<p><strong>联合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.03%) 仍在艰难时期挣扎。小包裹快递市场产能过剩，压制了定价能力，而疲软的经济促使客户转向更便宜的快递选项。这一切都使得联合包裹面临困难的时期，公司在 2024 年结束时的收益将显著低于管理层年初的预期。如果利率下降，联合包裹可能会成为大赢家。原因如下。</p>
<h2>不仅仅是终端需求</h2>
<p>利率不仅影响联合包裹的终端市场，也影响其商业模式。首席执行官卡罗尔·托梅的任期以她对 “更好而非更大” 运营框架的告诫为特征。</p>
<p>简单来说，这意味着专注于目标交付，而不是追求量的增长。这种方法影响了公司的结构和在终端市场的竞争力。后者是理解联合包裹为何需要降低利率的关键。我稍后会回到这一点。首先，谈谈降低利率的周期性好处。</p>
<h2>降低利率将有助于量的增长</h2>
<p>包裹交付也具有周期性，并且将永远如此。当经济表现良好时，运输的实物商品增多，反之亦然。因此，过去几年经济的疲软对交付量产生了负面影响。不幸的是，交付放缓发生在包裹快递公司为了应对疫情封锁措施带来的激增需求而增加产能之后。</p>
<p>正如管理层在 3 月份的投资者日上所概述的，2024 年美国小包裹市场的日均产能过剩约为 1200 万。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>行业需要时间来消化这种过剩产能，联合包裹等公司正在必要时减少产能。降低利率将刺激商业活动和消费者支出，导致包裹交付量的增长，客户将开始转向更昂贵且更及时的交付选项。</p>
<h2>联合包裹的商业模式也将受益</h2>
<p>回到联合包裹商业模式的问题，可以公平地说，“更好而非更大” 框架在今年受到了挑战。公司继续专注于在特定终端市场推动增长，例如小型和中型企业（SMBs）以及医疗保健等高利润市场。然而，它在 2024 年也承担了相对较低每件收入的交付量。你可以在下面的图表中看到，每件收入持续下降，但交付量再次增长，导致收入增长。</p>
<p>虽然这不是联合包裹理想的情景，并且似乎与 “更好而非更大” 不一致，但市场条件决定了这一点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvdXBzLXVzLWRvbWVzdGljLXBhY2thZ2Utc2VnbWVudC1ncm93dGgteW95LTMucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvdXBzLXVzLWRvbWVzdGljLXBhY2thZ2Utc2VnbWVudC1ncm93dGgteW95LTMucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>数据来源：联合包裹演示文稿。图表由作者提供。</p>
<p>低利率环境将改善整体包裹交付需求，并使联合包裹能够更好地将其业务与长期战略对齐。管理层对终端市场几乎无能为力，而在 2024 年采取的务实方法——承担较低每件收入的交付——在这种情况下是一个净积极因素。</p>
<h2>2025 年的联合包裹</h2>
<p>在 2025 年，随着利率降低，联合包裹应该能够巧妙地回归其核心运营理念，即在目标市场中增长，并希望改善每件收入的增长。</p>
<p>这将是一个积极的发展，因为第三季度的好消息来自于每件成本同比降低了 4.1%。联合包裹不仅在削减成本方面表现出色（公司今年裁员 12,000 人以减少 10 亿美元的成本），而且还在应对 2023 年达成的改善劳动合同所带来的成本增加。</p>
<p>其在 3 月份概述的中期计划呼吁持续投资于自动化和智能设施，以提高网络生产力，使联合包裹能够整合其设施并降低每件成本。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvcmV0aXJlZC1jb3VwbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvcmV0aXJlZC1jb3VwbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>值得购买的股票吗？</h2>
<p>联合包裹在低利率环境中有很多好处：改善定价能力，潜在的每件收入改善，同时每件成本可能得到控制，联合包裹可以重新专注于高利润的交付。这一切都表明，随着公司从过去几年的困难中恢复，明年将实现收入增长和利润扩张的结合。</p>
<p>联合包裹远非完美，且没有保证它会达到全年收益预期。但总体来看，这只股票看起来具有良好的价值，预计 2025 年收益的市盈率为 15.6 倍。</p>

