公司还建立了一个在许多方面超越 <strong>联邦快递</strong> 和 <strong>UPS</strong> 的运输网络，在 AI 流行之前就实现了仓库自动化，并将 Alexa 驱动的数字助手带入数百万家庭。这还不是完整的列表，只是我随口想到的一些这家杰出公司所引入的最明显的商业革命。</p>
<p>亚马逊的创新也没有减缓。该公司在每个转折点都寻求新的独特优势。这种态度应该会在长期内推动股票上涨，可能在几年内超过苹果的市值。</p>
<h2>谷歌的巧妙战略</h2>
<p>这是另一个不可阻挡的创新者。谷歌几乎完全推动着 <strong>谷歌</strong> 部门，后者在全球在线搜索和广告市场中处于领先地位。该部门还包括安卓移动设备系列，凭借庞大的设备制造合作伙伴网络，全球市场份额达到 70%。哦，还有 YouTube，全球最受欢迎的数字视频平台，观看时长超过行业巨头 <strong>Netflix</strong>。</p>
<p>这些业务（以及更多）在技术上都是谷歌部门的一部分。这对于大多数科技巨头来说已经足够好，但谷歌想要更多。如果在线搜索和广告有一天永远过时——我相信总有一天会的——谷歌希望有另一项业务来推动整个公司向前发展。</p>
<p>早期的竞争者包括医学研究、光纤互联网服务提供商、自驾出租车车队，当然还有大量基于 AI 的服务。我在上一段中跳过了谷歌云平台，但那也是一个在 AI 时代发挥作用的谷歌品牌业务。</p>
<p>技术驱动的海洋变化总是会在每隔一段时间重新塑造全球消费市场。在 AI 和智能手机之前，有个人电脑和录像带。这个列表还在继续，可能超越了尼安德特人。从长远来看，进步是无法阻止的，但真正的赢家会知道如何在不同的市场中保持相关性。这正是谷歌的目标，而苹果似乎在这一领域落后。</p>
<p>所以当你查看 2034 年（查看笔记）最大的公司时，我预计谷歌和亚马逊将永久超越苹果。再次强调，苹果可能会让我大错特错，我也希望看到这家科技巨头有一天重新点燃其黯淡的创新火焰。在那之前，我更愿意拥有谷歌和谷歌的股票。</p>
<p>(FDX -0.71%)(UPS -1.88%)(NFLX 0.81%)</p>

亚马逊

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

苹果

<p>这篇文章预测，Alphabet 和亚马逊可能在未来十年超越苹果的市值。苹果目前的市值为 2.54 万亿美元，由于创新放缓和产品销售疲软，面临挑战。相比之下，亚马逊在电子商务和云计算方面的持续创新，以及 Alphabet 在在线搜索和广告领域的主导地位，使它们具备潜在的增长空间。作者指出，苹果最近推出的产品缺乏新鲜感，这可能会阻碍其市场领导地位</p>

