<p>根据报道，自驾车将成为即将上任的总统政府在交通部任命官员的优先事项。这可能意味着在未来几年，我们将在全国各地的道路上看到自驾车的激增。</p>
<p>在开发完全自驾车的竞争中，目前有两个明显的领跑者：<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.58%) 和 <strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 0.12%)(GOOGL 0.07%) 的 Waymo。但华尔街只看到其中一家公司股票在未来一年内会上涨。</p>
<ul>
<li>在跟踪特斯拉的 57 位华尔街分析师中，该股票的 12 个月中位数目标价为 265 美元。这比本文撰写时的价格低 24%。</li>
<li>在覆盖谷歌的 66 位分析师中，该股票的 12 个月中位数目标价为 210 美元。这比本文撰写时的价格高 24%。</li>
</ul>
<p>投资者需要了解以下信息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1iZWFyLXBob25lLWJ1eS1zZWxsLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1iZWFyLXBob25lLWJ1eS1zZWxsLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉：采取不同的自驾车策略</h2>
<p>推动特斯拉股票上涨的主要因素是市场对其成功实施 “完全自驾” 系统的预期，并且能够通过简单的软件更新将这一能力推送到每一辆在路上的特斯拉。</p>
<p>该公司在 10 月举行了一次大型活动，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克展示了 Cybercab，一款自驾轿车，以及 Robovan，一款具有高速列车发动机流线型外形的 20 座车辆。马斯克还表示，他预计完全自动驾驶的 Model 3 和 Model Y 将在明年在德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州作为无人驾驶出租车运营，并预计 Cybercabs 将在 “2027 年之前” 投入生产。</p>
<p>特斯拉的策略在短期内使其处于巨大的劣势。由于它销售的是消费车辆，因此无法将竞争对手开发的所有技术应用到其汽车中。具体来说，它没有使用激光雷达，激光雷达可以向各个方向发射光束，收集数据以实时创建发射器周围环境的 3D 地图。马斯克称激光雷达为拐杖。他相信特斯拉可以仅通过摄像头和雷达解决自驾的 “视觉” 问题。如果特斯拉在其汽车中添加激光雷达系统，价格将大幅上涨。</p>
<p>此外，由于特斯拉在全球范围内行驶，因此在德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州预先绘制相对较小的区域以确保特斯拉能够在其中自主驾驶，对业务的推动作用有限。它需要一种更先进的解决方案，能够在每种可想象的条件和情况下做出正确反应，然后才能推出使特斯拉车主能够实现完全自驾的软件更新。</p>
<p>该策略的优势在于特斯拉正在建立一个庞大的用户基础和车辆车队。它已经交付超过 600 万辆汽车。这使其能够收集大量数据。一旦技术准备就绪，只需按下一个按钮，就可以将所有车辆转变为自动驾驶汽车。这应该使其能够迅速赶上。</p>
<p>最看好特斯拉的分析师认为，自动驾驶技术将通过机器人出租车服务为股东释放大量价值。由凯西·伍德领导的 Ark Invest 预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉 63% 到 88% 的收入将来自机器人出租车。并且预计这些机器人出租车将在未来两年内准备就绪。</p>
<p>目前，华尔街大多数人认为这一时间表过于乐观。目前，特斯拉的企业价值与 EBITDA 的倍数超过 80。这是为一只股票支付的巨额溢价。即使股价跌至华尔街的中位数估计 265 美元，其倍数仍将高达约 60——这一水平表明大多数分析师对特斯拉在推出机器人出租车后能够增长车辆销售并赢得市场份额的潜力持极为乐观的态度。但考虑到特斯拉甚至还没有为付费客户提供过一次出租车服务，这是一项巨大的风险。</p>
<h2>Waymo：凭借强大的现金支持赢得竞争</h2>
<p>自驾车公司 Waymo 由谷歌母公司 Alphabet 拥有。这使其能够利用谷歌的资源，包括算法、计算能力，以及最重要的现金。</p>
<p>Waymo 是 Alphabet“其他投资” 部门的一部分，该部门上个季度的总收入为 3.88 亿美元，运营亏损为 11 亿美元。Alphabet 在过去 15 年中向 Waymo 投入了数十亿美元，现在才开始显示出有意义的成果。</p>
<p>但 Waymo 正在快速增长。其打车服务目前在洛杉矶、旧金山、凤凰城和奥斯丁四个市场提供。在 Alphabet 的第三季度财报电话会议上，首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊表示，Waymo 的车辆每周完成 150,000 次乘车，行驶超过 100 万英里。这比 10 月分享的每周 100,000 次乘车的里程碑有所改善，也比 6 月达到的每周 50,000 次乘车的里程碑有所提升。</p>
<p>Waymo 面临的最大挑战是其技术的成本。其当前模型涉及将已经制造的车辆安装自驾技术。这使得其每辆车的成本在某些情况下超过 20 万美元。但如果它继续扩展到新市场并增加打车服务的市场份额，最终可能会找到一家制造商在生产阶段将其技术直接整合到生产车辆中，从而显著降低成本。这可能使 Waymo 在打车服务中获得显著的成本优势，使其更容易获得市场份额并形成良性循环。</p>
<p>与此同时，Alphabet 的核心业务 Google 表现极为出色。它成为人工智能支出的主要受益者，其云平台收入已飙升至每季度超过 100 亿美元。皮查伊表示，将人工智能整合到 Google 搜索中进展顺利，提升了用户的参与度和满意度。人工智能还可能推动广告支出，因为它使市场营销人员更容易创建和测试广告文案及在 Google 各平台上的广告活动。</p>
<p>Waymo 仍然是 Alphabet 业务中的一小部分，但它具有很大的潜力。其最新一轮融资将自动驾驶业务的估值定为 450 亿美元。相比之下，截至目前，Alphabet 的整体市值超过 2 万亿美元。目前，其市盈率仅为预期未来收益的 19 倍。这对于该业务的增长潜力而言，价格极为合理。分析师平均预计，Alphabet 在未来五年将实现 18% 的年化收益增长。在今天的价格下，您不仅获得了一只领先的科技股，还几乎免费获得了领先的自动驾驶汽车公司。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉和谷歌的 Waymo 在自动驾驶汽车竞赛中处于领先地位，但华尔街分析师预测在未来一年内只有谷歌的股票会上涨。特斯拉的股票预计将从当前价格下跌 24%，而谷歌的股票预计将上涨 24%。特斯拉的战略侧重于对其车辆进行软件更新，而 Waymo 则受益于谷歌的资源。尽管特斯拉对机器人出租车的雄心勃勃的计划，分析师对其时间表和高估值仍持怀疑态度，而 Waymo 正在多个市场扩展其打车服务</p>

<p>Self-driving vehicles will be a priority for the incoming presidential administration's appointees at the Department of Transportation, according to reports. That could mean we'll see an explosion of autonomous vehicles on roads across the country over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据报道，自驾车将成为即将上任的总统政府在交通部任命官员的优先事项。这可能意味着在未来几年，我们将在全国各地的道路上看到自驾车的激增。</p>