联合包裹

<p>联合包裹目前面临小包裹快递市场产能过剩和经济疲软的挑战，导致 2024 年的盈利预测下调。然而，如果美联储降息，联合包裹可能会受益于商业活动和消费者支出的增加，从而改善快递量和定价能力。该公司专注于在高利润市场的有针对性增长，可能更适应低利率环境，这可能导致 2025 年的收入增长和利润率扩张。尽管存在不确定性，联合包裹的股票在 2025 年预计盈利的 15.6 倍的估值下似乎具有良好的投资价值</p>

<p><strong>UPS</strong>(UPS 0.03%) continues to struggle through a difficult period. The small package delivery market is over capacity, pressuring pricing power at a time when a weak economy is encouraging customers to shift to cheaper delivery options. It all adds up to a difficult period for UPS, and the company will end 2024 with significantly lower earnings than management anticipated at the start of the year. UPS will likely be a big winner if interest rates head lower. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>联合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.03%) 仍在艰难时期挣扎。小包裹快递市场产能过剩，压制了定价能力，而疲软的经济促使客户转向更便宜的快递选项。这一切都使得联合包裹面临困难的时期，公司在 2024 年结束时的收益将显著低于管理层年初的预期。如果利率下降，联合包裹可能会成为大赢家。原因如下。</p>
</div><h2>Not just about end demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不仅仅是终端需求</h2>
</div><p>Interest rates are affecting not only UPS' end markets, but also its business model. CEO Carol Tome's tenure has been characterized by her admonishment of the &#34;better not bigger&#34; operating framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率不仅影响联合包裹的终端市场，也影响其商业模式。首席执行官卡罗尔·托梅的任期以她对 “更好而非更大” 运营框架的告诫为特征。</p>
</div><p>In plain English, this implies focusing on targeted deliveries rather than chasing volume growth. This approach colors the company's structure and competitiveness in its end markets. The latter is the key to understanding why UPS needs lower interest rates. I'll return to that point in a moment. First, a few words on the cyclical benefit of lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，这意味着专注于目标交付，而不是追求量的增长。这种方法影响了公司的结构和在终端市场的竞争力。后者是理解联合包裹为何需要降低利率的关键。我稍后会回到这一点。首先，谈谈降低利率的周期性好处。</p>
</div><h2>Lower rates will help volume growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降低利率将有助于量的增长</h2>
</div><p>Package deliveries have also been cyclical, and they always will be. When the economy is doing well, more physical goods are shipped, and vice versa. As such, the weakness in the economy over the last couple of years has negatively affected delivery volumes. Unfortunately, the delivery slowdown came after the package delivery companies ramped up capacity to align with the burgeoning demand created by pandemic lockdown measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包裹交付也具有周期性，并且将永远如此。当经济表现良好时，运输的实物商品增多，反之亦然。因此，过去几年经济的疲软对交付量产生了负面影响。不幸的是，交付放缓发生在包裹快递公司为了应对疫情封锁措施带来的激增需求而增加产能之后。</p>
</div><p>As management outlined during the investor day in March, the U.S. small package market has an excess capacity of some 12 million in average daily volume in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如管理层在 3 月份的投资者日上所概述的，2024 年美国小包裹市场的日均产能过剩约为 1200 万。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799067%2Fgettyimages-1177117400-1201x801-d21b45d.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>It will take time for the industry to work through that overcapacity, and UPS, among others, is reducing capacity where necessary. Lower rates will spur business activity and consumer spending, leading to growth in package delivery volume, and customers will start switching back to more costly and more timely delivery options in response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业需要时间来消化这种过剩产能，联合包裹等公司正在必要时减少产能。降低利率将刺激商业活动和消费者支出，导致包裹交付量的增长，客户将开始转向更昂贵且更及时的交付选项。</p>
</div><h2>UPS' business model will benefit, too</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>联合包裹的商业模式也将受益</h2>
</div><p>Returning to the point about the UPS business model, it's fair to say that the &#34;better not bigger&#34; framework has been challenged this year. The company continued to focus on driving growth in selected end markets, such as higher-margin markets like small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and healthcare. Still, it's also taken on a significant amount of relatively lower revenue per piece volume of deliveries in 2024. You can see this in the chart below, where revenue per piece continues to decline, but volumes are growing again, leading to revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到联合包裹商业模式的问题，可以公平地说，“更好而非更大” 框架在今年受到了挑战。公司继续专注于在特定终端市场推动增长，例如小型和中型企业（SMBs）以及医疗保健等高利润市场。然而，它在 2024 年也承担了相对较低每件收入的交付量。你可以在下面的图表中看到，每件收入持续下降，但交付量再次增长，导致收入增长。</p>