<p>iPhone maker <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.94%) has been one of the world's most valuable stocks for a long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 制造商 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.94%）长期以来一直是全球最有价值的股票之一。</p>
</div><p>It rose above several oil giants to the top spot in 2011 and hasn't dropped out of the Top 3 since then. Apple isn't always the top dog, occasionally passed by fellow tech giants like <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.66%) or <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 2.20%) for a while, but it never strays far from the top spot. And it's back on the throne as of this writing with a $3.54 trillion market cap on November 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在 2011 年超越几家石油巨头，登上了榜首，自那时以来一直未曾跌出前三名。苹果并不总是处于领先地位，偶尔会被其他科技巨头如 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.66%）或 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 2.20%）超越一段时间，但它从未远离榜首。截止到 11 月 25 日，苹果以 3.54 万亿美元的市值重新回到了王座。</p>
</div><p>I'm not saying that the iPhone will go out of style and send Apple's stock tumbling down the rankings over the next decade. However, I could definitely imagine a couple of currently smaller names becoming more valuable than Cupertino's finest in 10 years or so. Read on to see why I expect <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.70%)(GOOGL 0.88%) and <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 3.18%) to wrest away Apple's market cap crown over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我并不是说 iPhone 会过时，从而导致苹果的股票在未来十年内跌出排名。然而，我确实可以想象一些目前较小的公司在大约 10 年后会变得比库比蒂诺的佼佼者更有价值。继续阅读，看看我为什么预计 <strong>谷歌</strong>（GOOG 0.70%）（GOOGL 0.88%）和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 3.18%）会逐渐夺走苹果的市值王冠。</p>
</div><h2>Why Apple might lose its market crown</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么苹果可能会失去市场王冠</h2>
</div><p>First of all, I have to assume that Apple's record-setting stock gains will slow down in the coming years. Otherwise, Amazon and Alphabet would have a hard time catching up. They are starting several steps behind the current leader, after all:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我必须假设苹果创纪录的股票涨幅在未来几年会放缓。否则，亚马逊和谷歌将很难追赶上来。毕竟，他们起步时就落后于当前的领导者：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Tech Giant</th>
<th>Market Cap</th>
<th>5-year Market Cap Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Apple</td>
<td>$3.54 trillion</td>
<td>203%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon</td>
<td>$2.10 trillion</td>
<td>145%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alphabet</td>
<td>$2.03 trillion</td>
<td>130%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>科技巨头</th>
<th>市值</th>
<th>5 年市值变化</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>苹果</td>
<td>3.54 万亿美元</td>
<td>203%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>亚马逊</td>
<td>2.10 万亿美元</td>
<td>145%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>谷歌</td>
<td>2.03 万亿美元</td>
<td>130%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data found on YCharts and Finviz, 11/25/24.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts 和 Finviz，2024 年 11 月 25 日。</p>
</div><p>Apple didn't find its leading market position in a cereal box. Despite faltering sales of iPhones and iPads, the company maintained a solid foundation of hardware sales paired with soaring software and service revenues in recent years. This trio has stayed fairly close since 2020, but Apple always seems to find a way back up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果并不是在谷物盒子里找到其领先的市场地位。尽管 iPhone 和 iPad 的销售出现下滑，但公司在近年来仍保持了坚实的硬件销售基础，并伴随着软件和服务收入的飙升。这三者自 2020 年以来保持得相当接近，但苹果似乎总能找到回升的办法。</p>
</div><p>My mildly bearish thesis is that Apple is running out of truly innovative ideas. I know, you've heard it all before -- iPads are just larger iPhones without a phone service, the lucrative Apple ecosystem is bad for the customer, high prices don't always reflect superior products, and so on. Apple bears have been saying this stuff for years, but guess who's still the most valuable company in the world?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我略显悲观的观点是，苹果正在耗尽真正创新的想法。我知道，你以前听过这些——iPad 只是没有电话服务的更大 iPhone，盈利丰厚的苹果生态系统对客户不利，高价格并不总是反映出更优越的产品，等等。苹果的反对者们多年来一直在说这些，但猜猜谁仍然是世界上最有价值的公司？</p>
</div><p>Still, Apple has seen more misses than home runs lately. The Apple Vision Pro virtual reality headset never found a market and is reportedly being discontinued after less than a year. The latest round of product introductions essentially featured slightly faster iPhones, MacBooks, and iPads with more memory. Only time will tell whether the highly touted Apple Intelligence set of artificial intelligence (AI) features will make a difference. Either way, Apple didn't lead the charge into the generative AI era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，苹果最近的表现更多的是失误而非成功。苹果 Vision Pro 虚拟现实头戴设备从未找到市场，并且据报道在不到一年的时间内就被停产。最新一轮的产品发布基本上只是稍微更快的 iPhone、MacBook 和 iPad，内存也有所增加。只有时间能证明备受推崇的苹果智能人工智能（AI）功能集是否会有所不同。无论如何，苹果并没有引领进入生成 AI 时代的潮流。</p>
</div><p>Sorry if I'm boring you to sleep with age-old Apple criticisms. They seem more valid than ever, though. And a lack of exciting innovation is my main point here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>抱歉如果我让你觉得无聊，老生常谈的苹果批评似乎比以往更有效。而缺乏令人兴奋的创新是我在这里的主要观点。</p>
