<p>银行股可能是美联储降息的最大受益者之一，预计这种降息将至少持续到未来几年。它们还可能受益于即将上任的总统政府带来的监管环境放松和较低的企业税率。</p>
<p>然而，目前看起来特别有吸引力的一家公司是 <strong>Capital One Financial</strong>（COF -0.08%），该公司以其信用卡业务而闻名。以下是我认为它可能是现在最佳银行股票的原因。</p>
<h2>一家高盈利的银行，估值吸引人</h2>
<p>正如你可能知道的，Capital One 专注于信用卡贷款。其未偿贷款余额中大约一半来自信用卡。</p>
<p>信用卡业务的高利率特性使得 Capital One 成为一家异常盈利的银行。它的净利差超过 7%，而大多数美国大型银行的净利差仅在 3% 左右。Capital One 的效率比率远优于同行，且在疫情后激增的坏账率正在改善。</p>
<p>尽管该股距离 52 周高点仅有 5% 的差距，但 Capital One 显然没有 2024 年初那么便宜，但股价上涨是有原因的。利率下降的环境可能成为该银行的催化剂，许多投资者对即将收购 <strong>Discover Financial Services</strong>（DFS -0.03%）感到兴奋，我将对此进行讨论。</p>
<p>然而，以仅 1.16 倍的账面价值和不到 13 倍的未来收益预期估值，Capital One 显著低于其同行。例如，<strong>美国银行</strong> 的市净率为 1.35，而 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的市净率超过其账面价值的两倍。</p>
<p>公平地说，这主要是因为 Capital One 在信用卡业务上的集中带来的风险增加。但如果你相信（就像我一样）美国经济在未来几年将保持强劲，那么该股可能是个便宜货。</p>
<h2>未来有很多有趣的可能性</h2>
<p>Capital One 在 2 月份宣布计划以全股票交易收购竞争对手 Discover，这可能比市场给予的认可要大得多。</p>
<p>首先，显而易见的好处：合并后的 Capital One 和 Discover 将拥有庞大的信用卡业务。Capital One 大约有 1 亿信用卡客户，而 Discover 的客户甚至更多。此外，这两家银行提供许多互补而非重叠的产品。Discover 的信用卡通常是现金返还性质，而像 Venture 这样的旅行信用卡则是 Capital One 的主打产品。</p>
<p>此外，还有与 Discover 的封闭式支付网络相关的协同效应。换句话说，Discover 不仅作为贷款方，还处理自己的支付，而不是依赖于 <strong>Visa</strong> 和 <strong>Mastercard</strong> 等支付网络。事实上，Capital One 预计到 2027 年将在费用和网络协同效应方面节省 27 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，如果 Capital One 选择利用该支付网络为其他银行（如 Visa 和 Mastercard 所做的）处理第三方支付，这个支付网络可能会产生更深远的影响。支付处理是一个_高度_盈利的业务，如果 Capital One 决定投资于 Discover 网络的增长，将创造一些有趣的可能性。</p>
<h2>银行的强劲环境</h2>
<p>还有政治环境需要考虑。在特朗普政府的第一任期内，可以明确指出，没有哪个行业比银行更能从政策变化中受益。放松的监管使银行更容易获利（并完成合并），而较低的企业税对银行的好处尤为明显。虽然新政府的具体政策目标尚不清楚，但我们可能正进入银行业另一个强劲增长的环境。</p>

发现金融

<p>银行股有望受益于预计的联邦储备利率下调和有利的监管环境。由于其高盈利能力，Capital One Financial 成为一个强劲的投资选择，其净利差超过 7%。该公司正在收购发现金融，这可能会增强其信用卡业务并创造成本节约。以 1.16 倍的账面价值估值，Capital One 的估值低于美国银行和摩根大通等同行。政治环境也可能有利于银行，可能导致强劲的增长环境</p>