</div><p>In the race to develop fully self-driving cars, there are two clear front-runners today: <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.58%) and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG 0.12%)(GOOGL 0.07%) Waymo. But Wall Street only sees one of those company's stocks moving higher over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在开发完全自驾车的竞争中，目前有两个明显的领跑者：<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.58%) 和 <strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 0.12%)(GOOGL 0.07%) 的 Waymo。但华尔街只看到其中一家公司股票在未来一年内会上涨。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Among the 57 Wall Street analysts that follow Tesla, the median 12-month price target for the stock is $265. That's 24% lower than its price as of this writing.</li>
<li>Among the 66 analysts covering Alphabet, the median 12-month price target for the stock is $210. That's 24% higher than its price as of this writing.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在跟踪特斯拉的 57 位华尔街分析师中，该股票的 12 个月中位数目标价为 265 美元。这比本文撰写时的价格低 24%。</li>
<li>在覆盖谷歌的 66 位分析师中，该股票的 12 个月中位数目标价为 210 美元。这比本文撰写时的价格高 24%。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Here's what investors need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者需要了解以下信息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1iZWFyLXBob25lLWJ1eS1zZWxsLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799071%2Fgettyimages-bull-bear-phone-buy-sell-stock-chart.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla: Taking a different approach to autonomous vehicles</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉：采取不同的自驾车策略</h2>
</div><p>The big thing that has driven Tesla's stock higher is the expectation that it will successfully implement a &#34;full self-driving&#34; system, and that it will be able to push that capability out to every Tesla on the road with a simple software update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动特斯拉股票上涨的主要因素是市场对其成功实施 “完全自驾” 系统的预期，并且能够通过简单的软件更新将这一能力推送到每一辆在路上的特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>The company held a big event in October at which CEO Elon Musk unveiled the Cybercab, a self-driving coupe, and the Robovan, a 20-seater vehicle with the sleek profile of a high-speed train engine. Musk also said he expects fully autonomous Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will be operating as driverless taxis in Texas and California by next year and anticipates that Cybercabs will go into production &#34;before 2027.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司在 10 月举行了一次大型活动，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克展示了 Cybercab，一款自驾轿车，以及 Robovan，一款具有高速列车发动机流线型外形的 20 座车辆。马斯克还表示，他预计完全自动驾驶的 Model 3 和 Model Y 将在明年在德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州作为无人驾驶出租车运营，并预计 Cybercabs 将在 “2027 年之前” 投入生产。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's strategy puts it at a huge disadvantage in the short term. Since it's selling a consumer vehicle, it can't put all the technology being developed by its competitors into its cars. Specifically, it's not using lidar, which emits light beams in all directions, gathering data that can be used to create 3D maps of the emitter's surroundings in real-time. Musk has called lidar a crutch. He believes Tesla can solve self-driving's &#34;seeing&#34; problems with just cameras and radar. If Tesla added lidar systems to its cars, that would drive their prices way up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的策略在短期内使其处于巨大的劣势。由于它销售的是消费车辆，因此无法将竞争对手开发的所有技术应用到其汽车中。具体来说，它没有使用激光雷达，激光雷达可以向各个方向发射光束，收集数据以实时创建发射器周围环境的 3D 地图。马斯克称激光雷达为拐杖。他相信特斯拉可以仅通过摄像头和雷达解决自驾的 “视觉” 问题。