</div><p>So I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple's rocket engines run low on market-beating fuel relatively soon. The company certainly has the budget and engineering talent to prove me wrong -- the proof is in the fruit-flavored pudding, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以我不会感到惊讶，如果苹果的火箭引擎很快就会缺乏超越市场的燃料。公司当然有预算和工程人才来证明我错了——但结果在于实际表现。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's innovation drives its growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的创新推动其增长</h2>
</div><p>Why should Amazon outperform Apple by a wide margin in the next decade? The innovation that's missing from the current leader is in abundant supply at Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么亚马逊在未来十年会大幅超越苹果？当前领导者所缺乏的创新在亚马逊这里却是源源不断的。</p>
</div><p>What started as a simple (but groundbreaking at the time) online bookstore has grown to dominate e-commerce in North America. The Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing platform also broke new ground and remains the clear industry leaders 18 years later. The company has also built a shipping network that outshines <strong>FedEx</strong> and <strong>UPS</strong> in many ways, automated its warehouses before AI was cool, and brought Alexa-driven digital assistants into millions of homes. That's not a complete list, either. It just a few of the most obvious business revolutions this remarkable company has introduced, off the top of my head.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初作为一个简单（但当时具有开创性）的在线书店，亚马逊已经成长为北美电子商务的主导者。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云计算平台也开创了新局面，18 年后仍然是行业的明确领导者。该公司还建立了一个在许多方面超越 <strong>联邦快递</strong> 和 <strong>UPS</strong> 的运输网络，在 AI 流行之前就实现了仓库自动化，并将 Alexa 驱动的数字助手带入数百万家庭。这还不是完整的列表，只是我随口想到的一些这家杰出公司所引入的最明显的商业革命。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's innovation isn't slowing down, either. The company seeks fresh and unique advantages at every turn. This attitude should keep the stock rising in the long run, probably passing Apple's market value in a few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的创新也没有减缓。该公司在每个转折点都寻求新的独特优势。这种态度应该会在长期内推动股票上涨，可能在几年内超过苹果的市值。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's ingenious strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>谷歌的巧妙战略</h2>
</div><p>Here's another unstoppable innovator. Alphabet is still powered almost exclusively by the Google division, which leads the global market for online search and advertising. That segment also accounts for the Android mobile devices family, which holds a global market share of 70% thanks to a huge network of device-building partners. Oh, and don't forget YouTube, the world's most popular digital video platform with more viewing hours than sector giant <strong>Netflix</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是另一个不可阻挡的创新者。谷歌几乎完全推动着 <strong>谷歌</strong> 部门，后者在全球在线搜索和广告市场中处于领先地位。该部门还包括安卓移动设备系列，凭借庞大的设备制造合作伙伴网络，全球市场份额达到 70%。哦，还有 YouTube，全球最受欢迎的数字视频平台，观看时长超过行业巨头 <strong>Netflix</strong>。</p>
</div><p>These operations (and more) are technically part of Alphabet's Google division. That would be good enough for most tech giants, but Alphabet wants more. If and when online search and ads go out of style forever -- and I'm sure they will someday -- Alphabet wants to have another business ready to carry the whole company forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些业务（以及更多）在技术上都是谷歌部门的一部分。这对于大多数科技巨头来说已经足够好，但谷歌想要更多。如果在线搜索和广告有一天永远过时——我相信总有一天会的——谷歌希望有另一项业务来推动整个公司向前发展。</p>
</div><p>Early contenders include medical research, a fiber-optic internet service provider, a fleet of self-driving taxis, and of course a plethora of AI-based services. I skipped over the Google Cloud platform in the last paragraph, but that's another Google-branded business that's pulling its weight in the AI era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早期的竞争者包括医学研究、光纤互联网服务提供商、自驾出租车车队，当然还有大量基于 AI 的服务。我在上一段中跳过了谷歌云平台，但那也是一个在 AI 时代发挥作用的谷歌品牌业务。</p>
</div><p>Technology-driven sea changes have this annoying habit of reshaping the global consumer market every now and then. Before AI and smartphones, there were personal computers and video tapes. The list goes on, probably beyond the Neanderthals. There's just no way to stop progress in the long run, but real winners will know how to stay relevant in a different market. That's what Alphabet is aiming for, and another area where Apple seems to fall short.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术驱动的海洋变化总是会在每隔一段时间重新塑造全球消费市场。在 AI 和智能手机之前，有个人电脑和录像带。这个列表还在继续，可能超越了尼安德特人。从长远来看，进步是无法阻止的，但真正的赢家会知道如何在不同的市场中保持相关性。这正是谷歌的目标，而苹果似乎在这一领域落后。</p>
</div><p>So when you look at the largest companies in (checks notes) 2034, I expect Alphabet and Amazon to have passed Apple for good. Again, Apple could prove me very wrong and I would love to see the tech giant restarting its faded innovative fires someday. Until then, I'd much rather own Alphabet and Google stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以当你查看 2034 年（查看笔记）最大的公司时，我预计谷歌和亚马逊将永久超越苹果。再次强调，苹果可能会让我大错特错，我也希望看到这家科技巨头有一天重新点燃其黯淡的创新火焰。在那之前，我更愿意拥有谷歌和谷歌的股票。</p>
</div><p>(FDX -0.71%)(UPS -1.88%)(NFLX 0.81%)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(FDX -0.71%)(UPS -1.88%)(NFLX 0.81%)</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Apple 10 Years From Now

- 苹果公司在市值上长期位居全球前列，当前市值为 2.54 万亿美元。  
- 预计未来十年，亚马逊和字母表可能超越苹果，因其创新能力强。  
- 苹果面临创新乏力的挑战，可能影响其市场地位。  

预测：10 年后价值将超过苹果的两只股票