<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 2.15%) 在 2024 年的股市表现异常火热，这得益于公司每个季度都在创造惊人的增长，这也解释了市场为何对其 2025 财年第三季度的业绩（截至 10 月 27 日的三个月）充满期待。</p>
<p>这家半导体巨头的报告于 11 月 20 日发布，毫不意外地，得益于对其用于数据中心训练和部署人工智能（AI）模型的图形处理单元（GPU）的强劲需求，业绩超出预期。然而，投资者对公司财报的初步反应似乎是负面的，因为在业绩发布后的两个交易日内，股价下跌。</p>
<p>这是否意味着英伟达的火热上涨遇到了障碍？还是说股价会克服这个小波折，继续向北行进，为投资者在 2025 年带来更多收益？让我们来看看。</p>
<h2>解读英伟达的业绩和指引</h2>
<p>英伟达在 2025 财年第三季度报告了创纪录的季度收入 351 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 94%。这一数字远超公司指引的 325 亿美元，也超过了市场普遍预期的 331.7 亿美元。英伟达的非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）每股收益同比增长 103%，达到 0.81 美元，远高于市场普遍预期的 0.75 美元。</p>
<p>指引更是锦上添花，英伟达预计 2025 财年第四季度的收入将在 375 亿美元左右。这略高于华尔街预期的 370 亿美元。然而，股价在盘前交易中下滑，原因有几个。</p>
<p>首先，英伟达对当前季度的收入指引意味着与去年 221 亿美元的收入相比，预计将实现近 70% 的同比增长。这表明公司的增长相对放缓。其次，公司预计当前季度的非公认会计原则毛利率为 73.5%，而去年同期为 76.7%。</p>
<p>然而，精明的投资者应该考虑超越这两个因素。尽管公司已经实现了巨大的收入基础，但仍在以惊人的速度增长。尽管同比增长 70% 的收入比之前几个季度慢，但考虑到其主要竞争对手 <strong>AMD</strong> 的收入基础较小，增长速度却慢得多，这仍然相当稳健。</p>
<p>此外，毛利压力不会持续太久。英伟达对当前季度的毛利预测下降是由于其下一代 Blackwell AI 芯片的生产 ramp-up。公司希望最大化产出，以满足对这些芯片的巨大需求，这将对毛利产生短期影响。</p>
<p>正如首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯在最新的财报电话会议上所言：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我们当前的重点是提升强劲的需求、增加系统可用性，并为客户提供最佳的配置组合。随着 Blackwell 的生产 ramp-up，我们预计毛利将适度下降到 70% 左右。当完全 ramp-up 时，我们预计 Blackwell 的毛利将在中 70% 左右。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>短期的毛利压力不应持续太久，因为英伟达表示对其 Blackwell 处理器的需求是 “惊人的”，这就是为什么它正在 “加速扩大供应以满足客户的巨大需求……”。</p>
<p>好消息是，英伟达预计将在 2024 年交付比最初预期更多的 Blackwell 芯片。即便如此，公司指出，这些芯片的需求仍将超过供应，并将继续努力在 2025 年提高生产能力。英伟达预计其 Blackwell 的收入将在明年每个季度持续增长，并预计到明年 4 月，基于最新架构的芯片的季度收入将超过上一代 Hopper 架构。</p>
<p>一旦从 Hopper 过渡到 Blackwell 完成，英伟达能够生产足够的这些芯片以跟上其所见证的巨大需求，它应该能够在 2025 年及以后保持健康的收入和盈利增长。</p>
<h2>分析师预计英伟达明年将实现更强劲的增长</h2>
<p>英伟达的 2025 财年第四季度指引表明，它有望以 1235 亿美元的收入结束这一年（将第四季度指引与 2025 财年前九个月的收入相加）。管理层的评论似乎给分析师带来了信心，认为它将能够在明年交出另一份稳健的业绩。</p>
<p>正如图表所示，英伟达 2026 财年的收入预期（将从 2025 年 1 月底开始）有所上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png"/></p>
<p>当前财年英伟达收入预期数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>与此同时，分析师预计公司的每股收益将在 2026 财年再增长 48%，达到 4.27 美元。然而，如果对 Blackwell 处理器的需求保持强劲，并对其收入贡献显著，那么它有很大机会超越华尔街的预期。毕竟，英伟达在过去四个季度中每次都超越了市场普遍预期的盈利预期，持续交出超出预期的增长。</p>
<p>Blackwell 可能帮助它在明年保持这一趋势，这就是为什么投资者仍然可以继续持有英伟达的股票，甚至购买更多。因为英伟达目前的交易市盈率为 33 倍，接近以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数的前瞻市盈率 31.3 倍。如果英伟达能够实现更强劲的盈利增长，而市场决定给予其溢价估值，那么它应该能够在 2025 年实现更多的上涨。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达报告了 2023 财年第三季度创纪录的季度收入 31 亿美元，同比增长 94%，超出预期和估算。尽管业绩强劲，但由于对第四季度预计 70% 的收入增长和毛利率下降的担忧，股价在财报发布后下跌。然而，英伟达的首席财务官表示，毛利率压力是暂时的，因为公司正在加大新款 Blackwell AI 芯片的生产以满足高需求。分析师对英伟达到 2025 年的增长轨迹持乐观态度，2026 财年的收入预估也在上升</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.15%) has been in sizzling form on the stock market in 2024, thanks to the stunning growth the company has been clocking quarter after quarter, which explains why the market was awaiting its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results (for the three months ended Oct. 27) with bated breath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 2.15%) 在 2024 年的股市表现异常火热，这得益于公司每个季度都在创造惊人的增长，这也解释了市场为何对其 2025 财年第三季度的业绩（截至 10 月 27 日的三个月）充满期待。</p>
</div><p>The semiconductor giant's report came out on Nov. 20, and not surprisingly, it delivered stronger-than-expected results on the back of healthy demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) that are being used in data centers to train and deploy artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, the initial investor reaction to the company's earnings seems to be negative, as the stock has headed lower in the two sessions following its results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家半导体巨头的报告于 11 月 20 日发布，毫不意外地，得益于对其用于数据中心训练和部署人工智能（AI）模型的图形处理单元（GPU）的强劲需求，业绩超出预期。然而，投资者对公司财报的初步反应似乎是负面的，因为在业绩发布后的两个交易日内，股价下跌。</p>