</div><p>While it's not UPS' ideal scenario and seems inconsistent with &#34;better not bigger,&#34; market conditions dictate it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这不是联合包裹理想的情景，并且似乎与 “更好而非更大” 不一致，但市场条件决定了这一点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvdXBzLXVzLWRvbWVzdGljLXBhY2thZ2Utc2VnbWVudC1ncm93dGgteW95LTMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799067%2Fups-us-domestic-package-segment-growth-yoy-3.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: UPS presentations. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：联合包裹演示文稿。图表由作者提供。</p>
</div><p>A lower-interest-rate environment will improve overall package delivery demand and allow UPS to better align its business with its long-term strategy. There's little management can do about its end markets, and the pragmatic approach taken in 2024 -- by taking on lower revenue per piece deliveries -- is a net positive under the circumstances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低利率环境将改善整体包裹交付需求，并使联合包裹能够更好地将其业务与长期战略对齐。管理层对终端市场几乎无能为力，而在 2024 年采取的务实方法——承担较低每件收入的交付——在这种情况下是一个净积极因素。</p>
</div><h2>UPS in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的联合包裹</h2>
</div><p>With lower interest rates in 2025, UPS should be able to finesse a return to its core operating philosophy of growing in its targeted markets and hopefully improve its revenue per piece growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，随着利率降低，联合包裹应该能够巧妙地回归其核心运营理念，即在目标市场中增长，并希望改善每件收入的增长。</p>
</div><p>That would be a positive development, because the good news from the third quarter came from its cost-per-piece reduction of 4.1% year over year. Not only is UPS doing an excellent job of cutting costs (the company is cutting 12,000 jobs this year to reduce cost by $1 billion) , it's also lapping the increases in costs associated with the improved labor contract agreed in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将是一个积极的发展，因为第三季度的好消息来自于每件成本同比降低了 4.1%。联合包裹不仅在削减成本方面表现出色（公司今年裁员 12,000 人以减少 10 亿美元的成本），而且还在应对 2023 年达成的改善劳动合同所带来的成本增加。</p>
</div><p>Its medium-term plan, outlined in March, calls for ongoing investments in automation and smart facilities to improve network productivity, enabling UPS to consolidate its facilities and reduce cost per piece.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其在 3 月份概述的中期计划呼吁持续投资于自动化和智能设施，以提高网络生产力，使联合包裹能够整合其设施并降低每件成本。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvcmV0aXJlZC1jb3VwbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799067%2Fretired-couple.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A stock to buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>值得购买的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>UPS has a lot to gain from a lower-rate environment: Improved pricing power, a potential improvement in revenue per piece while cost per piece is likely to be controlled, and UPS can return to focusing on higher-margin deliveries. It all speaks to a combination of revenue growth and margin expansion next year as the company recovers from a difficult couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合包裹在低利率环境中有很多好处：改善定价能力，潜在的每件收入改善，同时每件成本可能得到控制，联合包裹可以重新专注于高利润的交付。这一切都表明，随着公司从过去几年的困难中恢复，明年将实现收入增长和利润扩张的结合。</p>
</div><p>UPS is far from perfect, and there's no guarantee it will hit its full-year earnings expectations. But on balance, the stock looks like a good value, trading on 15.6 times estimated 2025 earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合包裹远非完美，且没有保证它会达到全年收益预期。但总体来看，这只股票看起来具有良好的价值，预计 2025 年收益的市盈率为 15.6 倍。</p>
</div>

If the Fed Keeps Cutting Interest Rates, This Stock Could Be a Winner

- UPS 面临小包裹交付市场过剩和经济疲软的挑战。  
- 预计 2024 年收益将显著低于管理层预期。  
- 低利率将促进业务增长，改善 UPS 的定价能力和盈利模式。

如果美联储继续降息，这只股票可能会成为大赢家