如果特斯拉在其汽车中添加激光雷达系统，价格将大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, since Teslas are driven all over the world, pre-mapping relatively small areas in Texas and California to make it safe for Teslas to drive autonomously within them won't move the needle for the business. It needs a more advanced solution capable of responding correctly across every conceivable condition and situation before it can roll out a software update that makes full self-driving available to Tesla owners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由于特斯拉在全球范围内行驶，因此在德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州预先绘制相对较小的区域以确保特斯拉能够在其中自主驾驶，对业务的推动作用有限。它需要一种更先进的解决方案，能够在每种可想象的条件和情况下做出正确反应，然后才能推出使特斯拉车主能够实现完全自驾的软件更新。</p>
</div><p>The advantage of the strategy is that Tesla is building a sizable user base and fleet of vehicles. It has delivered over 6 million vehicles already. That enables it to collect a lot of data. And with a push of a button, it can turn them all into autonomous vehicles once the technology's ready. That should allow it to catch up quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该策略的优势在于特斯拉正在建立一个庞大的用户基础和车辆车队。它已经交付超过 600 万辆汽车。这使其能够收集大量数据。一旦技术准备就绪，只需按下一个按钮，就可以将所有车辆转变为自动驾驶汽车。这应该使其能够迅速赶上。</p>
</div><p>The most bullish Tesla analysts see autonomous vehicle technology unlocking a ton of value for shareholders through a robotaxi service. Ark Invest, headed by Cathie Wood, predicts that between 63% and 88% of Tesla's revenue will come from robotaxis by 2029. And it expects those robotaxis to be ready to roll within the next two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最看好特斯拉的分析师认为，自动驾驶技术将通过机器人出租车服务为股东释放大量价值。由凯西·伍德领导的 Ark Invest 预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉 63% 到 88% 的收入将来自机器人出租车。并且预计这些机器人出租车将在未来两年内准备就绪。</p>
</div><p>It appears that most of Wall Street views that timeline as overly optimistic. Currently, Tesla trades at an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of more than 80. That's a massive premium to pay for a stock. Even if the stock price fell to Wall Street's median estimate of $265, its multiple would still be high at about 60 -- a level that suggests most analysts are extremely optimistic about the potential for Tesla to grow its vehicle sales and win a substantial share of the market with robotaxis once they launch. But that's a huge risk considering Tesla hasn't even offered a single taxi ride to a paying customer yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，华尔街大多数人认为这一时间表过于乐观。目前，特斯拉的企业价值与 EBITDA 的倍数超过 80。这是为一只股票支付的巨额溢价。即使股价跌至华尔街的中位数估计 265 美元，其倍数仍将高达约 60——这一水平表明大多数分析师对特斯拉在推出机器人出租车后能够增长车辆销售并赢得市场份额的潜力持极为乐观的态度。但考虑到特斯拉甚至还没有为付费客户提供过一次出租车服务，这是一项巨大的风险。</p>
</div><h2>Waymo: Winning the race with a huge cash backer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Waymo：凭借强大的现金支持赢得竞争</h2>
</div><p>Self-driving vehicle company Waymo is owned by Alphabet, the same company that owns Google. That gives it the advantage of being able to tap into Google's resources, including algorithms, computing power, and perhaps most importantly, its cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自驾车公司 Waymo 由谷歌母公司 Alphabet 拥有。这使其能够利用谷歌的资源，包括算法、计算能力，以及最重要的现金。</p>
</div><p>Waymo is part of Alphabet's &#34;other bets&#34; segment, which generated total revenue of $388 million last quarter and an operating loss of $1.1 billion. Alphabet has sunk billions of dollars into Waymo over the last 15-plus years, and it's only just starting to show meaningful results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Waymo 是 Alphabet“其他投资” 部门的一部分，该部门上个季度的总收入为 3.88 亿美元，运营亏损为 11 亿美元。Alphabet 在过去 15 年中向 Waymo 投入了数十亿美元，现在才开始显示出有意义的成果。</p>