</div><p>Does this mean Nvidia's red-hot rally has hit a speed bump? Or will the stock overcome this hiccup and resume its journey north to deliver more gains to investors in 2025? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否意味着英伟达的火热上涨遇到了障碍？还是说股价会克服这个小波折，继续向北行进，为投资者在 2025 年带来更多收益？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><h2>Deciphering Nvidia's results and guidance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>解读英伟达的业绩和指引</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue of $35.1 billion in fiscal Q3, an increase of 94% from the year-ago period. The number was well ahead of the company's guidance of $32.5 billion and also beat consensus estimates of $33.17 billion. Nvidia's non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings increased by 103% from the prior-year period to $0.81 per share, which was well ahead of the $0.75-per-share consensus estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在 2025 财年第三季度报告了创纪录的季度收入 351 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 94%。这一数字远超公司指引的 325 亿美元，也超过了市场普遍预期的 331.7 亿美元。英伟达的非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）每股收益同比增长 103%，达到 0.81 美元，远高于市场普遍预期的 0.75 美元。</p>
</div><p>The guidance was the icing on the cake, as Nvidia expects fiscal Q4 revenue to land at $37.5 billion at the midpoint. That was slightly higher than the $37 billion Wall Street estimate. However, the stock slipped in premarket trading for a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指引更是锦上添花，英伟达预计 2025 财年第四季度的收入将在 375 亿美元左右。这略高于华尔街预期的 370 亿美元。然而，股价在盘前交易中下滑，原因有几个。</p>
</div><p>First, Nvidia's revenue guidance for the current quarter would translate into a year-over-year increase of almost 70% from last year's reading of $22.1 billion. That points toward a relative slowdown in the company's growth. Second, the company has guided for a non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5% for the current quarter. That figure stood at 76.7% in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，英伟达对当前季度的收入指引意味着与去年 221 亿美元的收入相比，预计将实现近 70% 的同比增长。这表明公司的增长相对放缓。其次，公司预计当前季度的非公认会计原则毛利率为 73.5%，而去年同期为 76.7%。</p>
</div><p>Savvy investors, however, should consider looking past both these factors. The company is still growing at a terrific pace, despite having achieved a huge revenue base already. A year-over-year jump of 70% in revenue, though slower than previous quarters, is still quite solid when we consider that its primary rival with a smaller revenue base, <strong>AMD</strong>, has been growing at a much slower pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，精明的投资者应该考虑超越这两个因素。尽管公司已经实现了巨大的收入基础，但仍在以惊人的速度增长。尽管同比增长 70% 的收入比之前几个季度慢，但考虑到其主要竞争对手 <strong>AMD</strong> 的收入基础较小，增长速度却慢得多，这仍然相当稳健。</p>
</div><p>Also, the margin pressure isn't going to last long. The reduced margin Nvidia is forecasting for the current quarter is attributable to the production ramp of its next-generation Blackwell AI chips. The company is looking to maximize output in a bid to meet the huge demand for these chips, and that's going to have a short-term impact on margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，毛利压力不会持续太久。英伟达对当前季度的毛利预测下降是由于其下一代 Blackwell AI 芯片的生产 ramp-up。公司希望最大化产出，以满足对这些芯片的巨大需求，这将对毛利产生短期影响。</p>
</div><p>As CFO Colette Kress remarked on the latest earnings conference call:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯在最新的财报电话会议上所言：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Our current focus is on ramping to strong demand, increasing system availability, and providing the optimal mix of configurations to our customer. As Blackwell ramps, we expect gross margins to moderate to the low 70s. When fully ramp[ed], we expect Blackwell margins to be in the mid-70s.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我们当前的重点是提升强劲的需求、增加系统可用性，并为客户提供最佳的配置组合。随着 Blackwell 的生产 ramp-up，我们预计毛利将适度下降到 70% 左右。当完全 ramp-up 时，我们预计 Blackwell 的毛利将在中 70% 左右。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The short-term margin pressure should not linger for long, as Nvidia says that the demand for its Blackwell processors is &#34;staggering,&#34; which is why it is &#34;racing to scale supply to meet the incredible demand... [from] customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期的毛利压力不应持续太久，因为英伟达表示对其 Blackwell 处理器的需求是 “惊人的”，这就是为什么它正在 “加速扩大供应以满足客户的巨大需求……”。</p>