<p>Bank stocks could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, which are widely expected to continue for at least the next couple of years. They could also benefit from the loosening regulatory environment and lower corporate tax rates that could come with the incoming presidential administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行股可能是美联储降息的最大受益者之一，预计这种降息将至少持续到未来几年。它们还可能受益于即将上任的总统政府带来的监管环境放松和较低的企业税率。</p>
</div><p>However, one company that looks especially attractive right now is <strong>Capital One Financial</strong>(COF -0.08%), which is best known for its credit card business. Here's why I think it could be the best bank stock to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前看起来特别有吸引力的一家公司是 <strong>Capital One Financial</strong>（COF -0.08%），该公司以其信用卡业务而闻名。以下是我认为它可能是现在最佳银行股票的原因。</p>
</div><h2>A highly profitable bank at an attractive valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家高盈利的银行，估值吸引人</h2>
</div><p>As you probably know, Capital One specializes in credit card lending. Roughly half of its outstanding loan balances are from credit cards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你可能知道的，Capital One 专注于信用卡贷款。其未偿贷款余额中大约一半来自信用卡。</p>
</div><p>The high-interest nature of the credit card business makes Capital One an exceptionally profitable bank. It has a net interest margin of more than 7%, while most big U.S. banks are happy to generate NIM in the 3% range. Capital One's efficiency ratio is far better than its peers, and charge-off rates are improving after a post-pandemic spike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信用卡业务的高利率特性使得 Capital One 成为一家异常盈利的银行。它的净利差超过 7%，而大多数美国大型银行的净利差仅在 3% 左右。Capital One 的效率比率远优于同行，且在疫情后激增的坏账率正在改善。</p>
</div><p>With the stock just 5% below its 52-week high, Capital One certainly isn't as cheap as it was earlier in 2024, but the stock is higher for a reason. The falling-interest rate environment could be a catalyst for the bank, and many investors are excited about the pending acquisition of <strong>Discover Financial Services</strong>(DFS -0.03%), which I'll discuss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管该股距离 52 周高点仅有 5% 的差距，但 Capital One 显然没有 2024 年初那么便宜，但股价上涨是有原因的。利率下降的环境可能成为该银行的催化剂，许多投资者对即将收购 <strong>Discover Financial Services</strong>（DFS -0.03%）感到兴奋，我将对此进行讨论。</p>
</div><p>However, at a valuation of just 1.16 times book value and less than 13 times forward earnings estimates, Capital One is significantly cheaper than its peers. As an example, <strong>Bank of America</strong> has a price-to-book multiple of 1.35, while <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> trades for more than twice its book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，以仅 1.16 倍的账面价值和不到 13 倍的未来收益预期估值，Capital One 显著低于其同行。例如，<strong>美国银行</strong> 的市净率为 1.35，而 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的市净率超过其账面价值的两倍。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, this is mainly because of the increased risk that comes from Capital One's concentration in the credit card business. But if you believe (as I do) that the U.S. economy will be strong for the next few years, the stock could be a bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，这主要是因为 Capital One 在信用卡业务上的集中带来的风险增加。但如果你相信（就像我一样）美国经济在未来几年将保持强劲，那么该股可能是个便宜货。</p>
</div><h2>Lots of interesting possibilities in the future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来有很多有趣的可能性</h2>
</div><p>Capital One announced its intention to acquire rival Discover in February in an all-stock transaction, and this could be a bigger deal than the market is giving it credit for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Capital One 在 2 月份宣布计划以全股票交易收购竞争对手 Discover，这可能比市场给予的认可要大得多。</p>
</div><p>First, the obvious benefits: A combined Capital One and Discover would have a massive credit card business. Capital One has about 100 million credit card customers, while Discover has even more. Plus, the two banks offer lots of complementary, not overlapping, products. Discover's cards are typically of a cash-back nature, while travel credit cards like Venture are Capital One's bread and butter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，显而易见的好处：合并后的 Capital One 和 Discover 将拥有庞大的信用卡业务。Capital One 大约有 1 亿信用卡客户，而 Discover 的客户甚至更多。此外，这两家银行提供许多互补而非重叠的产品。Discover 的信用卡通常是现金返还性质，而像 Venture 这样的旅行信用卡则是 Capital One 的主打产品。</p>
</div><p>There are also the synergies involved with Discover's closed-loop payment network. In other words, instead of relying on payment networks like <strong>Visa</strong> and <strong>Mastercard</strong>, Discover processes its own payments in addition to acting as the lender. In fact, between expenses and network synergies, Capital One expects $2.7 billion in cost savings by 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，还有与 Discover 的封闭式支付网络相关的协同效应。换句话说，Discover 不仅作为贷款方，还处理自己的支付，而不是依赖于 <strong>Visa</strong> 和 <strong>Mastercard</strong> 等支付网络。事实上，Capital One 预计到 2027 年将在费用和网络协同效应方面节省 27 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>However, the payment network could have deeper implications if Capital One chooses to use it to process payments on a third-party basis for other banks (like Visa and Mastercard do). Payment processing is a <em>highly</em> profitable business, and if Capital One decides to invest in the growth of Discover's network, it creates some interesting possibilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果 Capital One 选择利用该支付网络为其他银行（如 Visa 和 Mastercard 所做的）处理第三方支付，这个支付网络可能会产生更深远的影响。支付处理是一个_高度_盈利的业务，如果 Capital One 决定投资于 Discover 网络的增长，将创造一些有趣的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>A strong environment for banks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>银行的强劲环境</h2>
</div><p>There's also the political environment to consider. During the first Trump administration, there was a solid case to be made that no industry benefited more from policy changes than banks. Looser regulations make it easier for banks to profit (and complete mergers), and lower corporate taxes disproportionately benefit banks. While many of the specific policy goals of the new administration aren't clear yet, we could be entering another strong growth environment for the banking industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有政治环境需要考虑。在特朗普政府的第一任期内，可以明确指出，没有哪个行业比银行更能从政策变化中受益。放松的监管使银行更容易获利（并完成合并），而较低的企业税对银行的好处尤为明显。虽然新政府的具体政策目标尚不清楚，但我们可能正进入银行业另一个强劲增长的环境。</p>
</div>

The Smartest Bank Stock to Invest $500 In Right Now

- 银行股可能受益于美联储的降息和放松监管环境。  
- Capital One Financial 以信用卡业务著称，净利差超过 7%。  
- 收购 Discover 可能带来显著协同效应和成本节约。

目前最值得投资 500 美元的银行股票