</div><p>But Waymo's growing quickly. Its ride-hailing service is now available in four markets: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Austin. During Alphabet's third-quarter earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai said that each week, Waymo's vehicles complete 150,000 rides and drive more than 1 million total miles. That was an improvement from the 100,000 rides per week milestone it shared in October, and the 50,000 rides per week milestone it reached in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Waymo 正在快速增长。其打车服务目前在洛杉矶、旧金山、凤凰城和奥斯丁四个市场提供。在 Alphabet 的第三季度财报电话会议上，首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊表示，Waymo 的车辆每周完成 150,000 次乘车，行驶超过 100 万英里。这比 10 月分享的每周 100,000 次乘车的里程碑有所改善，也比 6 月达到的每周 50,000 次乘车的里程碑有所提升。</p>
</div><p>Waymo's biggest challenge is the cost of its technology. Its current model involves taking already manufactured vehicles and installing its self-driving technology on them. That has put its cost per vehicle at more than $200,000 in some instances. But if it continues to expand into new markets and grow its market share in ride-hailing, it could eventually find a manufacturer to incorporate its technology directly into a production vehicle at the manufacturing stage, significantly reducing its costs. That could give Waymo a meaningful cost advantage in ride-sharing, making it easier for it to take market share and create a virtuous cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Waymo 面临的最大挑战是其技术的成本。其当前模型涉及将已经制造的车辆安装自驾技术。这使得其每辆车的成本在某些情况下超过 20 万美元。但如果它继续扩展到新市场并增加打车服务的市场份额，最终可能会找到一家制造商在生产阶段将其技术直接整合到生产车辆中，从而显著降低成本。这可能使 Waymo 在打车服务中获得显著的成本优势，使其更容易获得市场份额并形成良性循环。</p>
</div><p>In the meantime, Alphabet's core business, Google is performing extremely well. It has been a big beneficiary of artificial intelligence spending, as its cloud platform revenue has ballooned to more than $10 billion per quarter. Pichai says integrating AI into Google Search has gone well, increasing engagement and satisfaction. AI could also drive advertising spending as it makes it easier for marketers to create and test ad copy and campaigns across Google's properties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Alphabet 的核心业务 Google 表现极为出色。它成为人工智能支出的主要受益者，其云平台收入已飙升至每季度超过 100 亿美元。皮查伊表示，将人工智能整合到 Google 搜索中进展顺利，提升了用户的参与度和满意度。人工智能还可能推动广告支出，因为它使市场营销人员更容易创建和测试广告文案及在 Google 各平台上的广告活动。</p>
</div><p>Waymo remains a small part of Alphabet's business, but it holds a lot of potential. Its latest funding round valued the self-driving business at $45 billion. By comparison, Alphabet overall is worth over $2 trillion as of this writing. Currently, it trades for just 19 times forward expected earnings. That's an incredible price relative to the growth potential of the business. Analysts on average expect Alphabet to deliver annualized earnings growth of 18% over the next five years. At today's price, you're not only getting a leading technology stock, you're getting the leading autonomous vehicle company practically for free.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Waymo 仍然是 Alphabet 业务中的一小部分，但它具有很大的潜力。其最新一轮融资将自动驾驶业务的估值定为 450 亿美元。相比之下，截至目前，Alphabet 的整体市值超过 2 万亿美元。目前，其市盈率仅为预期未来收益的 19 倍。这对于该业务的增长潜力而言，价格极为合理。分析师平均预计，Alphabet 在未来五年将实现 18% 的年化收益增长。在今天的价格下，您不仅获得了一只领先的科技股，还几乎免费获得了领先的自动驾驶汽车公司。</p>
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Tesla Stock vs. Alphabet Stock: Wall Street Only Thinks 1 Will Head Higher From Here

- 自驾车将成为新政府交通部任命者的优先事项。  
- 特斯拉和 Waymo 是当前自动驾驶汽车的两大领先者。  
- 特斯拉面临短期劣势，而 Waymo 在市场扩展中快速增长。

特斯拉股票与谷歌股票：华尔街认为只有一个会从此走高