</div><p>The good part is that Nvidia expects to deliver more Blackwell chips than it was originally expecting in 2024. Even then, the company points out that the demand for these chips will continue to exceed supply, and it will continue to work on improving production in 2025. Nvidia is expecting its Blackwell revenue to continue increasing with each quarter going into next year, and it is expected that the quarterly revenue from the chips made on the latest architecture will exceed the previous generation Hopper architecture in April next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，英伟达预计将在 2024 年交付比最初预期更多的 Blackwell 芯片。即便如此，公司指出，这些芯片的需求仍将超过供应，并将继续努力在 2025 年提高生产能力。英伟达预计其 Blackwell 的收入将在明年每个季度持续增长，并预计到明年 4 月，基于最新架构的芯片的季度收入将超过上一代 Hopper 架构。</p>
</div><p>Once the transition from Hopper to Blackwell is complete and Nvidia manages to produce enough of these chips to catch up to the massive demand it's witnessing, it should be able to maintain the healthy growth in its revenue and earnings in 2025, and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦从 Hopper 过渡到 Blackwell 完成，英伟达能够生产足够的这些芯片以跟上其所见证的巨大需求，它应该能够在 2025 年及以后保持健康的收入和盈利增长。</p>
</div><h2>Analysts are expecting stronger growth from Nvidia next year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析师预计英伟达明年将实现更强劲的增长</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's fiscal Q4 guidance indicates that it is on track to finish the year with $123.5 billion in revenue (adding the Q4 guidance to its revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 2025). Management's comments seem to have given analysts confidence that it will be able to deliver another solid performance next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的 2025 财年第四季度指引表明，它有望以 1235 亿美元的收入结束这一年（将第四季度指引与 2025 财年前九个月的收入相加）。管理层的评论似乎给分析师带来了信心，认为它将能够在明年交出另一份稳健的业绩。</p>
</div><p>As the chart shows, Nvidia's revenue estimates for fiscal 2026 (which will begin from the end of January 2025) have moved up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如图表所示，英伟达 2026 财年的收入预期（将从 2025 年 1 月底开始）有所上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前财年英伟达收入预期数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, analysts are expecting the company's bottom line to grow another 48% in fiscal 2026 to $4.27 per share. However, if demand for Blackwell processors remains strong and contributes significantly to its top line, there is a good chance that it will be able to exceed Wall Street's forecasts. After all, Nvidia has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters by consistently delivering stronger-than-expected growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，分析师预计公司的每股收益将在 2026 财年再增长 48%，达到 4.27 美元。然而，如果对 Blackwell 处理器的需求保持强劲，并对其收入贡献显著，那么它有很大机会超越华尔街的预期。毕竟，英伟达在过去四个季度中每次都超越了市场普遍预期的盈利预期，持续交出超出预期的增长。</p>
</div><p>Blackwell could help it maintain that trend next year, which is why investors can still continue holding shares of Nvidia, or even buy more of it. That's because Nvidia is currently trading at 33 times forward earnings, which is close to the tech-laden <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index's forward earnings multiple of 31.3. If Nvidia manages to deliver stronger earnings growth and the market decides to reward it with a premium valuation, it should be able to deliver more upside in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Blackwell 可能帮助它在明年保持这一趋势，这就是为什么投资者仍然可以继续持有英伟达的股票，甚至购买更多。因为英伟达目前的交易市盈率为 33 倍，接近以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数的前瞻市盈率 31.3 倍。如果英伟达能够实现更强劲的盈利增长，而市场决定给予其溢价估值，那么它应该能够在 2025 年实现更多的上涨。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia's Blockbuster Results Be Enough to Send the Stock Higher?

- Nvidia 在 2024 年股市表现强劲，第三季度营收创纪录，增长 94%。  
- 尽管市场对其财报反应负面，但公司预计未来增长仍将强劲。  
- 分析师预测，Nvidia 明年每股收益将增长 48%，并可能超出预期。

英伟达的重磅业绩能否推动股价进一步上涨？